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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 4 (5.8%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.9%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (4.3%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (10.1%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 10 (14.5%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 15 (21.7%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 7 (10.1%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (8.7%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 1 (1.4%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.9%)
>$40,000 - 12 (17.4%)
Total Voters: 69

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25617533 times)
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January 24, 2022, 11:52:03 PM

Relief rally? Or trap before the next bigger dump?

Exactly!

PumP b4 DumP
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January 25, 2022, 12:01:36 AM


Explanation
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January 25, 2022, 12:04:41 AM

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

...

... respect. Welcome to the All-In Club.

... relax,  leave the old world behind as much as you can.
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January 25, 2022, 12:07:17 AM
Merited by vapourminer (2), JayJuanGee (1)

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

The process of buying this amount was not easy I had to call my bank because the transaction was blocked then I had to wait 20-30 minutes for the bank to answer me. After that the customer service guy tried to lecture me about how cryptocurrency is very risky to invest in. I told him I had been around number of years but he said he had to go through all of it. I then had to confirm that I wanted to send this amount knowing the risk. They wanted me to come into the local bank and confirm some details but I told them because of the snowy conditions that would not be possible. He then allowed me to go through verification and send the amount. This probably took me over 2 hours to complete because I was put on hold many times. But do you know what the biggest eye opener of this experience was? with Bitcoin I would not need to go through this waste of time confirming my details because now I am my own bank. I do not need permission to spend my money even if it is for a risky investment. I am both relieved and scared. I have a lot of faith and I think I have bought at the best possible time and before completing the purchase I was 99% sure this was the right thing to do but the nerves have kicked in and I think I am probably about 60% sure now.

Wow man, that sure is exciting! But you need to relax and just think about the long term. Yes you might have just bought at this years bottom (I believe so personally) but shit might happen and there might be a 6 month bear market. But just be patient.

In the end, BTC will either go to zero or it will be a great success. If the latter, you will be rich. Absolutely rich.

Also, sad to hear about your buying experience. That also depends on your country and on the bank. For me personally things are very different. I live in the NL and I have a crypto friendly bank. I lent money from them twice, once a commercial loan in 2014 and then a second mortgage in 2020 to buy BTC, and both times they agreed it was a good idea. I have never had any troubles whatsoever sending or receiving money from exchanges. I don't know what amounts we are talking about here, but in my case car-amounts, not house-amounts.
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January 25, 2022, 12:20:37 AM
Merited by philipma1957 (9), El duderino_ (5)

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.
Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD.  wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%.  Grin

Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top.  It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ...

But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far..

For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting?  are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200  



I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?



sucks to be me....  Cry Cry Cry


The most simplest explanation is we won't have a blow off top.....Miner's revenue is the chart that needs to be observed.

Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around. China ban actually set the progression of mining revenue back about 6 months.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/miners-revenue
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January 25, 2022, 12:25:04 AM

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.
Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD.  wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%.  Grin

Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top.  It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ...

But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far..

For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting?  are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200  



I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?



sucks to be me....  Cry Cry Cry


The most simplest explanation is we won't have a blow off top.....Miner's revenue is the chart that needs to be observed.

Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around. China ban actually set the progression of mining revenue back about 6 months.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/miners-revenue


maybe i am misunderstanding what you are saying, but there is plenty of evidence during 2014-2015 when difficulty was steadily rising and the price dropping until a couple of adjustment periods where difficulty started decreasing and miners started bowing out; then the price turned around and started gaining or at least not decreasing.
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January 25, 2022, 12:38:50 AM
Merited by Biodom (1), strawbs (1)

isnt miners revenue, just block rewards x btc price ?  thats useless
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January 25, 2022, 01:01:24 AM


Explanation
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January 25, 2022, 01:15:27 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)

Quote
Known as Libor, the interest-rate benchmark once underpinned more than $300 trillion in financial contracts but was undone after a yearslong market-rigging scandal came to light in 2008. It turned out that bankers had been coordinating with one another to manipulate the rate, pronounced “LIE-bore,” by skewing the number higher or lower for their banks’ gain.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/12/business/libor-finance.html
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January 25, 2022, 01:20:29 AM

That was a nice little quiz.. .and I only got a bit over half of the answers correct, so the questions raised some subjects that I had not really thought about before going through the quiz.  
Some of the questions remained from last year (those that, it seemed to me, should be anyone who has ever read about bitcoin on Wikipedia). And some of the questions have been updated, but probably in the near future I will edit the quiz, replacing a few banal questions with simpler but more interesting ones.  Wink

I don't remember taking the quiz previously.  I

I did take aysg76's quiz and maybe a few other forum or bitcoin related quizes over the years.

