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Question: Will we close Nov. at or above Plan B's posited minimum of $98K?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25495558 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Arriemoller
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September 21, 2021, 08:29:35 PM

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  Undecided
Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

 A handsome, tall black fellow, wearing fashionable yet comfortable clothing approaches you from out of nowhere. A well worn tan cowboy hat adorns his head, suggesting an untold history of experiences and legends yet to be revealed.

 You notice the man is carrying two dull circular metal plates, pocked with spherical indentations and scrapes - Clearly having been punished to their material limits.

 The man holds out the two plates, with his left arm - somehow defying the laws of gravity.

 With his right arm, he tips his hat, and mutters "You are going to need these more than I do right now".

 The dark man turns, and walks off into the western sunset.

That's odd, I have always imagined the plates as rectangular.
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September 21, 2021, 08:37:35 PM

that is a trend line... not actual price, it could race up to 200K tomorrow and fall back down to 20K, that chart is just showing the price is trending up.... following the path that fits the price of $11k and $44K
Hopefully, in the rest of this year, the price will get more enthusiasm from big companies or people to invest in bitcoin, and the rally will come again.

Huh?

We are already in the midst of a rally.

Can't you see nuttin?

Sorry for the OT.

No you are not...  Tongue Tongue Tongue





hahahahahaha
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September 21, 2021, 09:01:33 PM


Explanation
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September 21, 2021, 09:15:23 PM

Guess they ran out of funny money. Better run the printers again.
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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September 21, 2021, 09:18:18 PM
Last edit: September 21, 2021, 09:52:15 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  Undecided


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

Oh?

What is a guy to do?

I still believe that the odds of the $28,600 bottom being in are quite a bit above 50%, so what else could any of us expect?

I am not trying to proclaim any kind of sorcery status, buy my previous assertion was that I was going to become quite confident that our $28,600 bottom was in once the BTC price rose above $46k (so maybe I had moved into the 63% confidence arena), and not only did we rise above $46k, we touched upon $53k, so largely that caused my confidence to go even higher, maybe even above 65 or 66% (what the fuck, I am attempting to ballpark, here, for sure).  

So surely since our September 6th touching upon $53k we have been in correction and consolidation mode, so getting some DOWNity momentum.. which also likely causes confidence of the $28,600 bottom being in to go down.. but how far down are we going to come in order to attempt to stay reasonable in respect to the BTC price forces that are out there - including the extent to which there could be some macro-liquidity event that causes our $28,600 bottom to end up getting broken?  Personally, I am still considering greater than 50% odds that the $28,600 bottom from mid-April (I mean the top was Mid-april and the bottom was mid-june to mid-july) is NOT going to be touched... Can I attempt to throw out some kind of larger number that is somewhere between 50% and 65% and perhaps lower than 60% could be presumed at this point?
 You know that I hate getting into specifically high numbers in the first place, but we still have around $12k cushion between our current prices (as I type this post) and the June and July $28,600 bottom. so what to do?  what to do?  besides wait it out and cry a wee bit?

For sure, it is not easy to have a whole hell of a lot of confidence regarding where the bottom of a correction cycle might be while it seems that we are in the midst of it, including seeming to have some decent momentum and some pretty damned dire macro-economic factors that could contribute to some seemingly outrageous BTC price performance (to the DOWNity) in the short term.  Where's the reversal (if any?) and how to catch a falling knife, if that would even be a practical recommendation of something to attempt?  

I am not proclaiming to have any answers beyond just trying to employ systems that have already been successful in terms of buying dip, HODL and figuring out how much there might be any practicality in trying to watch or just step away for a while (if that might be where we are at, currently.)

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  Undecided
Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

 A handsome, tall black fellow, wearing fashionable yet comfortable clothing approaches you from out of nowhere. A well worn tan cowboy hat adorns his head, suggesting an untold history of experiences and legends yet to be revealed.

 You notice the man is carrying two dull circular metal plates, pocked with spherical indentations and scrapes - Clearly having been punished to their material limits.

 The man holds out the two plates, with his left arm - somehow defying the laws of gravity.

 With his right arm, he tips his hat, and mutters "You are going to need these more than I do right now".

 The dark man turns, and walks off into the western sunset.

When you want a wee bit of fiction, here you have it.

