Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1713885895]

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[dragonvslinux]

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1470268669674483714/photo/1

This is a good argument for the slightly expanding cycle theory too, as opposed to a rigid idea of maintaining a 4 year cycle or not.

I had completely forgotten that the difference between the first and second halving was 3.75 years, as opposed to roughly 3.85 between the second and third. This also suggests that the next halving will be could be 3.9 to 3.95 years later, at least based on current projection. This would then bring it nearer to 4 years, if the cycles continue to get longer.

Is it right that with a more consistent hash rate, maintaining 10 minute block sizes, that it's unlikely to go over 4 years, or can it continue on with around 0.1+ years to add per cycle? Anyone?

Either way, adding 5 months onto each cycle top, based on halving, should at some point invalidate the 4-year cycle price-wise, sooner rather later. I had previously thought a top in late January or February, so good to see there is an argument for March as well. I personally never saw an argument for December, even if I was anticipating 6 figures like most, since the 2013 and 2017 tops are 4.08 months apart anyway.

The spiral step is roughly one order of magnitude (10x), meaning that there is roughly a 10x price increase between Halvings. This is equivalent to an average of 1.8x price increase per year.

Think it's more like 2.6x, between the second and third halving time-frame at least. Between third and fourth, maybe more like 2.5x to 2.55x. As an average only of course.
(10/3.85 10/3.9 and 10/3.95)

[d_eddie]

Who was that that kept spamming to earn interest on that Celsius network?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/r7py19/celsius_may_have_lost_900_btc_50_million_to_the/

Thanks for that. Interesting.

BTW, is it just me, or is reddit really so messed up and poorly designed for browsing posts? I just hate it every time I visit. I find it hard to navigate...

I always use old.reddit.com

It looks and feels better, a bit more organized and easier to follow individual threads. The newer interface at (www.)reddit.com is designed to make you wander around until the end of time. Even the empty frame around the posts is an active clicking area.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1470268669674483714/photo/1

This is a good argument for the slightly expanding cycle theory too, as opposed to a rigid idea of maintaining a 4 year cycle or not.

I had completely forgotten that the difference between the first and second halving was 3.75 years, as opposed to roughly 3.85 between the second and third. This also suggests that the next halving will be could be 3.9 to 3.95 years later, at least based on current projection. This would then bring it nearer to 4 years, if the cycles continue to get longer.

Is it right that with a more consistent hash rate, maintaining 10 minute block sizes, that it's unlikely to go over 4 years, or can it continue on with around 0.1+ years to add per cycle? Anyone?

Either way, adding 5 months onto each cycle top, based on halving, should at some point invalidate the 4-year cycle price-wise, sooner rather later. I had previously thought a top in late January or February, so good to see there is an argument for March as well. I personally never saw an argument for December, even if I was anticipating 6 figures like most, since the 2013 and 2017 tops are 4.08 months apart anyway.

The spiral step is roughly one order of magnitude (10x), meaning that there is roughly a 10x price increase between Halvings. This is equivalent to an average of 1.8x price increase per year.

Think it's more like 2.6x, between the second and third halving time-frame at least. Between third and fourth, maybe more like 2.5x to 2.55x. As an average only of course.
(10/3.85 10/3.9 and 10/3.95)

It's actually ~1.8x if you consider it as a 1-year compounding period.
1.8^3.85 ~ 1.8^3.9 ~ 10

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

There is about a two mile clear stretch view into their property that we'll constantly have motion sensor monitoring and video surveillance to give us a heads up on any possible shenanigans, but from our understanding of local knowledge, the folks we had a dispute with do mostly keep to themselves, and are not particularly well regarded by the ranchers, so, we've played our cards right so far.

Just dig a moat along the property line and fill it with gasoline. This is Texas we're talking about.

But but, with the volatility of gasoline it's going to be a maintenance nightmare to keep it topped up!