I would not mind seeing a bit more of a mixture of questions.. both bitcoin and forum related.. easy and more difficult questions.. and maybe a dedicated thread.. solicitation for question topics.. suggestions privately and in the thread... maybe once a year re-issuance.. Yeah.. maybe a lot of work.. but not a bad topic.. and surely there could be some fun with that topic too.. maybe throw in old and new questions.. and yeah of course, repeat test takers would likely get better results, even if they don't study...

Muh Hedge against inflation

Actually, if you count the inflation from 2017-2022, you'll realize that BTC at the current price is almost close to the $20k ATH of 2017

Dogshit fartcoin with the worst performance of almost all cryptos and stocks if you hodled it since December 2017 (you know, 4yr+ ago)

Yes.,. very convenient of you mother f*(#$@%.., I mean motheryourwannabe to be starting your calculation of where bitcoin  is from BTC's top of last cycle..

You are hardly even trying to be genuine or to post either logic or facts in good faith...

Yeah.. you are back to your previous lil selfie.. talking bullshit and/or talking your book, so it seems?

I recall seeing some posts from you a few months ago, and you were all excited about BTC prices going up.. and I was tarting to speculate that perhaps you had gotten back to a more genuine way of posting information about bitcoin's true uniqueness in terms of an asset class that cannot be beaten when looked at under objective perspectives, but no, instead you are back to your misleading baloney bear-spin nonsense.. did you get that trick from your buddy jstolfi?.
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January 25, 2022, 01:26:58 AM
Merited by philipma1957 (5), vapourminer (3), JayJuanGee (1)

isnt miners revenue, just block rewards x btc price ?  thats useless

You need to look past the surface. Yes this is what the numbers on the charts mean, look at the pattern and times along with halvening events. The mining equipment infrastructure is what gives reason to mine, used to be you were only able to purchase the equipment with the coin it was intended to mine.

Please watch the documentary "the Price of Everything" consider the art dealers the Bitmain dealers etc.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58454516#msg58454516

Might have to dig a little deeper than looking at a chart.
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January 25, 2022, 01:27:04 AM


Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around.


How on earth did you come to such an erroneous conclusion? That makes zero sense.
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January 25, 2022, 01:36:32 AM
Merited by vapourminer (2), JayJuanGee (2), AverageGlabella (2)

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

The process of buying this amount was not easy I had to call my bank because the transaction was blocked then I had to wait 20-30 minutes for the bank to answer me. After that the customer service guy tried to lecture me about how cryptocurrency is very risky to invest in. I told him I had been around number of years but he said he had to go through all of it. I then had to confirm that I wanted to send this amount knowing the risk. They wanted me to come into the local bank and confirm some details but I told them because of the snowy conditions that would not be possible. He then allowed me to go through verification and send the amount. This probably took me over 2 hours to complete because I was put on hold many times. But do you know what the biggest eye opener of this experience was? with Bitcoin I would not need to go through this waste of time confirming my details because now I am my own bank. I do not need permission to spend my money even if it is for a risky investment. I am both relieved and scared. I have a lot of faith and I think I have bought at the best possible time and before completing the purchase I was 99% sure this was the right thing to do but the nerves have kicked in and I think I am probably about 60% sure now.

This is great to read. Congratulations on making the greatest financial decision, perhaps of your life to-date. As others have said, don't get panicked by dramatic price movements (either up or down). Perhaps put a significant amount of your BTC into cold storage so you're not tempted to panic sell at any point. And remember that nobody who has held BTC for at least four years has ever seen the value of their holdings go down in fiat terms. Well done, go spread the word (EDIT - to clarify: spread the word about the superiority of BTC, but probably keep to yourself the fact that you own BTC, for now).
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January 25, 2022, 01:41:30 AM
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Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around.


How on earth did you come to such an erroneous conclusion? That makes zero sense.


Makes sense to me.