Well said Bawb.
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September 21, 2021, 09:20:18 PM



I mean, still 350% up from last year, same day.  Roll Eyes
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September 21, 2021, 09:36:13 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), cAPSLOCK (1), JayJuanGee (1), dragonvslinux (1), OutOfMemory (1)

Bitcoin Crash to $5,402 in Error on Network Backed by Quants  Roll Eyes #FUD YAHOOOO REEEEEE
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-crashed-5-402-error-200732717.html
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September 21, 2021, 09:46:29 PM

Bitcoin Crash to $5,402 in Error on Network Backed by Quants  Roll Eyes #FUD YAHOOOO REEEEEE
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-crashed-5-402-error-200732717.html


If thas was the first and only post from you i merited so far, i wouldn't be surprised.
But the story is worth it.
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September 21, 2021, 09:47:10 PM

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  Undecided


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

Same here. But rather than not feeling bullish, I am feeling the point to buy the dips is coming soon.

Buying the dip soontm..

but what does that mean? 

When?

How much to buy?

Is that the bottom or no?

We will know it when "we" see it, right?  (P.S.,.  we may have just seen it, with our spikening down to $39,573 within the past 30 minutes - coupled with our recovery.. back up to $42k.. perhaps? perhaps)

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I surely have my doubts in regards to this exponential period playing out so similar to the 2013 fractal that you suggest to be relevant here.

Sure, anything can happen, but I am expecting that even though we may well be able to make it through $55k to $80k without much if any resistance (once we get into that price zone), at the same time, I would expect that we will see some resistance before 6 digits.. and yeah, your peak of $200k to $400k does come off as a fairly reasonable price range for a peak.. even though there would not be any kinds of assurances that this peak would necessarily end within such range or even play out in the next 2-3 months, as you also seem to be suggesting as a kind of "given."  In other words, we could have a price peak for this particular cycle that takes many more months to play out, even going as late as the third quarter of 2022.. even though I would expect that the odds for the peak happening sooner rather than later in 2022 (if it were to drag out into 2022)- second quarter more likely than 3rd quarter and 1st quarter more likely than 2nd quarter.

Overall agree. The top of the cycle can be postponed Q1 2022 even I don't really see a top very late in 2022. Except if we don't go so high as expected (I mean like the usual parabolic end of the cycle) and we just go up step by step, slowly. If happened, the down would be probably on the same way, without seing -85%+ (top to bottom, as we saw till now).
BUT i still believe in Halving timing, so anyway the top (fast or not) cannot take so much more times..

PS : Not agree on the 55-80K. If we crush 55K (or  from previous ATH 64K), I don't see much reason to stop at 80K instead of 95-98K for example (just below 100K). Would be "only" a 50% up from previous top. Nothing crazy.

Those are all fair points, even though I have some quibbles with you in regards to downplaying the strength of likelihood that we have future 85%-ish price corrections, and I also will quibble with any kind of implication that you might be making in terms of a vision of possible future BTC price stability, at least in the short term of this cycle or the coming one to two more cycles. 

In other words, even though bitcoin markets have been picking up a lot of financialization products and also a lot of BIGGER investors into bitcoin who are not too likely to be selling their BTC and also providing BTC price support, I doubt that we are going to be able to remove our lil selfies (referring to the bitcoin market) from high levels of ongoing volatility - that still seems somewhat inevitable when in the midst of war.  In other words, do you (or any other regular member here for that matter) really believe that the greatest wealth transfer in history is going to play out without some extreme battles both in the physical space and in the informational space - that ends up reflecting upon BTC price movements (likely extreme, if you had not absorbed the implications that I was attempting)?
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September 21, 2021, 09:47:27 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Bitcoin Crash to $5,402 in Error on Network Backed by Quants  Roll Eyes #FUD YAHOOOO REEEEEE
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-crashed-5-402-error-200732717.html


Um Wow.  Gemblips actually posted something of substance.

And if this is true... umm...  the way things are going in the world right now?  Such a good chance it was not an accident either.

By the way...  Satoshi may have successfully decentralized MONEY.  But the exchange of it?

That is an attack vector for the powers that be.

I expect to see more of this.
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September 21, 2021, 09:52:16 PM

Were they able to buy at 5k?
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September 21, 2021, 09:59:07 PM

Seems that there are less sellwalls now.
Too many s/l orders triggered?
Would be healthy for a rising bull, i guess.
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September 21, 2021, 10:01:25 PM


Explanation
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September 21, 2021, 10:12:32 PM
Last edit: September 21, 2021, 10:27:47 PM by JayJuanGee

^ In Sept. 2017 BTC also dipped quite a bit, but it was mostly going up (daily) from that point onward.
I remember buying in the first time a few weeks earlier and Bitcoin dropped down a little bit above the price it was when i bought.
I also panic sold a few days after i bought, just to buy in again one or two days later, when it was going up again. I'm glad i didn't make this mistakes later in Sept 2017.
#hodl

Just looking at past bitcoin prices & September 2013 caught my attention.

