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Question: When ATH?
Nov. 2020 - 47 (36.2%)
Dec. 2020 - 43 (33.1%)
Jan. 2021 - 14 (10.8%)
Feb. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
Mar. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
After Mar. 2021 - 16 (12.3%)
Total Voters: 130

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 24473039 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (153 posts by 40 users deleted.)
philipma1957
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October 29, 2020, 07:20:04 PM

Also there are large drops in difficulty due to end of rainy season in China.

This puts downward pressure on price.

This difficulty my gear earns 1 btc for the entire 2 weeks

But with a 15% drops in diff next 2 weeks

I earn 1.15btc

this means as a  miner I have a spare 0.15btc due to higher earnings which I can sell off.

Thus downward pressure on price from miners for the next 17 days.


besides the expected .15 increase in coin for a 1 btc miner there are huge fees.

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer?utm_campaign=dcomnav_explorer

blocks
654662 over 2.8 coins in fees
654661 over 2.5 coins in fees
654660 over 2.6 coins in fees

huge amounts note ant pool made 2 of those blocks more then 5.3 coins in fees they pocket and can sell instantly  thus more downward price pressure.

So whales sitting on 50 million in profit
and big pools getting huge fees

both point to us going down in price.
Also there are large drops in difficulty due to end of rainy season in China.

This puts downward pressure on price.

This difficulty my gear earns 1 btc for the entire 2 weeks

But with a 15% drops in diff next 2 weeks

I earn 1.15btc

this means as a  miner I have a spare 0.15btc due to higher earnings which I can sell off.

Thus downward pressure on price from miners for the next 17 days.


besides the expected .15 increase in coin for a 1 btc miner there are huge fees.

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer?utm_campaign=dcomnav_explorer

blocks
654662 over 2.8 coins in fees
654661 over 2.5 coins in fees
654660 over 2.6 coins in fees

huge amounts note ant pool made 2 of those blocks more then 5.3 coins in fees they pocket and can sell instantly  thus more downward price pressure.

So whales sitting on 50 million in profit
and big pools getting huge fees

both point to us going down in price.


But if miners shut down, you own a larger part of the hashrate. You therefore receive more bitcoins per slower block. Yes?
Additionally fees are higher so you receive a higher miner fee per block.

I don't see why this would cause downward pressure. Doesn't it level out? And when the difficulty adjusts in four days or so you even benefit from your larger share in the hashrate.

Interesting, there must be an Excel sheet out there doing the math.

Yes lets say these 14 days I earned 1 btc and can hodl 0.5 btc from that.

Next 14 days I earn 1.15 btc

So I know I have .15 btc excess

This allows me to sell it and not lower my btc. hodl of .5btc.

So every miner knows they can sell a bit extra and still hodl the same .5btc so .15 btc extra of every btc can be sold.

as for pools that keep most if not all of the fees. antpool makes 20 blocks a day so 20 x 2 = 40 btc extra each day income for a while puts downward price pressure.

this is all short term until next jump.

Quote
https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   654684  (32 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   85.7778%  (1501 / 1749.87 expected, 248.87 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   19298087186262.61                           
Current Difficulty:   19997335994446.11                           
Next Difficulty:   between 17181497331477 and 17340842618679
Next Difficulty Change:   between -14.0811% and -13.2842%
Previous Retarget:   October 17, 2020 at 11:34 AM  (+3.6234%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 2:39 PM  (in 4d 0h 25m 45s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 6:17 PM  (in 4d 4h 3m 52s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 4h 4m 26s and 16d 7h 42m 34s

 
we are going to do a 16 day jump not 14


just because this downward pressure is happening now does not mean fomo won't happen.

So on Nov 2 this particular factor leaves us. it only lasts
Thur
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon

The actual hash rate has dropped 20 to 33% since the 17th
the diff is reflecting 14% of it as the drop was gradual and the diff shows the peak and the lowest and average.

but today's hash rate is 97-101 eh accord to this

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3m
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October 29, 2020, 07:34:26 PM

I missed I was too low on that poll.

