Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

2nd-order underdamped response. Typical.

All we need now is a real pole in the right half of the s-plane, to shoot the price up to +∞.

Math & science.

[1713562819]

1713562819

[1713562819]

1713562819

[coinlocket$]

To celebrate the new ATH I did this video, maybe you have already seen something like this but was fun for me to do.

Click to play if you want to see it.

Happy new ATH

[podyx]

What about that double top that you had been expecting (hoping for), podyx?

hahahahahahaha


sucks to be uie pooie.

 

I'm all in on btc and have been since 2013.

But I got money flowing in from other business endavours which is why I hope to keep stacking up at $50k before we take off to $500k

[Mbitr]

To celebrate the new ATH I did this video, maybe you have already seen something like this but was fun for me to do.

Click to play if you want to see it.

Happy new ATH

Great info graphic 
Sad to see XRP so high up , but glad to see BSV never make it on the chart 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Paashaas]

[JayJuanGee]

InvestAnswers just said something I've been thinking about for a while.

Although paying off my mortgage is something I could do with the BTC gains he pointed out if you borrow against 2-3% it's really (almost) free money considering the massive inflation rate.
Michael Saylor has been talking about the near zero business loans also.
At least mortgages for individuals are still low, unlike ridiculous credit card rates.

Furthermore I believe BTC will go much higher.
A $1 million BTC and even $10 million BTC in the next 5-10-15 years will not surprise me. Well before my mortgage ends anyway.

Also, these free interest loans on furniture etc make sense since you will really pay less over the entire period rather than in 1 chunk today, again due to inflation.

For you, yes paying on a low interest mortgage while letting your bitcoin ride is probably the way to go for now.

But keep in mind, that you may still want to pay if off earlier than 30 years.

Here's why: Most people don't anticipate ever getting laid off (even once, much several times) and don't believe ageism is even a thing.

You really think that you'll stay employed for 30 years solidly straight with enough income (adjusted for insane inflation) to keep paying that mortgage every month/year and still have enough income left over to survive? You think that you'll be payed the same or more at 60 yrs of age, than you were making at 30? Think again. The time of 30 year careers is over. More like 15 at best, and then you have a career crisis.

Exactly. That's why I have a rule: Never ever get loans. Want a better car? Save money, invest in Bitcoin, whatever, until you can afford to pay the full amount. Want a better house and can't buy it? Stay at your current house until you can afford the better one. I don't want to have to pay back some bank for decades and being forever tied to them. The only loan I would consider getting is to buy a house if I didn't own a house. Fortunately I own my house. It's not the most luxurious house, but it's mine, and I don't owe anyone anything.

...and Bitcoin can greatly help do the above!

Regarding your house.... @AlcoHoDL

You may well need to be upgrading soon^tm. 

#justsaying

[edited out]

Great job, JJG, my man! Stinky bears exposed. Now desperately trying to join the party. That's FOMO at it's best!  

ah ha!!!!

Of course, each of us have some guilt in terms of re-writing history in a way that is more favorable to our own circumstances or where we might have been financially/psychologically at time 1 versus time 2 or versus time 3.  I catch myself doing the same.. and some of it is more innocent than others in terms of just reframing based on subsequent learnings that might not have been part of the conscious thinking during time 1 even though some of the learning may have come in time 2 and other parts of the learning came in time 3.. and of course, once some of the facts develop in time 2 or time 3, then some of the understanding of what had been happening in time 1 becomes more clear based on how the facts end up playing out... but we did not know (or might not have even adequately considered or given enough weight to how the facts ended up playing out in time 2 and/or time 3).  

I would not even be suggesting that in time 1, ONLY giving a 30% likelihood to how the facts would play out in time 2 and 20% in time 3, and then that might only add up to some even lower probability would have even been the wrong assessment, because the actual way that the facts play out does not mean that the assessment in time 1 was wrong.. and so there is likely quite a bit of justification in reassessing from time to time, especially once we see how facts actually end up playing out as compared/contrasted with how we had predicted them to play out at various earlier points of time.

I do believe that some guys are more extreme in their selectively remembering "I was there all along," or back when BTC was $250 in 2015 for the whole year, I was "stacking like a mo fo".. and the reality of the matter was that a lot of us were scared as fuck in 2015 and we were not "stacking like a mo fo" and the more retrospectively bullish of us who had gotten into BTC in the past year or two (meaning 2013/2014) were either just HODLing or stacking a bit here and there from time to time while hoping for the price to go up and to bring our portfolios out of the red... of course the pre-2013 HODLers were in better shape, but not all of them fared well during that period either in terms of "mistakes being made" based on psychology and/or taking some financial risks.

[cygan]

prediction for the year 2021 - at least one new ath every month

january 2021 - check✔

february 2021 - check✔

march 2021 - check✔

april 2021 - check✔

may 2021 - failed✖

june 2021 - failed✖ - i think i will have to use a better crystal ball next year

july 2021 - failed✖ 

august 2021 - failed✖ - 4x ath followed by 4x without ath - its now time again for 4x ath

september 2021 - failed✖ - BTC is dead

ocuptober 2021 - check✔

[lightfoot]

So yeah. I've been debt averse all my life. Maybe it's better to take on some debt than sell some corn. Thinking about this.

