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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25498442 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
hisslyness
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September 12, 2021, 11:33:06 PM
Last edit: September 12, 2021, 11:59:21 PM by hisslyness
Merited by vapourminer (1)

On another note, I am waiting on 3 new 1TB SSD drives and a dedicated UPS. Will be running them in RAID 1 with one spare, not much progress for now. box setup will be i5 (8th Gen) and 16GB RAM

cAPSLOCK, did you have your bitcoind running on the same box as lnd or they are separate?

I am planning on running this on Linux not Windows. I haven't had a full time linux box in the house since Slackware 13.37.... hmm just notice Slackware last major release was 2016...


Real servers run real UNIX (or Linux).
I would reconsider the SSD and use spinning discs. SSD's are shitty when it comes to data recovery and "disk crashes". i would also change the drive firmware to less frequent head parking values, to minimize wear on the drives. Lately, espicially since introduction of "green drives", manufacturers try to save power by parking heads in much shorter intervals.

jBreher would know a lot more about that, iirc.

three SSDs in raid 1 with a hot spare.. seems pretty solid setup to me but im no expert.

as far as data recovery with lightning wouldnt that be useless anyway? as by the time you could recover the lightning data the channel would be closed on the other end anyway. wouldnt it? not too familiar with lightning.

From my understanding, they don't recommend backing up and restoring the channel.db as this can be outdated and causing you to close/broadcast an older state and in turn loose all your funds in that channel. (You should be backing up seed phrases and SCB)

I wanted my box to have as much fault tolerance as possible. I want to avoid having to restore from a backup.

I did consider spinning hard drives, but wanted to make this as fast as possible. 100% aware of the unreliable nature of SSD drives. I am currently replacing about 1 drive every week now...
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September 12, 2021, 11:34:50 PM

I blame @jjg influence for those of you who did not at least dabble.

I am pretty powerful - it seems.

A cock blocker too, apparently.  Whoaza.

Gotta feel badly about that, no?

He/she acted as a profit suppressor in 2021...surely cost you a bunch with all that harping at mere hints of alternatives (the funny thing is who knows what he/she was actually DOING all this time).  Grin

You can talk about and pump your nonsense shitcoins in other threads.. No one is stopping you. 


Go forth. 


Go.. Biodom... go... go...
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September 12, 2021, 11:37:45 PM

Someone put up that roller coaster corn meme. Fits the situation nicely...
This is so strange though... look at the volume on the red candle, and then the volume on the green ones?



Which exchange is that? Volume tells a slightly different story on Bitstamp.

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September 12, 2021, 11:40:25 PM

20 million sats of lightning channels opened to IBEX and OpenNode.com today to support El Salvador.

I'm not buying the dip.  I am building the future.

Will be adding to that in the next few days. Starting my own lnd node.

We should create a WO LN Channels. Create a WO web of LN Channels

That's a GREAT idea!  If each new "member" of the club just opens a channel to the last member we could make a big ring of liquidity.  Particularly if we set WO channels to zero fees.

This site sort of is based on a micro version of that idea, and I find it to be an interesting strategy.  I joined a few of the "swaps" here:

https://lightningnetwork.plus/swaps

We should create a Hub and Spoke Channel, this way there is some redundancy in the event a node with in the WO web is unreachable.

I was thinking 4 channels to other WO LN members and 3 channels external... this will give you at the magical 7 degrees of separation.

On another note, I am waiting on 3 new 1TB SSD drives and a dedicated UPS. Will be running them in RAID 1 with one spare, not much progress for now. box setup will be i5 (8th Gen) and 16GB RAM

cAPSLOCK, did you have your bitcoind running on the same box as lnd or they are separate?

I am planning on running this on Linux not Windows. I haven't had a full time linux box in the house since Slackware 13.37.... hmm just notice Slackware last major release was 2016...