This time I voted we go under 13k.



Bear  Tongue

Bearnance

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldelcastillo/2020/10/29/leaked-tai-chi-document-reveals-binances-elaborate-scheme-to-evade-bitcoin-regulators/

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October 29, 2020, 07:45:59 PM
Merited by bitserve (1)


Master xhomerx10 is this image valid to make a hat?
I would like to wear an authentic xhomer hat,soon Grin
Thanks in advance
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October 29, 2020, 08:16:16 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)


Quote
Bitcoin adoption could reach 90% by 2030, investment firm founder claims
Adoption started slow but has ramped up with the passage of time.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-adoption-could-reach-90-by-2030-investment-firm-founder-claims

Honestly, I hate graphs like that tell people there will be a period where it's "too late" to buy bitcoin.

It never has been, nor ever will be in the future, too late to buy bitcoin. If it is ever "too late" to buy it, then it ceases to be a store of value, or even worthy of being transactional.
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October 29, 2020, 08:30:53 PM


Quote
Bitcoin adoption could reach 90% by 2030, investment firm founder claims
Adoption started slow but has ramped up with the passage of time.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-adoption-could-reach-90-by-2030-investment-firm-founder-claims

Honestly, I hate graphs like that tell people there will be a period where it's "too late" to buy bitcoin.

It never has been, nor ever will be in the future, too late to buy bitcoin. If it is ever "too late" to buy it, then it ceases to be a store of value, or even worthy of being transactional.

Too Late For Free Zeroes Every 4 Years.  Quite possibly they will be using BTC without even knowing it by then.
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October 29, 2020, 08:32:12 PM
Merited by Krubster (1)




btw, we're up 60% since the halving...
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October 29, 2020, 08:47:08 PM


Quote
Bitcoin adoption could reach 90% by 2030, investment firm founder claims
Adoption started slow but has ramped up with the passage of time.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-adoption-could-reach-90-by-2030-investment-firm-founder-claims

Honestly, I hate graphs like that tell people there will be a period where it's "too late" to buy bitcoin.

It never has been, nor ever will be in the future, too late to buy bitcoin. If it is ever "too late" to buy it, then it ceases to be a store of value, or even worthy of being transactional.

There is no way that 10% of US already owns bitcoin.
I think that we are still in a low-mid single digits.
However, I don't count owning a few sats on Robinhood for giggles a true ownership of bitcoin.
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October 29, 2020, 09:52:05 PM
Merited by savetherainforest (30), suchmoon (4), FullNode (3), philipma1957 (2), LFC_Bitcoin (1), OROBTC (1), VB1001 (1)


Master xhomerx10 is this image valid to make a hat?
I would like to wear an authentic xhomer hat,soon Grin
Thanks in advance

 The Bitcoin symbol?  Validity guaranteed.

 

avatar-sized

 

I'm going to keep the hat simple so the BTC symbol stands out.
Hope it fits!
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October 29, 2020, 10:10:19 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3), xhomerx10 (2), Toxic2040 (1)


Master xhomerx10 is this image valid to make a hat?
I would like to wear an authentic xhomer hat,soon Grin
Thanks in advance

 The Bitcoin symbol?  Validity guaranteed.

 

avatar-sized

 

I'm going to keep the hat simple so the BTC symbol stands out.
Hope it fits!

xhomerx10 awesome, the bitcoin symbol is perfect with my username, the node has been running for 2 years without a break, I only lack a few merits and I will be able to use it
Thank you very much
Last merits for you
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October 29, 2020, 11:29:57 PM
Merited by VB1001 (1)

Leave of absence, my friends. Busy with life. A few people around me were hit by this virus, but they've all recovered or are recovering.

Looking forward to more loitering here. Hopefully soon.

Go bitcoin go!

+1 WOsMerit

Kinda doing the same..take care of yourself and family.



---------


-snip-

    Validity guaranteed.



