Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Last of the V8s]

A spanking new banking paradigm has been unveiled



Money needs no longer to keep people in chains.

[1679791395]

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[1679791395]

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[1679791395]

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[philipma1957]

It feels like the calm before a storm, I think we’re going to get a Q4 bullish rally.

It's trying hard to cross $10,500. Good thing is that we are not going under $10k. Even if we go we are bouncing back almost immediately.

We are going to brush past  14000 in under a month.

https://www.nicehash.com/my/miner/....6oHLGnnrVAf1hC3WV2RBXZ2HNs....
CURRENT PROFITABILITY / 24H
0.00457303 BTC
≈ $47.03

This is my gpu daily earning rate. As long as it is over 40 it means btc is underpriced compared to eth.

Every time I post here for the next 30 days I will drag that info from my nicehash account to this thread.

As long as it is higher then 40 (more complex then that but good enough for now)  it means there is extra demand for BTC from nicehash mining.

six hours later:

CURRENT PROFITABILITY / 24H
0.00516597 BTC
≈ $53.31



so demand is still happening for btc  via eth to btc auto vert

[cAPSLOCK]

Just seeing this for the first time.  Damn, I like it.  Though you probably want to research the properties of your washer material carefully, if you want for it to be fire-resistant, etc.  Compare Jameson Lopp’s trials of various seed-storage products.

Most importantly, this requires no Bitcoin-specific hardware purchases that are usually infeasible to make anonymously.  Inexpensive materials available at any hardware store, and maybe even already on-hand in your garage—excellent!


Final edit:  Thinking over those numbers, and the BIP 39 use of a bit of PBKDF2, I am slightly revising down my estimates of how many lost washers you can recover.  I am accustomed to thinking pessimistically from a defender’s perspective, and thus making somewhat liberal assumptions about what a cracker can do.  Whereas I don’t want to dose people with hopium about how many lost seed words they can get back, realistically.  Let’s put it this way:  I would not be surprised if somebody can crack 4 words on high-end home PC hardware in a semi-reasonable time; but if you rely on doing that, you may be in for a lot of pain!

Yeah.  I liked it too and did it.



Using those stamps is pretty hard work on little washers.  I also bought cheap ($10) engraver off ebay that is much easier to use, though not quite as "official" looking.

[Searing]

A spanking new banking paradigm has been unveiled



Money needs no longer to keep people in chains.

J'accuse!

Them's not Bankers! (or I need to bank somewhere else!)

So sad. My view of Bankers would 'brighten' considerably.....indeed!

brad

[Torque]

https://zoom.earth/#view=43.6352,-122.9216,8z/date=2020-09-11,09:40,-7/layers=fires

Looks like half the planet is burning

Looks like the devil's home is brazil  

That's just his summer home. His main residence appears to be Angola/Zambia/Mozambique.

[JayJuanGee]

@nullius you can indeed become rich but after around 200k contracts slippage and stophunting absolutely wreck my strategy so its gonna slow down from there, so i would be in no place to accept anyones money either way lmao.

Here is a case-in-point in which a trader might over play the odds from time to time, or miscalculate the odds, and then instead of being a sure deal, it only takes one out of 100 bets, then all of a sudden all of the profits have been lost, or some variation of that scenario, which ends up being a kind of martingale betting rather than strategic plays that are structured in such a way to always be profitable.  The trader ends up getting greedy.

A more reasonable way to lose all the value would be that each bet is prudent, and the odds are supposed to be something like 7/10 wins and for some reason, the streak will keep hitting on the 3/10 outcome, until the total profits (and maybe even principle) is lost - even if the trader might only be playing 1% each time, after 100 losing bets in a row, the profits have long been removed, and there is only so much principle that is left (bet size keeps getting smaller, smaller and smaller), but if a trader is only betting 1% each time, it will take a whole hell of a long time to completely deplete the trading stash, merely that the trading stash shrinks.

Many traders cannot stick to such a system of betting only 1% per trade when the actual amount keeps shrinking, so they frequently will start to bet larger amounts that does not end up being sustainable... especially on a long losing streak... gravitating into a kind of martingale betting approach, which is NOT sustainable.

Of course, there are some traders who stick to a more sustainable system, and they stack away their profits while keeping their trading stash reasonable, and even they might suffer through vary long losing streaks that cause the size of their bets to keep shrinking and perhaps causing them to question themselves in terms of the amount of profit that is even possible upon a win (because the trading stash had continued to shrink by so much on the long losing streak).

and its not usually actually 5:1 odds, i just gave that as example, in real life itd be much more slower and safer if i was trading with a significant amount of money than what i showed in that challenge thread

You did not show slower and safer in that thread, anyhow, as far as I can remember.  

On several occasions, you did not show your work, either... which surely is problematic if you are trying to get people to become confidence in your abilities to employ a sustainable and profitable approach to BTC trading.

