Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philip2000uk]

the fact that max has mentioned quark coin has pretty much convinced me that he's in the game for the sole purpose pumping and dumping. i'll watch his videos, but fuck him.. i don't think he's some sort of angel.

true, I noticed he follows a pumper on twitter.. https://twitter.com/fontase

Keiser is a pumper allright, no surprise there.

Are you talking about max keiser? what is this twitter? are they manipulating the market?

yes, Max Keiser, I don't follow his twitter.  I doubt Keiser is big enough to sufficiently manipulate "the" market in a huge way, but I nevertheless think he buys before he start going in full-on hype mode, and then sells.  And he probably has enough followers that it might make a difference.

Thanks for explaining, i thought he'd have enough money to not even be bothered about bitcoin but wanted to preach it for the good.  So now i have to look at him as a profiteer and not for the good of bitcoin? 

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[rpietila]

We could not take it down any more (-30% was not enough). I think that the odds for an immediate crash have greatly diminished.

Now it is sideways from here, or up (with the possibility of crash from higher levels).

Turned bull. Ugh.

Have you been trying to induce a crash?

Well, induce is a strong word. I was just - umm - thinking that it would be good for Bitcoin to have a smaller crash from lower levels, compared to a deep one from high. In addition my own position was aligned to profit a little. Then the time seemed right, and indeed there was some action. I could several times sell at the local top and buy back at near bottom. Not to profit on anyone's expense, of course! Far be that from me.    Everyone benefits when the bubble is pricked every so often. "Prick", how did that come to my mind. Ahem...   The operation wishful and feeling-based daytrading ended up making a small gain only, since the buyback target was not reached, it was only a swing here and there and mainly everything was hedged from China anyway since they did not crash much at all. In another thread I said that I made only BTC15, but that is probably a gross understatement like almost everything I say. Mommy told that you should not disclose your true wealth and power (funny to say that to a 5-year old). I have sticked to the advice, although it constantly angers me that teenagers piss on my shoes. When I was a teenager, everyone else in BBS's was max 20 also, so it was more equal. One guy had 18" loudspeakers, he was my idol. But he was 28 and prolly had a job.

EDIT: Or a rich dad. I never asked. Those days we had a respect towards wealthy people. Or maybe I was just shy to approach him...

[Spaceman_Spiff]

the fact that max has mentioned quark coin has pretty much convinced me that he's in the game for the sole purpose pumping and dumping. i'll watch his videos, but fuck him.. i don't think he's some sort of angel.

true, I noticed he follows a pumper on twitter.. https://twitter.com/fontase

Keiser is a pumper allright, no surprise there.

Are you talking about max keiser? what is this twitter? are they manipulating the market?

yes, Max Keiser, I don't follow his twitter.  I doubt Keiser is big enough to sufficiently manipulate "the" market in a huge way, but I nevertheless think he buys before he start going in full-on hype mode, and then sells.  And he probably has enough followers that it might make a difference.

Thanks for explaining, i thought he'd have enough money to not even be bothered about bitcoin but wanted to preach it for the good.  So now i have to look at him as a profiteer and not for the good of bitcoin? 

That is my view yes.  I am pretty darn sure he buys the stuff with his own money.  To what degree he tells himself that he is in it for the right reasons, or whether he truly sees himself as a pumper, that I am not so sure of.  Some people can be very good in deluding themselves with all kinds of rationalisations while taking the route that benefits them the most money-wise.

[Vycid]

Fluid mechanics reminds me of my chemical engineering days.

Levenspiel:

Snake-Eyes Magoo is a man of habit. For instance, his Friday evenings are
all alike-into the joint with his week's salary of $180, steady gambling at
"2-up" for two hours, then home to his family leaving $45 behind. Snake
Eyes's betting pattern is predictable. He always bets in amounts proportional
to his cash at hand, and his losses are also predictable-at a rate
proportional to his cash at hand. This week Snake-Eyes received a raise
in salary, so he played for three hours, but as usual went home with $135.
How much was his raise?

