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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26337042 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
cAPSLOCK
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June 11, 2021, 01:43:14 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), Torque (1), modrobert (1)

I would think that in a place like this most of us are awake.  But I could be wrong.

We are in a global war gentlemen.  Do you all know that?

No, I am not being hyperbolic.  Understandable that you would think so.

I am thinking about writing a longer tome about it, as there are MANY facets to what I am seeing, political, economic, etc.

Think about this:  We have been thinking for many decades that the next war would be this global disaster with cities going up in great plumes of radioactive explosions, perhaps with great armies moving into the battlefield like the most recent wars past.

Yet we have not.  Pax Americana was enforced by concentrated surgical strikes and economic hegemony.  So different a world that the one prior that the masses could be lulled into a sense that it was actual peace, when indeed we have been fighting non-stop for a century nearly.

And the world has changed on almost every front in that time.  We have become a connected world of information, and just as our jobs (many of them) have morphed into pure data, so has the fight.  The way this war is being fought is so different from every one before that it is not even recognizable.

Just as EVERY war before the great two world wars was entirely different than those conflicts, the war we are in today looks nothing like those wars, at least not yet.  And I believe the goal of those pulling the levers is to fight it with as few casualties as possible.  Just look at how Covid was engineered.

I am not going to go deep on this here...  but there is a part of it that should be becoming obvious to us humble bitcoiners in 3... 2... 1...

We are about to be dragged onto the battlefield whether we want to be or not.  And it might get messy for us.

Next front?  They are beginning to call the Miami bitcoin conference a "Super Spreader" event.  One headline even called the attendees "Anarchists".  The global forces behind the war we are in have a very specific plan for the economy of the Earth, including a global tax, as well as CDBCs allowing them to redistribute wealth by central control.  The media (absolutely compromised, and a central front in the war) is going to start spinning up every argument possible about the evils of bitcoin.  We ain't seen nothin' yet.

We are natural enemies of the powers that be.  We always knew it.  But shit is getting very VERY real.

Oh, and they are almost certainly in here with us too.  You should suspect me of being a possible spook for example, with all my love of the banks, etc. Wink.  And I will return the favor.  But we must also remain vigilant to not be divided.  I DO NOT CARE if you like big blocks (and you cant deny?). I do not care about your personal politics.  We are brothers in digital arms. 

Good luck to us!

Oh, and by the way...

We win.

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Arriemoller
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June 11, 2021, 01:50:31 PM
Last edit: June 11, 2021, 03:09:45 PM by Arriemoller
Merited by Dabs (1)

  ^ Out of merits unfortunately, but have some imaginary ones. Many of them.
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June 11, 2021, 02:01:03 PM

I don't like the look of that last spike, might not mean people are moving wallet BTC to short on exchange, but something is up.

The price is moving, people started transacting again and.. the hash rate was falling yesterday by quite a lot.

Ah, yes, miners are having problems, and waiting for lower difficulty settling in.

Sure there might be some supposedly short term mining drama, but seems like a BIG SO FUCKING WHAT.

3/4 of this difficulty period had already run, and the hash rate and block times had mostly been flat throughout, and then in the past couple of days, it looks like there might possibly be around a minus 4% difficulty adjustment that will take place on Sunday.  Does not seem to be much of a change, and surely even within difficulty periods we see increases and decreases in hashrate, but the difficulty adjustments seem to work like a charm as well in terms of there potentially being costs to any kinds of attempts at longer term mining manipulations or chicanery...   

Showing current happenings and projections:
https://diff.cryptothis.com/

these difficulty adjustments are absolutely amazing, and pretty much takes the wind of the sails of so many ill founded accusations regarding hypothetical perilous effects of bitcoin mining blah blah blah.

Showing historical ups and downs in the difficulty adjustments and the associated hashrates

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

Didn’t the Big Blockers win, I am sure they did,  Bitcoin Cash?  Grin

Exactamente!!!!!

They did win.... but it is called bcash, and they got two versions of that (so we could say bcashes or bcash x2 or bcash2.. but whatever, they are be dee winners to be able to carry out their visions of the future of sound money and "on chain" super highway transactions and whatever else they believe to be going to attract the masses to their better mouse trap(s) soon.tm
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June 11, 2021, 02:01:26 PM


Explanation
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June 11, 2021, 02:21:33 PM

I don't like the look of that last spike, might not mean people are moving wallet BTC to short on exchange, but something is up.

The price is moving, people started transacting again and.. the hash rate was falling yesterday by quite a lot.

Ah, yes, miners are having problems, and waiting for lower difficulty settling in.

It’s because several Chinese provinces have told miners to cease mining. They are turning off machines & ready to relocate.

Does this include the big miners using their own hydropower installations? If so, seems like a stupid decision.


