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November 25, 2020, 02:01:09 PM *
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Question: When ATH?
Nov. 2020 - 47 (36.2%)
Dec. 2020 - 43 (33.1%)
Jan. 2021 - 14 (10.8%)
Feb. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
Mar. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
After Mar. 2021 - 16 (12.3%)
Total Voters: 130

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 24429398 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (153 posts by 40 users deleted.)
Lucius
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October 26, 2020, 04:54:04 PM

What type of hypocrisy is this?

People over time (at least some) realize they made a mistake - there’s nothing wrong with that.



https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/413478389329428480?lang=en





https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1305850568531947520?lang=en
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Last of the V8s
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October 26, 2020, 05:21:48 PM

Ah. The moon has very thoughtfully laid on some water. For when we get there. Next year. Thirsty work, this being a bull.
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October 26, 2020, 05:37:08 PM


If they would have sold at $13.2k today, they would already had a profit of $80 million
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October 26, 2020, 05:44:16 PM

Voted.
Last of the V8s
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October 26, 2020, 06:03:04 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Voted.

Yah me too. I was a bit bearish.



how bout you if it's ok to ask?
JayJuanGee
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October 26, 2020, 06:05:42 PM

[........  edited out]......

2004 - baseline
2008 - 285% increase
2012 - 301% increase
2016 - 161% increase
2020 - 320% increase

.......

those are solid figures, congrats

I am pretty happy with how the whole situation has been working out, and really my income in late 2013 and thereafter had largely been reduced too, so really, I had not anticipated any major increases in networth after that time.


my case it is an example of an bitcoin-only investment:

invested in btc in 2013.

2013-2016: 1000% increase
2016-2020: 1000% increase

overall it was a 100x on investment via buying and hodling.

It does NOT seem to be as accurate to measure ONLY what is happening with bitcoin without attempting to take an overall picture of your situation.... that was what I thought was being attempted by lightfoot and replicated by me.

Given bitcoin's actual price performance in those two 4-year periods, getting about 10x on bitcoin and another 10x does not seem implausible or unreasonable - even if you seem to be "coincidentally" coming out with seemingly quite rounded numbers for both of those time frames.

Even though I may be getting ahead in responding to aspects of your post, I would like to point out that figuring out BTC holdings or even overall networth holdings on any particular date can be a complicated matter in itself, and perhaps one of the reasons that some folks may only be inclined to entertain such questions on an annual basis (around tax season), but I have been attempting to maintain an ability to assess these matters and changes in these matters on a monthly basis, and for sure, from time to time, I have ended up having to go back and to revise numbers based on new data or even new ways of categorizing some of the data.

So, my numbers come from an end of October 2016 and end of October 2020 (almost there) assessment, and in 2016, the bitcoin proportion of my overall networth was about 21.3% of my overall networth, and in 2020, my bitcoin proportion of my overall networth is around 75% of my overall networth. My networth charts do NOT show the actual bitcoin price at the time that the value is locked in, but I believe that I had used $700 per BTC in 2016, and so far I have been using $12,900 as my 2020 calculations.

I look at and compare the various numbers, and really I had come to the conclusion that if I had not come across bitcoin, and I had largely continued with my previous investment patterns, my various other investment would have largely remained flat in value - which they have done when I remove bitcoin from the calculations.

Another point is that I find it completely crazy and unreasonable for the vast majority of normies to be transitioning into some kind of high allocation of bitcoin that approaches anywhere close to 100%, and even allocating more than 10% to 20% is going to be unreasonable for a lot of normies.  In my case, specifically, even before I got into bitcoin (before late 2013), I had largely figured out a way that I was going to be able to sustain myself for the rest of my life with a meaningful amount of comfort, even without having had come across the additional returns of bitcoin.  Sure, bitcoin has added a lot of icing on that cake, but even if bitcoin goes completely to zero I have that other value - and of course, I will acknowledge that we have found the precariousness of even traditional investments, too... so sure there is a bit of presumption, in any way of projecting upon how solid of a ground any of these matters happen to be - besides investing in guns and ammo.   Cry Cry Cry