Well my first node was built in a docker container that I made from scratch and run on a rented VPS.  But it was somewhat pricey to keep going, and his was my first project with docker, and it was a nightmare to maintain and update.  I ended up trapped it it because each time I thought about shutting it down fees were high.  Anyway I finally shut the thing down.  It was all running in a single container. Bitcoin Core and LND.  I also cobbled Ride the Lightning into it.

My other node, which I have continued to run is running ion a rPi4.  And it's running the latest Raspiblitz.  That is also running both Bitcoind and LND on the one device.  But it is much easier to maintain, and comes with pretty much all the bells and whistles.  I can reccomend it, for sure. That said, it is not as robust, and I have a good bit of value (but the other one was an order of magnitude bigger) so I have set up some backup strategies including channel backups to google drive as well as backups to a USB key.

One really clever way this node works (and I presume the others like it) is it runs the system from the SD, but keeps all the dynamic data on the USB drive.  I recently finally updated the side from ~500G to a 1T drive.  But the way the system works that is really easy to pull off...  I just booted up a live distro, and used GParted to duplicate the partition to the bigger drive... plugged it in, and it booted right up.  I think it would not be too hard to modify this distro to use a mirrored array, but of course those drives would need to be powered.

But I tentatively feel like the backup strategies for the raspiblitz are pretty effective.  If you keep your seed, and employ channel backups I think you are in decent shape.

Ok, i think i'll end up going down that path, single box with lots of fault tolerance. BTW, did you need to portfoward any ports to the rPi?
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September 12, 2021, 11:40:40 PM

@jjg... I can't..like to quarrel with you a bit too much. #nohomo
That said...bwa-ha-ha.
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September 12, 2021, 11:43:54 PM

I blame @jjg influence for those of you who did not at least dabble.

I am pretty powerful - it seems.

A cock blocker too, apparently.  Whoaza.

Gotta feel badly about that, no?

He/she acted as a profit suppressor in 2021...surely cost you a bunch with all that harping at mere hints of alternatives (the funny thing is who knows what he/she was actually DOING all this time).  Grin

You can talk about and pump your nonsense shitcoins in other threads.. No one is stopping you. 


Go forth. 


Go.. Biodom... go... go...

Profit suppressor??? for everyone 1 person who has made money with shitcoins, there are 100's who has lost big!
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September 12, 2021, 11:48:40 PM

I am just putting this in faith.  Hope it works!

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September 13, 2021, 12:01:33 AM


Explanation
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September 13, 2021, 12:04:00 AM

I blame @jjg influence for those of you who did not at least dabble.

I am pretty powerful - it seems.

A cock blocker too, apparently.  Whoaza.

Gotta feel badly about that, no?

He/she acted as a profit suppressor in 2021...surely cost you a bunch with all that harping at mere hints of alternatives (the funny thing is who knows what he/she was actually DOING all this time).  Grin

You can talk about and pump your nonsense shitcoins in other threads.. No one is stopping you.  


Go forth.  


Go.. Biodom... go... go...

Profit suppressor??? for everyone 1 person who has made money with shitcoins, there are 100's who has lost big!


If you put all your eggs in the same basket... I mean... What do you expect? Newbies always put all their eggs in one basket.

Also DYOR is completely out the window even with older coiners who should know better by now.

The mind is awake.
The hand quakes no longer.
My coin is at peace.
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September 13, 2021, 12:45:24 AM

Ok, i think i'll end up going down that path, single box with lots of fault tolerance. BTW, did you need to portfoward any ports to the rPi?

No need if you're using Tor hidden service.
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September 13, 2021, 12:45:57 AM

everyone 1 person who has made money with shitcoins, there are 100's who has lost big!

Thank you for teh coins Smiley
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September 13, 2021, 12:57:38 AM
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In any event, your squiggly lines deny the presence of that kind of BTC price dynamics involving a $55k to $80k deadman's zone.. even into the coming 3-4 months when you believe this challenge to a new ATH is going to fail.

<...>

**In case you don't know I am referring to: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.

I agreed to this point because bitcoin has already recovered from the old point but did not break out also i don't know but wait 3-4 months  
 like to be $80k is storng zone..  Huh

My sense of a possible deadman's zone building is a wee bit of a SOMA proclamation that attempts to recognize, appreciate and account for historical ways that BTC has behaved in regards to its previous ATHs - the breaking through portion.  

