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Question: When ATH?
Nov. 2020 - 47 (36.2%)
Dec. 2020 - 43 (33.1%)
Jan. 2021 - 14 (10.8%)
Feb. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
Mar. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
After Mar. 2021 - 16 (12.3%)
Total Voters: 130

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 24650443 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (153 posts by 40 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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September 11, 2020, 08:42:44 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1), d_eddie (1)

It feels like the calm before a storm, I think we’re going to get a Q4 bullish rally.

I do miss those prediction games.
So here is mine:

Q4, 31 Dec 2020, 00.00 UTC, $17651-$17700

I am not going to say that it is not possible, but there is a bit of a problem with any BTC price predictions for the end of the year that are between $17,250 and about $23,500 - that is the deadman's zone.. which just means that we are NOT too likely to spend much time there... so sure, you could end up being correct because we are passing through the deadman's zone and it happens to hit on your numbers.

Personally, I believe the more likely numbers are either below $17,250 or above $23,500 - and personally I think that it would be too optimistic to achieve above $23,500 in just 3.5 months - therefore $14k to $17,250 seem more likely by the end of the year...

Anyhow, just a game of probabilities rather than any kind of certainty, that's for sure.
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September 11, 2020, 08:46:07 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), ivomm (1)

My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.  
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September 11, 2020, 08:55:20 PM

My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.  
Most chances this is going to happen because sometime ago I was feeling this is going to around $15,000 to $17,000 but currently its under pressure so most chances going around $14,000 to $15,000 is sure until end of this year and bonus price is as I mention.
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September 11, 2020, 09:10:05 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

Which one? 🤔🤔

As I type, do we either have a triple or a quadruple bottom, or maybe we have to make up some other kind of visual because these bottoms are starting to blend.

Maybe we have a blended bottom, currently?

It's messy out there boyz... be careful:



My clicking on one of Cryptotourist's earlier links caused me to come across the below Phil_S post (perhaps an overlooked classic) - which surely is a better visualization for what I was attempting to say a few days ago in my above post regarding: 1) so many (blended) bottoms and 2) "being careful" boyz.

All bottoms are behind now, in the rear-view mirror.


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September 11, 2020, 10:10:13 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

EU developments:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/leak-eu-to-create-superbody-of-watchdogs-to-oversee-digital-currencies/

Interestingly,

Quote
The rules also impose the prohibition of granting any interests to holders of these digital assets.

This would cause a huge move of btc into US-based interest-generating custodial accounts (such as blockfi and celsius, maybe even Coinbase/Kraken)
JayJuanGee
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September 12, 2020, 12:05:17 AM
Last edit: September 12, 2020, 12:21:51 AM by JayJuanGee

Edit: Improved syntax.

holy cow.  You are a bot, too? was starting to get lonely around here with gembitz not posting as frequently

It's like you got a software update...  Shocked

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.  

I am having some trouble with $13k to $14k, too, in terms of a sticking range.

Our previous local high from 2019 was $13,880, so in order to have any chance of getting stuck in the $13,000s, we would have to go up to $17,250 or maybe even higher first, and then correct back down.  So, I suppose that kind of correction back down into the $13ks and getting stuck there for a while (including the end of the year) is a possibility.

Otherwise, I cannot just see getting stuck in the $13ks on the way up (presuming we go up at some point, soontm)... I am not even sure if I can see decent odds of getting stuck in the $12ks, because even that is starting to feel as if it is too close to $13,880, even though currently, I am starting to appreciate that we could, perhaps, get stuck in the $11ks in the coming months (but I am having quite a few doubts that getting stuck could last until the end of the year, given our macro circumstances).  

Call me a stickler.. or just call me a contrarian... always wanting to poke holes in the ideas of other usually nice peeps.    Tongue Tongue Tongue  #nohomo
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September 12, 2020, 12:10:28 AM

Looks like we're consolidating upward in a false bull flag formation. High leverage shorting looks very promising from here.
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September 12, 2020, 12:13:19 AM
Merited by philipma1957 (2), JayJuanGee (1)

My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.  

+1 WOsMerit

It seemed we would challenge the June 2019 high of $13.88k this year..perhaps even the 2017 ATH.

Then covid-19 happened and all the other bs that 2020 turned into.

It seems to me that these trying times are exactly what Bitcoin was built for..a trustless mechanism to safely store and transmit wealth outside of capricious regime change and unsound monetary policy.

I am fairly certain bitcoin will see a new ATH some day in the not so distant future. Its all dip for me until then. #dyor




4h


D


D

#stronghands
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September 12, 2020, 01:17:46 AM

I know this is impossible, but I would like to know what Hal Finney would think of the overall Bitcoin situation, exchanges, forks, asics farms, long shorts, bets

Me too.

