Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

#stronghands

[1713878757]

1713878757

[1713878757]

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[1713878757]

1713878757

[1713878757]

1713878757

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Mbitr]

You may be visited by 3 ghosts tonight 

The Ghost of Christmas Past



The Ghost of Christmas Present



The Ghost of Christmas yet to come



Don’t worry - the future is Orange

Merry Xmas all , stay safe and well 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sirazimuth]

Happy Kringle, WO Bros (and Bro-ettes)! I heartily hope the holiday season has you and your'n healthy, happy, hearty, and hella flush!

I see ChartBuddy came back. And dragged Richy_T along for the ride.

A clink of the glass to the lot of yas!

Merry Xmas dude. Nice to see you again.

(assuming it is you.)

[Gachapin]

Frankly, I don't get what he is saying... What means clarify "100k avg this cycle & regression analysis" ?


The only thing I can take away is:

Within 1sd range is sufficient, now.  Which essentially means no need for a 100k average anymore.  

I give him that: the model would still be useful in some ways.

But judging from my basic statistics skills, this s2f model can not be valid with an avg <100k.
Seems to me in order dodge that problem, he now allows a max error of 1sd.

I ask myself: why is he clinging to this model so intensely?  Does he fear a loss of reputation?
I'd think moving goal posts constantly harms reputation far more than admitting a model's failure.  And the 100k avg hasn't even been invalidated yet...

I conclude... he seems far more bearish than before.  Which is a great basis for a 2022 face ripping BTC volcano explosion  

Btw
Happy Christmas guys n gals  


 

[Paashaas]

Merry christmas everyone - Fijne kerstdagen allemaal - God jul allesammans - καλα XPIΣTOYΓENNA σε OΛOYΣ - Joyeux noël à tous - Buon natale a tutti - Bcex c Poждecтвoм - عيد ميلاد مجيد للكل

Feliz navidad a todos - Glædelig jul allesammen - Herkese mutlu noelle - Frohe weihnachten an alle - Crăciun fericit tuturor - 大家圣诞快乐 - Wesołych Świąt wszystkim - Eguberri on guztioi - Geseënde kersfees almal.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[suchmoon]

Some S&M vibe going on here with that whip... sends a very clear message what will happen if you don't hold.

[lightfoot]

I think there are quite a few draw backs with electric cars indeed the more I've been thinking about them.

My mid size SUV is coming up to 6 years old. Only done 30K miles. Can probably go for another 6 years without too much bother but I'm not sure you'd want to do that with an electric car (can it even run for 12 years and if it can what will the value be?).
Only now looking at replacing the original tyres by the way which is pretty excellent.
Again with an electric car you would need to replace them far sooner due to battery weight plus your ride won't be as comfortable.

Battery life on Lithium is based more on miles driven, number of charge cycles, and charging speed. Teslas using 6.6kw chargers will probably last a lot longer than ones that use superchargers on a regular basis. Leaf owners figured this out when they realized that the high power CHAMEDO charges were reducing pack life while the stock Leafs with 2.2kw chargers lasted damn near forever.

I was also surprised to read Teslas still have 12V batteries in addition to the large battery packs as well and have in fact also been problematic for people often not lasting the 3-5 years at all.

Yep, the 12v battery is used as a "bootstrap" starter to wake the computer up and do the checks before closing the HV packs. One problem is that since it's a pretty small draw then a traditional starter battery tends to die early. The proper answer is to use a NiCD battery as the starter battery as they last damn near forever, but they have toxic waste problems these days. Drat.

I guess Teslas need very little maintenance but the extra cost of actually buying the damn thing doesn't really offset that so much.

One of the big positives about electrics is that they just don't have mechanical problems. Motors are remarkably gentle on the drivetrain, no transmissions to deal with, and on my Prius the brake pads literally lasted well over 100,000 miles due to most braking being regen. Aside from the battery, they last pretty much forever.

I expect battery rebuild services to take off. If they can do it for 2k that's about the cost of a transmission rebuild which you have to do on a normal car every 100-150k miles anyway.

[cAPSLOCK]

Frankly, I don't get what he is saying... What means clarify "100k avg this cycle & regression analysis" ?


The only thing I can take away is:

Within 1sd range is sufficient, now.  Which essentially means no need for a 100k average anymore.  

I give him that: the model would still be useful in some ways.

But judging from my basic statistics skills, this s2f model can not be valid with an avg <100k.
Seems to me in order dodge that problem, he now allows a max error of 1sd.

I ask myself: why is he clinging to this model so intensely?  Does he fear a loss of reputation?
I'd think moving goal posts constantly harms reputation far more than admitting a model's failure.  And the 100k avg hasn't even been invalidated yet...

I conclude... he seems far more bearish than before.  Which is a great basis for a 2022 face ripping BTC volcano explosion  

Btw
Happy Christmas guys n gals  


 

I think this is basically what he is doing:



In the past he said two things:

1.  If it's not 100k by 12/21 then the model is broken.
2.  If it does not have an average of 100k for this cycle top, then it's invalidated.

So #1 is done... well, it will be in 1 week.

But #2 is still possible, but becoming more fantastical by the day.

Of course I would LOVE to see #2 come true, and in that case the longer it takes to get there the funner it would be.

