Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

In 2017, a couple of friends asked me how to get into crypto. I told them "not crypto, Bitcoin!" They said it was too expensive, and bought Ripple and Lumen instead. They pumped, my friends ended up with 10x their initial investment. I told them "sell them NOW and buy Bitcoin!" They didn't listen to me.

Yesterday, I was chatting with one of them, and casually mentioned that Bitcoin is pumping and we'll soon reach ATH and beyond. He was not so happy. He changed the subject...

[1713958539]

1713958539

[1713958539]

1713958539

[Phil_S]

Weather feels a bit pumpy today.

[strawbs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Idc2mkS-QLk

Maggie the damn block

Blijft in uw kot!

Minister of health

Dude, that's your Minister of Health? Could they have chosen a less suitable looking Health Minister???

And congrats on the 2-0, Eng seemed to have a lot of possession but never really doing too much with it  

[strawbs]

In 2017, a couple of friends asked me how to get into crypto. I told them "not crypto, Bitcoin!" They said it was too expensive, and bought Ripple and Lumen instead. They pumped, my friends ended up with 10x their initial investment. I told them "sell them NOW and buy Bitcoin!" They didn't listen to me.

Yesterday, I was chatting with one of them, and casually mentioned that Bitcoin is pumping and we'll soon reach ATH and beyond. He was not so happy. He changed the subject...

I always find "but I don't have enough money to invest in bitcoin, they're over $xxxx each" to be the most common response when I tell folk to avoid shitcoins. At which point, I consider them to be beyond help and change the conversation to something else.

[V8s Road Warrior]

Another rigged
football match. England in fact
thrashed the Belgians.

[xhomerx10]

Blijft in uw kot! ...of gegeten worden, denk ik.

[El duderino_]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Idc2mkS-QLk

Maggie the damn block

Blijft in uw kot!

Minister of health

Dude, that's your Minister of Health? Could they have chosen a less suitable looking Health Minister???

And congrats on the 2-0, Eng seemed to have a lot of possession but never really doing too much with it 

Yeah she’s not looking to well


Aaaaand yeah, Belgium let them play along a bit.... 

[El duderino_]

Blijft in uw kot! ...of gegeten worden, denk ik.

First ok after the .... or been eaten, I think. <— 

[Millionero]

Please do not change the roller guys color 

Orange coins matter.

[Wilhelm]

Blijft in uw kot! ...of gegeten worden, denk ik.

First ok after the .... or been eaten, I think. <— 

Blijft in uw kot!  => Old fashioned (or belgian) way of saying "Stay in your raggedy-ass house!"

[V8s Road Warrior]

another day another vaccine
there's too much bloody choice in this world
in my day blah blah blah even heard of consumerism
blah blah by our own bootstraps
blah blah the price of everything and the value of nothing

[fillippone]

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/bitcoins-moon-target-set-at-318000-in-december-2021-by-citibank-report/?amp=1

TLDR: Citibank now reads WO and is filling their bags.

Here you have the full report.

Bitcoin: 21st Century Gold
By Tom FitzPatrick

• The whole existence of Bitcoin has been characterised by unthinkable rallies followed by painful corrections (The type
  of pattern that sustains a long term trend.)
  
  
• The first major rally on this chart as Bitcoin came into the mainstream was the exponential move from 2010 into the 2011 high
  followed by a deep correction. This is interesting for 3 reasons
  
  
  • That surge, as it came into the mainstream, was very reminiscent of what happened with Gold as it was allowed to
    float in the early 1970’s after 50 years of trading in a $20-$35 range.
  • That period with regard to the Gold price was a structural change in the modern day monetary regime as it broke
    the orthodox relationship between FIAT currencies and Gold ushering in a World of fiscal indiscipline, deficits and
    inflation.
  • The Bitcoin move happened in the aftermath of the Great Financial crisis which saw a new change in the monetary
    regime as we went to ZERO per cent interest rates (negative in some countries) and massive QE.
  
