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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 7 (8%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.3%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (8%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 12 (13.8%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 20 (23%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 8 (9.2%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (6.9%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.3%)
>$40,000 - 17 (19.5%)
Total Voters: 87

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25646105 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (168 posts by 4 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Torque
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January 18, 2022, 03:31:53 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1), JayJuanGee (1)

NFT Group Buys Copy Of Dune For €2.66 Million, Believing It Gives Them Copyright
https://www.iflscience.com/technology/nft-group-buys-copy-of-dune-for-266-million-believing-it-gives-them-copyright/?fbclid=IwAR13DP4wvxdDlQ9K0_TZCfMNKjasAIGxOAHuSFjasbq4t2nZJguN0vBIiU4

Apparently, they paid for a copy of Jodorowsky's storyboard book and assumed that the copyright came with it. There are at least a dozen copies and they're all available free online.  Cheesy Tongue
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lightfoot
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January 18, 2022, 03:36:32 PM

Well, they do have the right to allow anyone to read it. The person just needs to come to their house and open the book.

The rest.... man people are stupid but I can't believe Disney isn't buying every NFT in sight everywhere.
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January 18, 2022, 04:01:27 PM


Explanation
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January 18, 2022, 04:04:22 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

I think they know....probably bought it from themselves for a quick wealth transfer from DAO investors.
"Contributors are given a $SPICE token in return for their funds, serving as a governance token in Spice DAO's proposal system".  What better way to extract ETH in the contract than to buy something you can get for less than 1% of the sold price.

excluding the top "contributors", which may just be team members who maybe just sold a book to themselves, they seem to have (1200+ETH-800) so 400ETH from small investors idiots.  No one has put any money in this DAO for 2 months.

Scammers be scamming, and the media keeps reporting ill-researched and click bait titles.  sums up the whole NFT/dao "market".  Just my 2 satoshis. (for the media, thats a play on my 2 cents, which means its my opinion, which means maybe hire a competent journalist or something?)
 
edit: i may be grumpy this morning, neighbour snow removal service is putting his snow on my property and in the street in front of my house when I have already enough of it as it is and there is plenty of room for him to blow it on his.  made him plow it back yesterday, next time i'll send a sand worm
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January 18, 2022, 04:05:11 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitcoinPsycho (1), somac. (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Doing a better job here of digging out from under the snow than Bitcoin is doing moving up in price... currently $41620USD/$52086CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Yawn.

Annoying price of BTC for long term hodlers….

Some did sold some at good/reasonable prices compared with now.

But to sit on a load of cash with non intentions not really the best thing imo.

Though I understand some would like to buy on the cheap, but now price isn’t yet cheap enough to rebuy, maybe if sold at the ATH-ish, other problem is people who haven’t sold any or very low numbers are a bit stuck as well cause if they want something a little more expensive, then it surely isn’t the price to sell atm…

Struggle of a hodlers life ….

Btc to cheap to sell or to high to buy back….  Grin

Sounds more like the struggle of a tarder's life.

Hodlers simply buy whenever they can and sell only when they must... regardless of the price. Much less stress.

Much more profit.
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January 18, 2022, 04:25:36 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

~ Intel ~

I'll believe it when I see it. Intel has their own fabs so in theory they could have a huge advantage over Bitmain and other peasants waiting in line at TSMC but they just recently deployed 7nm technology that's been mainstream in ASICs for a few years now. And it isn't even "real" 7nm - the official line is that Intel employs some magic geometry to pack more stuff into a 10nm die that makes it "equivalent" to 7nm but their consumer CPUs use more power than e.g. AMD CPUs (TSMC 7nm) so it remains to be seen how well those tricks can work for SHA256 ASICs.
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January 18, 2022, 05:01:28 PM


Explanation
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January 18, 2022, 05:05:58 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

~ Intel ~

I'll believe it when I see it. Intel has their own fabs so in theory they could have a huge advantage over Bitmain and other peasants waiting in line at TSMC but they just recently deployed 7nm technology that's been mainstream in ASICs for a few years now. And it isn't even "real" 7nm - the official line is that Intel employs some magic geometry to pack more stuff into a 10nm die that makes it "equivalent" to 7nm but their consumer CPUs use more power than e.g. AMD CPUs (TSMC 7nm) so it remains to be seen how well those tricks can work for SHA256 ASICs.

