Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

he he

Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific, the crowd will tend to become much less wild in anticipation...and then btc would outperform.
If everybody are sitting counting their imaginary funds at $100K or above by Dec 2021, it would NOT do it.

[1603960345]

1603960345

[JayJuanGee]

he he

Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific, the crowd will tend to become much less wild in anticipation...and then btc would outperform.
If everybody are sitting counting their imaginary funds at $100K or above by Dec 2021, it would NOT do it.

You are not referring to my "conservative" prediction, I hope, and trying to suggest that I am waffling or becoming more conservative because of fear in regard to some short-term bad newses?

In spite of the short term bad newses (ie bitmex situation), my overall framework has actually become more bullish (at least I have been thinking about this for about week or two), as I attempted to outline in the post to say that I have tentatively moved my BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12%.

By the way, I did think about you too, Biodom because increasing BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12% .. also has significant, meaningful and material impacts upon things like retirement and various underlying presumptions of passive income and thresholds for reaching fuck you status...

Increasing BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12% will significantly bring down the capital requirements for reaching fuck you status..... but surely, if some aggressive withdrawal abilities are expected, then maybe there would be some needs for maintaining a greater cushion, too?

So instead of having a withdrawal rate of 4% per year, the withdrawal rate could be moved up to something like 8% per year.

You did not even like my reliance on a 4% per year in order to maintain passive income status, so surely, you will be more bothered by a doubling to an 8% per year withdrawal rate... and so I will concede that even for me, it is feeling a bit aggressive.. and I am going to play with it for a bit of time to see if I can make it work... it is a kind of bitcoin exception.. that may not end up playing out, empirically.. I will play with it for a while in any upcoming hypothetical...

Good news for uie pooie the persistent party poop is that if you used to need $6 million of capital to maintain your passive income expectations (based on a 4% withdrawal rate), you could figure out ways to reduce that down to a $3 million principle based on an 8% withdrawal rate and still find it workable to achieve your income expectations..

hahahahaha

I don't expect you to go down into accepting these concepts (including a possible doubling of your withdrawal rate) without a fight.  

Oh yeah... also, in regards to 1) Plan B's stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles, those ideas are still in the background and likely pushing BTC UPpity on an ongoing basis and they persist to cause bullish ideations, but I would not believe it prudent to structure base finances around them in any kind of meaning and substantial way - though good, for sure, to have a plan in case that outrageous shit were to end up happening.. and really, the models do not really cause them to be lessening in likelihood, even if there might be some short-terms feelings of set back and even if we were to get some kind of correction down to BTC's 200 week moving average (of $6,800) or something seemingly outrageous like that.

[Amel]

he he

Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific, the crowd will tend to become much less wild in anticipation...and then btc would outperform.
If everybody are sitting counting their imaginary funds at $100K or above by Dec 2021, it would NOT do it.

You are not referring to my "conservative" prediction, I hope, and trying to suggest that I am waffling or becoming more conservative because of fear in regard to some short-term bad newses?

In spite of the short term bad newses (ie bitmex situation), my overall framework has actually become more bullish (at least I have been thinking about this for about week or two), as I attempted to outline in the post to say that I have tentatively moved my BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12%.

By the way, I did think about you too, Biodom because increasing BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12% .. also has significant, meaningful and material impacts upon things like retirement and various underlying presumptions of passive income and thresholds for reaching fuck you status...

Increasing BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12% will significantly bring down the capital requirements for reaching fuck you status..... but surely, if some aggressive withdrawal abilities are expected, then maybe there would be some needs for maintaining a greater cushion, too?

So instead of having a withdrawal rate of 4% per year, the withdrawal rate could be moved up to something like 8% per year.

You did not even like my reliance on a 4% per year in order to maintain passive income status, so surely, you will be more bothered by a doubling to an 8% per year withdrawal rate... and so I will concede that even for me, it is feeling a bit aggressive.. and I am going to play with it for a bit of time to see if I can make it work... it is a kind of bitcoin exception.. that may not end up playing out, empirically.. I will play with it for a while in any upcoming hypothetical...