 

I'm going to keep the hat simple so the BTC symbol stands out.
Hope it fits!



+1 WOsMerit

Brilliant.


--------


Thank you very much


+1 WOsMerit

I like this pretty well.

------------

some charts

#dyor


1h


4h


D

#stronghands
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October 29, 2020, 11:33:23 PM

...

I got my Bitpay debit card working today.   Smiley

The circle is now unbroken.  I can buy and sell BTC/CA$H without exchanges (though had to do KYC).  If I can do it, millions of other Americans can too.  These services make it that much more likely that Bitcoin will see even greater numbers of users as they now can have confidence that they can "Exit" if they want.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5285365.new#new


Edited for clarity
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October 29, 2020, 11:40:14 PM

RE Saylor...he plomped $170 mil of his OWN money into the corn as well.
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1321422012380753921

the guy knows how to DCA,  Wink

I literally don't know what I would do if I was sitting on a $60m profit.

sell 10%, use $6 mil-that's easy.

Hahahaha... then you could sit back and relax to have your $6 million in cold "hard" cash and thereby be able to draw your $240k per year / $20k per month in passive income - not that you needed to withdraw $6 million in order to feel such comfort-levels, but to each his own.

By the way, you could have just left the $60 million in the fund, and drew 10x my above numbers.... $2.4 million per year / $200k per month... minor details...

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1321464188271763463

Lopp: Acquire more bitcoin before @michael_saylor buys them all.

Michael Saylor: Once you understand #Bitcoin, you go to bed each night with anxiety, feeling chronically short.

I know that many of us mere mortals have difficulties understanding how anyone could feel that they do not have enough bitcoin if they have close to 18k of them and also own overwhelming majority in a company that owns more than 38k BTC... Just have difficulties understanding how that quantity might not feel like enough.  Or is it just me?


I have no clue who this Michael Saylor character is (I don't  follow or care about btc whale boastings) but I find it weird that one
has to publish one's bitcoin holdings on the interwebs and how much they were bought for.
Is he looking for  some sort following of us mere mortals praising/worshipping  him like ..."oh hooray for you! you are my hero for having lots of bitcoins!" 
Well I'm not doing that, and I really dont give a phuck.
I keep my finances private although I do admit to regrettably posting on this forum hints about it in the past. My bad.


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October 29, 2020, 11:49:56 PM

US elections are about to start.

Start? More than 80 million Americans have already voted.
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October 29, 2020, 11:57:15 PM

US elections are about to start.

Start? More than 80 million Americans have already voted.

Poor thing... He probably doesn't know how 'Murica works yet. Cheesy Cheesy


And... Regarding the Pool with under 13.000$ ... Well... it would have been more accurate if it asked "under 12.500$ ??"  ... Tongue ... But meh. At least 13.000$ is bullish. Smiley
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October 30, 2020, 02:04:08 AM
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https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1321464188271763463

Lopp: Acquire more bitcoin before @michael_saylor buys them all.

Michael Saylor: Once you understand #Bitcoin, you go to bed each night with anxiety, feeling chronically short.

lol no joke. Guy is on a rampage. Almost makes me want to buy more.
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October 30, 2020, 02:20:23 AM
Last edit: October 30, 2020, 04:55:54 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1)

I know that many of us mere mortals have difficulties understanding how anyone could feel that they do not have enough bitcoin if they have close to 18k of them and also own overwhelming majority in a company that owns more than 38k BTC... Just have difficulties understanding how that quantity might not feel like enough.  Or is it just me?

It's not just you. At that level it seems less about bringing freedom and securing a future than it does about collecting the world's wealth into yet another segment of the uber rich. A sort of tech version of the Cantillon Effect. I'm not saying I wouldn't do the same if I had the resources but it's kind of kicking sand in the BTC narrative of equality and opportunity for the unbanked. Just more of the same story of the rich getting richer, anyone arguing otherwise maybe isn't looking at it from the point of view of the masses. Wherever you land on that argument I'm guessing that level of accumulation isn't something most of us would make public.

