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Question: New ATH today?
Yes - 10 (66.7%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25461800 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13+ users deleted.)
LFC_Bitcoin
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July 28, 2021, 07:12:22 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (1), UnDerDoG81 (1), serveria.com (1), strawbs (1), Farmer Bill (1), Copetech (1)

Just a text book dead cat bounce. Scheduled dumping will soon commence. See you at 4 digits.

Oh shut up, BillyzeroCoiner.
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July 28, 2021, 07:29:19 PM


Just one more "liquidity injector" printing their own institutional tokens that will never be backed by actual bitcoins.

I am not sure this is the case. Bitcoin is hard money, no printing is possible, leveraged position must be funded.

Let’s keep it simple
When I buy a share of this mutual fund, ProFund buy a futures, the futures market maker buys a bitcoin.
Hence, no leverage, no printing, no dilution.

Yes lets keep it simple just like NotBakkt and CME create liquidity by selling non existent tokens that suck market cap from the real deal.

Try the smoke and mirrors on the weak minded it doesn't work on me.

There is NO funding going on.

Unless you call the institutional filling their bags with the real thing while they make it legal for the sheeple to buy these bullshit tokens instead.
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July 28, 2021, 08:01:27 PM


Explanation
UnDerDoG81
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July 28, 2021, 08:02:24 PM

Bitcoin dominance is rising and near 50%.
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July 28, 2021, 08:12:58 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), JayJuanGee (1)

Looks like some of Muskyboy's Corporate welfare is getting revoked.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/07/ajit-pai-apparently-mismanaged-9-billion-fund-new-fcc-boss-starts-cleanup/



Who needs a college degree when your born rich?
Maybe they'll go after his Tesla welfare checks too???

The real Elon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-FGwDDc-s8

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July 28, 2021, 08:24:06 PM

Not sure if this really counts as news to those present...

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July 28, 2021, 08:41:31 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), strawbs (2), vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1), Farmer Bill (1)

Hey WOers. Real life has taken me away from here for the last >month so unfortunately I haven't been able to read or write much.

However, for the first time in ages I sold a little bit of btc and spent the proceeds on a few new toys - I don't want to disclose exact details. But what I do want to stress is that IT'S OK TO SELL A BIT NOW AND THEN!

friends1980's earlier post caused me to check to see that I've been knocking around here for 8 years now, which is insane (in a good way). But I've hodled (mostly) and have not really enjoyed many benefits of seeing my net worth multiply, especially since I think I had become preoccupied with not wanting to see my stash reduce, in terms of numbers of btc. But this small sale of btc has allowed me to extract some real enjoyment, experiences and value that I wouldn't have had if I had kept on hodling all of my stash.

Sure, I only sold a tiny, tiny bit - but it was enough to treat myself to sufficient material gains and experiences to be deemed justifiable. I now kind of wish I hadn't been so inflexible in the past.

So, if you've made some gains over the last few years, don't feel too bad about cashing out a bit (but only a little bit!) and enjoying it now, in the moment - after all, none of us know how long we're going to be around and there's no point taking your private keys to your grave.

Of course, keep on hodling, but treat yourself a bit too if you're lucky enough to be in a position to do so. We deserve it, after all the shit we've been through!!

Sure, if you have BTC and you are greatly in profits, then it is good to shave some BTC off along the way, and so I have no problem with that.

I do have a bit of a problem to provide some kind of global assertion that this is the time to be selling, after we had a 56% price correction and we happen to be currently bouncing around in about a 40% price correction zone and likely in a bull market.

So, sure each of us might have our own conclusions, and some of us might believe that the bullrun for this cycle is over.. so there might be some erroneous and some good reasons to sell, and some folks might have come to a realization that they have not sold any BTC for 6-8 years or whatever, so those folks would  likely come to differing conclusions regarding whether there is any need to time the market in terms of their shaving off some profits here and there.. and so there is likely no real blanket answer regarding what to do exactly.. .

For example guys like me, have been selling small amounts all the way up from $250 to $64,895, so in the last couple of months I have been buying way the fuck more than selling, merely based on BTC's recent price price direction, so of course, if I bought all the way down to $28,600, then my system already allows me to have been selling on the way up.. but my amounts are only meant as kinds of systematic maintenance rather than feeling any kind of emotional or financial need to take some value off the table due to overly deferring gratification... so yeah, if someone (such as yourself, perhaps? strawbs) has failed/refused to take profits all along, then you may well not be in a very good position in terms of suggesting that now is a better time to do it rather than some guys who might not be in the same place as you.