Maybe we could just look at:

early 2013 when BTC broke past $32, it went to $263-ish,
 
late 2013 when BTC broke past $263, it went to $1,163-ish,

early 2017 when BTC broke past $1,163, it went to the mid-$2ks,

late 2020 when BTC broke past $20k, it went to the upper $30ks.  My question is:Why do you not say it went to 64k?

There might be some other examples that are not even so much about breaking above previous ATH, but when BTC prices seem to have some high levels of being held down, then the price catches up to where it should have gone.. so the correction down to upper $20ks/lower $30ks is starting to feel like it may well have been one of those periods of overexuberant correction... just a hunch.. just a hunch..

And sure, ImThour could end up being correct, and bitcoin shirks off its old overexuberant bounce backs after going through what seemed to have been overexcuberant corrections.. perhaps? perhaps?

maybe the odds of a $55k to $80k deadman zone are only 30% to 40%, but still that would be pretty high from my perspective... even 20% odds are not really bad, if you are a bitcoin pessimist (aka nocoiner, precoiner) and you have $100k that you have invested in a variety of nonbitcoin investments, and if you could appreciate what I am saying about odds of BTC UPpity performance - including the possible existence of such deadman's zone between $55k and $80k, it might do you some hedging (and even investment portfolio good) to actually put 1% to 10% (that would be anywhere between $1k to $10k out of your $100k investment portfolio) into bitcoin.. merely based on those kinds of deadman's zone probabilities and of course, we also have the existence of the other currently valid BTC price prediction models that also lead some credibility and decent probabilities to both bitcoin's investment thesis but also likely ongoing UPpity BTC price pressures - already mentioned as: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.... and again justifying the guy with $100k of investments to put somewhere between $1k and $10k of his investment portfolio into bitcoin based on those kinds of persistent underlying aspects of bitcoin.

Unbiased Price Prediction on the basis of Previous Chart Action

Bullish in the Long run.


...
Not gonna read that a lot and not sure how you have that much time to write something like that in a post, kudos lmao.

In other words, you got nuttin.

You

1) refuse to read the text of a post that attempts to directly address points raised by your squiggly lines and words of your post.

and  
2) denigrate my post by asserting that it is too long to read

Hard to treat you seriously in such circumstances.



Also, you wanna make a bet on your price prediction? (as you asked me to do) Nah, right?

I am not making any prediction you diptwat.  I am bringing questions to your prediction, and asserting that you are failing refusing to account for context including current BTC price prediction models.

Instead of explaining why you choose such context and asserted it to be unbiased
or
explaining why you failed and refuse to account for currently valid BTC price prediction models

You mischaracterize my criticism of your stupid-ass lame post as a prediction and you double down on your dumbassedness.

I don't wanna sound negative but the thing is there are opinions.

Nothing wrong with having opinions.  I was largely ONLY asking to 'splain ur lil selfie a wee bit more, including your proclamation of supposed "unbiasness."

And if you judge people by opinions, you aren't doing it right.

I was not judging you.  I was judging your post; however, you subsequent lameass and defensive post is causing me to consider that I may way need to judge you as either being retarded or disingenuine in your interaction regarding your prediction.. including your defensiveness and diversions.

See bold. so it broke 20k jumped to 64k

therefore if it breaks 64k it jumps to 204.8k?