Quote
It appears that Intel is about the enter the Bitcoin-mining hardware business, but not with its new upcoming GPUs. The ISSCC conference is a yearly gathering of the best and brightest minds in the chip industry. This year, Intel has a presentation scheduled in the 'Highlighted Chip Releases' category to outline a new "Bonanza Mine" processor, a new chip described as an "ultra-low-voltage energy-efficient Bitcoin mining ASIC." That means Intel could soon compete with the likes of Bitmain in the market for specialized ASICs for Bitcoin mining.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-to-unveil-bitcoin-mining-bonanza-mine-asic-at-chip-conference




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January 18, 2022, 05:15:05 PM
Merited by fillippone (3), d_eddie (1)

What's that ticking noise? ⏲️ ⏲️

China's Property Sector Is Crashing Again And This Time It Has Reached The Country's Biggest Developer
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-property-sector-crashing-again-and-time-it-has-reached-countrys-biggest-developer

Tick tock, tick tock... ⏲️

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/07/chinas-property-problems-spread-to-once-healthy-developers-like-shimao.html

Torque's Prediction:

1. China's over-leveraged, mega Ponzi property market will start to finally, really implode by mid 2022. This will be the catalyst for another possible worldwide recession (did we ever leave one?)

2. Wealthy investors and hedge funds with insider knowledge will start front running these events, buying up Bitcoin starting Dec 2021 and resuming first week of January 2022. They likely already know what is coming and are front running it now.

3. To further fuel the fire, we could finally see a new U.S. Bitcoin ETF in Q1/Q2 of 2022. (this already happened Dec 2021)

4. We could see a new Bitcoin ATH and blow off top come mid year 2022.

5. China will of course retaliate by shutting down all onshore crypto exchanges, popping the Bitcoin bubble. Once again.  Roll Eyes The bears will then take over. China PBOC will then print yuan like a mofo and bail out any and all Chinese property developers.

You heard it here first. Just doing this for funzies. Typing it here to see how well my prediction plays out.
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January 18, 2022, 05:32:32 PM



I keep waiting for some giant chip fab entity (ie Samsung, Motorolla, Intel, AMD, Nvidea etc) developing a SHA256 ASIC on the down-low and starting to test them... I do not know enough about this tech/market to know if this is a possibility, but my gut thinks so.  But I do not think it is impossible that some chip maker could get a quick ROI testing (Butterfly Labs style) a brand new ASIC.  The financial incentive for this is crazy high.


Isn't it fun to think?  

Imagine Intel has designed and produced a wafer or two of these chips.  Proof of Concept.

And say the chips are a significant magnitude faster than the current crop.  And then imagine them able to make serious money when they are burning them in.  Then the meeting where they say, "We can pay a great deal of the R&D and FAB costs of these by just frontrunning the mining before releasing them.  Should we?".

This is one reason why multi-front ASIC chip development is so important.  One attack vector would be able to produce a chip so powerful that you could use it for a 51% attack or the likes.

I am thinking the time of that possibility might be past us?
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January 18, 2022, 05:55:28 PM
Merited by Welsh (4), El duderino_ (3), fillippone (3), vapourminer (2)

My thoughts are moving to the "we are in a large sideways channel", and have been since the move from 64k to 30k. I think it is therefore very possible that we move back down to near the 30k level, but there will be a lot of stacking on the way by long-term holders and it will only possible with a collapse of the traditional markets. All very possible.