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3136780/chinas-bitcoin-crackdown-pushes-miners-out-xinjiang-qinghai-baidu-and

Oh shit, LFC.. Did you say that China bans bitcoin?  OMG what we gonna do?  This has never happened before.




By the way, I will acknowledge that China appears to be ramping up their level of severity in the actual "China bans bitcoin" (for reals this time) arena.  Yet, it does not hurt to reiterate how it seems that their "china bans bitcoin" in late 2016 really fucked over quite a few of their peeps because as a result of the "china bans bitcoin" that time, they likely had quite a few regular folks (rather than the elites) who had quite a few of their funds (anything then on China exchanges) frozen up for something like a year - and seems like it was more than a year.. and guess what happened in 2017 during that time that some china regular peeps had their funds locked up on exchanges?  sure some of them were able to still make sure that they had bitcoin exposure by going through local bitcoins and perhaps some other means, but it did seem that their late 2016  "china bans bitcoin" was problematic and impactful.. but not really problematic and impactful on bitcoin overall, but instead problematic and impactful on certain parts of their citizens.
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June 11, 2021, 02:26:40 PM
Last edit: June 11, 2021, 02:37:22 PM by Torque

so, here we are again, discussing block size while the next big bitcoin upgrade is just 140 signaling blocks away.

And once again, the vocal "we" that wants to endlessly debate that shit has ZERO, LESS THAN ZERO control over it...but with hubris thinks that they have some control.

And trying to convince other users that also have ZERO control is futile and a waste of time and effort.
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June 11, 2021, 02:31:32 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1), modrobert (1)

OT: This is the ultimate red pill, the ultimate "ah ha" moment.

And you can no longer vote against it. They will print and spend regardless of who is in office. Once you "get" this, you soon realize that there are only so many ways out of their system. Bitcoin is one of those ways.

"Big government only sees itself. It is the ultimate narcissist, everything else exists for its benefit.  

Think about this...with massive government, the people are the budget. We’re little hash marks on a piece of paper, little items in a multi-trillion dollar lobbyist giveaway, all devolving us into nothing more than a product to manage, a product to distribute, a product to tax, and a product to exploit for political and financial gain all along the way.

The size of government itself and its contempt for the people it’s supposed to represent has made it inevitable that they hardly see us as human beings at all. No doubt they see us as hamsters in the wheel, all to fund an ever-expanding bureaucracy.

In fact, the endless spending is a representation of the denigration of humanity at every level, and it all happens when the government becomes an insatiable monolith."


-Tammy Bruce

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June 11, 2021, 02:38:57 PM


The guy seems clueless. If a 'price crash' is a reason to forbid it, you should forbid the financial markets  Huh Roll Eyes


But the government can always step in and bail out all those rich people who made stupid high-risk bets with poor peoples' money doncha know?
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June 11, 2021, 02:41:12 PM


Does this include the big miners using their own hydropower installations? If so, seems like a stupid decision.

Definitely the kind of idiocy that can only come from a command-and-control economy.
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June 11, 2021, 02:42:20 PM

oooh shiat, thats true Shocked Grin


https://twitter.com/Bitcoin_ator/status/1403017092056616966
philipma1957
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June 11, 2021, 02:44:26 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

the builders thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5314398.0

these cheap nodes that mine at a small profit can be in 10 thousand homes.

building a super node with 32mb blocks would mean using 8tb ssds in arrays

you would need more than 300mb internet speed.

I loaded a node/wallet on a thread ripper about 18 months ago

used a threadripper 3970 with 128gb ram

used 200mb internet and a 2tb nvme m.2 ssd

took 2 hours to synch it.

the time was 2 hours due to a 100mb switch I downloaded at a constant 80-90mb. it was about 300gb

but if we had a 32mb block thread it would be 16x the size
take 32 hours to download
and use 4.8tb

if it were a 96mb block
it takes 96 hours to download

and use 13.4tb

so that would mean at least two 8tb ssds in an array to give 16tb
maybe the 2000 usd threadripper the 3970 is good enough
maybe the 128gb ram is enough.

but I would need to have built a 9 k rig to do a node.

i dont need my full node (which i use purely for validating my own transactions) to run on a rPi, but it at least needs to be able to run on a (probably beefy) commodity computer and be able to sync from scratch in a reasonable time. so i dont mind needing a 3-4k (or even 10k) computer to run a node purely for my own verification, but once you need business class internet and seriously potent server gear thats when i have issues. i will need to trust other nodes at that point. SPV clients have thier place but not as my main check for my transactions and balances. i suppose spinning up AWS type stuff for a personal verification node is a possibility but that seems drastic and likely expensive plus i like my gear in house.

blocks at its current size may have issues but they work for me at this point and thats good enough for now. high fees at the moment? pay up, wait, or go home: pretty simple. ill wait for the bulging brains types to figure the best way forward.

edit: slow and steady. this is Prod after all. i like my coin STABLE. let the alts blow up their blockchains. believe me its nice to have paper wallets from 2011 that are as safe and usable as the day i printed them. cant say that for a lot (likely most) shitcoins from back in the day, or even more recent ones.