Looks fun... I'm assuming the rate of loss is all that matters here, not the bets size. So we get a differential equation for the rate of loss related to the amount of cash...

dC/dt = -qC where q is some constant.

Integrating we get delta t = -(ln(Cend)-ln(Cstart))/q

Solving q for 2hrs, 2 = (ln(180)-ln(135))/q

q = 0.14384103622

Now 3h,

3 = (ln(Craise)-ln (135))/.14384

Craise = 207.845

207.845 - 180 = $27.845

Was I even close?  

[philip2000uk]

the fact that max has mentioned quark coin has pretty much convinced me that he's in the game for the sole purpose pumping and dumping. i'll watch his videos, but fuck him.. i don't think he's some sort of angel.

true, I noticed he follows a pumper on twitter.. https://twitter.com/fontase

Keiser is a pumper allright, no surprise there.

Are you talking about max keiser? what is this twitter? are they manipulating the market?

yes, Max Keiser, I don't follow his twitter.  I doubt Keiser is big enough to sufficiently manipulate "the" market in a huge way, but I nevertheless think he buys before he start going in full-on hype mode, and then sells.  And he probably has enough followers that it might make a difference.

Thanks for explaining, i thought he'd have enough money to not even be bothered about bitcoin but wanted to preach it for the good.  So now i have to look at him as a profiteer and not for the good of bitcoin? 

That is my view yes.  I am pretty darn sure he buys the stuff with his own money.  To what degree he tells himself that he is in it for the right reasons, or whether he truly sees himself as a pumper, that I am not so sure of.  Some people can be very good in deluding themselves with all kinds of rationalisations while taking the route that benefits them the most money-wise.

So should we still be supporting bitcoin then?  He's against the banks isn't he? That's the main reason i liked him but now i'm confused.  I guess bitcoin can't be any worse than the banks

[ChartBuddy]

[Vycid]

the fact that max has mentioned quark coin has pretty much convinced me that he's in the game for the sole purpose pumping and dumping. i'll watch his videos, but fuck him.. i don't think he's some sort of angel.

true, I noticed he follows a pumper on twitter.. https://twitter.com/fontase

Keiser is a pumper allright, no surprise there.

Are you talking about max keiser? what is this twitter? are they manipulating the market?

yes, Max Keiser, I don't follow his twitter.  I doubt Keiser is big enough to sufficiently manipulate "the" market in a huge way, but I nevertheless think he buys before he start going in full-on hype mode, and then sells.  And he probably has enough followers that it might make a difference.

Thanks for explaining, i thought he'd have enough money to not even be bothered about bitcoin but wanted to preach it for the good.  So now i have to look at him as a profiteer and not for the good of bitcoin?  

That is my view yes.  I am pretty darn sure he buys the stuff with his own money.  To what degree he tells himself that he is in it for the right reasons, or whether he truly sees himself as a pumper, that I am not so sure of.  Some people can be very good in deluding themselves with all kinds of rationalisations while taking the route that benefits them the most money-wise.

So should we still be supporting bitcoin then?  He's against the banks isn't he? That's the main reason i liked him but now i'm confused.  I guess bitcoin can't be any worse than the banks

Bitcoin itself is not a pump-and-dump, only the self-serving copycats like quarkcoin are. If they were intended to be honest competition they'd be mined fairly.

As rpietila shows us, even the biggest players have trouble with Bitcoin manipulation these days.

That burgeoning stability is an extremely good sign for its future as a currency - a future quarkcoin lacks.

[hannesnaude]

So should we still be supporting bitcoin then?  He's against the banks isn't he? That's the main reason i liked him but now i'm confused.  I guess bitcoin can't be any worse than the banks

You should learn to make up your own mind. Be suspicious of any attempts by others to guide your actions (including this post). Do your research, choose your course independently. None of us know the future, and your opinion is just as valid as anyone else's (assuming you've done your research). So whether Max Keiser is indeed a profiteer or not, should be irrelevant.

[macsga]

Looks fun... I'm assuming the rate of loss is all that matters here, not the bets size. So we get a differential equation for the rate of loss related to the amount of cash...

dC/dt = -qC where q is some constant.