I suppose that part of my point in criticizing the "invest everything in bitcoin" evangelists, is that it seems to me that bitcoin remains such an asymmetric bet that many folks have chances to become rich as fuck without going "all in."  Folks can engage in reasonable ongoing investment into bitcoin (perhaps aggressive can help to accelerate the getting rich matter a wee bit) and become rich as fuck with the passage of time.  Of course, starting out with a 4 year investment timeline is a good minimum starting point, but it seems more reasonable to approach the matter with a 10-20 year investment timeline, and even though regular normies have historically needed to invest 30 to 40 years, bitcoin seems to provide a potential of short-cutting that timeline - even though there are no guarantees of getting rich quick - and it seems quite imprudent, from my perspective, to be presuming that bitcoin is going to get you rich.. and there is some prudence to having some kind of a balanced approach in the way that value in invested and built... even if some folks are going to choose much more aggressive approaches to bitcoin than what I would recommend.


the only other time I tried to invest was me buying internet stocks a few weeks before the Dotcom bubble burst. after a few weeks I had managed to turn €10k in €1k thanks to my immaculate timing.

Many times we can learn from mistakes, but we don't necessarily always learn because sometimes there are personal inclinations that cause many peeps to repeat behaviors (such as gambling), even if they have gotten burned by such behaviors.  I am surely not immuned from such behaviors, and I have several of my own examples of mistakes that were made at various points along the way.

bitcoin only investment is putting all eggs in one basket. it was very risky and it felt terrible. I was over invested in bitcoin for 7 years in a row and I had to pay the toll for it.  it induced panic selling at the lows, it made my hair turn grey, it caused oh-so-many sleepless nights. the stress this strategy put on me was such a burden that more than once I thought about quitting bitcoin despite the gains. financially this strategy worked very well but I am not sure if I can recommend it.

Cannot stop people from engaging in some risk.. and usually recommending a strategy would involve some aspect of considering the extent to which a person might be able to make up for losses, if the risky strategy ends in losses.

Of course, the more richie we become, the more we should be concerned about engaging in some degree of wealth preservation.  If we do not have much wealth to preserve, then sometimes we might consider that we do not hav much to lose, either, so we might be more willing to risk what we have in those kinds of circumstances.. so sometimes those kinds of strategies can pay off, as your experience seems to demonstrate.


if one thinks this might be the only chance of ever escaping the rat-race, this cannot be done without risk. it cannot be done incrementally. you pull the trigger or not.

I disagree.  I believe that you can invest incrementally, even though there may be some advantages to front loading your investment into BTC in a heavier way, as you suggest.


will bitcoin do another 10x? I believe so. will it do another 50x? yes, I think it will. will it do another 100x, reaching $1mil per coin? yes, I think it is possible that bitcoin will reach the levels by the end of the decade.

Of course, all of those are possible and even reasonable assessments of probability - with some uncertainties in regards to the timeline, yet I still conclude that it would be unreasonable and imprudent to approach your own investment strategy as if those various scenarios were guaranteed.

a $10k investment in bitcoin today can become $1mil within 10 years.

I am not disagreeing with you.


Yes, such a thing is possible.





to some extend fiat inflation will be the reason for those insane prices. but I refer to "asset-price-inflation", which is already taking place big time and this trend will only accelerate. but I am not talking about a $1mil price for bitcoin in a world where a loaf of bread costs $1000k.

asset price inflation will continue, but $1mil per coin is possible even in a world where the price of bread will have doubled or tripled in the next decade.

Well, we are probably on a similar page in the assessment of these last points.  In other words, we do not likely need to have Armageddon, hyperinflation or some weird-ass scenarios for bitcoin to reach $1 million or even $10 million.  You are preaching to the choir when you address that angle.
Hueristic
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October 26, 2020, 06:10:22 PM

Voted.

Yah me too. I was a bit bearish.



how bout you if it's ok to ask?

Me too. Smiley

OutOfMemory
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IIRC


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October 26, 2020, 06:24:34 PM

JP Morgan in 2017 - BITCOIN IS TRASH
JP Morgan in 2020- BITCOIN IS THE BEST

What type of hypocrisy is this?

That's just pretty clear evidence of JPM buying BTC after 2017 and getting their bags filled in 2020.
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October 26, 2020, 06:56:49 PM

One other thing...