 No, I don’t buy that it will become a “world reserve currency”;

It does not need to be a world reserve currency to be a good investment.

that’s a terribly naïve proposition, whereas it will never be allowed by bankers who can’t control it—bankers who control tens of trillions of dollars in assets, own governments and thus militaries, tanks, ICBMs, and nuclear weapons, start wars at the drop of a hat, topple governments like toys and kill millions of people...

Sure there might be some battles along the way.  They do not control everything now, even though they strive to.  They are never going to control anything, and bitcoin provides an additional tool that removes some of that control (not all of it, but some of it).

 Do you really suppose that their lunch can be eaten by some software on the Internet, which, by the way, they also own and could shut down at any time?

Their lunch does not have to be eaten.

Bitcoin is already successful in providing an additional tool, and it will likely continue to provide additional tools in the future.   It could take 50 or 100 years to pass before we might see real large and meaningful changes (and the vast majority of is will be dead), but we do not need to see all of those changes, because we already have more options because of bitcoin... Thank you, king daddy.

If Bitcoin fails, there is really nothing else to shield us from being crushed into total, inescapable enslavement through the lethal combination of scam fractional-reserve “money”, total financial surveillance, and KYC-everything permission systems.

There's barter.

Bitcoin gives us some freedom of action to strive to obtain more freedom—if we choose to do so.

All other freedoms depend on financial freedom.  For only one example, just try to exercise the freedom of speech if financial censorship and financial surveillance can be used to ensure that you cannot buy even a crust of bread without permission, and you can be physically located at any time.  For only one example.

I mostly agree about these points.

[BobLawblaw]

A spanking new banking paradigm has been unveiled

Money needs no longer to keep people in chains.

My Russian is barely there, but doesn't that verbiage in the back roughly translate to "A bank you can be tied to" ?

[Last of the V8s]

yerp.

all the joeks in replies https://imgur.com/gallery/tXFhL9t

[JayJuanGee]

A spanking new banking paradigm has been unveiled



Money needs no longer to keep people in chains.

J'accuse!

Them's not Bankers! (or I need to bank somewhere else!)

So sad. My view of Bankers would 'brighten' considerably.....indeed!

brad

Surely, those chiquitas seem to fit the definition of booth babes.

JJG finally found someone to have a race with 😝
Good luck brother!

I feel a wee bit outgunned.



Like I am out of my league.

 

[Dabs]

I don’t think that obfuscation is in any way useful to protect you there.  Indeed, it is more likely to frustrate you—after you forget how you obfuscated.  Just rely on keeping the whole thing secret, which it needs to be anyway.

The whole thing should be a secret and stored safely. Buried in your backyard, a fake drain pipe, or even in your usual safe (behind a fake wall, or behind a painting). You should also have multiple backups in different locations, and possibly another one in a location different than where you live or work.

Using steel makes it fireproof (or rather fire resistant), but not rust proof. You'd need stainless or other metals or alloys for that.

People regularly keep books and other important documents very safe, so doing steel washers and nuts and bolts are just fun things. Paper wallet in an envelope or folder, plastic or even something stamped metal would all be fine if stored together where you store other valuables. Some of you guys have gun safes, or just normal "Sentry" branded safes, those are fire resistant and relatively water protected already.

I once used "plausible deniability" in the form of my laptop dual booting. The default boot mode required no password and boots to either freshly installed Linux Mint or some Windows 98 crap (which I'll probably upgrade to Windows 10) and some downloaded free videos, my resume, and assorted bank files and bills. In order to boot to the second partition I needed to enter a password within 30 seconds, otherwise it would boot the first partition.

These days, I just get lazy and don't bother. Anything I need to keep secret I simply do not bring with me on my laptop and access it remotely, securely, from my home server.

I travel with kids, we always skip the lines, even during this pandemic.


To note, I have been intending to buy a hardware wallet, either a trezor or a ledger, yet feel hesistant, after all these years. And one could say I know enough about bitcoin and the possibility of being hacked or losing them and have been around awhile. I'm doing fine without one so far. Yes, I still want to get one, just haven't pulled the trigger.

[JayJuanGee]

It feels like the calm before a storm, I think we’re going to get a Q4 bullish rally.

I do miss those prediction games.
So here is mine:

Q4, 31 Dec 2020, 00.00 UTC, $17651-$17700

I am not going to say that it is not possible, but there is a bit of a problem with any BTC price predictions for the end of the year that are between $17,250 and about $23,500 - that is the deadman's zone.. which just means that we are NOT too likely to spend much time there... so sure, you could end up being correct because we are passing through the deadman's zone and it happens to hit on your numbers.

Personally, I believe the more likely numbers are either below $17,250 or above $23,500 - and personally I think that it would be too optimistic to achieve above $23,500 in just 3.5 months - therefore $14k to $17,250 seem more likely by the end of the year...

