Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

For most true Bitcoin OGs, an 80% draw down from some future ATH means they are still rich and will likely stay all in btc, essentially forever (BYOB). They won't really care anymore about future bear markets.

Well said.

Very well said…. Though I would less enjoy it …. Way less ….

Yeah same...  

I guess different people have different thresholds for this...

I honestly do not know how I will react to the next bear if we have one historically similar.  I *guess* it will be like the last...  painful, but part of the ride.  Bitcoin (and poker) have taught me to handle loss well in life.  But it is not easy for me yet.

We are at the same level of thinking and experience over this matter I guess

[1713582628]

1713582628

[1713582628]

1713582628

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[marcus_of_augustus]

... S2F breaks when we get hyperbitcoinisation

... noone knows when that might happen

... probably longer than you think but not as long as you might imagine

[cAPSLOCK]

For most true Bitcoin OGs, an 80% draw down from some future ATH means they are still rich and will likely stay all in btc, essentially forever (BYOB). They won't really care anymore about future bear markets.

Well said.

Very well said…. Though I would less enjoy it …. Way less ….

Yeah same...  

I guess different people have different thresholds for this...

I honestly do not know how I will react to the next bear if we have one historically similar.  I *guess* it will be like the last...  painful, but part of the ride.  Bitcoin (and poker) have taught me to handle loss well in life.  But it is not easy for me yet.

We are at the same level of thinking and experience over this matter I guess

Have you ever considered the stake of poker we are playing at the "Bitcoin Table"?  I know for sure you've played higher stakes poker than me...  but if we translate our Bitcoin bankrolls into a buy-in.   Pretty big game huh?

One thing I want to do before I die, and more likely in the next 2-7 years is enter some WSOP events with my bitcoin "roll"...  Maybe even the main event.  Though I am not sure I have the stamina (or skill) to have much chance in that one!

 

[cAPSLOCK]

... S2F breaks when we get hyperbitcoinisation

... noone knows when that might happen

... probably longer than you think but not as long as you might imagine

Damnit Marcus.  You just summed up probably 50 posts and thousands of words I have typed.

I should just make that my new sig.

[sirazimuth]

......
... probably longer than you think but not as long as you might imagine

That's what he she they said...

[marcus_of_augustus]

https://bitcoinist.com/how-bitcoin-adoption-rate-is-beating-the-internet/

In only 12 years, Levin estimates that BTC reached 135 million users today with projections to have 1 billion users by 2025. In the chart below, it’s possible to distinguish that when the Internet was at the same point in its adoption curve, it took 7.5 years to reach 1 billion users. BTC will do the same in almost half the time.

https://michael-levin.medium.com/part-1-the-dual-adoption-curves-of-bitcoin-2ffafbc5d5e7

these two adoption curves can occur concurrently with Bitcoin, the asset, kickstarting the adoption process which helps Bitcoin, the network, to ultimately send and receive value. (…) Furthermore, the overall Bitcoin adoption curve is reaching a critical moment. And, the interplay of these two curves will be critical for Bitcoin to reach the mainstream.

...

Any reasonable measurement will show similar results. Bitcoin, the asset, is likely crossing into the early majority while Bitcoin, the network, is on the cusp of moving from innovators to early adopters. So, overlapping the two, Bitcoin, overall, is still early in its adoption curve, likely somewhere in the early adopter phase.

... we're still early

[eXPHorizon]

We are Grateful for every Ray of Sunshine. For the Soil where seeds sprout. We cherish the Seasons and its Fruit when it Ripens. We are Grateful that you spoil us with the best that you have.

Thank you Nature.

[El duderino_]

For most true Bitcoin OGs, an 80% draw down from some future ATH means they are still rich and will likely stay all in btc, essentially forever (BYOB). They won't really care anymore about future bear markets.

Well said.

Very well said…. Though I would less enjoy it …. Way less ….

Yeah same...  

I guess different people have different thresholds for this...

I honestly do not know how I will react to the next bear if we have one historically similar.  I *guess* it will be like the last...  painful, but part of the ride.  Bitcoin (and poker) have taught me to handle loss well in life.  But it is not easy for me yet.

We are at the same level of thinking and experience over this matter I guess

Have you ever considered the stake of poker we are playing at the "Bitcoin Table"?  I know for sure you've played higher stakes poker than me...  but if we translate our Bitcoin bankrolls into a buy-in.   Pretty big game huh?

One thing I want to do before I die, and more likely in the next 2-7 years is enter some WSOP events with my bitcoin "roll"...  Maybe even the main event.  Though I am not sure I have the stamina (or skill) to have much chance in that one!

