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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 7 (8%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.3%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (8%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 12 (13.8%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 20 (23%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 8 (9.2%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (6.9%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.3%)
>$40,000 - 17 (19.5%)
Total Voters: 87

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25645392 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (168 posts by 4 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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September 08, 2020, 06:09:17 PM

That's why I chuckle when people are saying things like "New ATH by this December!" Sorry but, no way. That's not how whale traders work, that's not how this market works. You think the whales would care to run it up during a recession/depression year, when people are massively out of work and don't have any extra money to spend right now? Nope. They will wait until the economy recovers, when people have extra money again. Also, the volume is just not there yet, not even close. The ramp up will take a year or two anyway to get going.

Sure macro factors could have some kind of an affect on bitcoin, but i doubt that bitcoin needs retail to be ready, willing and able to buy bitcoin in order for our next ATH to be reached and exceeded.

Yeah, it's possible that the end of the year might be a bit too soon, but in bitcoinlandia, there can be a bit of relishing in doing the unexpected too, which causes shorts to continue to get rekkt when they continue to get placed, while the BTC price keeps going up.. Are we ready for such a move?  i don't know... but I surely would not be ruling out such a move, merely based on some kind of concern that macro-factors are not ready... People are not ready.. wait bitcoin, wait.... Bitcoin gives no shits about waiting, and small enough players can end up pushing bitcoin up, even if people (retail or whatever) are not ready... In other words, they become ready as they see the price going up from $40k to $100k, and then they start buying, right before the dump (or maybe more PC to call it a correction?). 

Do we end up correcting in the vicinity of $100k or $300k or some other location? and how long does it take to get to the point that correction ends up happening can frequently end up as somewhat surprises, even though such BTC price moves are still within a variety of relatively convincing and already known BTC price prediction models... the specifics are merely probabilities rather than precisions -even if some folks misinterpret them in such precision ways.
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nullius
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September 08, 2020, 06:18:18 PM

I have my doubts about getting stuck in this particular zone for much longer because this price floating around $10k feels a bit uncomfortable (or is the word unsustainable?).. [...]

I know bitcoin likely does not give too many shit about these various macro-factors, but in the short term, seems difficult to sustain any kind of flatness, even if we never know for sure regarding how long are we going to be here in the $10k range.... in bitcoinlandia.

I’ll be a contrarian here.  Partly to play devil’s advocate and pick your brain; this is a mere hypothesis:

$10k is a neat Schelling point:  It is comfortable.  I myself have long taken to thinking of a bitcoin as “more or less worth somewhere around $10k”—or more precisely, I tend to think of a U.S. dollar as currently being worth about 0.0001 BTC, more or less.  It is convenient because I am not a speculator, or even really an investor; my HODLings are my “savings account”, and I think of Bitcoin as money more than as an impliedly non-monetary asset.  How many others think somewhat similarly?  It’s a nice round number; it makes for easy mental calculations when carrying on financial transactions with people who still use dollars as a unit of account (!).

Thereupon, if some market factors are pushing the price up, and others are pushing down, and many people are setting walls of limit orders either just above or just below $10k, then why wouldn’t the price sustain this kind of flatness for awhile?  Is it not to be expected to converge around these major milestones before it eventually diverges?

I do think that the long-term trend is up, way up—just because supply is capped, and demand growth has barely even started toward its long-term potential.  It will be some years before Bitcoin even remotely approaches saturation on the demand side!  (Add to this the necessary compensation for depreciation of the dollar, Euro, etc.)  So, at some point, we will need to break out and go far above $10k.

I also think that too-rapid increases driven by pure speculation are not good.  That is the definition of a bubble.  I do not want another November–December 2017 scenario.  I am not watching the ticker and asking, “When moon?”  I want to see a new ATH driven by increased adoption and usage as money—not by FOMO, irrational exuberance, etc.  I want that, because I want for my bitcoins to have rock-solid fundamental value.  Of course, at this juncture, increased adoption driven by loss of confidence in fiat currencies would not be a bad thing...

Too much speculation also increases volatility, which slows adoption—which detracts from Bitcoin’s fundamental value!

Thus, I don’t see the $10k range as “uncomfortable”.  As long as it has stable support there, I am happy for the time being.



~

Fake news. The true news is bitcoin is crashing.

Why are you accusing me of “fake news” for reminding others of your fake news (and past shitcoin pumpings)?

This is the end guys.
It looks like this is the end of bitcoin.
The true news is bitcoin is crashing.
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September 08, 2020, 07:02:04 PM

OT: Watch the video. More comedy gold.

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1303334057615523840

“The key to this market is Portnoy’s next move”  Cheesy Cheesy You can't make this shit up.