Stonks are getting hit by a meteor today.

Bitcoin?  Just a speedbump.

Bullish.BTCBTCBTC
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October 26, 2020, 07:07:32 PM

Voted.

Yah me too. I was a bit bearish.



how bout you if it's ok to ask?

Me too. Smiley



well sheeeeeit






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El duderino_
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October 26, 2020, 07:11:58 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still going sideways, but at least it's over $13k... currently $13155USD/$17354CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Okay Bitcoin. That's enough consolidation for now. It's time to start moving up.

Go Bitcoin go.

make your own...
4. sat-sucker
5. node-puller
6. Wall-breaker
7. merit whore

Well done!  Cool


Would love to see it stay at 12,800 to 13,400 up to and past the Nov 3 USA election.

Then moonshot.

I just want daily ATH’s
 Nothing more
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October 26, 2020, 07:18:09 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

Who missed the bull move to 13k ?

Who sold at the bottom?? Cheesy Cheesy

I have not often sold my Bitcoin in the last 7 years...but when I do "I always' manage to have sold at the bottom. Sad

(hey, it's a gift!) Do this enough, and like 'magic', you will find yourself a Bitcoin Hodl'er before you know it! Smiley

The 'dumbest' move was selling 13 BTC at $3,900.00 then watching it go to like $3,400 and feeling pretty proud of myself

then it goes back up to $13k like now ..then down again..and now back around $13k..so baring health issues....not gonna happen.

I did manage to get 5 BTC back by 'buying' back in much higher than the BTC was worth when I sold it.....so it goes. Sad

Brad


edit: Those 8 BTC I'm still down look kinda 'daunting' to get back now, don't ya know. Sad

Yep...

surely difficult to make up for those kinds of sales.

You did much better than mindrust, especially since you sold less than 15% of your stash and you were able to bring that back to less than 10% of your stash.. and think about mindrust selling 100% of his stash, and maybe he bought back 10%.. maybe?  And if so, at a pretty BIG loss, no?  And, the BIGGER loss for mindrust was failing to buy back and to suck up some of the losses.

[...]



Just a funny thought: That 1 out of 10 bitcoins Mindrust bought back might one day easily exceed the dollar value of those 10 bitcoins panic sold during the March 2020 ‘coronadip’.

I agree that such "funny thought" is worth exploring since the power of exponential value growth can frequently be under-appreciated - including that when the BTC price is wildly appreciating, there has sometimes been a kind of throwing around of value in crazy ways, that would cause the losing of money in regular scenarios, but when the BTC price is rising like crazy, some folks might lose or throw away 50% of their stash, but still end up being stupendously profitable. 

Take the period of late 2016 to late 2017, there was a BTC price appreciation of more than 28x from $700-ish to $20k-ish, and buying 20BTC at the start would have cost around $14k, but would have been worth around $400k at the peak... so there may have been ways to fuck up the HODLing and trading of BTC for shitcoins and still come out ahead and even gotten more than your $14k back at or near the BTC price peak.   

In other words, nearly everyone becomes a genius by following some of the more basic principles of buying low and selling high, and also NOT doing the opposite of buying high and selling low.... , which second scenario ended up being some variation of how mindrust's situation played out... which is a sympathetic situation to the extent that he was a real person rather than a troll or a fake - and I do tend to believe that he was a real person... so I continue to have sympathies for his situation, even though it remains a good illustration regarding a kind of value of NOT panicking and NOT losing faith in the BTC.
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October 26, 2020, 07:19:40 PM

https://twitter.com/hasufl/status/1320787086493044737?s=21
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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October 26, 2020, 07:19:42 PM

Ah. The moon has very thoughtfully laid on some water. For when we get there. Next year. Thirsty work, this being a bull.

so when are they gonna bottle it and sell it like perrier?
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October 26, 2020, 07:25:34 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), lightfoot (2)

Global cases rises to almost 500,000 new infections.

Covid-19 is rising on a rapid scale in Europe, hospitalizations and ICU's are almost ore at max capacity in some countries. Europe is on the verge of losing control of its fight against Covid-19 and will slowly moving into lockdown (light) 2.0.