Good news for uie pooie the persistent party poop is that if you used to need $6 million of capital to maintain your passive income expectations (based on a 4% withdrawal rate), you could figure out ways to reduce that down to a $3 million principle based on an 8% withdrawal rate and still find it workable to achieve your income expectations..

hahahahaha

I don't expect you to go down into accepting these concepts (including a possible doubling of your withdrawal rate) without a fight.  

Oh yeah... also, in regards to 1) Plan B's stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles, those ideas are still in the background and likely pushing BTC UPpity on an ongoing basis and they persist to cause bullish ideations, but I would not believe it prudent to structure base finances around them in any kind of meaning and substantial way - though good, for sure, to have a plan in case that outrageous shit were to end up happening.. and really, the models do not really cause them to be lessening in likelihood, even if there might be some short-terms feelings of set back and even if we were to get some kind of correction down to BTC's 200 week moving average (of $6,800) or something seemingly outrageous like that.

Top 3 Coins Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple: BTC upside topped at $11,600

BTC is perched on head of a powerful flexibly divider, so drawback potential is restricted. On the upside, the bulls have the space to move the cost up to $11,600, before it meets a solid opposition level. According to Sentiment, there is an enormous spike in the age expended metric on sixteenth September. Normally, a spike brings about an unexpected value development (could be either sure or negative). In any case, passing by the IOMAP, we can figure that the development will be positive.




Throughout the most recent 10 days, there has been a sharp drop in on-chain advancement action. This is generally a bearish sign. In any case, Bitcoin isn't as reliant on-chain action as Ethereum.

[fillippone]

Hyge!

Trump Says He and Flotus Tested Positive for Covid-19

Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!
 

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1311892190680014849?s=21

Another reason why Melania is regretting not social distancing from Donald...
How can be more presidential debate then?


Edit:
It also might be part of a strategy. Getting COVID and “surviving it” could reinforce his rhetoric about it.
Also it would strengthen his image. In Italy Silvio Berlusconi got COVID too. He told that “medics told me I got one of the highest viral count in Italy”. Yes, of course, he is well now, he’s my hero (/sarcasm).
 

[Paashaas]

Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific

That's a little bit exaggerated, you can say the same that all models are wrong it works until they dont. Great material for observation and speculation, it works pretty well for PlanB so far atleast in this bullrun.

Trump Says He and Flotus Tested Positive for Covid-19

[Lambie Slayer]

RIP Donald. He will soon have the sniffles and be dead in 4 hours, if only the US military had stocked up on more Kleenex 

[Lambie Slayer]

Buy the POTUS sniffles dip. 

[AlcoHoDL]

COVID-19 has now become a fashion symbol, and {P,FL}OTUS just follows the trend. Should boost their popularity. LOL!

[Last of the V8s]

So Trump is ded,
Arthur is feisty
Azeri troops are hot
that boomer is in
and 2 stale blocks all in one day.
Still a few hours for ... stuff. Perhaps the price will actually do something. Nah sorry just a wild dream.

[Lambie Slayer]

Serious question. In the (1 out of 10,000 chance) event that Trump dies, will Pence be forced to nuke China for taking out our Commander in Chief?

Or perhaps Trump could have caught Corona on purpose after doing so badly in the debate. His plan would be to go into a bunker, fight a nuclear war with China, then declare a never ending state of emergency and crowning himself President for Life for the surviving population.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Just throwing it out there that maybe Trump + wife don’t have covid & it’s a tactical play to help him win the election. Just an idea, either way he’ll be fine because he isn’t 80+ with moderate to severe pre-existing health conditions.

[JayJuanGee]

Serious question. In the (1 out of 10,000 chance) event that Trump dies, will Pence be forced to nuke China for taking out our Commander in Chief?

Odds of death would probably be closer to 1/50, maybe even quite a bit greater than that for someone who is in such age group.. maybe even other underlying health factors that might not be being disclosed, also.