 

Indeed very true…. I was going to go to Prague or Rozvadov maybe this December… but probably not gonna make it

Dm’ed you something

Good night gonna go for a HODLsleep

[nutildah]

Shitcoin sales booming
There's unironic value
Exiting dollars.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[eXPHorizon]

What we now want is Closer Contact and better understanding between individuals and communities all over the earth, and elimination of egoism and pride which is always prone to plunge the world into primeval barbarism and strife... Peace can only come as a natural consequence of universal Enlightenment.

Nikola Tesla
If your hate could be turned into Electricity, it would light up the whole world.

Nikola Tesla

I do not think there is any thrill that can go through the human heart like that felt by the inventor as he sees some creation of the brain unfolding to success... Such emotions make a man forget food, sleep, friends, love, everything.

Nikola Tesla

[sirazimuth]

Post the word "crypto".
That will really chap jays ass.
Gets you a bat slap.

[JayJuanGee]

Shithead Musk started Tweeting about Bitcoin again. Perfectly timed once again as we try to hold 60k. Bad sign.

Fuck Musk.   Who cares?
 

Hint hint.. you should not care, UnDerDoG81.

 

Another way to talk about that model... is it does not take into account things that are outside of it.   

My concern is not so much about the need to account for other asset classes, but instead to merely account for exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles.

I think that reality is one reason he made his cross asset version. 

Incorporation of more assets.. ends up incorporating more information incidentally.. no problem.

Because the original S2F model is all about the very pure numbers of only bitcoin.  But if bitcoin starts competing with other stores of value then we also have to consider the effect of that. 

Bitcoin has already been competing with other assets as stores of value since when it first started to get a market price.  Yeah, in the beginning bitcoin was not much of a competitor.. but with the passage of time, increased adoption and networking effects help to show (more and more) the solidness of bitcoin's having value... and then furthermore the ideas of bitcoin present use cases, future use cases and various kinds of associated value and potential value gets further and further into the consciousness of people which causes them to want to spend their other forms of money and assets before spending bitcoin (Gresham's law)...

Bitcoins S2F is similar to golds now, I think. 

Close enough.. yes.

So by that measurement it deserves a 10x just to be correctly valued (which gets us almost halfway to your 1.5mm land).  But when you consider it also would be competing with real estate, bonds, collectables etc... the pie just got WAY bigger.

Bitcoin is somewhere between 10x better than gold or 100x better or even 1000x better than gold.. and sure accounting for several of those other less efficient stores of value.. would also get sucked up (gravitated into bitcoin)..

Hey.. one thing about the $1.5 million for this cycle, would be that I am not really talking about any kind of fundamental and reasonable rise in prices.. but just a bit of a 3x to 5x additional excuberance.. so instead of topping somewhere reasonable between $250k and $400k, we end up getting 3x to 5x more.. similar to what happened in 2017, when probably $3k to $5k would have been more than a reasonable toping off, but we ended up getting 4x to 6x greater than reasonableness... largely based on momentum.. and FOMO or whatever, I suppose.

Another by the way is that there is no real reason to need to get to any kind of fundamental value of $1.5 million in this cycle because surely we can recognize and appreciate that bitcoin has (or is going to have) at least that amount of value in the future (perhaps next cycle or the one after that - at the latest) and that fundamentally we might even be able to justify bitcoin prices in the $30million to $100 million range even though it could take 4-6 cycles to get within that range (I am getting a bit SOMA inclined, currently)...

This is where I think the original S2F model breaks to the upside.  PlanB was smart to have a second model waiting up there to catch it so he can say "See?  My OTHER model was right".

Fair enough on PlanB having had made a more comprehensive model.. as a back-up plan (Plan C).

For most true Bitcoin OGs, an 80% draw down from some future ATH means they are still rich and will likely stay all in btc, essentially forever (BYOB). They won't really care anymore about future bear markets.

Well said.

Very well said…. Though I would less enjoy it …. Way less ….

Of course, let's say that you, as an OG bitcoiner, are running low on some cash to consume some hookers, lambo and blow, and the BTC price has made an 80% dip from $500k down to a mere $100k.. so instead of being in 500x profits, you are ONLY in 100x profits.. yeah.. mistakes were made in terms of your wealth management, but are you going to really give too many shits in terms of shaving a wee bit of value off your stash in order to get your fix.. rather than waiting until next year or even until next month for that matter when you have hardly any clue about what the price is going to do, and whatever you sell is fucking 100x profits anyhow.. and sure it could be 500x blah blah.. but who cares, get your damned fix and stop being "less enjoyable" over the whole matter... cheer the fuck up.  #nohomo



 

[Arriemoller]

Big mac?