By the way, personally, in about late April, I did enter into some various kinds of contracts that do cause me to have to have more cash available than what I would usually have needed to have, and largely I had been considering to NOT change any aspects of BTC management systems that I already have in place, but the BTC's price performance ended up largely moving against me by the time I made some tweaks to my system in terms of moving funds around - so sure, with me, there has also been some juggling, but I deny cashing out any extra BTC (at least not so far), and so far, I have just been moving funds around.. but NOT really in preferable conditions when we had the BTC price correct by 56% during that time.

At some point, I will probably provide some additional details regarding what I did (or what I am in the midst of doing), but surely I do not want to say too much while the process is still playing out...

Yup, just to clarify I also agree that it's not a good time to sell, since I firmly believe that we're still in a bull market and that this bull could well have a significant way to run, way beyond the $60k-ish we saw back in April. I expect (hope?) for $200k by the end of this year, but that is based on nothing noteworthy (and certainly no sorcery on my part!). But a serendipitous opportunity arose (unrelated to btc) which I couldn't resist and which comes along very rarely, and which needed fiat. So it's likely I would have sold some btc no matter what the price.  But as you say, I admit that I have an advantage of having made early gains, whereas if I'd only recently become a bitcoiner then I surely would have acted differently.  "Horses for courses" as they say in these parts.

For sure, sometimes I do NOT want to get into too many personal details regarding whether I might now ONLY be playing with house money or if there might be some kind of average cost per BTC that might be worth proclaiming.

In recent times, I have been gravitating towards using an average cost of $1k per BTC - as a kind of short-hand easy way to approximate cost per BTC and also profits.. but for artistic or even argumentative purposes, I may even want to tweak my theoretical average cost per bitcoin up or down in order to merely attempt to make some kinds of points that fairly could be reflective a lot of versions of me (or people who may have entered into bitcoin at similar times as me and likely gotten similar - or variations of the performance that I have actually achieved personally - and again, my personal specifics might not really be that relevant regarding if my average cost per BTC happens to be $500, $750, $1k, $1,500 or some variation of any of those.. but surely, I don't really mind using $1k as a kind of way of making general ballpark points that are still pretty damned accurate in the whole scheme of things.

Also, even though I attempt to present myself somewhat consistently, over the years, any observer (even including my lil selfie) should be able to appreciate that I have had some changes in my perspectives in terms of how I present factors that should be considered based on factors that I am trying to consider... so probably there can be some value in having had gone through some experiences, attempted to articulate various perspectives in this forum (this thread) and in other places and attempted to learn by going through those considerations and reconsiderations.

So, yeah, none of us should be attempting to get too far ahead of ourselves ion terms of trying to figure out if there might be some kind of individual tweak that we might need to make... to what we are actually doing or what we are planning to do and what we consider to be important relevant factors for our own way of contemplating the matter - and I still have to say that if I use $1k as a kind of ballpark consideration for my average cost per BTC, I also feel that there is something also that remains stuck in my consideration framework in regards to $5k BTC prices... that's a 5x return, and should I not resist getting stymied into doing whatever the fuck with my bitcoin so long as I have at least profits, and for sure 5x or more in profits should cause me hardly any inhibition in terms if I feel some kind of desire to cash out some value here and there in order to get something that I want... I should not have any guilt, right?  Again, that would be 5x or higher for profits.

One of my own potentially problematic areas is that I have decided to allow for a kind of moving goal post to not get stuck on a $5k price because with the passage of time, that $5k just starts to look unreasonably too low - especially in the past 7 months or so.  So, since I started to consider that it would be unrealistic for me to be getting caught up too much upon a stagnant price, I started to consider the 208-week moving average as my new floating amount of BTC price that I should not feel any kinds of hesitation at all if I am selling BTC so long as the BTC price is at least above the 208-week moving average.  Accordingly, in about March 2020, the 208-week moving average was around $5k, but in current times, the 208-week moving average is just below $14k...   So, I am not sure if I am being practical or not, and if push comes to shove, and BTC prices were to crash below the 208-week moving average, but it still was above $5k, might I still rationalize my way into selling some BTC if for some reason I had some perceptions of real world needs?  I am thinking that I would, and in that regard, I would not be really selling BTC based on any kind of panic or anything like that, but instead, I would be selling based on some kind of real world need that I might have (whether that is an emergency situation in which I have lost access to all other cashflow sources or some other kind of less than preferable situation).

So what I am suggesting is that even though in seemingly non emergency situations, I can probably use the 208-week moving average as a guide for making sure that I am NOT selling below that point, but at the same time, I should not feel guilty if I sell some BTC so long as the BTC price is above that 208-week moving average price.  

So I have been creating these kinds of frameworks for myself and my perception of my own circumstances (and of course, attempting to share such frameworks in my discussions of BTC strategies), while at the same time attempting to modify my perspectives in regards to the frameworks that I end up considering imposing on myself (while at the same time appreciating that I have full discretion over myself and over whatever I do, including if I were to choose to override my own frameworks).  