I can't even believe that ol' Jim C. uttered the words "Tesla" and "fundamentals" in the same sentence.  Roll Eyes
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September 08, 2020, 07:05:44 PM



I also think that too-rapid increases driven by pure speculation are not good.  That is the definition of a bubble.  I do not want another November–December 2017 scenario.  I am not watching the ticker and asking, “When moon?”  I want to see a new ATH driven by increased adoption and usage as money—not by FOMO, irrational exuberance, etc. ...

  I think the huge hype and price bubbles help to drive awareness and adoption.  I greatly enjoy the euphoria that comes with it too!  Not so much the back side of the peaks, but that is a lot easier to bear after a few rounds. There is actual data to research on past cycles now, for those that choose to dyor.

The question is, does it follow the usual pattern, or will this time be more influenced by the greater economy?
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September 08, 2020, 07:25:41 PM

BLACKcoin mooning  Kiss  reeeeeee
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September 08, 2020, 07:42:18 PM
Merited by infofront (1), ssmc2 (1), BobLawblaw (1)

The run to ATH has started
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September 08, 2020, 07:49:09 PM

We need to change the poll, its rather embarrassing. Smiley
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September 08, 2020, 07:50:30 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), BobLawblaw (1)

We have gembitz and Proudhon posting. I think we can reasonably assume we're near the bottom. I would need to see r0ach posting to confirm.

Most of us had our asses handed to us in the poll:
 
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September 08, 2020, 07:57:33 PM

You guys better not miss the bounceback. Or you will be picking up the telephone again.
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September 08, 2020, 08:05:36 PM

buy the dip
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September 08, 2020, 08:17:10 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), infofront (1)

Newest Update from Pentarhudi aka Masterluc



"As you can see, $10k level is very important for Bitcoin and was under siege multiple times in the past. From downside... Now the battle is going on from upside. It takes more time than I personally expected, but this doesn't surprise me much when I look backwards.

If Bitcoin hold $10k on weekly basis (i.e. weekly candle will not close below) - it will be a strong ground for further growth. And I'm sure it will.

You can also see blue trend escaping from giant consolidation triangle. As long as price didn't break it down - bullish development is fine. And as long as price is at bottom trend line - my suggestion is to buy."

Like @philipma1957 said buy the dip maybe this is the last time under $10K.
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September 08, 2020, 08:22:13 PM
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Support below $10k strengthening.
Hoping for a bounce.
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September 08, 2020, 08:39:16 PM

https://twitter.com/Beautyon_/status/1303428566592434178?s=20

Quote
This is the inevitable result of SJW, Moral Relativism, Perspective and Nuance Doctrine. There is no truth, and the Scientific Method must be abandoned, in favour of feelings. Everything the modern world was built and relies on is finished if they win.
+thread

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-idea-that-a-scientific-theory-can-be-falsified-is-a-myth/

nope nope nope
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September 08, 2020, 08:46:10 PM

Support below $10k strengthening.
Hoping for a bounce.
Observing @ $10,030
nullius
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September 08, 2020, 08:47:30 PM

We have gembitz and Proudhon posting. I think we can reasonably assume we're near the bottom. I would need to see r0ach posting to confirm.


Did I make it moon yet?

Quote
Cockroach drinking honeydew from rear end of a planthopper (Pyrops connectens). Khao Sok National Park, Thailand. [source]
nullius
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September 08, 2020, 09:03:07 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I also think that too-rapid increases driven by pure speculation are not good.  That is the definition of a bubble.  I do not want another November–December 2017 scenario.  I am not watching the ticker and asking, “When moon?”  I want to see a new ATH driven by increased adoption and usage as money—not by FOMO, irrational exuberance, etc. ...

  I think the huge hype and price bubbles help to drive awareness and adoption.

More than the inevitable, inevitably painful correction drives people away?

First impressions count.  Think of all the people who caught the FOMO get-rich-quick virus in December 2017, and got shorn like the sheep that they are—who lost real money that meant something to them.  Are they ever coming back?  I’m not the first to suggest that that precious bull run set back mass adoption for years.

I greatly enjoy the euphoria that comes with it too!

Those who want euphoria should play with high-volatility altcoins such as TSLA—or better, play at a casino.  You can win or lose a ton of money with either!

Bitcoin is king because it’s boring.  That is to say:  It is reliable.  Core uses solid, well-understood technologies, instead of chasing the latest fad.  Its developers say, “it’s done when it’s done”, not “move fast and break things”.  And as volatile as its market is, it is incomparably less so than most altcoins.

