Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

...
Selling a car with 6 year "savings" is such a mind-fuck approach typical of social engineers in the valley. Cringe.
A small car anyway. Get an S or latter letters if you want at least some comfort/space.

Advice heeded. Thanks.
(as long as the S has the fart button, I'm interested.....)

this one?
https://youtu.be/Esw9vyF0MGw?t=75

sure

this one surely tries to impress some Swiss chicks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bL7qvKQeAjw

[1713559142]

1713559142

[1713559142]

1713559142

[1713559142]

1713559142

[1713559142]

1713559142

[xhomerx10]

Normal girl explains what's going on with the stonk market:

https://twitter.com/avalonpenrose/status/1354496683938201600

She nailed it.

Really?
Sounds like she has no idea what she’s talking about to me..

r/Woosh
r/explainthejoke

 She was able to put so much emotion into her explanation. 

[dieselmeister]

https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1360367972402032642?s=19

Anual Report...

MS bought in average for 16k. And sees it as long term investment.

[Gyrsur]

Normal girl explains what's going on with the stonk market:

https://twitter.com/avalonpenrose/status/1354496683938201600

She nailed it.

Really?
Sounds like she has no idea what she’s talking about to me..

r/Woosh
r/explainthejoke

 She was able to put so much emotion into her explanation. 

at the end she knows it was really bad but decided to put it online anyways. 

[Sayeds56]

I think it hasn’t peaked yet at 49 or we’d be pulling back by now..

Already hit 49k on stamp.

We might see 50K during this Weekend but it is very strong Resistance.



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/9JHnTJyv-Bitcoin-Reversal-from-50-000-and-My-Trading-Plan/

[eddie13]

Normal girl explains what's going on with the stonk market:

https://twitter.com/avalonpenrose/status/1354496683938201600

She nailed it.

Really?
Sounds like she has no idea what she’s talking about to me..

r/Woosh
r/explainthejoke

 She was able to put so much emotion into her explanation. 

at the end she knows it was really bad but decided to put it online anyways. 

Ok yeah I get it.. Sarcasm..

I’m an idiot sometimes..

[Torque]

Normal girl explains what's going on with the stonk market:

https://twitter.com/avalonpenrose/status/1354496683938201600

She nailed it.

Really?
Sounds like she has no idea what she’s talking about to me..

r/Woosh
r/explainthejoke

 She was able to put so much emotion into her explanation.  

at the end she knows it was really bad but decided to put it online anyways.  

OMG, you guys are hopeless.

1. She's an actress

2. She did this monologue as a joke. Like SNL.

3. You apparently did not get the joke

Is it an American humor thing? I dunno.

[Gyrsur]

Normal girl explains what's going on with the stonk market:

https://twitter.com/avalonpenrose/status/1354496683938201600

She nailed it.

Really?
Sounds like she has no idea what she’s talking about to me..

r/Woosh
r/explainthejoke

 She was able to put so much emotion into her explanation.  

at the end she knows it was really bad but decided to put it online anyways.  

OMG, you guys are hopeless.

1. She's an actress

2. She did this monologue as a joke. Like SNL.

3. You apparently did not get the joke

Is it an American humor thing? I dunno.

maybe you're more familiar with fake things than the rest of the world?  

don't want her to be my GF. with every orgasm of her afterwards I have to think about if it was real or not.  

EDIT: don't buy it! either a girl from the countryside or some sort of drugs are involved.

[Syke]

OMG, you guys are hopeless.

1. She's an actress

2. She did this monologue as a joke. Like SNL.

3. You apparently did not get the joke

Is it an American humor thing? I dunno.

WHY do these people film themselves in their cars???

[BobLawblaw]

Fuck this mempool right now. Jesus weeps at these fees...

[JayJuanGee]

Oh how much I  hate that guy!!! ... ... But I found myself some other sh!tcoins to daytrade on.

With no trading fees no down deposit, not limited to crypto (stocks, commodities ...) its hard for a daytrader/gambler to say no.