Say by jan 27th 2022 my birthday  Grin. I mean why not?
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September 13, 2021, 12:59:39 AM

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Wearing them to break them in
Can not feel my feet




The Penny Loafer
Full-grain Italian calfskin
Matching Leather sole

edit2: I need some sleep.
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September 13, 2021, 01:01:25 AM


Explanation
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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September 13, 2021, 01:16:26 AM

I've got brand new shoes
Wearing them to break them in
Can not feel my feet




The Penny Loafer
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so a pair of shoes
it is the new lambo now
proof bitcoin is dead
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September 13, 2021, 01:36:31 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Something is stirring on the interwebs...maybe peripheral to bitcoin..or not.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roslynlayton/2021/09/12/its-time-to-end-the-secs-clarity-charade-on-crypto/
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Explanation
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Explanation
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September 13, 2021, 03:03:41 AM


In any event, your squiggly lines deny the presence of that kind of BTC price dynamics involving a $55k to $80k deadman's zone.. even into the coming 3-4 months when you believe this challenge to a new ATH is going to fail.

<...>

**In case you don't know I am referring to: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.

I agreed to this point because bitcoin has already recovered from the old point but did not break out also i don't know but wait 3-4 months  
 like to be $80k is storng zone..  Huh

My sense of a possible deadman's zone building is a wee bit of a SOMA proclamation that attempts to recognize, appreciate and account for historical ways that BTC has behaved in regards to its previous ATHs - the breaking through portion.  

Maybe we could just look at:

early 2013 when BTC broke past $32, it went to $263-ish,
 
late 2013 when BTC broke past $263, it went to $1,163-ish,

early 2017 when BTC broke past $1,163, it went to the mid-$2ks,

late 2020 when BTC broke past $20k, it went to the upper $30ks.  My question is:Why do you not say it went to 64k?

There might be some other examples that are not even so much about breaking above previous ATH, but when BTC prices seem to have some high levels of being held down, then the price catches up to where it should have gone.. so the correction down to upper $20ks/lower $30ks is starting to feel like it may well have been one of those periods of overexuberant correction... just a hunch.. just a hunch..

And sure, ImThour could end up being correct, and bitcoin shirks off its old overexuberant bounce backs after going through what seemed to have been overexcuberant corrections.. perhaps? perhaps?

maybe the odds of a $55k to $80k deadman zone are only 30% to 40%, but still that would be pretty high from my perspective... even 20% odds are not really bad, if you are a bitcoin pessimist (aka nocoiner, precoiner) and you have $100k that you have invested in a variety of nonbitcoin investments, and if you could appreciate what I am saying about odds of BTC UPpity performance - including the possible existence of such deadman's zone between $55k and $80k, it might do you some hedging (and even investment portfolio good) to actually put 1% to 10% (that would be anywhere between $1k to $10k out of your $100k investment portfolio) into bitcoin.. merely based on those kinds of deadman's zone probabilities and of course, we also have the existence of the other currently valid BTC price prediction models that also lead some credibility and decent probabilities to both bitcoin's investment thesis but also likely ongoing UPpity BTC price pressures - already mentioned as: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.... and again justifying the guy with $100k of investments to put somewhere between $1k and $10k of his investment portfolio into bitcoin based on those kinds of persistent underlying aspects of bitcoin.

Unbiased Price Prediction on the basis of Previous Chart Action

Bullish in the Long run.


...
Not gonna read that a lot and not sure how you have that much time to write something like that in a post, kudos lmao.

In other words, you got nuttin.

You

1) refuse to read the text of a post that attempts to directly address points raised by your squiggly lines and words of your post.

and  
2) denigrate my post by asserting that it is too long to read

Hard to treat you seriously in such circumstances.



Also, you wanna make a bet on your price prediction? (as you asked me to do) Nah, right?

I am not making any prediction you diptwat.  I am bringing questions to your prediction, and asserting that you are failing refusing to account for context including current BTC price prediction models.

Instead of explaining why you choose such context and asserted it to be unbiased
or
explaining why you failed and refuse to account for currently valid BTC price prediction models

You mischaracterize my criticism of your stupid-ass lame post as a prediction and you double down on your dumbassedness.

I don't wanna sound negative but the thing is there are opinions.

Nothing wrong with having opinions.  I was largely ONLY asking to 'splain ur lil selfie a wee bit more, including your proclamation of supposed "unbiasness."

And if you judge people by opinions, you aren't doing it right.