I know one thing, even though Satoshi thought through a lot of variables and possibilities, I doubt that he/they envisioned bullshit forks persisting and hanging around indefinitely.

Did Finney or Nakamoto ever mention such an event/situation as a market for forks? 2 sMerit to the first finder of a quote.
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September 12, 2020, 02:05:44 AM
Last edit: September 12, 2020, 02:18:04 AM by bitserve
Merited by d_eddie (2)

I know this is impossible, but I would like to know what Hal Finney would think of the overall Bitcoin situation, exchanges, forks, asics farms, long shorts, bets

Me too.

I know one thing, even though Satoshi thought through a lot of variables and possibilities, I doubt that he/they envisioned bullshit forks persisting and hanging around indefinitely.

Did Finney or Nakamoto ever mention such an event/situation as a market for forks? 2 sMerit to the first finder of a quote.

IIRC, Satoshi only talked about 51% attacks, minority/majority versions of the software, etc... And it is about that where he says only the majority chain would survive making the minority chain become irrelevant. I don't think he really cared or give much thought about the possibility of some people creating a fork no matter if it tried to bank on a similar name, most of the code, or reuse Bitcoin blockchain as an starting point.

So... maybe it is a tricky question/challenge? Will keep reading and see what comes...

There can only be ONE Bitcoin, no matter how many decide to fork from it for whatever reasons.

P.S. About Hal he did talk (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=10666.msg152988#msg152988) about forks replacing the Bitcoin Blockchain ("reboot" it) but even if we could extrapolate some of his thinking to the BCH fork (BSV is a fork from BCH, not from Bitcoin) there is still the difference of adopting previous chain instead of starting from scratch.

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September 12, 2020, 04:06:00 AM

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September 12, 2020, 04:21:48 AM

the late night wall report

2 degrees to port and reef the mainsail mister. Keep her to the leeward side and send second watch aloft. That is all.

#dyor
1h



tickles and purring done
4h

#stronghands
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September 12, 2020, 05:52:37 AM

[...] bankers [...] Do you really suppose that their lunch can be eaten by some software on the Internet, which, by the way, they also own and could shut down at any time? [...]


Yes.
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September 12, 2020, 06:22:34 AM

Edit: Improved syntax.

holy cow.  You are a bot, too? was starting to get lonely around here with gembitz not posting as frequently

It's like you got a software update...  Shocked

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

We all could be bots. Enter The Matrix. Or eXistenZ!

If you're referring to my "improved syntax" edit and not my entire post, I confess that I'm a perfectionist, and as such, I always correct/improve my posts when I spot something that needs changing. I'm not afraid of the Edit button. In fact, I consider it the most important button of a forum engine.

Sometimes, though, imperfections can be welcome, as in the case of the "HoDL" misspelling. Just imagine what the Bitcoin world would be, had the author edited and corrected his post! We would all be HoLDing, and my nickname would be AlcoHoLD... Damn, that sounds so wrong...
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September 12, 2020, 06:39:54 AM

- that is the deadman's zone.. which just means that we are NOT too likely to spend much time there... so sure, you could end up being correct because we are passing through the deadman's zone and it happens to hit on your numbers.

Yup.
Swiftly through to January and ATH.


Personally, I believe the more likely numbers are either below $17,250 or above $23,500 - and personally I think that it would be too optimistic to achieve above $23,500 in just 3.5 months - therefore $14k to $17,250 seem more likely by the end of the year...

This is fine. Grin



Did Finney or Nakamoto ever mention such an event/situation as a market for forks?

Pretty sure they were well aware.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bifurcation_theory

Quote
Period-halving bifurcations (BTC) leading to order, followed by period doubling bifurcations ($) leading to chaos.
             

And since the 70's, Feigenbaum constants are a thing, so... Roll Eyes



I don't think he really cared or give much thought about the possibility of some people creating a fork no matter if it tried to bank on a similar name, most of the code, or reuse Bitcoin blockchain as an starting point.

Imo he didn't care or talked about it, because it was inevitable.
JayJuanGee
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September 12, 2020, 06:42:07 AM

Edit: Improved syntax.

holy cow.  You are a bot, too? was starting to get lonely around here with gembitz not posting as frequently

It's like you got a software update...  Shocked

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

We all could be bots. Enter The Matrix. Or eXistenZ!

If you're referring to my "improved syntax" edit and not my entire post,

Word choice gave you away.

No real human would use those words.

I confess that I'm a perfectionist, and as such, I always correct/improve my posts when I spot something that needs changing. I'm not afraid of the Edit button. In fact, I consider it the most important button of a forum engine.