I surely agree that there are decent odds that we could go back down to the lower $30ks... maybe even around 50%.. which is far from guaranteed but surly not zero odds.. and I am thinking shorter-term here, something like 1-3 months, perhaps?, and surely it is not clear how sustainable that kind of going down would be... but there are scenarios of even potentially exceeding the longer term of the range.. such as including some kinds of phenomenon that ends up really attempting to remove some of the froth in the shitcoin space.. with some of the NFT, and various ethereum imitator scamcoin models.. and surely not wanting to suggest that the tail wags the dog... and I am not even suggesting that there is any meaningful froth in Bitcoin, but if there are opportunities to purge froth and to shake some more weak hands who do not believe themselves to be weak hands, then so be it....  ..again.. maybe at best a 50/50 scenario rather than anything that has strong inclinations..

On the other hand,  I will say that framing bitcoin to be in a largely sideways action since May 2021 comes off as both baloney talk and failure/refusal to appreciate the importance of the in-between BTC price movements that really has placed bitcoin in an interesting place in terms of a kind of false start on a trip to the moon in which our current ATH of $69k went ONLY slightly more than 6% above our previous ATH of $64,895...

In any event, describing that whole period as sideways has a kind of misleading flavor to it... and of course, even though I hardly give too many shits about trying to predict short-term BTC price moves because my system just reacts to BTC price movements by selling all the way up to our new high of $64,895.. and then buying all the way back down to $28,800 and then selling all the way up to $69k and buying back again down to our current local low of $39,559, and for sure I never hit any exact tops or bottoms, but surely my system usually hits within $1k or $2k of such top  or bottom.. and buys/sells at several points in between.... relatively small amounts, really... .

There still seem to be needs to appreciate these kinds of up/down happenings for what they are - even if we are not sure about what might happening to be causing such seemingly outrageous ups and downs.. we are not flat.. yet we should be able to appreciate the violence of the ongoing battle, the inevitability of volatility and the confusions about the actual happening of the greatest wealth transfer in history..   Seems like some BTC price dynamics that should not be glossed over by merely asserting that we have been flat for the year..... even though factually true that any of us could have bought BTC for right around the same price as we had been able to buy such BTC a year ago,

Still quite a bit of importance has happened in the past year.....including that the 200-week moving average has moved up more than 100%.. specifically, we have a move from about $8,208 to $19,105 in the past year, which is about 133% Uppity... go chew on the significance of that reality... hahahahahaha

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

Another thing is the BTC mining hashrate.. holy fucking shit.. you really want to suggest that bitcoin has been flat in 2021?   Other WO members have been mentioning such hashrate/difficulty adjustments phenomenon.. and really consider the matter.  We had an ATH in hashrate and difficulty adjustment that was reached around May 13, 2021..

>>>
683,424   2021-05-13 01:58:58   25,046,487,590,083 - 25.05 T   + 21.53 %   0x170b3ce9   08 min 14 s   179.25 EH/s
<<<<

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

and then holy shit.. a drop by about 45%.. down to:

>>>>>691,488   2021-07-17 16:32:17   13,672,594,272,814 - 13.67 T   - 4.81 %   0x17149624   10 min 30 s   97.87 EH/s


and 13/14 of the past difficulty adjustments have been positive in order to put current hashrate above the May 13, 2021 levels, and surely already exceeded the ATH in hashrate and going to exceed the ATH in difficulty within the next 2.5 days.... 

>>>>Latest Block:   719306  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   107.7220%  (1611 / 1495.52 expected, 115.48 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                           
Current Difficulty:   24371874614345.62                           
Next Difficulty:   between 26180068974341 and 26262010465283
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.4192% and +7.7554%
Previous Retarget:   January 7, 2022 at 11:40 PM  (+0.4101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 11:35 PM  (in 2d 14h 39m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 12:34 AM  (in 2d 15h 38m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 23h 54m 50s and 13d 0h 53m 9s<<<

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Whether we agree that some kind of sponsored state attack might have been happening in bitcoinlandia, we surely have not had flat bitcoin dynamics in the past year.. and framing the matter as flat just comes off as overly simplified.. and having some misleading elements, too... at least from the perspective of this here cat.
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January 18, 2022, 06:01:36 PM


Explanation
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January 18, 2022, 06:11:52 PM

This is one reason why multi-front ASIC chip development is so important.  One attack vector would be able to produce a chip so powerful that you could use it for a 51% attack or the likes.