29 September 2013 - Price was $137
The top for that cycle, a few months later in 2013 was over $1,100.

Now, if we can even do 3 or 4 x the current price I will be the happiest man alive.

So?  You are talking about shaving at various BTC price points along the way up?  Presumably starting at some point above our current ATH since you had already taken some profits between our current price and the current ATH, right?

Of course, you know that I have sell orders set all the way up to mid-$100k and beyond, but mine are not even a very large percentage of my overall BTC portfolio, so I am not even concerned that I would have any cashflow shortages anywhere in those areas, even if we might consider that BTC price go into the mid-$100k and then correct back down to the $60k territory.. if that were to be something like our bearish bull-case for this particular cycle?    

By the way, I am largely asking this question based on concerns that anyone might be considering figuring out what a top might be or engaging in a sell all of their BTC strategy (and I already believe that you are not going to be selling all of your BTC even if you might be selling decently sized chunks that might even add up to 20% to 30% or perhaps even a wee bit more of your stash into those kinds of mid-$100k BTC price scenarios.. and I would not even say that would be unreasonable, even though I when I do a quickie look at my own BTC projections, my portfolio seems to be selling way less than 10% (and even in the 5% arena) which comes off as if I might not even be selling enough.. just to be somewhat reasonable in terms of expecting that a top might come somewhere between $150k and $400k rather than at some higher price point.. not that I would be shaving off larger amounts of BTC merely if BTC prices were to top above $400k - even while maybe experiencing some regrets after the fact in the event that BTC prices crash in the 85% price arena after topping off at a point that is lower than my thoughts of a clear blow-off top (not that I would even know one when I were to see it).

Very few people see it yet, but we are gearing up for the big one in my humble opinion.  France pulled their ambassadors from the US as we sent nuke subs to Australia?  Lines being drawn between the sides.  And the regular people like us will pay the price.

Do you even know how to be a wee bit less cryptic for us normies who are trying to figure out what is going to be "the big one?"

What are the sides going to be?

Do you want to say in advance or just putting out vagueness and then saying that you "knew it"  blah blah blah?.. hahahahaha

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  Undecided

Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

Frankly, I don't believe my eyes - battle (and dip) hardened LFC is posting this bearish/chicken talk? Don't you remember the good old days of 2013 and 2017? I fear you're about to get batman slapped by Mr JJG!  Grin

Like this?

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September 21, 2021, 10:13:22 PM
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^ In Sept. 2017 BTC also dipped quite a bit, but it was mostly going up (daily) from that point onward.
I remember buying in the first time a few weeks earlier and Bitcoin dropped down a little bit above the price it was when i bought.
I also panic sold a few days after i bought, just to buy in again one or two days later, when it was going up again. I'm glad i didn't make this mistakes later in Sept 2017.
#hodl

Just looking at past bitcoin prices & September 2013 caught my attention.

29 September 2013 - Price was $137
The top for that cycle, a few months later in 2013 was over $1,100.

Now, if we can even do 3 or 4 x the current price I will be the happiest man alive.


... check your premises, hoping for material wealth targets to achieve 'happiness' is a known losing strategy

... wealth can provide economic security, perhaps sometimes freedoms or access to resources, not happiness
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September 21, 2021, 10:16:48 PM

https://twitter.com/i/events/1439675314217517057

Yall using your BIP39 passphrase, right?  RIGHT?



(also I suggest backing up your keys with PGP (GPG) encryption and a strong password somewhere else as well.  USB drive... archival CDR... *cough* cloud *cough*)

Damn F.B.I

Concerning the price...

Down, down, down the rabbit hole we go.
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September 21, 2021, 10:24:58 PM
Merited by dragonvslinux (1)

OK, brothers, time for bed.
Don't mindrust it.

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September 21, 2021, 10:27:49 PM

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I love believers !
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September 21, 2021, 10:31:29 PM

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I love believers !

I believe!!


It is the only avenue for me to escape the rat race..
The greatest lottery tickets I will ever get the chance to own..


It’s either going to zero, and I can say “at least I had the balls to try”..
Or I can say “Fuck you” to the system forever..
Eventually..
One way or the other..
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September 21, 2021, 11:01:25 PM


Explanation
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