If you want to be all btc.

Have a few hodl wallets.

paper ,trezor, core

and have liquid btc on an exchange.

Personally I have run nodes on really good pcs and on the new apollo with many inbetween.

I like running on the rasp/arm apollo it uses 10 watts and does the job. Plus it mines. It is due to become an ln node. It is possible that 10,000 of these could be in the world in a year or so.

We would not be able to have 10000 small form pc nodes like a dell with an i7 a 2tb ssd  and 32 gb ram with 100 mbs internet.

basically it is less affordable.

question how many nodes do we have and where to find a node number chart.

do we have :

1,000
5,000
10,000
25,000
50,000
100,000

the higher number would be an argument favoring the low block size we currently have.

it would be a nice point to assist the block size discussion.
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June 11, 2021, 02:45:19 PM

What I mean are Bitcoin mining facilities with their own hydropower (water power) installations using small river as energy source as part of the land they own or lease, like this one:
https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2018/1/17/inside-the-world-of-chinese-bitcoin-mining

No one is stealing energy when they generate their own power (or build mining facility close to existing hydropower plant with contract to mine energy overproduction), and shutting down just means the river continues to flow through the plant without turbine, no environmental gain.

It was my understanding that these hydro-power installations were mostly built in anticipation of needed demand (or arguably misallocated resources - see the ghost cities) and were just being used where they would otherwise be idle rather than built specifically by miners. I could see some idiot bureaucrat making a boneheaded decision in that case.
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June 11, 2021, 02:46:43 PM

Jack Dorsey has hinted that Twitter will integrate the Lightning Network.  Smiley

https://www.coindesk.com/dorsey-suggests-twitter-lightning-network-integration

He is such an interesting "hero" in the BTC space.  He is seemingly anti a lot of the right-libertarian/anarchist vibe so strong in the Bitcoin world.  He seems a bonafide techno-leftist, and yet he has very FIRMLY fallen in with the maxi sort of position.
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June 11, 2021, 02:57:24 PM
Last edit: June 11, 2021, 03:07:47 PM by Richy_T


It would have been interesting to see if they took BTC as is and only added bigger blocks, but that's not what they did, so here we are and the market has spoken.

Meh, segwit really isn't that interesting. While it's not disastrous, It adds technical debt because it does things in a kludgy way and the things it does bring to the table can be (and have been) implemented in better ways. Now, that typically means hard forks so could they have been implemented on Bitcoin? We'll never know.

It's definitely clear that forks that don't carry the BTC symbol or have the blessing of Core start a long way behind and hash is always going to be hugely important. It's clear to me that, as AlcoHoDL suggests, increasing the block size limit is inevitable at some point so I think it's far from a dead issue. Bitcoin is still permissionless and to act like all those who believe some kind of change is the block size limit is a good idea got exiled to BCH island is asinine.
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June 11, 2021, 03:01:35 PM


Explanation
philipma1957
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June 11, 2021, 03:05:56 PM

37k and hodling

not bad.
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June 11, 2021, 03:07:51 PM

Jack Dorsey has hinted that Twitter will integrate the Lightning Network.  Smiley

https://www.coindesk.com/dorsey-suggests-twitter-lightning-network-integration

He is such an interesting "hero" in the BTC space.  He is seemingly anti a lot of the right-libertarian/anarchist vibe so strong in the Bitcoin world.  He seems a bonafide techno-leftist, and yet he has very FIRMLY fallen in with the maxi sort of position.


Piffy paf wing wang...

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June 11, 2021, 03:11:37 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

37k and hodling

not bad.

$37k won't hold and we all know it.
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June 11, 2021, 03:15:00 PM
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https://twitter.com/MarcusSpallek/status/1402717041694494722
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June 11, 2021, 03:15:13 PM

It will not be very many years before tech gets to where we can move the blocksize up.

So I think it is still worth talking about.

-Currently I am mining on a 32thread 16 core CPU I bought for $700.  In a number of years 16 core cellphone processors will be a thing. (Not for mining for the most part, but for all the hashing done to validate things quicly enough)
-$400 will get you a 16T hard drive today.
-5G has Terabyte speeds at low latency WITHOUT WIRES.

For reference, the RPi 4 is based on the ARM-Cortex A72 which is from 2014. The Raspberry Pi computers are not designed to be bleeding edge and they are (I believe) run with a small technical team which means it takes time for them to get to market. Also, I'm not sure how much it's changed but I seem to recall they had trouble getting certain technical specs from the manufacturers.
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