[cAPSLOCK]

and let the purple posts every 100 ft serve as the traditional Texas warning to officially "Fuck around and find out"

I find that you are doing purple fence posts to be so delightfully appropriate.  Your color... and one the locals most likely know to respect.  I guess the tradition goes back.

My moms side of the family were country folk.  I used to visit my grandfather in rural NC and we would take a couple cane poles for fishing.  We fished in a creek on his property, but that was on the edge of his neighbors property.  My grandfather, a man of few words pointed out a post with a purple top and asked me if I knew what it meant.  Nope, I said.  And he told me, it's a friendly way to warn people "if you go on that land they'll shoot ya" (the way my grandfather said it was more like "shoochee" lol).

[naim027]

https://twitter.com/jfnewbery/status/1469360266227990532?s=20

2 Prominent Bitcoin Core Contributors Step Away From Their Roles
Developer John Newbery and maintainer Samuel Dobson have stepped back from their duties working on the software that keeps Bitcoin running smoothly.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/12/10/2-prominent-bitcoin-core-contributors-step-away-from-their-roles/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

When da Taproot pump?   

[bitcoinPsycho]

When da Taproot pump?   

Approximately one hour 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[_javi_]

The next 24 months are critical

[Richy_T]

Who was that that kept spamming to earn interest on that Celsius network?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/r7py19/celsius_may_have_lost_900_btc_50_million_to_the/

Thanks for that. Interesting.

BTW, is it just me, or is reddit really so messed up and poorly designed for browsing posts? I just hate it every time I visit. I find it hard to navigate...

It's threaded, which sounds like a good idea but has its drawbacks. I much prefered the old usenet model where you would typically read threads in chronological order but you could also thread them if you wanted.

I always use old.reddit.com

Oops. I hadn't even considered that he wouldn't be doing that.

[serveria.com]

Keanu Reeves thinks NFTs are a joke: https://www.forbes.com/sites/danidiplacido/2021/12/11/keanu-reeves-thinks-nfts-are-a-joke/?sh=7c9112631117

[Torque]

OT: It's like they are already low-key telegraphing to the world what their next "global plan-tastrophy" is going to look like:

EXCLUSIVE IMF, 10 countries simulate cyberattack on global financial system
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/exclusive-imf-10-countries-simulate-cyber-attack-global-financial-system-2021-12-09/

The narrator of the film in the simulation said governments were under pressure to clarify the impact of the attack, which was paralysing the global financial system.

"The banks are appealing for emergency liquidity assistance in a multitude of currencies to put a halt to the chaos as counterparties withdraw their funds and limit access to liquidity, leaving the banks in disarray and ruin," the narrator said.

The participants discussed multilateral policies to respond to the crisis, including a coordinated bank holiday, debt repayment grace periods, SWAP/REPO agreements and coordinated delinking from major currencies.

So a world wide cyber attack crisis requires the coordinated response of global emergency liquidity (money printer go moar trillions $$$ brrr), debt moratoriums, and global bank holidays. Gee, who woulda thunk it?  

Remember Event 201, anyone?  
https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/about

[Richy_T]

My moms side of the family were country folk.  I used to visit my grandfather in rural NC and we would take a couple cane poles for fishing.  We fished in a creek on his property, but that was on the edge of his neighbors property.  My grandfather, a man of few words pointed out a post with a purple top and asked me if I knew what it meant.  Nope, I said.  And he told me, it's a friendly way to warn people "if you go on that land they'll shoot ya" (the way my grandfather said it was more like "shoochee" lol).

Interesting. I had not heard of that one (nor ever seen any).

[Richy_T]

Keanu Reeves thinks NFTs are a joke: https://www.forbes.com/sites/danidiplacido/2021/12/11/keanu-reeves-thinks-nfts-are-a-joke/?sh=7c9112631117

He may be a guy who pretends to be other people for money but in this case, he's correct.

[Toxic2040]