I view debt as risk. It can place you in a bad position if things go wrong (it's basically a slightly different take on options trading). Doesn't mean it shouldn't be done but consider all the angles.

Yeah, that's how I normally think of it, and that really served me well in 2008 when everything went to shit and everyone got foreclosed/squeezed. But if I had the choice of selling 100k in coin and paying 20% taxes or just borrowing $80k at 4%, the 100k means no more bitcoin appreciation (yeah I had this thought at 18k too) 20k down the drain while the 80k loan would be >4k a year interest with the bitcoin continuing to grow.

Side point is I don't need 80k or 800k or whatever (ok, maybe 8k for some pretty watches). So maybe I'll just let bitcoin sit and giggle a lot or something.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

What about that double top that you had been expecting (hoping for), podyx?

hahahahahahaha


sucks to be uie pooie.

 

I'm all in on btc and have been since 2013.

But I got money flowing in from other business endavours which is why I hope to keep stacking up at $50k before we take off to $500k

Huh.. .if you have been stacking since 2013, then it would seem that you benefit way more from the BTC price going up rather than down, and why would there be any kind of desire to stack a few more at $50k-ish.. hardly makes sense to me... remember what shroomkit used to say.. something like:  "everyone cheering for cheap coins to pick up a few more 0.1 BTC or whatever, and now you got your cheap coins"...

Anyhow, if your stash of BTC is 10 or 100, and then you have $50k of cash coming in so you could buy a whole bitcoin and either increase your stash by 10% (hopefully you are not stacking 10% especially since you had 8 years to get in) or maybe you end up stacking an additional 1% to your stash (and still seems strange to be getting excited to have the potential to add a whole 1% to your stash after having so much time to already pee pare ur lil selfie for UPpity), and in the end, the stacking of more sats at these prices for someone who has had 8 years-ish seem like a big so fucking what in the whole scheme of things and your past opportunities to stack sats (and furthermore a BIG SO WHAT regarding buying those extra sats at $50k versus buying them at $66k),

You want all of the rest of us (stackers, HODLers, preparers for UP) to suffer merely so that you can pick up a few more sats?  especially if you had already been stacking since 2013 .. like you mentioned....   get real, no?

In other words, haven't you had enough time to stack sats by now?  We are going up.. get with it..,. and no need to be greedy....       Save some sats for the newbies to be buying in the $80k to $100k range, if they  are with it enough to get in before we hit $500k....      

And chill...

So yeah. I've been debt averse all my life. Maybe it's better to take on some debt than sell some corn. Thinking about this.

I view debt as risk. It can place you in a bad position if things go wrong (it's basically a slightly different take on options trading). Doesn't mean it shouldn't be done but consider all the angles.

Yeah, that's how I normally think of it, and that really served me well in 2008 when everything went to shit and everyone got foreclosed/squeezed. But if I had the choice of selling 100k in coin and paying 20% taxes or just borrowing $80k at 4%, the 100k means no more bitcoin appreciation (yeah I had this thought at 18k too) 20k down the drain while the 80k loan would be >4k a year interest with the bitcoin continuing to grow.

Side point is I don't need 80k or 800k or whatever (ok, maybe 8k for some pretty watches). So maybe I'll just let bitcoin sit and giggle a lot or something.

Nothing wrong with giggling.

For sure, it will make some differences regarding how many BTC that you have and how close you are to fuck you status, or how far you are above fuck you status.

Let's use your round numbers... of considering some kind of purchase or investment of $100k.

And let's also use $2 billion (whoops.. I meant to say $2 million) as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

Let's also hypothesize that you do not have other assets/currencies upon which to spend, so you are considering  spending from your BTC.

The quantity of your BTC is going to make a difference, and also how you calculate the value of your BTC holdings.

For example, if you calculate based on spot BTC price, you might well be uncomfortable with spending $100k merely because you have reached fuck you status at $30k (66.7 BTC) and you currently happen to have double fuck you status with BTC prices over $60k.

However, if you have 10x fuck you status, then you might well not be as worried to shave off $100k and pay $20k taxes.  That would be having around 333 BTC.  

Similar would be true if you used the 208-week moving average price (currently at $17k) as your measurement of your reaching fuck you status - that would be 117.65 coins and if you had double that number of coins, then you would have even fewer concerns about shaving off $100k of value and spending $20k on taxes.  

Part of my point is that how much you have could make a difference in terms of how you might weigh the trade-offs.. and also how you calculate your value, could also bring some levels of comfort in terms of feeling psychologically comfortable with shaving off some value... .. and surely there could be an issue if all of your value is in BTC too.. especially if you are already feeling like you are close to entry fuck you status, exceeding fuck you status or even multiple times exceeding fuck you status, so in order to feel somewhat more psychologically comfortable with your BTC, it may well serve you better to own some other kinds of assets, whether we are talking about property, equities, PMs, cash or whatever floats your boat (boats?.. of course some assets hold value better than others and some assets have ongoing expenses to maintain, too)

[Arriemoller]

667, the neighbor of the beast.