On the other hand, if we assume he gets the best of treatment (not blood letting because we are in "modern times"), maybe the odds would lower to something in the 1/100 to 1/200 arena... but 1/10,000 odds seems way too low.

Regarding your second question, of course, you are not serious... should not be treating trolls as if serious, even on the face of the question it could hardly be serious.

Just throwing it out there that maybe Trump + wife don’t have covid & it’s a tactical play to help him win the election. Just an idea, either way he’ll be fine because he isn’t 80+ with moderate to severe pre-existing health conditions.

Actually, you might be correct that he does not actually have it.  It could be a sympathy play.

If he does have it, personally, I would not assume that he is as healthy as he proclaims himself to be.

[Lambie Slayer]

Just throwing it out there that maybe Trump + wife don’t have covid & it’s a tactical play to help him win the election. Just an idea, either way he’ll be fine because he isn’t 80+ with moderate to severe pre-existing health conditions.

The timing is odd. Trump did say he was taking Hydroxy so he might just be taking over the news cycle so he can claim that he recovered fast w no symptoms due to Hydroxy.

Most likely he is completely fine and doesn't die of covid unless he is hit by a bus. That would be a coronasniffle death of course.

Im just glad he did have something actually dangerous happen to him like a snake bite. 

[Saint-loup]

The monthly update:



September 2020 - so far no storm in sight, but it is getting colder for sure.

Unreal, another month already passed. Autumn has arrived, orange turned into red. Down 7.55 %, 117 pages to catch up. Does everything go down the drain? No! We are 50% up this year and I will have this month my first week off this year. Really looking forward to read you soon!

Gentlemen, I hope you are doing fine and start enjoying the season in comfort! 

Hello Dunkelheit667
Thank you for your update.
It would be interesting to have the temporary "HODL" each monthly update instead of getting it only at the end of the year...

[El duderino_]

Just throwing it out there that maybe Trump + wife don’t have covid & it’s a tactical play to help him win the election. Just an idea, either way he’ll be fine because he isn’t 80+ with moderate to severe pre-existing health conditions.

The timing is odd. Trump did say he was taking Hydroxy so he might just be taking over the news cycle so he can claim that he recovered fast w no symptoms due to Hydroxy.

Most likely he is completely fine and doesn't die of covid unless he is hit by a bus. That would be a coronasniffle death of course.

Im just glad he did have something actually dangerous happen to him like a snake bite. 

Whatever, if he has it or not.... Trump has his cleaning vaccins so NP there ...

[El duderino_]

he he

Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific, the crowd will tend to become much less wild in anticipation...and then btc would outperform.
If everybody are sitting counting their imaginary funds at $100K or above by Dec 2021, it would NOT do it.

If you mean with everybody, the atm 1% or less involved in BTC from current population, then yes we wouldn't get their.... But I see more and more growing intrest... If the model of planB will not work out exactly as he says is probably 100% accurate. But how he sees things, compare things and write them down, thats exactly what people need to see, to understand what BTC is compared with already existing assets and just the S2F talk is something that opens eyes imo.... Of-course BTC probably will not ride the model exactly, still doesn't take away that his point of view is a nice approach and good speculation...

[Lambie Slayer]

Just throwing it out there that maybe Trump + wife don’t have covid & it’s a tactical play to help him win the election. Just an idea, either way he’ll be fine because he isn’t 80+ with moderate to severe pre-existing health conditions.

The timing is odd. Trump did say he was taking Hydroxy so he might just be taking over the news cycle so he can claim that he recovered fast w no symptoms due to Hydroxy.

Most likely he is completely fine and doesn't die of covid unless he is hit by a bus. That would be a coronasniffle death of course.

Im just glad he did have something actually dangerous happen to him like a snake bite. 

Whatever, if he has it or not.... Trump has his cleaning vaccins so NP there ...

Yes, a small price for him to pay for having sex with his assistant Hope Hicks. Thats the real story here. Melania will forgive him, bc she also was having sex with Hope.