Cases in El Paso County in Texas skyrocketed and hospitals reached 100% capacity. Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Oklahoma, Utah and Ohio reported record single day increases in new infections followed by records in 16 states.

Most parts of Asia seems to be spared.. atleast for now.

But watch out, in the cold winter months the virus will accelerate the spread and deaths even further. Though months ahead, stay save.

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October 26, 2020, 07:43:07 PM

Smiley Smiley
[edited out]

It's true price will be around $20k - $22k because moment it reaches $20k , Hodlers will start selling in small amounts.

For what period are you suggesting that BTC prices are going to be around $20k to $22k, cosmicbtc?

Do you realize that tentatively (and presumably) BTC prices in the $17,250 to $23,500-ish arena is a kind of deadman's zone in BTC prices.. so it remains as not very likely to be accurate to be discussing in any kind of detail anything that might take place in such price zone - especially, since we are NOT likely to be there for very long, relatively speaking.

Of course, in any system, quirks can happen, so I am not saying that hanging out in the deadman's zone for a relatively longer period is not going to happen, and in that regard, we could end up hanging out in such deadman's zone for longer than anticipated, but still, at this time, does not seem to be reality-based to be emphasizing any kinds of bitcoin-related things that may or may not happen within such deadman's zone.

Don't u know nuttin, cosmicbtc?

Oh?  I forgot, u b a newbie.. that may 'splain some of dees lack of focusening matters.


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

If you were not here during 2013 or 2017 bull markets: current #bitcoin price rise is just a small taste of what's next (weekly RSI in 70-90 range). We haven't even started!

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1320396880929579008?s=20

$150,000 or more before 2022 & it’s going to be fucking glorious.

$150,000 $240,000 or more before 2022 2026 & it’s going to be fucking glorious.

$150,000 $500,000 or more before 2022 2030 & it’s going to be fucking glorious.

$150,000 $1,000,000 or more before 2022 2034 & it’s going to be fucking glorious.

Never sell all your Bitcoin but if you want taking some profits prefer selling at each 4-year cycle high.

I stopped talking about the price to my father because whatever it is, his answer is "sell, sell now !". I explained I'm not selling anymore until I'm a millionaire but he can't conceive BTC could make me one.

Hopefully, he will live long enough for you to be able to tell him:  "I told you so."  At current prices (near $13k), you would need around 77 coins..., but if prices go to $100k, then you would only need 10 coins.... So I am not sure if 10 coins are in your reach or if you are going to need BTC prices to go higher before you are able to wag your pointing finger at pops.
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October 26, 2020, 08:01:10 PM

About mindrust, on a serious note, I just can't understand why he did what he did. I would expect such panic selling from a newbie, someone who doesn't know much about Bitcoin, like my mum & dad maybe. But the picture I had of mindrust, was of a seasoned, experienced player. And sell 10 BTC @ under $4000 a piece to get what? $40k? Does that justify losing the chance of a lifetime?

[ --- insert Capt. Picard facepalm meme here --- ]
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October 26, 2020, 08:05:16 PM
Last edit: October 26, 2020, 08:17:21 PM by 600watt
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

wow. look at this transaction:

more than $1 billion worth of btc... Shocked

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/d486aeb0e59181fd1addb4aa69ce04d638188fc1125c424899267e8ed6a8af24

muahaha... check the fee. ..


edit:

found a bigger one:

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/b36bced99cc459506ad2b3af6990920b12f6dc84f9c7ed0dd2c3703f94a4b692
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October 26, 2020, 08:05:56 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Just saw this today, a fun read. Something you can point the bears to when they inevitably start whining about tulips during the upcoming bull run...
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/there-never-was-a-real-tulip-fever
Quote
In fact, “There weren’t that many people involved and the economic repercussions were pretty minor,” Goldgar says. “I couldn’t find anybody that went bankrupt. If there had been really a wholesale destruction of the economy as the myth suggests, that would’ve been a much harder thing to face.”
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October 26, 2020, 08:11:34 PM

Voted.

Yah me too. I was a bit bearish.



how bout you if it's ok to ask?

Me too. Smiley



well sheeeeeit






--------

charts

#dyor

1h


4h

#stronghands




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