In my opinion, he is busted on his December prediction.  I think he should own that bit, and concentrate on figuring out what is either wrong with the model, or his interpretation of it.

[Gachapin]

Frankly, I don't get what he is saying... What means clarify "100k avg this cycle & regression analysis" ?


The only thing I can take away is:

Within 1sd range is sufficient, now.  Which essentially means no need for a 100k average anymore.  

I give him that: the model would still be useful in some ways.

But judging from my basic statistics skills, this s2f model can not be valid with an avg <100k.
Seems to me in order dodge that problem, he now allows a max error of 1sd.

I ask myself: why is he clinging to this model so intensely?  Does he fear a loss of reputation?
I'd think moving goal posts constantly harms reputation far more than admitting a model's failure.  And the 100k avg hasn't even been invalidated yet...

I conclude... he seems far more bearish than before.  Which is a great basis for a 2022 face ripping BTC volcano explosion  

Btw
Happy Christmas guys n gals  


 

I think this is basically what he is doing:



In the past he said two things:

1.  If it's not 100k by 12/21 then the model is broken.
2.  If it does not have an average of 100k for this cycle top, then it's invalidated.

So #1 is done... well, it will be in 1 week.

But #2 is still possible, but becoming more fantastical by the day.

Of course I would LOVE to see #2 come true, and in that case the longer it takes to get there the funner it would be.

In my opinion, he is busted on his December prediction.  I think he should own that bit, and concentrate on figuring out what is either wrong with the model, or his interpretation of it.

I agree.
#2 would be nice, but I doubt it as an average, even if we popped to 200k for a short time.

However, in order to save his ass in advance, he already threw #2 out of the window as a criteria for invalidation. Now, he is ok, as long as price stays within 1sd.  
For me he has def. gone too far with his (childish) goalpost moving. I cannot take him serious anymore.




 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

For me [PlanB] has def. gone too far with his (childish) goalpost moving. I cannot take him serious anymore.

Sadly, I also feel the same. It would have been so much better for him to be a man about it and admit defeat. But instead of facing the facts, he seems to be moving the goalposts on every failure. OK, he may now be selling fewer PlanB hats, but that's his own problem. Bitcoin was fully alive and kicking last time I checked.

For me, the best "model" is the White Paper itself. Halving = supply reduction by half / 4-year period. That's enough for me to know for a fact that "it's going up forever, Laura!" That's a qualitative assessment that's good enough for me. As for quantitative, short-term, Crystal Ball^TM predictive models, I'll leave those to the resident magicians, purely for amusement purposes, with the occasional collateral damage (read: mindrust events caused by masterluc).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jbreher]

Yeah, it's-a meee.

You can't tell from the linguistics? What would the satoshi-whisperers conclude from that!?

I'll probably not hang 'round, but it is indeed good to visit the old neighborhood for the holidays.

A little bit creepy, a little bit nostalgic, and just a little bit morose. But, the thing must be done.

I do indeed wish you all well.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Syke]

Sadly, I also feel the same. It would have been so much better for him to be a man about it and admit defeat. But instead of facing the facts, he seems to be moving the goalposts on every failure. OK, he may now be selling fewer PlanB hats, but that's his own problem. Bitcoin is fully alive and kicking last time I checked.

For me, the best "model" is the White Paper itself. Halving = supply reduction by half / 4-year period. That's enough for me to know for a fact that "it's going up forever, Laura!" That's a qualitative assessment that's good enough for me. As for quantitative, short-term, Crystal Ball^TM predictive models, I'll leave those to the resident magicians, purely for amusement purposes, with the occasional collateral damage (read: mindrust events caused by masterluc).

No plan is flawless. We haven't developed psychohistory yet. When the model breaks, adjust it.

[AlcoHoDL]

Sadly, I also feel the same. It would have been so much better for him to be a man about it and admit defeat. But instead of facing the facts, he seems to be moving the goalposts on every failure. OK, he may now be selling fewer PlanB hats, but that's his own problem. Bitcoin is fully alive and kicking last time I checked.

For me, the best "model" is the White Paper itself. Halving = supply reduction by half / 4-year period. That's enough for me to know for a fact that "it's going up forever, Laura!" That's a qualitative assessment that's good enough for me. As for quantitative, short-term, Crystal Ball^TM predictive models, I'll leave those to the resident magicians, purely for amusement purposes, with the occasional collateral damage (read: mindrust events caused by masterluc).

No plan is flawless. We haven't developed psychohistory yet. When the model breaks, adjust it.

Yes, but his Twitter posts show arrogance and inability to stand up to his own earlier tweets about his S2F model being invalid if price does not reach $100k in 2021. In that sense, one could take any equation, adjust it to fit any short-term trend, keep adjusting ad-infinitum and call it a model of everything.

Edit (post-Syke's merit): Having said the above, I don't mind PlanB's work, it has its purpose and value, but IMHO, should not be taken very seriously. He's essentially attempting to predict a non-deterministic, noisy system being affected by more parameters that anyone can process. Short-term predictions of such systems are Crystal Ball^TM material in my book. It's good as a Hopium source though, and I've used it in the past to get my "fix", but it seems the drug is not as potent as it used to be...

[ivomm]