That's kind of what I have been thinking - like he is doing more than just getting a meaningful stake in BTC, and maybe I am just having difficulties relating to that level of rich - even though I can relate to the idea that none of us should want to have our wealth eroded away.

Regarding disclosure, maybe he felt some kind of duty (or potential legal obligation) to error on the side of overdiscloser - even his personal hodlings - I am not sure.. of course, he did have obligations to disclose matters to shareholders, and maybe since the shares are public rather than private, anyone could end up being (or becoming) a shareholder, so his personal stake in BTC may well be relevant to that matter.. I am not sure.

RE Saylor...he plomped $170 mil of his OWN money into the corn as well.
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1321422012380753921

the guy knows how to DCA,  Wink

I literally don't know what I would do if I was sitting on a $60m profit.

sell 10%, use $6 mil-that's easy.

Hahahaha... then you could sit back and relax to have your $6 million in cold "hard" cash and thereby be able to draw your $240k per year / $20k per month in passive income - not that you needed to withdraw $6 million in order to feel such comfort-levels, but to each his own.

By the way, you could have just left the $60 million in the fund, and drew 10x my above numbers.... $2.4 million per year / $200k per month... minor details...

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1321464188271763463

Lopp: Acquire more bitcoin before @michael_saylor buys them all.

Michael Saylor: Once you understand #Bitcoin, you go to bed each night with anxiety, feeling chronically short.

I know that many of us mere mortals have difficulties understanding how anyone could feel that they do not have enough bitcoin if they have close to 18k of them and also own overwhelming majority in a company that owns more than 38k BTC... Just have difficulties understanding how that quantity might not feel like enough.  Or is it just me?


I have no clue who this Michael Saylor character is (I don't  follow or care about btc whale boastings) but I find it weird that one
has to publish one's bitcoin holdings on the interwebs and how much they were bought for.
Is he looking for  some sort following of us mere mortals praising/worshipping  him like ..."oh hooray for you! you are my hero for having lots of bitcoins!"  
Well I'm not doing that, and I really dont give a phuck.
I keep my finances private although I do admit to regrettably posting on this forum hints about it in the past. My bad.

Michael Saylor seems to be the real deal.  He learned about bitcoin in a relatively short period of time, and largely he put his money where his mouth is.

In his particular case, even though he has been getting a lot of attention, recently, he does not seem to be engaged in any kind of attention-whore seeking conduct, but instead there seems to be some kinds of need for disclosure that relates to his using the funds of a public company to buy bitcoin (as I attempted to address in my response in the above post to bkbirge..

Furthermore, under the confusing aspects of American Securities Exchange Commission rules, it may well be prudent (or even legally required) that his own personal BTC holdings and activities might actually have to be disclosed, too.

Surely, Saylor has been going much beyond mere disclosure, and he has been going on a number of podcasts and he also has been decently active on twitter, too...

Again, Saylor seems to have learned about bitcoin quickly (heard about it last year - like mid-2019 - but really started looking into it seriously around mid-March.. surely a quick-study), and he is really saying a lot of the right things, from a bitcoin maximalist position..

So getting to know Michael may well be a good thing.  Surely, I am not a hero worshiper either, sirazimuth, but still Michael's case is quite interesting and seemingly quite relevant in the bitcoin space today, including the extent to which his actions and his words seem to be providing a road map for other like-minded companies (or even governments) to consider attempting to take aggressive bitcoin positions, earlier rather than later (there is only so much room on the blockchain space, as many of us longer term HODLers already appreciate that aspect of bitcoin that Saylor is tangibly demonstrating through both words and actions).

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1321464188271763463

Lopp: Acquire more bitcoin before @michael_saylor buys them all.

Michael Saylor: Once you understand #Bitcoin, you go to bed each night with anxiety, feeling chronically short.

lol no joke. Guy is on a rampage. Almost makes me want to buy more.