Seems to me that we all have some degree of daytrader/gambler within us - and maybe a matter of degree rather than absolutes - that we have to learn to suppress an to take on longer term investment principles and practices.

With all these big institutions finally onboarding, i get some kind of a sad feeling...maybe we have to say goodbye to -80% bear markets. I would miss them!

Accumulating in these price ranges just doesn't feel the same anymore. A Sat here, a Sat there...

Do what you can, and surely a lot of retail is going to be front run by institutional investors in the upcoming times because a lot of retail do not understand the value of bitcoin, so if you are accumulating sats, even at these prices, you are likely ahead of the vast majority of the population.

Don't get me wrong in regards to the fairness of bitcoin as an investment in regards to retail.  The truth of the matter remains that retail has had around 10 years or so to front run institutional investors, and ONLY a small portion of the population either recognized such opportunity and/or took advantage of such opportunity.  Cannot really blame anyone in this regard in general ways because sometimes regular peeps are just NOT in a position to invest, to study investments or to NOT get mislead by a decent amount of misinformation that ends up discouraging them from researching and/or starting some kind of actual investment strategy, even if quite modest - such as $10 per week or something like that.

From time to time, it can be good to look at where we are at in regards to our $10 per week over the past 7 years.

Yes, we see that we would have invested $3,660 but we would have accumulated nearly 4.5 BTC, so even modest investment plans can play out quite well in terms of establishing a decent stash - but surely the overall point remains that if institutional investors are getting all hot and bothered about BTC right now in terms of accumulating BTC before others can get into the game, then ONLY those regular investors (retail) who are willing to establish a plan and to get in now are going to have some kind of possibility of having decently low costs of BTC accumulation when we are looking 10 years down the road and everyone is figuring out what their BTC cost basis is as compared to the then BTC price.

Don't get me wrong. My first purchase was back in 2011. But i miss the days when buying bitcoin really meant buying a bitcoin. And not just "0.002BTC".

And since i am really bad at trading, my only chance to really gain substantially more was to sell somewhere in the upper bubble territory and just wait 1.5 years. But i'm not that sure anymore, that we will see these bear markets again when Tesla, Apple and Microsoft just try to buy it all.

I was not trying to be overly judgmental towards you, so don't get me wrong in that regard.

I personally have never subscribed to any kind of selling theory in order to accumulate more BTC, but instead as a way to contribute to some kind of management and maintenance of your stash and your psychology once you have reached your accumulation goals.

I also understand that the mere fact that you knew about bitcoin in 2011 would not necessarily implicate that you would have had cashflow to accumulate substantial amounts of BTC and/or even to have reached your BTC accumulation goals - even assuming that you had been able to recognize the value of bitcoin back then or even sometime in the interim.

I suppose that another reason that I have frequently attempted to assert that each of us has to be prepared for both DOWN and UP is that we cannot really know for sure what direction the BTC price might go, but then so many times through the years, I had been seeing many peeps, even seemingly oldtimers who had been seeming to prepare more for down rather than UP.. which sometimes can really bite you in the ass when the BTC price goes UP and continues to go UP in kind of ways that do not have have meaningful drawbacks - which largely seems to be the situation that we have found ourselves in in bitcoin since about September 2020.  Yeah, the draw down from $42k to $30k was decent, but still there have not been a lot of meaningful BTC corrections since September 2020.. which likely causes some people to end up FOMO buying rather than doing what they should have done earlier, which was stack sats while the BTC price was much lower.. or the long period of time that it was relatively lower, which was nearly three years between about February 2018 until about the beginning of this calendar year.

So if any of us are finding ourselves in a position where we have not stacked enough sats during earlier times, we might be feeling in a kind of no coiner dilemma, even if we have coins... So surely no one can really judge your approach, except yourself and hopefully having some abilities to learn from the situation and figuring out reasonable and prudent ways to procede from where we are at currently and where we might go, rather than just considering where we have been in terms of having regrets.  By the way, ghandi, I am making these comments in response to various points that came up in your posts and not specifically about you, because I hardly even know anything about you besides some points that you were making in your earlier posts.