Anyhow, just a game of probabilities rather than any kind of certainty, that's for sure.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.  

[Indymoney]

My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.  

Most chances this is going to happen because sometime ago I was feeling this is going to around $15,000 to $17,000 but currently its under pressure so most chances going around $14,000 to $15,000 is sure until end of this year and bonus price is as I mention.

[JayJuanGee]

Who sold at the bottom?

Which one? 🤔🤔

As I type, do we either have a triple or a quadruple bottom, or maybe we have to make up some other kind of visual because these bottoms are starting to blend.

Maybe we have a blended bottom, currently?

It's messy out there boyz... be careful:

My clicking on one of Cryptotourist's earlier links caused me to come across the below Phil_S post (perhaps an overlooked classic) - which surely is a better visualization for what I was attempting to say a few days ago in my above post regarding: 1) so many (blended) bottoms and 2) "being careful" boyz.

All bottoms are behind now, in the rear-view mirror.

[Biodom]

EU developments:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/leak-eu-to-create-superbody-of-watchdogs-to-oversee-digital-currencies/

Interestingly,

The rules also impose the prohibition of granting any interests to holders of these digital assets.

This would cause a huge move of btc into US-based interest-generating custodial accounts (such as blockfi and celsius, maybe even Coinbase/Kraken)

[JayJuanGee]

Edit: Improved syntax.

holy cow.  You are a bot, too? was starting to get lonely around here with gembitz not posting as frequently

It's like you got a software update... 

 

My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.  

I am having some trouble with $13k to $14k, too, in terms of a sticking range.

Our previous local high from 2019 was $13,880, so in order to have any chance of getting stuck in the $13,000s, we would have to go up to $17,250 or maybe even higher first, and then correct back down.  So, I suppose that kind of correction back down into the $13ks and getting stuck there for a while (including the end of the year) is a possibility.

Otherwise, I cannot just see getting stuck in the $13ks on the way up (presuming we go up at some point, soon^tm)... I am not even sure if I can see decent odds of getting stuck in the $12ks, because even that is starting to feel as if it is too close to $13,880, even though currently, I am starting to appreciate that we could, perhaps, get stuck in the $11ks in the coming months (but I am having quite a few doubts that getting stuck could last until the end of the year, given our macro circumstances).  

Call me a stickler.. or just call me a contrarian... always wanting to poke holes in the ideas of other usually nice peeps.      #nohomo

[proudhon]

Looks like we're consolidating upward in a false bull flag formation. High leverage shorting looks very promising from here.

[Toxic2040]

My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.  

+1 WOsMerit

It seemed we would challenge the June 2019 high of $13.88k this year..perhaps even the 2017 ATH.

Then covid-19 happened and all the other bs that 2020 turned into.

It seems to me that these trying times are exactly what Bitcoin was built for..a trustless mechanism to safely store and transmit wealth outside of capricious regime change and unsound monetary policy.

I am fairly certain bitcoin will see a new ATH some day in the not so distant future. Its all dip for me until then. #dyor




4h


D


D

#stronghands

[d_eddie]

I know this is impossible, but I would like to know what Hal Finney would think of the overall Bitcoin situation, exchanges, forks, asics farms, long shorts, bets

Me too.

I know one thing, even though Satoshi thought through a lot of variables and possibilities, I doubt that he/they envisioned bullshit forks persisting and hanging around indefinitely.

Did Finney or Nakamoto ever mention such an event/situation as a market for forks? 2 sMerit to the first finder of a quote.

[bitserve]

I know this is impossible, but I would like to know what Hal Finney would think of the overall Bitcoin situation, exchanges, forks, asics farms, long shorts, bets

Me too.

I know one thing, even though Satoshi thought through a lot of variables and possibilities, I doubt that he/they envisioned bullshit forks persisting and hanging around indefinitely.

Did Finney or Nakamoto ever mention such an event/situation as a market for forks? 2 sMerit to the first finder of a quote.

IIRC, Satoshi only talked about 51% attacks, minority/majority versions of the software, etc... And it is about that where he says only the majority chain would survive making the minority chain become irrelevant. I don't think he really cared or give much thought about the possibility of some people creating a fork no matter if it tried to bank on a similar name, most of the code, or reuse Bitcoin blockchain as an starting point.

So... maybe it is a tricky question/challenge? Will keep reading and see what comes...

There can only be ONE Bitcoin, no matter how many decide to fork from it for whatever reasons.

P.S. About Hal he did talk (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=10666.msg152988#msg152988) about forks replacing the Bitcoin Blockchain ("reboot" it) but even if we could extrapolate some of his thinking to the BCH fork (BSV is a fork from BCH, not from Bitcoin) there is still the difference of adopting previous chain instead of starting from scratch.