Integrating we get delta t = -(ln(Cend)-ln(Cstart))/q

Solving q for 2hrs, 2 = (ln(180)-ln(135))/q

q = 0.14384103622

Now 3h,

3 = (ln(Craise)-ln (135))/.14384

Craise = 207.845

207.845 - 180 = $27.845

Was I even close?  

I'd try with 3 Dt's
- one for 15m period
- one for 30m period
- one for 60m period

Then I'd solve the same equation and see what happens...
What do you think it means?
Is it linear?

[philip2000uk]

the fact that max has mentioned quark coin has pretty much convinced me that he's in the game for the sole purpose pumping and dumping. i'll watch his videos, but fuck him.. i don't think he's some sort of angel.

true, I noticed he follows a pumper on twitter.. https://twitter.com/fontase

Keiser is a pumper allright, no surprise there.

Are you talking about max keiser? what is this twitter? are they manipulating the market?

yes, Max Keiser, I don't follow his twitter.  I doubt Keiser is big enough to sufficiently manipulate "the" market in a huge way, but I nevertheless think he buys before he start going in full-on hype mode, and then sells.  And he probably has enough followers that it might make a difference.

Thanks for explaining, i thought he'd have enough money to not even be bothered about bitcoin but wanted to preach it for the good.  So now i have to look at him as a profiteer and not for the good of bitcoin?  

That is my view yes.  I am pretty darn sure he buys the stuff with his own money.  To what degree he tells himself that he is in it for the right reasons, or whether he truly sees himself as a pumper, that I am not so sure of.  Some people can be very good in deluding themselves with all kinds of rationalisations while taking the route that benefits them the most money-wise.

So should we still be supporting bitcoin then?  He's against the banks isn't he? That's the main reason i liked him but now i'm confused.  I guess bitcoin can't be any worse than the banks

Bitcoin itself is not a pump-and-dump, only the self-serving copycats like quarkcoin are. If they were intended to be honest competition they'd be mined fairly.

As rpietila shows us, even the biggest players have trouble with Bitcoin manipulation these days.

That burgeoning stability is an extremely good sign for its future as a currency - a future quarkcoin lacks.

That's good for bitcoin then I'm just wandering why keiser is a follower of a dumping program.

[Vycid]

Looks fun... I'm assuming the rate of loss is all that matters here, not the bets size. So we get a differential equation for the rate of loss related to the amount of cash...

dC/dt = -qC where q is some constant.

Integrating we get delta t = -(ln(Cend)-ln(Cstart))/q

Solving q for 2hrs, 2 = (ln(180)-ln(135))/q

q = 0.14384103622

Now 3h,

3 = (ln(Craise)-ln (135))/.14384

Craise = 207.845

207.845 - 180 = $27.845

Was I even close?  

I'd try with 3 Dt's
- one for 15m period
- one for 30m period
- one for 60m period

Then I'd solve the same equation and see what happens...
What do you think it means?
Is it linear?

I feel like I'm back in undergrad  

Unfortunately I'm on my phone so somebody else is gonna have to finish this problem.

In other news: Gox says WHEEEEEEE!

Edit: I think I can speculate on the answer. With dt limiting to zero you get a maximum for the raise, decreasing to a minimum possible raise for a 60min dt period.

In other words it's not possible to establish a single value for Mr. Magoo's raise, just a function dependent on the number of bets he placed.

Or, perhaps the constant bets size permits you to establish the period...

Damn, now I'm going to have to do this properly when I get some pen and paper. Nerdsniped.

[wachtwoord]

That's good for bitcoin then I'm just wandering why keiser is a follower of a dumping program.

To make fast money? Is there any other reason to buy and advertize Quarkcoin?

[farfiman]

That's good for bitcoin then I'm just wandering why keiser is a follower of a dumping program.

To make fast money? Is there any other reason to buy and advertize Quarkcoin?