So currently, I am thinking that the 208-week is my perception of a BTC price bottom in a bear market (which again is currently just below $14k), and my current perception of a BTC price bottom in a bull market is to use the 104-week moving average, which is currently just below $21k... and surely, currently, I consider that we are most likely in a bull market and not in a bear market.

I wish I could share more details and even photos of my reasons for selling a little bit of corn, but you never know who's lurking here.

For sure any of us can get excited about various material things (goods or services), and sure there might be some objective value in terms of your consumption preferences, but in the end, I doubt that any of the objective considerations matter as much as how you might determine the value... so for sure, no need to justify regarding your level of cccccciittttttteeeee, if any, that you are either getting or expecting to get from your BTC transaction (you sell out!!!!!!   Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry).. hahahahahaha


So while it does hurt a little to see the price having increased a few percentage points since I sold some, I have a new uplifting toy to play with which I see as a present to myself as reward for hodling through those viscous and depressing bear markets of the past.

For sure, some of us might establish a kind of sell window.. so let's say that I want to get $5k in the next two weeks, then I might sell $2.5k right away, and attempt to be strategic about selling the other $2.5k maybe in two or three batches.  There certainly remains quite a bit of discretion, and it must feel a whole hell of a lot better to shave some BTC off if the BTC is going up rather than if it is going down.. but sure, in any event, there still can be some difficulties in determining if you should just sell all right away or try to be strategic about the matter, because sometimes trying to be strategic could end up backfiring too, if the BTC price trend of UPpity all of a sudden reverses... so who knows?  who knows? especially regarding the short-term.

In other words, it's nice to use a bit of our gains to have some fun now and then  Grin

You have been in bitcoin about a half of a year or so longer than me, and I did not really tell anyone (in my real life) about my buying into bitcoin for the first 8-9 months or so, as I was buying and as the price had dropped from $1,163 to sub $400s, so my BTC average price was probably nearly about $600 when I started to tell people about bitcoin in late 2014, and the BTC price was sub $400 (about $385 as I recall specifically).  

Anyhow, so many people either ignored me completely or outright poo poo-ed my sharing of such "insight", and just consider that some of those people might have spent their next year investing in stocks, or gold or houses or whatever, and if they had just taken a few thousand dollars (let's say $5k) and put it into bitcoin in either late 2014 or almost any time in 2015 (let's say that they ended up with an average cost of $400 per coin, which would have gotten them about 12.5 BTC ($5k/$400) (which, by the way, would NOT be very unrealistic at all since for the vast majority of 2015, the BTC price was in the mid $200s), in these days, they would have been able to UP their level of consumption like drunken sailors and sure if they had spent (or assessed the value of) their 12.5 BTC at the $64,895 top, they would have had $811k, but still who cares?  They still would have been balling, even if they only were to spend (or assess) their BTC value at $35k - which still would have been $437.5k... .. so yeah, shave a bit off, who cares, there is a lot of profits in there from a hypothetical $5k investment in 2014/2015 (and of course, strawbs, your timeline is earlier than mine or the Bitcoin knowledge that I had attempted to share with several of my friends/relative in late 2014).
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July 28, 2021, 09:01:35 PM


Explanation
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July 28, 2021, 09:07:40 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

Just a text book dead cat bounce. Scheduled dumping will soon commence. See you at 4 digits.

Would be delighted if you'd just fuck off and only come back to post here when we hit $9600 to tell how you've bought in with a $100.

In the meantime we've got lakes, ranches, farms, seasteads, Lambos, John Deere and fine dining to attend to.
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July 28, 2021, 09:11:10 PM





Elizabeth Warren FUD again. Who cares what that boomer thinks, really.

HFSP.

How did that previously normal person transition to a Marxist Senator and who the fuck voted her in.
 
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July 28, 2021, 09:18:36 PM
Merited by bitebits (2)


https://twitter.com/intocryptoverse/status/1420433117593100302?s=21
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July 28, 2021, 09:19:28 PM

We also immediately rose to the $40 600 mark, with almost no pullbacks, confident and lightning fast. Most likely, soon we will break through this resistance level and rush to at least $46 000, and there we are not far from the new ATH.

$46k happens to be the number that I am looking at too, in terms of confirming that our $28,600 bottom is "in."  I have little desire to presume that I know shit regarding whether we will get above $46k in the near future, but I expect that I will feel some additional confidence regarding the bottom for this particular correction...   The situation seems to be "pending", no?  I am still not going to presume.. I have seen too many fake outs in the past, so I hate to prematurely presume too much.


I can imagine how hard it is now for those who sold their bitcoins for $32 000 - $30 000, thinking that bitcoin will go for $20 000.

I agree.  It's not looking too good for them at the moment.