Like this guy (aka yefi) says.   Wink Wink
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October 30, 2020, 03:03:37 AM
Last edit: October 30, 2020, 10:58:46 AM by nullius
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Sorry, folks, another hit-and-run.  For better or for worse, despite the allure of forum community encomia, I don’t anticipate that I will be keeping up with the legendary Wall To End Walls About Walls anytime soon.

Stay above the 13 mark !

Wow, I have not been paying attention !  Go, Bitcoin...



I just had to stop by and comment on this.  It echoes something that I wrote for WO a few weeks ago, but didn’t post; it is symbolic, on so very many levels...

Meanwhile...



I didn’t read any accompanying article, which requires Javascript just to read (after I searched to avoid Twitter’s Javascript requirement); but the first thing that comes to mind is to me an obvious question.  The sort of “obvious” question that nobody stops to think about.

How the fuck would the Thought Police catch illegal “conversations over the dinner table”!?

I see two major options, which are not mutually exclusive.

Option A:  Turn your kids into little spies and snitches.

Brainwashing children to rat out their parents for political “crimes” is 100% pure, unadulterated Communism.

In Nineteen Eighty-Four, Orwell fictionalized a scenario in which people were terrified of their own children.  In reality, such things have actually happened in overtly Communist countries.  And nowadays, in some various so-called “free”, very much democratic countries, children are being groomed (yes, groomed) to tell indoctrination camp “school” staff about everything from their parents’ political heresies to legal household gun ownership, under the rubric of “child safety” and “mental health”.

Option B:  Telescreens.
I myself used to argue that people who have “nothing to hide” should accept taking software-controlled network cameras and microphones in their bedrooms.

Then, I realized that they do just that—and they carry the same remote-eyes-and-ears-and-location-tracker at all times.



Of course, that is “voluntary”—for you—for now.

Today:  China.  Tomorrow:  Your country.

The app, which the Times examined, also allows police officers to flag people they believe have stopped using a smartphone,
The authorities dragged Uighurs off to detention camps for having two phones or an antiquated phone, arbitrarily dumping a phone, or not having a phone at all, according to testimonials and government documents.

If you don’t demand privacy now, then you will lose it altogether—forever.

Now I was going to write a long essay on the perils and frankly idiocy of carrying a surveillance device with closed source hard and software forged in the heart of the Evil Empires (commie and very commie), replete with references back to my own extensive oeuvre, some classical nudes and abstruse words, jumping down someone's throat who once said something in passing, but you'd probably scroll on by like the unmitigated savages you all are.


He looks like a nice chap. Wonder where he comes from. Originally. Ardfork or Ardgay no doubt one of those. oh I know must be Backside, Aberdeenshire.

What do you mean, laddie?  He is purely and simply Scottish!

All Scots are equal, and he is twice as equal as any other Scot.

Your question has no place in the glorious current year, when we are finally conquering the prejudices that bedevilled them old-fashioned old folks in the Dark Ages, a half-century ago.

Yousaf is the son of immigrants who arrived in the UK during the 1960s: his mother came from Kenya and his father from Pakistan.
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October 30, 2020, 03:47:54 AM
Merited by 600watt (1)



Option A:  Turn your kids into little spies and snitches.

Brainwashing children to rat out their parents for political “crimes” is 100% pure, unadulterated Communism.

DARE Scare: Turning Children Into Informants?
http://www.druglibrary.org/schaffer/library/dare4.htm
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October 30, 2020, 04:01:04 AM

1% of our net for us wimpy conservative thinkers (also older), a higher percentage for the bold.


hahahahaahaha

I am glad that you conceded on that one....  Wink Wink

1% of our net for us wimpy conservative thinkers (also older), a higher percentage for the bold.

Bro, national fiat currencies & traditional investments/savings are going to tank hard in the short to medium term future. You need to be WAY more invested in BTC than1%.