[LoyceV]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

You call 3 Comma Club entry-level?

[JayJuanGee]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

You call 3 Comma Club entry-level?

Whoops.. I meant two million...

I better go back and fix that faux pas freudian slip regarding the size of my own stash.. .hahahahaha

[lightfoot]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

2 billion is fuck you status? *Wow*

[JayJuanGee]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

2 billion is fuck you status? *Wow*

I have now fixed it in my original post..

Forgive me this one time I made one mistaken character out of the millions billions of characters (when calculating the truthfulness of my assertion remember that pictures are worth thousands of characters) that I have typed in this here forum.

 

[lightfoot]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

2 billion is fuck you status? *Wow*

I have now fixed it in my original post..

Forgive me this one time I made one mistaken character out of the millions billions of characters (when calculating the truthfulness of my assertion remember that pictures are worth thousands of characters) that I have typed in this here forum.

 

To be honest, I turned it over in my head for a little while: I guess if we're talking "Fuck you I'm leaving this nation state for another one who will be glad to have me", then 2b might be a number"

But as for the rest yeah, scale matters. If you had say 60btc and BTC fell to 15k then yeah you could still pay off the loan no problem but you would be out of the bitcoin game. It's an interesting thought experiment.

[El duderino_]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

2 billion is fuck you status? *Wow*

Being free of debbt is already FY status for me...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

2 billion is fuck you status? *Wow*

I have now fixed it in my original post..

Forgive me this one time I made one mistaken character out of the millions billions of characters (when calculating the truthfulness of my assertion remember that pictures are worth thousands of characters) that I have typed in this here forum.

 

To be honest, I turned it over in my head for a little while: I guess if we're talking "Fuck you I'm leaving this nation state for another one who will be glad to have me", then 2b might be a number"

But as for the rest yeah, scale matters. If you had say 60btc and BTC fell to 15k then yeah you could still pay off the loan no problem but you would be out of the bitcoin game. It's an interesting thought experiment.

Each of us have our entry-level fuck you status, and I am not even attempting to reveal what mine is merely by describing it as $2 million.  There are likely still some people who believe that having $500k or less is actually enough to have reached fuck you status in terms of their own cost of living expectations... and of course, if you are attempting to live off the passive income from your accumulated capital versus considering living off the principle too, then those kinds of considerations will also change your numbers.

Another thing is that I had been trying to choose a number that kind of fits regular and average western expectations, and I thought that $1 million was frequently the number thrown about, and even seemed to have worked pretty well as a reference point in the past 10 years or so, except after March 2020, it seemed prudent to double that number.. and gosh, I am hoping that we are not going to have to double that number again for the next 5-10 years... but who knows?

Another thing, is that I even though I understand that BTC HODLers like to get excited about spot price, and surely we are not handicapped by spot price going up, but if we are attempting to presume largely a HODLing mentality, long term investment and attempts to ONLY cash out what you need from time to time, whether that might be cashing out for the expenses of a quarter or two or perhaps cashing out for a year or two, and so there may well be risks with too much cashing out, but there are also potential risks with too little cashing out, too.

In the past year (or maybe more) I have been using the 208-week moving average as a way to attempt to measure bitcoin bottom, since it is not very frequent that the BTC price goes below the 208-week moving average and it also seems that it would be unusual for the bitcoin price to stay below the 208-week moving average for any kind of meaningful amount of time.  The 208-week moving average ends up being a pretty strongly-conservative means of measuring the value of wealth that is kept in bitcoin and to calculate various strategies based on that (which is currently at $17k, so your mentioning of $15k seems to be greatly improbable and unrealistic.. except perhaps a short-term downity spikening). .. another thing with using a seemingly lagging indicator, such as the 208-week moving average is that it both tends to go up, almost constantly and any of us using that number would be able to adjust various kinds of strategies that we have based on if the BTC spot price is at or near the 208-week, moving average.. so for example if the BTC spot price is more than 3x above the 208-week moving average, it costs me about 1/3 the amount of BTC to accomplish the same dollar value.. and let's say that I was authorized to cash out 10% per year based on, I could cash out 3-4% of my total BTC value based on current prices for the whole year and still have extra BTC.  Furthermore if I project that the 208-week moving average is going to go up more than 10% per year, but if spot price is only 20% or less above the 208-week moving average price, I might need to readjust some of my BTC price appreciation expectations.

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

2 billion is fuck you status? *Wow*

Being free of debbt is already FY status for me...

In terms of specific considerations of the various variables of getting to and maintaining fuck you status, you need to work on many of the variables besides just resolving the debt matter, dude..

Even though I mostly appreciate what you are suggesting regarding a kind of liberating aspect of getting your debt in order... sometimes, getting your various finances in order (including reducing debt - or being strategic about debt so that your assets are valued multiples of your debt) can be very liberating things to put in order..,. important for both psychology and for prudence in financial management (I am not even saying that debt is bad if it is employed strategically).