I think we can agree on that. It has been great swing trading for sellers at 10k. The major resistance was at 10.5k , now it looks like there's another hard wall at 10k.
Perhaps we agree on the approximate price range that we are stuck in, but still for different reasons.
The BTC price has brought us to a kind of confluence, but we still have some differing views of how we got here, what might keep us here and what are the odds of getting out of here (and which way).
Certainly, I don't feel that I am proclaiming any kind of difficulty going in one direction or another, so I am not really going to be surprised by a break out in either direction, even though I do tend to lean a bit towards up and to prescribe, overall, to the various current BTC price prediction models such as stock to flow, four year fractal and s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles to be ongoingly contributing to upwards price pressures on BTC, but I am not wedded that those ongoingly upwards price pressures have to necessarily result in short-term upward BTC price performance, especially when we just had a 150% price appreciation from the $3,850 local bottom that even if that may have been a bit of an overreaction, it still happened to have happened and can reasonably contribute to limitations in terms of how much and how fast king daddy might be able to go up without some testing of resolution and also making sure that the buying support is keeping up with the subsequent price movements.
Of course, from time to time, the BTC price move up might get a bit overheated and the price just cannot be sustained on the short term, but regrouping could still take a week or two or more and sometimes just a few days, and continued upwards ends up being in the cards.
Sure, previously, I heard you paint $10,500 as some kind of difficult obstacle for BTC prices to pass toward the upside, and sure such price point could take a while to surpass, until it isn't. I don't ascribe a whole hell of a lot of any kind of resistance to $10,500 even though I know the further we go up, sometimes there can be difficulties to get past certain points.. at least temporarily.. and maybe $13,880 could be one of those... but maybe not, too.
In mid-March-ish, you also stated that you thought that we might not see $10k for a couple of years, and about 6 weeks later we were playing around with some short-lived supra $10k which seemed to be quite a bit outside of your previous asserted parameters of upwards expectations... so ultimately I tend to view you as maintaining overly pessimistic viewpoints that surely could damage some fence-sitters who might fail to act (buy BTC) because they do not realize that sometimes bitcoin is not going to return to lower prices before resuming up, and these fence sitters should have been either stacking sats all along or at least been a bit more willing to just buy BTC at any price rather than waiting for some lower low that might or might not happen and even if it does happen it might not last long enough to even matter in the whole scheme of things and they would have been just better off to get the fuck in without over thinking the matter and just buying at whatever price rather than waiting for a possible 20% further discount or whatever that might not come.
I would like to think the floor is where you put it, 7200, but there is room for a little more of a drop.
I was not really trying to predict any kind of floor, and I had stated $7,800 in my earlier post... .. so the don't wake me up range for me at that time was $7,800 to $10,200 (and of course, my opinion could change based on subsequent happenings, too... perhaps? perhaps?).
I was merely asserting a BTC price range in which BTC could fairly easily move in the near times that would be within reason in my thinking about the situation, and largely, I would not be getting too exciting
(to the extent that I can contain my lil selfie) until the BTC price either got close to the end of the range or broke outside of the range.
As far as bottom, I am starting to think that BTC HODLers could rest more assured that we won't be seeing too much more sub $6k, but hey, anything can happen, and I realize that.
Anyhow, it seems to me that with the passage of time, that BTC price bottom seems to be moving up and up and up, maybe in late 2018 the BTC bottom would have been considered to be $1,500-ish (but never really even very close to being reached), and then mid 2019 it became $3,500-ish... and then maybe late 2019 to early 2020 it became $5k-ish and maybe even $5,500-ish (and of course we saw that got breached for a few days around March 12), and more recently, the bottom has probably gotten a bit higher to be residing at around $6k-ish.. and continuing to move up... little by little with the passage of time.. but still such bottom could end up getting breached, stop moving up or have to be adjusted back downward because of subsequent events.
It might be helpful to look at it this way : like waiting for all the Covid19 rules to fade away before seeing 5 figures again. I cannot put a time on it !
I doubt that king daddy gives too many shits about corona... but hey, I get what you are saying about macro-dynamics having some effects on bitcoin and liquidation options that might come available to scared peeps, but at the same time, we still have not had any kind of disproving of current and valid btc price prediction models that likely override corona.. until shown otherwise......
So sure, maybe we need to adjust the current btc price prediction models a little bit on their curve.. tweak them down a bit to account for corona... but in the end corona and the money printer go bbbbrrrrrr reaction do not really negate or conflict with the current btc price prediction models as they are in any kind of meaningful ways, so in that sense you seem to be attempting to presume way the fuck too much medium or long term correlation of king daddy to macro systems, which there is little to no evidence of such correlation beyond the wishful thinking of bitcoin naysayers, no coiners and alt coin pumpers, even though there is likely some short term correlation from time to time, but that short-term correlation does not necessarily negate other more important dynamics going on in bitcoin that seem to be captured in its current seemingly valid price prediction models, which again are: 1) stock to flow, 2) Four year fractal, 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles.
So, sure we might get some further drastic BTC price corrections in the upcoming near-term, perhaps, perhaps, based on macro-liquidation situations that end up happening again, but then again, we might not, too.
Bitcoin might go up another 4x and then get a drastic liquidation correction .. so what would that mean in terms of either correlation or doom and gloom for bitcoin, exactly?
Anyhow, the punchline in terms of bitcoin remains similar whether we were in 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019 or our new post corona world... which in essence is that newbies still need to get a fucking position in BTC (if they do not have one) and to continue with their accumulation of btc and assurance that they are comfortable with their BTC allocation levels based on their own personal circumstances, which would include their cashflow, other investment, view of bitcoin as compared with other assets, risk tolerance, timeline, and time, skills and abilities to research, manage, tweak and trade their portfolio from time to time....
So yeah, liquidations might happen in bitcoinlandia, but so fucking what, they might not, too, and I doubt that such liquidations or corrections are going to be any worse than any other asset class out there, since price corrections and liquidations might also happen in bitcoinlandia after bitcoin goes up 4x, 10x or 100x.. but whatever, there is always going to be some spin no matter what happens, too.
Despite all the doom and gloom and supposed limitations of the UPside potential of BTC it has consistently been a best practice to continue to accumulate BTC whether DCA or buying on dips or some combination of that, whether we have corona or no corona and whether we have money printer go bbbbbrrrr or not... so even if the price of king daddy might be flat or ambiguous for a period of time (maybe?), still would be a good time to continue to accumulate BTC in my ongoing thinkenings... that's the punchline.. continue to buy BTC... and accumulate and stack sats in a way that is tailored to your circumstances without going overboard.
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