Mining ⛏ difficulty is the backbone of btc.

btc is created by converting energy to coin.

more difficulty means more power is needed to mine a coin.

thus the base value of a coin is determined by power needed to mine it.

He is making perfect sense.

Any one that does not agree simply should go for pos coins and leave this thread 🧵

how is that for fighting words.

Now I stand by that.



edit if you don't it means you don’t belong here as a btc person or a pow person or a satoshi person


second edit ✍️ it is okay if you don’t believe in the POW 💥 concept that satoshi coined when he first set btc into motion.

But the whole idea is energy is used to create wealth.

POW


not POS


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January 25, 2022, 01:53:34 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (5)


Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around.


How on earth did you come to such an erroneous conclusion? That makes zero sense.


Makes sense to me.

Mining ⛏ difficulty is the backbone of btc.

btc is created by converting energy to coin.

more difficulty means more power is needed to mine a coin.

thus the base value of a coin is determined by power needed to mine it.

He is making perfect sense.

Any one that does not agree simply should go for pos coins and leave this thread 🧵

how is that for fighting words.

Now I stand by that.



edit if you don't it means you don’t belong here as a btc person or a pow person or a satoshi person


second edit ✍️ it is okay if you don’t believe in the POW 💥 concept that satoshi coined when he first set btc into motion.

But the whole idea is energy is used to create wealth.

POW


not POS




Yeah, I agree with you regarding PoW etc, but that doesn't mean that mining drives price. Also, demanding that people should leave this thread simply for not agreeing with you might suggest that you yourself are less suited to a thread such as this which requires discussion. What a very odd position to hold.
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January 25, 2022, 02:01:24 AM


Explanation
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January 25, 2022, 02:44:29 AM
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January 25, 2022, 02:48:58 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Richy_T (1)


Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around.


How on earth did you come to such an erroneous conclusion? That makes zero sense.


Makes sense to me.

Mining ⛏ difficulty is the backbone of btc.

btc is created by converting energy to coin.

more difficulty means more power is needed to mine a coin.

thus the base value of a coin is determined by power needed to mine it.

He is making perfect sense.

Any one that does not agree simply should go for pos coins and leave this thread 🧵

how is that for fighting words.

Now I stand by that.



edit if you don't it means you don’t belong here as a btc person or a pow person or a satoshi person


second edit ✍️ it is okay if you don’t believe in the POW 💥 concept that satoshi coined when he first set btc into motion.

But the whole idea is energy is used to create wealth.

POW


not POS




The market forces set the bitcoin price.
It's simple supply and demand, and the market don't care about miners expenses.
If for some reason everybody decides tomorrow that they no longer want any bitcoin and sell them all, the price will go to zero, regardless of how much power the miners use.
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January 25, 2022, 02:50:44 AM

I don't remember taking the quiz previously.  I

I did take aysg76's quiz and maybe a few other forum or bitcoin related quizes over the years.

I would not mind seeing a bit more of a mixture of questions.. both bitcoin and forum related.. easy and more difficult questions.. and maybe a dedicated thread.. solicitation for question topics.. suggestions privately and in the thread... maybe once a year re-issuance.. Yeah.. maybe a lot of work.. but not a bad topic.. and surely there could be some fun with that topic too.. maybe throw in old and new questions.. and yeah of course, repeat test takers would likely get better results, even if they don't study...
It was a test run after which I changed about 5 more questions  Tongue

 As for the last quiz, it was posted in this thread (and since it didn't have a separate thread, it's likely you missed it). Anyway, We are Live!!

[Voting] Bitcointalk Community Awards: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5382917.0
[Discussion] Bitcointalk Community Awards: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5277804
[Quiz] History of Bitcoin and Bitcointalk: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5381367.0
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January 25, 2022, 02:58:58 AM

Just back from a 2 week vacation, price down 8.5k in that time.

It's not too often a guy has two whole weeks to NOT look at the BTC price... .. or maybe to look.. but then not really be in a place to be able to do anything...


some of us should not be looking at the BTC price as much as we are.. but I can look at the charts, and I can see that on January 5 my first buy order was hit at $44k-ish, and I can see within the past 14 hours I had a buy order that filled at $33k-ish.. so I count those at 12 buy orders.. I suppose that if I had been on vacation, then I suppose I had not missed anything because all 12 buy orders filled.. but the price has not gone up enough to cause any triggering of sell orders since currently my first sell order does not start until $40k-ish.. at least for my current way of structuring matters.