  
• Are we on the cusp of another such structural development? A number of things come to mind in that respect
  
  
  • With the onset of a new crisis (Covid) Fiscal Orthodoxy has gone out the window (and likely rightly so for now). The
    unprecedented societal crisis that we are seeing today leaves little if any room around the World for Fiscal
    austerity.
  • The Fed (The Central Bank of the World) has given 2 pieces of very clear guidance in recent years about how
    monetary policy is being reshaped, in possibly the most dramatic fashion since the floating of Gold in the 1970’s,
    even more so than the introduction of QE in the last cycle.
  • The first guidance was before the Pandemic hit and was an assessment of the actions taken during the Financial
    crisis. If I remember the phrase correctly it was something like “better a dime today than a Dollar tomorrow”. In
    essence the conclusion was that it was better if a crisis developed to hit it hard and early rather than piecemeal
    over time- the “big bazooka” effectively. True to their word that is exactly what they did as the Pandemic roiled
    financial markets in Feb-March this year.
  • The second and (in my view) more “monumental” guidance was the indication that as the economy/inflation
    and employment pick up they will not look to constrain monetary policy in the same fashion they have in the whole
    post Volcker era. This change in monetary policy and simultaneous opening up in fiscal policy is (despite
    protestations to the contrary) MMT in all but name and a clear intention of debasing FIAT currency.
  
  
• Historically this has been good for Gold and likely will again. However, Gold has some restrictions that also need to be noted.
  Physical Gold needs to be stored, is not readily portable across borders, has paper equivalents on exchanges that may or may
  not fully reflect the actual move in Gold and could possibly be called “yesterday’s news” in terms of a financial hedge.
  
  
• Bitcoin is the new Gold- It is an asset with limited supply. It is digital (This is the 21st century- Gold is a 20th century asset).
  It moves across borders easily and ownership is opaque. That last point is, I believe, very relevant. The huge Fiscal deterioration
  of today has a cost in the future, either directly or indirectly. Directly it is that at some point the “bills have to be paid” which
  means at some time in the future the money needs to be found. While Bitcoin may become subject to more regulatory
  constraints going forward it is a natural store of “money” to avoid this. Indirectly the argument can be the debasement of FIAT
  currencies by creating high nominal growth and inflation (effectively a soft default- I do not believe hard default, particularly in
  the World’s reserve currency is a real concern. However in lesser currencies it could well be)
  
  
• Central Banks are increasingly discussing digitisation of currencies: This is a double edged sword. On one side it creates a
  much more effective mechanism for distributing stimulus (particularly fiscal) but on the other side it also makes capital
  confiscation easier (eg negative interest rates). Both these scenarios would look to me to be positive Bitcoin and in the 21st
  Century give us the digital equivalent (Bitcoin versus FIAT digital) of what we saw in the 20th century when the financial regime
  changed (Gold versus FIAT paper)
  
  
• So let us go back to the chart. After the high was posted in 2011 we saw Bitcoin retrace 93% over 5 months (not for the faint
  hearted). That was followed by a 9 year period that has been much more symmetric as Bitcoin as an asset became more visible
  and increasingly more mainstream
  
  
  • It rallied for 2 years from 2011-2013 (multiplying by an incredible 555 times)
  • It fell from Dec 2013 to Jan 2015 (13 months) by 86%
  • It rallied from Jan 2015 to Dec 2017 (2 years and 11 months) multiplying by 121 times
  • It fell from December 2017 to Dec 2018 (12 months) by 84%
  • It rallied from December 2018 to? by ? %
  
  

• If you look at the chart below and the price action to date you could argue 2 things
  
  • Timeframes for the rally are getting longer (10 months, 2 years, 3 years and next 4 years? So end of 2022.) Of course in
    doing that you likely argue even higher levels as a consequence.
    
  • You look at price action being much more symmetrical over the past 7 years or so (while still huge numbers) forming
    what looks like a very well defined channel giving us an up move of similar timeframe to the last rally. Such an argument
    would suggest that this move could potentially peak in December 2021, at the high of the channel, suggesting a move as
    high as $318k. Improbable though that seems it would only be a low to high rally of 102 times (the weakest rally so far in
    percentage terms) at a point where the arguments in favour of Bitcoin could well be at their most persuasive ever.
    
    

• Time will tell if we end up seeing such lofty levels but the backdrop and the price action we are looking at clearly
  suggest the potential for a major move higher nonetheless in the next 12-24 months.

I don't know about the prediction, but I like the reasoning about bitcoin put down by the guy. It is almost the reason why I am long bitcoin.

[Wilhelm]

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/bitcoins-moon-target-set-at-318000-in-december-2021-by-citibank-report/?amp=1

TLDR: Citibank now reads WO and is filling their bags.

Here you have the full report.

• The whole existence of Bitcoin has been characterised by unthinkable rallies followed by painful corrections (The type
  of pattern that sustains a long term trend.)
  