[Gyrsur]

Fuck this mempool right now. Jesus weeps at these fees...

Jesus, you're right!

https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_average_transaction_fee

Just listen to this and relax. 

https://ipfs.io/ipfs/QmWVMzkmLz2RKocZnietozRqQX6zBwqkRjqKBwvX7J2PEW

[sirazimuth]

Normal girl explains what's going on with the stonk market:

https://twitter.com/avalonpenrose/status/1354496683938201600

She nailed it.

Really?
Sounds like she has no idea what she’s talking about to me..

r/Woosh
r/explainthejoke

 She was able to put so much emotion into her explanation.  

at the end she knows it was really bad but decided to put it online anyways.  

OMG, you guys are hopeless.

1. She's an actress

2. She did this monologue as a joke. Like SNL.

3. You apparently did not get the joke

Is it an American humor thing? I dunno.

The woosh factor indeed....
Now I want to see her post a tweet explaining bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

Again, bitcoin is cool and solid, but the rest are overheating like crazy in complete fever.
To me this looks like a setup for a nice dump. Maybe btc gets to 50-60K area before the dump, then at least 20% decline, which would basically bring us back to where we are now or even slightly below.

I am having a difficult time with your current conceptualization of what is a "dump" Biodom.

Really?  20% would be a dump?  And furthermore we get 20% up into the $50k to $60k territory, then we get a 20% dump which would mean that we would be back into the BTC price arena that we started.. hardly a dump, unless we are considering the matter from an ant's perspective.

I humbly advise to do more work on your reading comprehension, perhaps, as it is not where it should be, yet.

Patronizing is not going to help Biodom, even though it could be funny if strategically deployed.  

It’s February..
Pump season doesn’t end till like December-January..

Still just the beginning..

I listened to a few podcasts with PlanB and Willy Woo, and they both agreed pump season lasts about 18 months after the most recent halving, noting that there have only been two previous halvings. By their estimate, December 2021 might be a good ending.

He did note, that is all based on on-chain data, so show him any 1 month block of data, without prices, and he can tell you what he thinks if it's bull season or bear season, all without looking at the price.. interesting times.

They also talk about super-cycles, and this would be the first ever. It's quite possible we don't really see any "cycles" attached to halvings anymore, although for sure there would still be an effect of those as the supply that comes into the market gets cut in half on the next halving.

I'm tending to believe what Saylor said, that eventually, 200% annual appreciation would go down to 150% after a few years, then to 100%, then to 50%; but we will all get to see $500k and $1m, and from there it goes on slowly to $10m or higher.

I also listened to those and also to NUPL discussion somewhere else, but it seems exceedingly unlikely that we would be able to maintain the tempo until December, which, in my opinion, makes this cycle similar to 2013 (two-humped) with a first peak earlier than expected, say, the end of Feb-early April at much higher than now (maybe 65-100K), then a steep correction to 40-55K (depending on whether it starts at 65 or 100), then flat city until the end of August, then the cycle hurrah burst to whatever number we can reach (150-288K, maybe even higher), ending in Nov-Dec, as usual.

The way that you are describing the double peak (similar to 2013) may well justify that the second half of the peak get drug out for a much longer period of time than it had played out in 2013 - surely reasonable to drag out into any of the first 3 quarters of 2022 - yet the longer that such second peak might drag out might cause it to fall into a bit of a category that ends up being a supercycle rather than anything really so comparable to 2013 and even including smaller dips.. .. Even your exact proposed scenario of a correction from $65k to $100k down to $40k to $55k (45%-ish) is way the hell of a smaller correction than what had happened in 2013 when the peak was something like $263 and the correction was down to $70-ish (85%-ish).

[JayJuanGee]

I'm sure JJG wants to bat-slap me now.

Hahahahaha

did you say something bad?

As far as I recall, I had been sending you ongoing smerits for your various charts and analysis of the status of bitcoin (whatever variation of topic of the charts), even if I did not always understanding them or agree - and it seems to have become a wee bit more difficult for me to hit the send smerit button after your started acting like an asshole (is that the correct descriptor?)... hahahahahahaha.. was it just me?  not sure?