Even though I have been razzing OROBTC on this same question, I doubt that we can presume to know his situation or his specifics - even though he seems to have provided a certain amount of information that would cause for reasonable conclusions that he has been underinvesting in BTC - and I believe that his reasons for underinvesting are likely inadequate because he seems to be overallocating in gold and platinum or some other shiny metals.

I personally recommend beginners to BTC to start out by considering an allocation of 1% to 10% into BTC - and of course those are introductory type considerations that a more experienced bitcoiner should be able to feel comfortable in increasing, once getting familiar with bitcoin basics - and studying the space for a while, which OROBTC does seem to have been studying the bitcoin space for a considerable amount of time.

Another potentially relevant factor that OROBTC mentions is that he is likely more elderly... and surely I would agree that most elderly folks would not want to be entering any kind of an aggressive position in BTC if their investment time-horizon is not at least 4 years - and of course, we do have this little issue of the 4-year cycle, too, and a decent amount of likelihood that we are upon the precipice of an upward slope in the next year or two... and surely you, LFC, have already referred to that ongoing existing dynamic that would likely justify a more aggressive BTC investment stance for less than 4 years.

Surely, we can badger OROBTC a bit in terms of his lack of aggressiveness, yet in the end, he seems to have already thought through his allocations and seems to have a seemingly wimpy system in place, in which he is content with such wimpiness.. not to beat a dead horse.
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October 30, 2020, 04:19:45 AM
Last edit: October 30, 2020, 04:33:09 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)


Quote
Bitcoin adoption could reach 90% by 2030, investment firm founder claims
Adoption started slow but has ramped up with the passage of time.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-adoption-could-reach-90-by-2030-investment-firm-founder-claims

There may be some sectors in the USA that are approaching 5% adoption - and maybe even higher if skewing some kind of population of college students who don't hav any money and each of those invested owns, on average, .00027168 BTC, but I would argue the mere fact that they happen to own some BTC does not mean that they have adopted BTC in any kind of meaningful way..

So the study is way the fuck overestimating where BTC is at currently, especially since a vast majority of peeps have hardly any clue what BTC is or the significance of BTC.

I would say that many of the active participants of this thread are decently educated about what BTC is, but even in this thread, there are a large number of us who don't really understand BTC very well and we do not even understand the extent to which we should allocate value into BTC and are we sufficiently allocated into BTC.

In other words, fuck those kinds of attempts to suggest that bitcoin is anywhere near double digits adoption - when the fact of the matter remains that bitcoin has hardly even reached 1% adoption with the population that matters, and that is world-wide population - even though there is some skewing of adoption in which some people (not just Michael Saylor) are way more allocated than the average person would ever be able to approach.. and surely right now there could be a lot of folks who could gather up resources to sufficiently allocate up to 1 BTC or some other reasonable amount like that, but BTC is not like the adoption of refrigerators in the sense that one or two refrigerators might be enough to show that you have adopted refrigerators.. In the case of bitcoin, quantity of bitcoins that might constitute "adequate" adoption is going to change with passage of price, and in 5-10 years, it will likely be proclaimed that the current average broke college student with .00027168 BTC is adequately into bitcoin (adopted), but they are also going to need to be able to hang onto those BTC too, in the next 5-10 years, which is likely another angle that shows quantity of BTC cannot be meaningfully compared to quantity of refrigerators or some other aspect of technology in which more can be produced as adoption increases.


Quote
Bitcoin adoption could reach 90% by 2030, investment firm founder claims
Adoption started slow but has ramped up with the passage of time.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-adoption-could-reach-90-by-2030-investment-firm-founder-claims

Honestly, I hate graphs like that tell people there will be a period where it's "too late" to buy bitcoin.

It never has been, nor ever will be in the future, too late to buy bitcoin. If it is ever "too late" to buy it, then it ceases to be a store of value, or even worthy of being transactional.

There is no way that 10% of US already owns bitcoin.
I think that we are still in a low-mid single digits.
However, I don't count owning a few sats on Robinhood for giggles a true ownership of bitcoin.

Biodom said it better than me.   Cry Cry
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