I was not judging you.  I was judging your post; however, you subsequent lameass and defensive post is causing me to consider that I may way need to judge you as either being retarded or disingenuine in your interaction regarding your prediction.. including your defensiveness and diversions.

See bold. so it broke 20k jumped to 64k

I was attempting to make a framing, and surely the description of the last prices that happened should not be something that any of us should want to frame in any kind of exaggerating way in order to still be able to attempt to get the meaning from what happened.. and sure we are still in the midst of some of the various price performances.. and sure it is factually accurate that when BTC broke through the previous ATH of $19,666 it did end up going all the way up to $64,895... but it also had some significant corrections along the way and then it also gravitated back down..

.....and in my above attempt at framing the matter, I did not want to exaggerate any case for a situation that we are still within.. .. even thought the part about going to $64,895 did actually happen, tooo.. and if I were trying to make a different point, I would have been more inclined to frame the matter of going from pretty much $10k in early September 2020 to $64,895 in mid April 2021 as an actual factor to consider.. and I have made that kind of point regarding other things that I had been trying to say..

In this case, I am trying to bring some kind of emphasis to the idea of deadman zones that seem to exist in bitcoin when bitcoin is approaching and passing through previous ATH and could happen at other price points as well.... such as breaking above $10k for example and nearly doubling... and surely in late 2020, when we were approaching $19,666 the first time around (returning from a nearly 3 year correction), even when we were in the early stages of getting close to $19,666 (like in the $14k to $15k) price territory, I was already hypothesizing that we were likely going to end up experiencing a deadman's zone between about $17,250 and $23,500 - and of course, history shows that king daddy overshot my idea of a deadman's zone by at least an additional 70%.. and for sure there was a pretty major correction in the from about $42k back down to lower $30ks in January 2021.. even though the BTC price did ultimately continue UPpity and Onwards until reaching $64,895...

But still again we did end up getting caught back up in the upper $20ks and lower to mid $30ks for a couple of months.. and I believe those gravitation back down points are somewhat important for building a foundation for our likely to be next shooting through and noman's land that currently is in a kind of speculative, theoretical and continuing to build up the ammunition kind of way (coiling as Jimbo sometimes likes to emphasize).. .. so hypothesizing something that seems likely to be building up can still be described in a variety of ways that will later become more clear if they end up happening.. and then we get above $80k for example, and then there can be proclamations of either "I told you so" or "that did not end up playing out as bullishly as I had anticipated"... or some other retrospective assessment that also could be difficult to see, even while we are in the midst of it, even though some of us might theorize about that they dynamic that we are having and how the price performance may well play out, even if not even close to guaranteed (but seeming to be like an ongoing and frequent pattern that we tend to see).. blah blah blah.


therefore if it breaks 64k it jumps to 204.8k?

Surely, I do not want to get ahead of my own lil selfie in terms of even some probable upside scenarios that I had already outlined a couple of times and highlighted in one of my recent posts... here.

Say by jan 27th 2022 my birthday  Grin. I mean why not?

Even though even my own estimates are not exactly consistent, it appears that I put greater than $200k scenarios for the whole cycle to be less than 20%... so the higher the number the longer it would likely take to play out.. and sure if we were to end up topping off the cycle during 4th quarter of 2021, then those numbers would likely potentially be smaller than if were were to top off in 1st quarter, 2nd quarter or even as late as the 3rd quarter of 2022.

By the way, your desires to want to place BTC happenings in terms of something like your b-day could well end up limiting your attempts at objectivity or even really attempting to grapple with the kinds of dynamics that go on rather than picking some random date that you feel special about but has no significance for the daddy beyond maybe just being coincidentally where some event might end up falling. after getting all the forces together and peeps playing their various cards that are sometimes successful, failures or some variant between - including possibly having no effect, as well.
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September 13, 2021, 03:51:42 AM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)

I've got brand new shoes
Wearing them to break them in
Can not feel my feet



Get a shoe stretcher and save yourself the pain.



https://www.amazon.com/Shoe-Stretcher-Expander-Widener-shaper/dp/B07XK17S65/
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