But maybe, like dumb and dumber, they can still appreciate that there is "still a chance."

hahahaha

In any event, I would expect that it would suck to be part of dumb and dumber like hope.

By the way, my own personal little fantasy (or would it be like a mini wet dream, regarding the short-term?) would be to see this BTC price run take us to $50k or perhaps $51k, and then correct down to $41k.. and then figure out what is going to happen from there.... Surely, it is really hard to know what is going to happen, but it does seem that we currently have some UPpity momentum - while at the same time, experience likely shows a lot of us that in bitcoinlandia what appears to be momentum can reverse at any time... and without notice -  even though there are going to be some sorcerer-type peeps (or wannabes) who proclaim that they see what is going to happen in BTC prices before it happens, even though many times I have seen that when all is said and done, the odds of getting short-term BTC price predictions correct tend to not be much better than 50/50... so may as well flip a coin rather than assigning high probabilities to what any of us might "think is going to happen" regarding short-term BTC price movements.
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July 28, 2021, 09:26:09 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (5), friends1980 (1)



https://twitter.com/martiniguyyt/status/1420459492500717569?s=21

Really had an amazing loud laugh with this one ….
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July 28, 2021, 09:57:55 PM
Last edit: July 28, 2021, 10:10:49 PM by JayJuanGee

I dont want to be that guy but this situation reminds me of last weeks bear hopium where it was Breaking 29.5k anytime soon and they were so sure. We know the range between 29k and 41k is the zone where they squeeze out both sides. İf we break 41-42k I am convinced.

Personally, on the upside of the BTC price range, I think that the number is higher than your consideration of $41k-$42k.. .and should be more like $46k.. but hey, it is difficult to really know, except to speculate regarding how much is enough to really "break out of the range."... I suppose also that I am picking $46k because then there seems to be a decent amount of break above the range.. rather than as likely to get sucked back in.. but hey, my number is not much more than a guess either.

So $40k is the new $60k?
What's dumber than being a bear in an early bull market?  Roll Eyes

Some peeps don't believe that we are in a bull market.

Some peeps have concluded that 56% price corrections (and perhaps other factors) do not happen in a bull market.

For sure, you OOM can appreciate that I have been quite disinclined to conclude that we are in a bear market, but surely, part of the reason that so many shorts got reckt in recent days is because there seems to have been a wee bit jumping to conclusions about our supposedly being in a bear market.. so there are a decent number of folks who are also considering the existence of such a current "bear market" status.

I wonder if there is any DEX that is safe and allows Derivatives or Future trading with a good leverage?  Roll Eyes

I guess not.
At least with good liquidity.
But happy to be proven wrong on this.
CEX are too good for the moment for DEX to really pick up.
Maybe with a tightening of KYC/AML constraint we will see dex rise..



Since we are here:
I am less active on the forum for a reason:



This is a secret location.

I decided to use the compulsory WO hand sign, as the classic Italian stallion sign is less known:



Edit: hint it’s not a tail.

Seems like I learn something new every day, especially when trying to keep up with the WO contents...

Accordingly, whoazza!! - I had not realized (non mi rendevo conto) that "Italian stallions" had such difficulties walking in a straight line. (There is probably a reason for that... #nohomo)  Go figure?
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July 28, 2021, 10:01:26 PM


Explanation
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July 28, 2021, 10:20:47 PM


Before you guys get too optimistic about the next ATH...

It will be a tough decision to make if the price of Bitcoin reaches $1million many investors will become more greasy



And if I make so many profits, then will spear some for charity




You have been warned.
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July 28, 2021, 10:35:12 PM
Merited by Farmer Bill (1)

Oh god the HATEFUL Mt.Gox that ruined many futures....

We already covered that topic, you dweeb.

Blame MTGOX for your failure and refusal to buy BTC... classical disgruntled no coiner move.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Also, failure/refusal to take responsibility for your own lack of preparation for UPpity. Hard to feel sorry for you.

Just a text book dead cat bounce. Scheduled dumping will soon commence. See you at 4 digits.

Would be delighted if you'd just fuck off and only come back to post here when we hit $9600 to tell how you've bought in with a $100.

In the meantime we've got lakes, ranches, farms, seasteads, Lambos, John Deere and fine dining to attend to.

These must be dire times, and too bad the fun stuff has been removed from the list.

 Cry Cry Cry Cry
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July 28, 2021, 11:01:25 PM


Explanation
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I need 3 Bitcoins. Urgently ..


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July 28, 2021, 11:10:59 PM
Merited by NotATether (3)


We already covered that topic, you dweeb.

Blame MTGOX for your failure and refusal to buy BTC... classical disgruntled no coiner move.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Also, failure/refusal to take responsibility for your own lack of preparation for UPpity. Hard to feel sorry for you.



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July 29, 2021, 12:01:34 AM


Explanation
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