Bots should get it right the first time, unless they need a software (or programming) update to make adjustments to their "syntax" choices.

Sometimes, though, imperfections can be welcome, as in the case of the "HoDL" misspelling. Just imagine what the Bitcoin world would be, had the author edited and corrected his post! We would all be HoLDing, and my nickname would be AlcoHoLD... Damn, that sounds so wrong...

Sure. Makes senses to me.  Nanu nanu - a form of perfect imperfection.   Wink
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September 12, 2020, 07:03:41 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1)

Good morning WO gang! I see that we continue to build up support above $10K. For the last 48 hours 3000 BTC were added to Coinbase bid book and more than 500 BTC to Bitstamp's. Meanwhile the sharp decrease of BTC's held on exchanges continues (over 15% in the last 6 months):



My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.  

During a bull run nobody can predict what will be the top before the next pull back. In the Spring of 2017 we had 3x increase and in the Autumn of 2017 - 6x. Both periods were full of 'bad' news: PBOC FUD which casued several 40% crashes and moreover restructuring of the market, which was 95% in China's exchanges; Ver's BU fork attempt, bcash fork, nov. cancelled fork, various shitcoins pumping to the roof, etc. And all of that could not stop the bull run. I am even thinking that the bad news were actually a catalyst for this incredible bull run. More crashes, less weak hands holding the price down. And at the same time BTC's held on exchanges increased 2.5x.

tl;dr It is quite possible to see a bigger bull run than we expect, like 2017's Autumn 6x. So, my price tag for selling something this year will be between 40K and 60K. I know this sounds crazy, but it is better to be prepared than surprised selling too early, isn't it?

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September 12, 2020, 07:11:09 AM

2020 (Halving): $8500
2020 (EOY): $13,000 <-- Predicted
2021 (Q4): $30,000 <-- Predicted

I find the above SOMA predictions quite conservative.

Of course, these predictions are bearish, but, frankly, I'm OK with them. $30k in 2021 will enable me to make a few major changes to my life.

Somehow, though, I believe we will far exceed those numbers, and the above post will become meme material.  Cool
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September 12, 2020, 07:17:37 AM

- that is the deadman's zone.. which just means that we are NOT too likely to spend much time there... so sure, you could end up being correct because we are passing through the deadman's zone and it happens to hit on your numbers.

Yup.
Swiftly through to January and ATH.

I am not going to put it past you, if you are observing that certain times of the year seems to end up in higher levels of short term BTC price movements, and I would not rule out the end of the year and even beginning of the year to have that kind of a BTC price dynamic.... even if such BTC price movements are NOT rising to the level of a blow off top (maybe a local blow off top, but that's a different story?).

And, sure another question, pass through or quickly enter and correct?

Time will tell if your hunch for passing through that price zone is correct, or premature.


Personally, I believe the more likely numbers are either below $17,250 or above $23,500 - and personally I think that it would be too optimistic to achieve above $23,500 in just 3.5 months - therefore $14k to $17,250 seem more likely by the end of the year...

This is fine. Grin

Well, if we ONLY prepared for UP scenarios that could mean that we inadequately prepared for DOWN scenarios, which of course are also in the mix. 

Would hate to end the year on a weak-hands purging, snot-nosed defi purging sentiment. but hey, cannot even be sure if such a purging will come or if it is necessary in the coming months.

There are sure a lot of crazies out there currently, and crazy people also carrying out crazy projects attempting to figure out which scammer can outdo the other in terms of scammer creativeness...

Will it implode before the end of the year, or is there additional runway for the newbies to come in and keep it going?


.

I don't think he really cared or give much thought about the possibility of some people creating a fork no matter if it tried to bank on a similar name, most of the code, or reuse Bitcoin blockchain as an starting point.

Imo he didn't care or talked about it, because it was inevitable.

I am pretty sure that I had seen at least a few times that satoshi proclaimed that snake oil imitations were inevitable, even if satoshi did not get into particulars, one of the natures of any open source project is that the code can completely be copied, and satoshi surely discussed these kinds of snake oil imitation dynamics trying to mislead people away from value.
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September 12, 2020, 07:18:32 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), Torque (1), DdmrDdmr (1)







https://twitter.com/bitcoinorghk

Bitcoin Ads Plastered Across Hong Kong Trams and Near Banks

Quote
A Hong Kong non-profit is taking out ads to educate citizens about Bitcoin.
The ads urge users to "be their own bank."
Trams and bank locations in Hong Kong will feature the billboards until October 8.

https://decrypt.co/41514/bitcoin-ads-plastered-across-hong-kong-trams-and-near-banks

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