You can in good conscience tell your grandma to buy some Bitcoin.  (Would you tell your grandma to buy into a high-volatility, highly speculative instrument, urge her to enjoy the euphoria, then shrug “DYOR” if she gets burned?)  You can also do business with Bitcoin—I mean, you can do non-Bitcoin business with Bitcoin.  (If a “coin” is not useful for any business other than speculation, it is a Ponzi scheme by definition.)  This means real adoption:  Adoption as money, not as euphoric entertainment and get-rich-quick mania.

Not so much the back side of the peaks, but that is a lot easier to bear after a few rounds. There is actual data to research on past cycles now, for those that choose to dyor.

It’s easy to say “DYOR”.  Hard for the n00b who is stepping into an alien world, taking a risk—and oft as not, getting burned.  Whereas “DYOR” sounds suspiciously like the kinds of excuses tossed out by ICOs, Defi tokens, and other shitcoin scams.  LOL, you lost money believing in us—your fault, sucker!

Bitcoin has real fundamental value, and should be, in addition to a medium of exchange, a reasonably safe store of value.  If that were not so, it would be a Ponzi; and I would dump it pronto.  But to the contrary, I know how many times that I have said with regret, “I wish that I had kept this money in Bitcoin.”  Not because it would have made me rich, but because that would have avoided losses.
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September 08, 2020, 09:11:58 PM

https://mailchi.mp/83fd6ed702f3/martys-bent-september-8th-2020-819

Quote
For those who need a refresher, DLCs allow two or more parties to enter into a smart contract agreement regarding a future event. In the case of Nicolas and Chris, they are betting about the outcome of the US Election this year. However, they could have bet on the price of bitcoin on the same date, the outcome of an NBA game later this week, or the temperature in Boise next Wednesday at noon local time. The two construct multiple transactions that decide where the funds are sent; in this case there is a transaction that sends the funds to Chris and another that sends them to Nicolas depending on the outcome of the election. The movement of funds within the DLC is dependent on a signature from an Oracle that confirms the outcome of the event once it happens. The Oracle has no idea who is using their signature to execute DLCs unless users publicly state that they are. This allows individuals to make bets in private and for anyone who is so inclined to use a particular Oracle's signature. One signature for millions of bets is possible. Making DLCs scalable to the masses.

possibly the first one in the wild
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September 08, 2020, 09:12:09 PM

Now with link to Masterluc post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/KF0wThdz-Regarding-current-market-actions/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_publish
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September 08, 2020, 09:13:39 PM
Last edit: September 08, 2020, 09:42:23 PM by Torque
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https://twitter.com/Beautyon_/status/1303428566592434178?s=20

Quote
This is the inevitable result of SJW, Moral Relativism, Perspective and Nuance Doctrine. There is no truth, and the Scientific Method must be abandoned, in favour of feelings. Everything the modern world was built and relies on is finished if they win.
+thread

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-idea-that-a-scientific-theory-can-be-falsified-is-a-myth/

nope nope nope

Quote
Science studies provide supporters of science with better arguments to combat these critics, by showing that the strength of scientific conclusions arises because credible experts use comprehensive bodies of evidence to arrive at consensus judgments about whether a theory should be retained or rejected in favor of a new one. These consensus judgments are what have enabled the astounding levels of success that have revolutionized our lives for the better. It is the preponderance of evidence that is relevant in making such judgments, not one or even a few results.

I get what this article is trying to say, but it is also somewhat irritating.

I distinctly remember as kid growing up in the 70's, when we would read in school class how the Dinosaurs were all cold-blooded, green/grey, smooth or scaly skin reptiles. Ancestors to modern day reptiles. Period. That was the prevailing scientific theory, and it was in *all* the science books, taken as sworn gospel. It wasn't just treated as science theory, it was treated as science fact. A closed and shut case.

At the time I also read here and there in the news, about a few dissenting scientists (John Ostrom, and especially Robert T. Bakker) who believed that many species of dinosaurs were warm-blooded and ancestrally linked to birds, and even had feathers. These guys were viewed by the major "scientific community" as complete quacks and laughed at, merely because the scant evidence they had at the time paled in comparison to the overwhelming "consensus judgment" evidence to the contrary by the "scientific community". It *was* very compelling evidence; but it was an affront to the status quo.

And guess what? Those guys were proven right. But did they ever really get the credit they truly deserved for being right? Nope.

Did the existing old-school scientists of the time back then suffer anything in terms of their rep/career for being dead wrong? Nope.

In conclusion:
Yes we should always seek the scientific method of 'falsification' as a way of progression.

--and--

No, don't ever believe that the "prevailing theory" of the scientific community is a Rock of Gibraltar that can't be toppled.
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September 08, 2020, 09:14:42 PM

Mark it!
9/12 Closing Price: $10,501-$11,000 🤪
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