But hey, I don't consider myself to be a grudge holder in any sense, so I am more than likely to be willing to kiss and make up.. just provide a few more charts, and I might start to feel a wee bit more warm and fuzzy tingilies towards your various analyses, which don't seem bad, FUD spreading, bitcoin naysaying or shitcoin pumpening on their face - unless I am missing something.  

Normal girl explains what's going on with the stonk market:

https://twitter.com/avalonpenrose/status/1354496683938201600

She nailed it.

Really?
Sounds like she has no idea what she’s talking about to me..

That's why Torque labelled her as "normal."  - like an average joe six-pack..

I could not even watch the video beyond about the first 30 seconds, for whatever that is worth... hahahahahaha

I'd really like to see $48k behind us.

What have you got against 48k? Feels like we just got here.

I kind of like 48k, it beats the shit out 3.3k or 1k.

Well, i actually welcome $48k.
...more than $47k  

I’m kinda surprised we are still holding this top..
I think it hasn’t peaked yet at 49 or we’d be pulling back by now..
Think this peak might have a nice break above 50 in it before a nice calming pullback to the low/mid 40s..

Over and over and over..
y’all gotta be used to this by now..

Yes.  I am "used to" not knowing especially when we are talking about short-term btc price directions, and I am also "used to" assigning 50/50 to these kinds of scenarios, with perhaps a 2-3% skewing in one direction or another in the event that I am feeling really confident - which does not seem to arise too frequently.    Go figure?

By the way, I will suggest that in these particular circumstances my 2-3% skewing, to the extent it is going that high, is leaning towards UPpity.. which just seems to indicate to me that we have ongoing and persistent UPpity BTC price pressures, especially being stuck at the top of the price range for so long (what is the current range? $42k to $48.5k-ish - give or take?), but at the same time I appreciate that a correction can happen at any time, but just seems that the BTC price pressures remain skewed slightly in the UPpity direction... and yeah, I know that there are a lot more folks who are way more cock-sured about BTC's short-term price direction, and I have never really fallen in that kind of a camp since getting acquainted with king daddy.

[Richy_T]

I just looked and saw that I just recently passed up chartbuddy for my number of posts, but chartbuddy has been inactive for more than 1,000 days.  No big deal.  I would rather see chartbuddy back and posting regularly than to have some kind of leadership in the number of posts arena.    

You had a bit of a hand. Early Chartbuddy hosted images on my own server. Even though those images are long gone, I'm still getting hits from the image cache on this site. I was clearing old posts out occasionally to reduce this. I suspect you've probably gone way past what you needed to anyway though given how prolific you are

[JayJuanGee]

I just looked and saw that I just recently passed up chartbuddy for my number of posts, but chartbuddy has been inactive for more than 1,000 days.  No big deal.  I would rather see chartbuddy back and posting regularly than to have some kind of leadership in the number of posts arena.    

You had a bit of a hand. Early Chartbuddy hosted images on my own server. Even though those images are long gone, I'm still getting hits from the image cache on this site. I was clearing old posts out occasionally to reduce this. I suspect you've probably gone way past what you needed to anyway though given how prolific you are

For the most part, I do attempt to think (and sometimes even feel - admittedly) about the contents of my posts before writing them out - so there is that angle... which seems much more difficult to ascribe such characteristicas to the "need-to-be resuscitated CB."  

I (that would NOT be the "royal I") look forward to the day that WO-ers are going to be able to post:  "It's alive!!!!!" (#nohomo) in reference to that lil fiend (unfeeling as it likely is), aka CB.  

[Richy_T]

The interesting thing to me is that previous ATHs seemed a bit crazy and surprising. So far, 48k feels like "Yeah, we're here so what's next?"

[Richy_T]

Now I want to see her post a tweet explaining bitcoin.

This one is still out there...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4APcgsRdW6w

[Hueristic]

Silk.Road.2021.1080p.Bluray.DTS-HD.MA.5.1.X264-EVOx