Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

... next we wait to see what happens now that bitcoin's monetary inflation rate is less than gold ... and every other money on the planet.

I think we just reached parity levels with gold inflation. Next halving would be half of gold.

Gold is around 3.5k tons per year / 199k supply (197.5 end of year 2019) = 1.76%.
Btc is 328.5k per year / 18.37mn supply = 1.78%

Total above ground gold holdings is not a well-known figure. Some of the Central Bank gold is bogus paper backed by "Deep Storage Gold" receipts, which could be as tenuous as forward sales from miners of gold reserves still in the ground. Private gold stashes are routinely under-reported (or simple lies) to avoid taxes and other unwanted criminal attention. Huge stashes have been lost (and found), 'disappeared' and 'reappeared' in wars, pirate raids etc over the centuries. The agreed upon figure in economics, markets, monetary studies literature going back decades is gold's inflation rate over long terms is very stable around 2.25-2.5%

[JayJuanGee]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HsW7TD1pLiKr6cdT5SpBETIFKF-m-F_x0KvjMHvp-hY/edit#gid=0



Imagine next halving

HODL!
Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5247696.0

.... these numbers are interesting but must remember it is daily snapshotted and we all know how volatile bitcoin price has been, still is. If you take a little close look to figure on the next halving price you'll notice the first halving price ($13) is quite close to single figures. Halving II price ($613) is squarely in the middle of 3 figures and Halving III price ($8,600) is actually quite close to 5 figures, we we're at 5 figures only the other day. So single figures, 3 figures and 5 figures ... 1, 3, 5, ... would be interesting to see the moving average prices at halvings to smooth out some of the slop.

It's possible we could be at 7 figures, or near there by the Halving IV ...

That theory does not seem too plausible, a straight line of appreciation instead of a percentage?

The difference between 1st and 2nd is 51x, and then difference between 2nd & 3rd is 12.5x, and if we were to go to 7 digits, that would be a minimum of 117x.  I am NOT asserting that 117x is not possible for either the peak or that 117x might not happen at sometime during the next 4 years, but still seems a bit much for any kind of logical, reasonable or prudent expectation for the BTC price at the time of the next halvening.

[Jawhead999]

Only 1458 more day for the next halving  


Source: https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

[AlexGR]

... next we wait to see what happens now that bitcoin's monetary inflation rate is less than gold ... and every other money on the planet.

I think we just reached parity levels with gold inflation. Next halving would be half of gold.

Gold is around 3.5k tons per year / 199k supply (197.5 end of year 2019) = 1.76%.
Btc is 328.5k per year / 18.37mn supply = 1.78%

Total above ground gold holdings is not a well-known figure. Some of the Central Bank gold is bogus paper backed by "Deep Storage Gold" receipts, which could be as tenuous as forward sales from miners of gold reserves still in the ground. Private gold stashes are routinely under-reported (or simple lies) to avoid taxes and other unwanted criminal attention. Huge stashes have been lost (and found), 'disappeared' and 'reappeared' in wars, pirate raids etc over the centuries. The agreed upon figure in economics, markets, monetary studies literature going back decades is gold's inflation rate over long terms is very stable around 2.25-2.5%

Yeah I know how it goes. I just used "official" estimates from https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/above-ground-stocks

However there is a huge red warning sign in the bold part:

Total above-ground stocks (end-2019): 197,576 tonnes
Jewellery: 92,947 tonnes, 47.0%
Private investment: 42,619 tonnes, 21.6%
Official Holdings: 33,919 tonnes, 17.2%
Other: 28,090 tonnes, 14.2%
Below ground reserves: 54,000 tonnes

Yet to be mined gold is in the millions of tonnes not just 54k (or ~15 years)... and it will become easier to mine it once AI programmed robotics are sent to mine it in places that humans can not operate efficiently. Whether it's underwater, deep in the earth, near volcanoes, or in freezing and hot places.

And that's only the mechanics of extracting it. AI will also assist heavily in detecting patterns of where gold actually is. These two reasons can lead to a very large supply boom in like 10-20 years.

[bkbirge]

had occasion to re-set up a node, first time I have looked at bitcoin-qt in a while

it is just soooo bad, laggy, doesn't tell you what it is doing, still no option to go in and change your data directory if you lapse and click through that ONE chance at first run

I really can't believe it is still like this.   It really does not inspire confidence.  It is horrible.

We aren't getting any mass adoption if we can't even write a decent GUI for it...ffs...

Not sure the average person would ever have a need to set up a node. I mean I don't need to know detailed intra-bank lending regulations to have a consumer checking account. But I hear ya, the user facing tools generally suck balls, some devs are going to make bank in turning the space more user friendly.

[JayJuanGee]

I dunno guys      I'm losing faith


had occasion to re-set up a node, first time I have looked at bitcoin-qt in a while

it is just soooo bad, laggy, doesn't tell you what it is doing, still no option to go in and change your data directory if you lapse and click through that ONE chance at first run

I really can't believe it is still like this.   It really does not inspire confidence.  It is horrible.

We aren't getting any mass adoption if we can't even write a decent GUI for it...ffs...

Oh my.  Are you in a bad mood today?  

We have had such a great and largely uneventful halvening day.

You are not going to start shilling shitcoins, next.  Are you?

[bitebits]

... next we wait to see what happens now that bitcoin's monetary inflation rate is less than gold ... and every other money on the planet.