  
• The first major rally on this chart as Bitcoin came into the mainstream was the exponential move from 2010 into the 2011 high
  followed by a deep correction. This is interesting for 3 reasons
  
  
  • That surge, as it came into the mainstream, was very reminiscent of what happened with Gold as it was allowed to
    float in the early 1970’s after 50 years of trading in a $20-$35 range.
  • That period with regard to the Gold price was a structural change in the modern day monetary regime as it broke
    the orthodox relationship between FIAT currencies and Gold ushering in a World of fiscal indiscipline, deficits and
    inflation.
  • The Bitcoin move happened in the aftermath of the Great Financial crisis which saw a new change in the monetary
    regime as we went to ZERO per cent interest rates (negative in some countries) and massive QE.
  
  
• Are we on the cusp of another such structural development? A number of things come to mind in that respect
  
  
  • With the onset of a new crisis (Covid) Fiscal Orthodoxy has gone out the window (and likely rightly so for now). The
    unprecedented societal crisis that we are seeing today leaves little if any room around the World for Fiscal
    austerity.
  • The Fed (The Central Bank of the World) has given 2 pieces of very clear guidance in recent years about how
    monetary policy is being reshaped, in possibly the most dramatic fashion since the floating of Gold in the 1970’s,
    even more so than the introduction of QE in the last cycle.
  • The first guidance was before the Pandemic hit and was an assessment of the actions taken during the Financial
    crisis. If I remember the phrase correctly it was something like “better a dime today than a Dollar tomorrow”. In
    essence the conclusion was that it was better if a crisis developed to hit it hard and early rather than piecemeal
    over time- the “big bazooka” effectively. True to their word that is exactly what they did as the Pandemic roiled
    financial markets in Feb-March this year.
  • The second and (in my view) more “monumental” guidance was the indication that as the economy/inflation
    and employment pick up they will not look to constrain monetary policy in the same fashion they have in the whole
    post Volcker era. This change in monetary policy and simultaneous opening up in fiscal policy is (despite
    protestations to the contrary) MMT in all but name and a clear intention of debasing FIAT currency.
  
  
• Historically this has been good for Gold and likely will again. However, Gold has some restrictions that also need to be noted.
  Physical Gold needs to be stored, is not readily portable across borders, has paper equivalents on exchanges that may or may
  not fully reflect the actual move in Gold and could possibly be called “yesterday’s news” in terms of a financial hedge.
  
  
• Bitcoin is the new Gold- It is an asset with limited supply. It is digital (This is the 21st century- Gold is a 20th century asset).
  It moves across borders easily and ownership is opaque. That last point is, I believe, very relevant. The huge Fiscal deterioration
  of today has a cost in the future, either directly or indirectly. Directly it is that at some point the “bills have to be paid” which
  means at some time in the future the money needs to be found. While Bitcoin may become subject to more regulatory
  constraints going forward it is a natural store of “money” to avoid this. Indirectly the argument can be the debasement of FIAT
  currencies by creating high nominal growth and inflation (effectively a soft default- I do not believe hard default, particularly in
  the World’s reserve currency is a real concern. However in lesser currencies it could well be)
  
  
• Central Banks are increasingly discussing digitisation of currencies: This is a double edged sword. On one side it creates a
  much more effective mechanism for distributing stimulus (particularly fiscal) but on the other side it also makes capital
  confiscation easier (eg negative interest rates). Both these scenarios would look to me to be positive Bitcoin and in the 21st
  Century give us the digital equivalent (Bitcoin versus FIAT digital) of what we saw in the 20th century when the financial regime
  changed (Gold versus FIAT paper)
  
  
• So let us go back to the chart. After the high was posted in 2011 we saw Bitcoin retrace 93% over 5 months (not for the faint
  hearted). That was followed by a 9 year period that has been much more symmetric as Bitcoin as an asset became more visible
  and increasingly more mainstream
  
  
  • It rallied for 2 years from 2011-2013 (multiplying by an incredible 555 times)
  • It fell from Dec 2013 to Jan 2015 (13 months) by 86%
  • It rallied from Jan 2015 to Dec 2017 (2 years and 11 months) multiplying by 121 times
  • It fell from December 2017 to Dec 2018 (12 months) by 84%
  • It rallied from December 2018 to? by ? %
  
  

• If you look at the chart below and the price action to date you could argue 2 things
  
  • Timeframes for the rally are getting longer (10 months, 2 years, 3 years and next 4 years? So end of 2022.) Of course in
    doing that you likely argue even higher levels as a consequence.
    