Royale with cheese.

Whopper. Everything else is shitburger tier.

The very best FastFood chain burger ....

#1 Giant these are sold at Quick.

many will never have heard of it, pity tbh, but its the best one for sure.

Disagree, the best fast food chain burger is MAX:s MAX Original.
https://www.max.se/maten/meny/burgare/max-original/

Edit.

Of the ones that I have tried of course, I have never tried the Quick burger so it might very well be tastier. I will try it if I ever get to Belgium, I have never been there actually.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Lightning Network, Bitcoin’s Crossing the Chasm Superpower

... good read for those WO tech. Innovators and Early Adopter entrepreneurs tinkering with the Lightning Network

... this is the way, use your low time preference to build for the future

[El duderino_]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

For most true Bitcoin OGs, an 80% draw down from some future ATH means they are still rich and will likely stay all in btc, essentially forever (BYOB). They won't really care anymore about future bear markets.

Well said.

Very well said…. Though I would less enjoy it …. Way less ….

I decided to consider only the 200wk value as my 'current account value' for various considerations such as taking loans, etc.

Good idear..

Now you are talking...



 

I don't really plan to sell much or even anything at almost any price point.
Well, if it comes to 1.5mil in a year or two (if we are in the super-cycle), sure, I would sell a couple of coins to do something silly, lakes or whatnot.

I am glad that you have decided to come down a wee bit from your $10 million target before doing anything.... the insight of over abundance may well be starting to become a wee bit more concrete, no?

 

For most true Bitcoin OGs, an 80% draw down from some future ATH means they are still rich and will likely stay all in btc, essentially forever (BYOB). They won't really care anymore about future bear markets.

Well said.

Very well said…. Though I would less enjoy it …. Way less ….

Yeah same...  

I guess different people have different thresholds for this...

I honestly do not know how I will react to the next bear if we have one historically similar.  I *guess* it will be like the last...  painful, but part of the ride.  Bitcoin (and poker) have taught me to handle loss well in life.  But it is not easy for me yet.

We are at the same level of thinking and experience over this matter I guess

Have you ever considered the stake of poker we are playing at the "Bitcoin Table"?  I know for sure you've played higher stakes poker than me...  but if we translate our Bitcoin bankrolls into a buy-in.  Pretty big game huh?

Personally, I believe that there is no real need to consider bitcoin as poker.  So let's say you started out with 1k chips, and sure you have been up and down, and you even had lost most of your chips so you were down to a bit more than 300 chips a few times, but then in recent times, you have gained back and you have over a 250k chips, and so ever now and again, you are moving your chips around in such a way that you end up losing 30k to 130k chips in a matter of weeks and gaining those chips back over 6 months or maybe it takes you a few years to get back to previous chip levels, but at any time, you are able to take out several times your initial 1k chips without even hardly blinking, and you have pretty decent confidence that your chips are likely to grow in the coming years, and that you have good chances that you could even get up to 1,000k chips in this cycle.... so I am not even sure how much it should matter if you have good systems in place, then you are already pretty confidence that your chips have been growing and you have been able to get multiple times of your initial investment back if you want (and maybe you have taken that amount out along the way too?).

One thing I want to do before I die, and more likely in the next 2-7 years is enter some WSOP events with my bitcoin "roll"...  Maybe even the main event.  Though I am not sure I have the stamina (or skill) to have much chance in that one!

I looked up WSOP and see that it means World Series of Poker.  Gosh.. that would be foolish to take anything resembling a large portion of your stash for some kind of fame and fortune gambling event, but let's say for example, you have established a fuck you status of $2 million... and for some reason (perhaps BTC price appreciation), you have acquired $100 million in wealth.. then yeah, you have liberty to take anywhere between $2 million and $10 million and maybe give few shits about whether you win or lose in such a WSOP event.. .. .and so I am not quibbling about taking large amounts into something like WSOP.. I am quibbling taking anything that you might be implying to be your whole stash or anything even close to approaching more than 10% of your networth.. presuming that at such time you would be in a status that is magnitudes higher than your fuck you status..and you are only taking small percentages of such stash.. 10% of the total value at the most..  

[Syke]

I wanted to ask my friend about Cuban, since to some extent I think *he* is the lucky one... sold a useless business (broadcast.com) at the height of the dotcom bubble.  

Looks like he got about $1b in 1999. If he had invested that in S&P 500, he'd have $5.4b today. His estimated net worth is $4.3b. Marc Cuban's new book, "How to lose $1b."