I did not intend to buy any more Bitcoin but at these price levels (greed takes over) I am wiring fiat to the exchange today.

Fair enough... good that you have enough float for that.

Have had a catch up read through a selection of WO posts and in places detect a hint of fear even amongst 2 cycle hardened folks.

Hm?  Are we talking the normal ones who go into fear mode?  or new ones?  Frequently there are some new ones who come out of the woodwork, and other times, we will see some signs of breakings.. these are not easy times... gotta concede that much... I can imagine mistakes being made.. and surely we did see some posts of guys saying that they were selling a bit on the way down to be able to buy back lower.. not sure if that is going to work out very well.. but sometimes, we just hear afterwards about how supposedly "wonderful" it went.. hahahahaha.. if you could believe that?

Who banned Bitcoin this time now that China is completely banned out? oh! Russia.
A quick search of RT turns up a piece which gives no real cause for concern.
But it is enough alongside perfectly choreographed dumps to help panic sellers part with their coins.

You likely realize already that there is usually not just one supposed cause for any event that shakenings of weak hands, and for sure, there are quite a few folks who are coming to the conclusion that we already entered into the bear market.. so even if they are not selling coins... they are either waiting it out (before buying - presuming the price to be going lower for sures) and/or suggesting that others do the same.. and surely we likely realize that these guys are frequently on the side of having way the fuck too few coins and cannot even relate to why some longer term HODLers would not have any kinds of reservations to shave a coin off here or there as the BTC price is going up.. kind of a detachment from the asset class to NOT realize that it does not hurt to stock up a few extra coins when the price dips, even if the price might end up dipping a bit more in the future....

anyhow.. I am kind of getting into a $46k-ish arena before I am willing to suggest that the bottom might be in.. and surely.. not sure how long it might take to get there.. ?  We know king daddy could get there in less than 12 hours.. but it's really hard to have any ability to say that we might be well set up for that until after it happens... if it were to happen...and yeah, it could take weeks, weeks and more weeks for any kind of "surprise" UPpity to play out.  I am not proclaiming to know any of this.. except just to know that those things happen in bitcoinlandia from time to time, and if you are not in bitcoin when those price dynamics happen, then you likely will not get an opportunity to buy your previously sold coins (or the ones you failed to buy because you were "too busy" waiting because you are smarter than everyone else... blah blah blah.)

I do have some open orders

But really lucky guessing to hit 5 orders

Thinking first 3 are good imo

Last to on the lower side with a lowest of 23k (not exactly hoping to hit….. )

Just a worst case scenario imho…

I am thinking something similar.. if the most recent local bottom of $28,600 were to be breached.. probably the lowest that it could spike would be in the $23ks, and that surely would be a pretty decently long shot scenario.. that I also do not even expect $28,600 to be breached.. but hey in bitcoinlandia.. it can be helpful to be prepared for some of the more extreme scenarios.. even if we consider them to be long shots.

Lucky guessing targets, just if we go up I’m fine with it, if we go low I will end up with extra btc for cold storage…

Little question, op for everyone of from here ??
Where would be a smart to put 5 bids in order to BTD….?
Could maybe change my mind in my targets. Cheers..
...

I personally like to put them at equal intervals all the way down on the way down and don't even try to predict with any kind of precision.. but of course, if there are support strength points, then likely one would be above support strength point would be above $30k.. like maybe $31k.. and then another would be $29k--- ish (which is above $28,600).. ..

If $28,600 were to break then probably $26, 25k and $24k and $23k.. would each be possible support strength points.  .. really hate to think about down.. even though all of my buy orders have filled from $60k-ish through $33k-ish (which would be around 28 buy orders every $1k on the way down). so I only have about 13 orders left going down to $20k.. and really I don't want any of those remaining buy orders to fill..

I want to take all of that money off the table and out of the system (spend it on hookers, lambos and blow).. but I have not removed it, yet.. .. so hopefully, down is over.. so that I don't have to worry about any of those remaining 13 buy orders between $32k and $20k.. fuck that shit.

Actually.. why did we even go below $46k?  I would have preferred that my 13 already filled buy orders between $45k and $33k to have had also NOT been filled... fuck that shit.
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