I think we just reached parity levels with gold inflation. Next halving would be half of gold.

Gold is around 3.5k tons per year / 199k supply (197.5 end of year 2019) = 1.76%.
Btc is 328.5k per year / 18.37mn supply = 1.78%

Total above ground gold holdings is not a well-known figure. Some of the Central Bank gold is bogus paper backed by "Deep Storage Gold" receipts, which could be as tenuous as forward sales from miners of gold reserves still in the ground. Private gold stashes are routinely under-reported (or simple lies) to avoid taxes and other unwanted criminal attention. Huge stashes have been lost (and found), 'disappeared' and 'reappeared' in wars, pirate raids etc over the centuries. The agreed upon figure in economics, markets, monetary studies literature going back decades is gold's inflation rate over long terms is very stable around 2.25-2.5%

There are currently about 18,375 million bitcoins in circulation. Think I read about four million bitcoins are considered lost, including the estimated one million bitcoins owned by Satoshi that never moved.

That means that there is a real stock of 14,375 million bitcoins. And with a block reward of now 6.25 bitcoins, there are 328,500 new bitcoins mined per year. This puts the inflation of Bitcoin for the next 365 days at around 2.28%.

It took gold thousands of years to get to its current inflation rate, it took Bitcoin only 11 years to match. That is just an incredible fact, and we all know with mathematical certainty what happens in the next four years / 210,000 blocks.

[Icygreen]

I dunno guys      I'm losing faith

We aren't getting any mass adoption if we can't even write a decent GUI for it...ffs...

Patience, the market is working hard to figure it out.

 Making Bitcoin Easy For The Masses with FIO & EDGE | BnkToTheFuture  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xK0oXT3mBdk

[jojo69]

it's been, like, 8 years like this, same goddamned clunky-ass opaque interface

Armory is pretty fucking secure, slow ass release cycle, they at least manage to give you a configuration tab where you can...oh I dunno...CHOOSE A NON DEFAULT LOCATION FOR THE FUCKING 280GB YOU HAVE TO STORE?!?!?

I'm over it

[LUCKMCFLY]

Very good bullish arguments.

PTJ great letter - bullish arguments for bitcon and gold in next inflationary period....

An "Unprecedented Expansion Of Every Form Of Money Unlike Anything Ever Seen" - Paul Tudor Jones' Full "Buy Bitcoin" Letter | Zero Hedge https://zerohedge.com/markets/great-monetary-inflation-ptj-explains-why-bitcoin-will-dominate-gold-stocks-public-trust
#gold #Bitcoin #SPX500

Source: https://twitter.com/fxbryt/status/1259360967416307722

[jojo69]

yeah sorry


I am in a mood


fucking computers man, I'm not sure I trust them with money

[gwaur]

it's been, like, 8 years like this, same goddamned clunky-ass opaque interface

Armory is pretty fucking secure, slow ass release cycle, they at least manage to give you a configuration tab where you can...oh I dunno...CHOOSE A NON DEFAULT LOCATION FOR THE FUCKING 280GB YOU HAVE TO STORE?!?!?

I'm over it

i don't think core is aimed at your average retail user. everybody else can just use -datadir as an argument or in a config file.

[jojo69]

everybody else can just use -datadir as an argument or in a config file.

yeah, that would be great, except at least in this Debian build I got here attempting to open the config file results in the console that qt is running under shitting all over itself

 

[marcus_of_augustus]

everybody else can just use -datadir as an argument or in a config file.

yeah, that would be great, except at least in this Debian build I got here attempting to open the config file results in the console that qt is running under shitting all over itself

 

I wrote a shell script that builds bitcoin, and all it's dependencies, from source ... PM me if you want a copy, should work fine on Debian or most linuxes.

[jojo69]

Thanks for the offer, but I'm pretty confident that it's really a PEBKAC situation.

I'm sure I could fuck THAT up beyond all recognition.

[serveria.com]

Damn guys I only left you for a couple of hours and came back to see you whining about complicated BTC software, $26k ATH in 2024 and discussing gold? WTF? Any bulls left here? 

[serveria.com]

Is this the post-halving depression? 

[LoyceV]

41 minutes later...630001 goes through.

Fees up, (some) miners giving up until hashrate drops or the price goes up? I'm very curious to see how many miners continue.

Wow, yeah 102 sats/byte

Good Start for miners  

If you slow down mining, the supply side crunch is dramatically accelerated, driving up the price...

With 13 blocks in the past hour, it doesn't look like many miners pulled the plug.

[Toxic2040]

Damn guys I only left you for a couple of hours and came back to see you whining about complicated BTC software, $26k ATH in 2024 and discussing gold? WTF? Any bulls left here? 

[machasm]

41 minutes later...630001 goes through.

Fees up, (some) miners giving up until hashrate drops or the price goes up? I'm very curious to see how many miners continue.

Wow, yeah 102 sats/byte

Good Start for miners  

If you slow down mining, the supply side crunch is dramatically accelerated, driving up the price...

With 13 blocks in the past hour, it doesn't look like many miners pulled the plug.

Was thinking the same. Blocks still look to be mined at a similar rate then before the halving.
I was watching one of the live streams hosted by Tone Vays last night and he had a guest on who runs genesis mining and he was saying that miners of large mining groups plan for many scenarios including the halving way in advance. So I was never really worried about the so-called "death spiral".
As long as interest in Bitcoin stays high I can't see it failing.