  • You look at price action being much more symmetrical over the past 7 years or so (while still huge numbers) forming
    what looks like a very well defined channel giving us an up move of similar timeframe to the last rally. Such an argument
    would suggest that this move could potentially peak in December 2021, at the high of the channel, suggesting a move as
    high as $318k. Improbable though that seems it would only be a low to high rally of 102 times (the weakest rally so far in
    percentage terms) at a point where the arguments in favour of Bitcoin could well be at their most persuasive ever.
    
    

• Time will tell if we end up seeing such lofty levels but the backdrop and the price action we are looking at clearly
  suggest the potential for a major move higher nonetheless in the next 12-24 months.

I don't know about the prediction, but I like the reasoning about bitcoin put down by the guy. It is almost the reason why I am long bitcoin.

I hope he's right but I don't see this happening. IMO $70k-$100k max....

[lightfoot]

And back to 16,300 territory. Nice to see there is a bit of support at these levels, so when it gets to 18k will people be posting double vegattas?

[philipma1957]

Today we are poised to set a new record for btc. edit record set!

2020-11-01  13,762
2020-11-02  13,545
2020-11-03  13,632
2020-11-04  13,908
2020-11-05. 14,937
2020-11-06  15,570
2020-11-07  15,076
2020-11-08  15,255
2020-11-09  15,364
2020-11-10  15,325
2020-11-11  15,562
2020-11-12  15,939  
2020-11-13  16,279
2020-11-14  15,982
2020-11-15  15,972
2020-11-16  16,409                    if we come in over 13,000 this will be the longest streak above 13,000 from day 1 of a month.



here is the old streak which we have already tied as of yesterday.

2018-01-16  11,800.  the 16th of jan ended it


2018-01-15  13,875
2018-01-14  13,544
2018-01-13  14,233
2018-01-12  13,652
2018-01-11  13,593
2018-01-10  14,135
2018-01-09  14,703
2018-01-08  15,103
2018-01-07  16,397
2018-01-06  16,670
2018-01-05  15,982
2018-01-04  14,806
2018-01-03  14,960
2018-01-02  14,057
2018-01-01  13,373

we are working on two other streaks


note pulled info from here


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138109 and reworked by me to show this record breaking event (we hope for a close above 16,000 as a crash could fuck It up)

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@Schuldensuehner
#Bitcoin  has decoupled from Gold. While the yellow metal has dropped after Moderna vaccine news, digital Gold (Bitcoin) continues to move higher.
https://twitter.com/schuldensuehner/status/1328336746904481792?s=21

[Torque]

Alternatively, even if the various bcashes were to attempt to join forces, which probably such joining of shitcoin forces would be a smarter move if any of them could coordinate well enough to figure out such a force joining strategy.. and then it could be called a unforkening.....

[V8s Road Warrior]

https://twitter.com/kerooke/status/1328341089032548352

On Friday, Skybridge Capital filed an amendment with the SEC, allowing their $3.6 billion fund to start investing in Bitcoin.

Keep an eye on @Scaramucci 👀

scaramucci has long been a goldfag, so all good now

edit: prolly some Trump money in that fund, no?

[rdbase]

And back to 16,300 territory. Nice to see there is a bit of support at these levels, so when it gets to 18k will people be posting double vegattas?

That was a quick turn around.
Bitcoin is back on track to contest $16,700 again just were it left off on Friday night. But then the million maga march interrupted that rally.
Although they didn't have a million there.. more like 50k
Michael Moore on The Battle Between So-Called Moderates & Progressives | MSNBC Weekends w/ Alex Witt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TT2rF-RPH1I

Here is who went to that but without any of their masks on : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXhI75JoQsY


Da media says whaaa? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12O_5m6LR_g

Rudy updates everybody this morning on how Trump is doing after saying biden won but ends up hanging up before the interview ends.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2w1hmPMTns

Tone Vays says he doesn't give a sh*t and will start traveling NOW and getting out of his bunker (changes background to a penthouse cause of the bitcoin rally perhaps?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQEyJ99z09A

Just like those honey badgers, BTC don't give a f**k!

[tranthidung]

Hi WO_gang again,

The time-series plots (charts) give you enough visual data for daily high price (in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020) and daily volume.

It has around 45 days till the end of 2020 and if history repeats itself, better things not yet to come.

But be careful with your trading orders and extremely careful if you are trading with high leverages. You can keep your greediness and wait for higher price in rest days of this year but it is not a most wisely way to take profit.

It is not my financial advice.

4 years: 2017 to 2020

In 2017 and 2020