I am thinking the time of that possibility might be past us?

With the amount of hashrate you would need for a 51% attack you're probably better off just mining. And there isn't much "profit" with this kind of attack to begin with. Doublespend would be fraud (i.e. lawsuits) no matter how you look at it, and you'd need a massive amount of bitcoins to spend. What else? Some FUD (attack!!! run for the hills!!!) + shorting? But that can be done far cheaper, just spread rumors about China or something. Force a hardfork? No different than creating a new shitcoin.
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January 18, 2022, 06:16:01 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)

BTC trading at 2x since the ath of 2017
Pretty pathetic price performance if you ask me, especially for the long term holders

I will agree with you on this, bear. That's exactly the reason why I think the bull run is not yet over!  Cool
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January 18, 2022, 06:39:59 PM
Merited by fillippone (3), vapourminer (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)

BTC trading at 2x since the ath of 2017
Pretty pathetic price performance if you ask me, especially for the long term holders

I will agree with you on this, bear. That's exactly the reason why I think the bull run is not yet over!  Cool

It has never ended in 13 years.

But eventually it is bound to even out a little...

Wouldn't it be crazy if the price arced up a little while the volatility settled down?

Sort of the middle section of an adoption curve reflected in the price of the asset.

Yeah.  Crazy talk.

One interesting thing about tech adoption curves.  The further we go into new tech, the more aggressive the middle section is.



One of the things that can slow down an adoption curve is need/expense.  Look at air conditioning.  It is not an absolute NEED, and it is expensive to deploy AND maintain.  Same as dishwasher.  But look at electricity.  It is arguably very important, and you do not have to use much of it.

Bitcoin is facilitated by other curves.  Cell phones, internet, computers.  And it is more pure.  And it does not really have a price.  it *IS* the price.  you can store the value of a new set of tires in it just as easily as you can a fleet of commercial aircraft.

I predict the bitcoin adoption curve will be one of the most aggressive yet.  And I think that will also be reflected naturally in the price.
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January 18, 2022, 07:01:27 PM


Explanation
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January 18, 2022, 07:04:14 PM

Thanks Chartbuddy for breaking up my unrelated posts...

Just wanted to point out that volume has gotten fairly thick during this little segment... y'all see that?

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January 18, 2022, 07:08:00 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (11), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/habits-of-highly-effective-hodlers
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January 18, 2022, 07:08:50 PM

One interesting thing about tech adoption curves.  The further we go into new tech, the more aggressive the middle section is.



One of the things that can slow down an adoption curve is need/expense.  Look at air conditioning.  It is not an absolute NEED, and it is expensive to deploy AND maintain.  Same as dishwasher.  But look at electricity.  It is arguably very important, and you do not have to use much of it.

Bitcoin is facilitated by other curves.  Cell phones, internet, computers.  And it is more pure.  And it does not really have a price.  it *IS* the price.  you can store the value of a new set of tires in it just as easily as you can a fleet of commercial aircraft.

I predict the bitcoin adoption curve will be one of the most aggressive yet.  And I think that will also be reflected naturally in the price.

The issue with Bitcoin, is that much like gold, whether or not it is a need (a must have) is entirely depending on a person's mindset.

For example, high inflation affects us all, but only a very small segment of the world population is motivated enough to actually do anything about preserving their wealth. Or even CAN do anything about it. Even in countries where they currently have hyperinflation, you would think that by now everyone there would own a little bitcoin, but they still don't.
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January 18, 2022, 07:24:44 PM
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