[El duderino_]

Institutional investors around me really like the digital euro and central bank digital currencies (CBDC), but remember:

CBDC = IOU (debt, with credit risk, which can be debased).

Bitcoin = cash (bearer instrument, without credit risk, which can't be debased).

BIG difference!

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1311922525375549441?s=20

[El duderino_]

Fundamentally the market is scared for all the wrong reasons.

MEX did NOT get hacked. No traders will lose coins.

Futures exchanges will clean up their practices.

We'll see less volatility, less scam-wicking, more spot volumes, more organic moves, more institutional money.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311941304532627456?s=20

Meanwhile the on-chain fundamentals are showing more new investors are coming in than the mania phase of the last cycle (Dec 2017), without it reflected in price. This is because the unfettered trading games on derivative platforms is holding the price down.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311941306818555904?s=20

The CFTC just announced they are turning the volume down on unregulated derivative exchanges and their dominance on price.

BTC is going to pop.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311941309007970306?s=20

^Elwar said it to

[600watt]

EU is going full steam digital €


they list the reasons it could become necessary to issue a digital € and the most interesting reasons are

-avoiding risks of unregulated payment solutions
-preempting uptake of foreign currencies


regarding the first one I assumed this was directed towards libra. but then again... if they ever let libra happen they would regulate the hell out of it.
so... towards what is this official policy of the EU aimed at? what is an unregulated solution? the only real unregulated imaginable is bitcoin. imho the EU is acknowledging Bitcoin as a serious competitor.

regarding the second one I think this aimed towards Chinese or other cbdc´s that are being developed. this is remarkable! the EU is officially acknowledging game-theory of global financial scale: "we can't let them have all the global market"

the race has started. they all have to follow. strategically a necessity. them are studying bitcoin very closely I am sure.

here are the other reasons the give:

-complementing cash and deposits
-creating synergies with payment industry
-supporting digitalization in EU economy
-ensuring access to central bank money

(last one is interesting. what kind of scenario is this one aimed at?)
 


https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/Report_on_a_digital_euro~4d7268b458.en.pdf#page=4

I just quickly looked through, its an interesting read.

An infrastructure with some decentralisation could be used to provide a bearer digital euro, where either end users, or supervised intermediaries acting on their behalf, would verify any payment. This could be achieved through either of the following two models, which could also be combined:64
(i) Direct end-user access to the bearer digital euro;
(ii) Hybrid bearer digital euro (also allowing wholesale transactions) and account-based infrastructure.

a bearer CBDC?  

Different technical solutions could be envisaged for implementing such a solution, in particular enabling the central bank to have administrator access through remote access capabilities to the digital euro systems operated by supervised intermediaries. More advanced techniques could be used whereby cryptographic proof is computed by the systems to prove to the central bank that the amounts recorded remain valid.
Finally, to ensure consistency of the amounts and avoid the abovementioned risks for end users, the latter could be given the possibility to automatically check, through their devices and applications, that their balances correspond to what is recorded in the system of the central bank. To ensure that no unintended transaction can be originated by an intermediary on behalf of a user, the end user could automatically send a request to the central bank upon initiation of a transaction (using a private signature not known to the intermediary) approving initiation of the transaction. The end user would then receive confirmation from the central bank system that the transaction had been processed.

money is going digital. there will be

-bitcoin, the only real digital scarce asset

-50k shitcoins

-10 or 20 CBDC (or if the go full shitcoin we will have 160 CBDC soon...)



should bitcoiners worry about competition in the digital scarcity game?

Requirement 4 (R4): monetary policy option. If considered to be a tool for improving the transmission of monetary policy, the digital euro should be remunerated

23) at interest rate(s) that the central bank can modify over time

 

i have read in there somewhere that they wanted to peg it to the overall interest rate which is 0% to -0.5%

so, no ... thank you.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/html/digitaleuro-report.en.html

also see reuter link:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-currency-digital/ecb-must-prepare-to-issue-a-digital-euro-panetta-says-idUSKBN26N0S0?utm_source=reddit.com