The guy probably has many many thousands of bitcoins worth millions of dollars.
Why pump and dump an altcoin and maybe look stupid ( yeah I know' it's max keiser... but still)

[macsga]

Edit: I think I can speculate on the answer. With dt limiting to zero you get a maximum for the raise, decreasing to a minimum possible raise for a 60min dt period.

In other words it's not possible to establish a single value for Mr. Magoo's raise, just a function dependent on the number of bets he placed.

Or, perhaps the constant bets size permits you to establish the period...

Damn, now I'm going to have to do this properly when I get some pen and paper. Nerdsniped.

Attaboy!!! That's the spirit!
BTW: rpietila must be buying! 

[ChartBuddy]

[bitleif]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460ztgSza1gSMAzm1g50zm2g25zl

I think this chart is pretty interesting, may signal that we're not done correcting yet. Someone smarter than me have any insights?

To me it looks like flat periods at the x10 lines for a few months, then run up to the next x10. Flat at .1, 1, 10, 100, and now flat at 1k. Let it settle for a month or two around 1k, then it'll jump up to the next, at 10k.

Actually another interpretation of the chart I posted isn't bearish at all. We might not even be half way through this bubble before it pops, possibly landing about where we are now or higher. I guess bubbles are easy to spot but very, very hard to time.

[kurious]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460ztgSza1gSMAzm1g50zm2g25zl

I think this chart is pretty interesting, may signal that we're not done correcting yet. Someone smarter than me have any insights?

To me it looks like flat periods at the x10 lines for a few months, then run up to the next x10. Flat at .1, 1, 10, 100, and now flat at 1k. Let it settle for a month or two around 1k, then it'll jump up to the next, at 10k.

Actually another interpretation of the chart I posted isn't bearish at all. We might not even be half way through this bubble before it pops, possibly landing about where we are now or higher. I guess bubbles are easy to spot but very, very hard to time.

With hindsight easy as hell... To foresee the 'right time' exactly?  We'd all be on our own private islands by now.

[ChartBuddy]

[seldon]

her. I guess bubbles are easy to spot but very, very hard to time.

With hindsight easy as hell... To foresee the 'right time' exactly?  We'd all be on our own private islands by now.
[/quote]

Hindsight is a bitch

[gandhibt]

We could not take it down any more (-30% was not enough). I think that the odds for an immediate crash have greatly diminished.

Now it is sideways from here, or up (with the possibility of crash from higher levels).

Turned bull. Ugh.

Have you been trying to induce a crash?

Well, induce is a strong word. I was just - umm - thinking that it would be good for Bitcoin to have a smaller crash from lower levels, compared to a deep one from high. In addition my own position was aligned to profit a little. Then the time seemed right, and indeed there was some action. I could several times sell at the local top and buy back at near bottom. Not to profit on anyone's expense, of course! Far be that from me.    Everyone benefits when the bubble is pricked every so often. "Prick", how did that come to my mind. Ahem...   The operation wishful and feeling-based daytrading ended up making a small gain only, since the buyback target was not reached, it was only a swing here and there and mainly everything was hedged from China anyway since they did not crash much at all. In another thread I said that I made only BTC15, but that is probably a gross understatement like almost everything I say. Mommy told that you should not disclose your true wealth and power (funny to say that to a 5-year old). I have sticked to the advice, although it constantly angers me that teenagers piss on my shoes. When I was a teenager, everyone else in BBS's was max 20 also, so it was more equal. One guy had 18" loudspeakers, he was my idol. But he was 28 and prolly had a job.

EDIT: Or a rich dad. I never asked. Those days we had a respect towards wealthy people. Or maybe I was just shy to approach him...

So let me get this clear:
- You tried to crash the market by talk and by selling, did you pay to hack bitcointalk too?
- Despite your effort price only corrected healthy 30%, which is very bullish

Just like I said. Now ofc there's a possibility that the real attempt to crash the market comes soon after this "turning to bull", but maybe that's not the case now, idk. Nevertheless crashing the market is unlikely to succeed if manipulators doesn't take huge risks and I don't think they are that kind of people (even if rpietila is, hes coins is not enough by themselves).