Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

We just might see the heavily hailed Greta Great Reset develop in front of our eyes..  

I'm already thinking about how to answer "What did you do back then?" to my descendants. I can just hope they will have a nice life with the coins I leave them

[1713422844]

1713422844

[Gachapin]

since nobody posted it yet....


A truly wild moment yesterday from the House Financial Services Committee, where they laugh about the revolving door from Congress to the banks.
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1572984208825655296

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

We just might see the heavily hailed Greta Great Reset develop in front of our eyes..  

I'm already thinking about how to answer "What did you do back then?" to my descendants. I can just hope they will have a nice life with the coins I leave them

surreal meme...  If that comes true, life must be a parody on itself

[goldkingcoiner]

The last thing I would want to tell kidnappers is about my secret Bitcoin stash. God forbid they steal my coin and buy shitcoins with it.

[JayJuanGee]

DXY ($ index)-a big winner this year (so far) +15% (more if you had an interest bearing account).
Compare with -21.6% for S&P 500 (yes i know, even worse than this for bitcoin).
Cash is king...for now (still hodling, though, like a stubborn person I am).

I like this...!!!!

It's kind of like an admission against interest without details... ..since the details get held against you.. you "stubborn" lil whimp..





hahahahahaaha





nohomo

Most of the time, I would like to get rid of my fiat rather than holding onto it.. especially in recent times...

Obviously it's better and I agree with your opinion. what you dream of holding only a piece of money for years, of course its value will be lost by several factors such as inflation that cannot be stopped. but you are lucky if you hold 1 BTC for years to come because we know the longer the BTC will be difficult to get due to the limited supply. therefore shop wisely and manage your money for valuable assets in the years to come.

Of course, in that quoted statement I was exaggerating a bit, but in the overall context of my post, you may have realized that I was attempting to highlight a kind of Gresham's law dynamic that almost everyone has built-into them, even if they do not know it and even if they do not know what is Gresham's law.

If people have enough information about short term and longer term likelihoods that various forms of currencies and assets will hold their value, then they are going to spend the one that is least likely to hold its value first, and it sounds easy in theory, but in practice there is a lot of asymmetry of information both in terms of short-to-medium term timelines but also more difficulties in terms of trying to both figure out the future directions and even difficulties for normies to figure out their own time preferences because a lot of people have difficulties with deferred gratification - even if they might think that they are employing deferred gratification practices.

I am not trying to be "holier than thou" here, because everyone has difficulties with these kinds of calculations, even yours truly, and matters become more difficult because we are being lied to on a regular basis regarding money matters - and for sure, the more that we are able to employ critical thinking skills, then the more likely we will be able to employ various kinds of personal protections - and the personal protections are not necessarily going to be the same for everyone, even if some kinds of practices might have superior qualities that would be shared by almost everyone if all of us were to have equal access to the most true of information - and I am not even claiming that I know the truth, either... even if bitcoin does seem to be amongst the truest of possible values since it is designed to be attach value to information in such a way that is both paradigm shifting but quite difficult to corrupt or interfere with - even though it is also tied to human input and there are various way that people try to both gain value from bitcoin but also try to break it.

Of course, bitcoin cannot necessarily be true upon itself because why would any of us value bitcoin if it were not to have potentials to tie back to obtaining material wealth in the real world too.. whether obtaining investment or consumptive goods... whether used by individuals or institutions or governments.. pretty much equally available to friends and enemies.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Today's the day. Rigged markets are coming with one last big short push. Stonks, PMs, Bitcoin all getting hammered hard.

The insiders know that even if the Fed raises rates another time or two, they would be absolutely suicidal to raise another big hike like 75 or even 50 bp.

The Fed won't be able to maintain high rates for long, as the world economies will absolutely melt down.

As soon as the Fed sees the mass layoffs they so desperately want to see, they'll pivot like a mf'er. And the insiders know it.

This is bottom fishing time. If you want bitcoin, now's the time to buy it.

you are right and wrong.

I am certain we get 2 more rate hikes. a pair of .75 which will

 get near 5% by years end.

My reasoning is the I Bonds are a done deal
and the Social Security raise along with fed pensions  are all going to be 8% plus.

I bond number Is Oct 1

fed raises are Jan 1

they will fuel inflation bigly

thus 2 more raises. they back off in Feb or March .

But I am only guessing.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/21/economy/fed-rate-hike-september/index.html


one guess for I bond rate  on Nov 1

https://mishtalk.com/economics/what-will-the-i-bond-interest-rate-be-in-november-2022

maybe 7.9 to 12 %


ssn guess 9%

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/social-security-cost-of-living-adjustment-may-be-9point6percent-in-2023.html



fed salary rate hike 4.6%
https://federalnewsnetwork.com/mike-causey-federal-report/2022/09/2023-pay-raise-who-what-when-where-and-why/


fed pension rate hike maybe 8.7%
https://www.myfederalretirement.com/2023-cola-estimate/



this puts a lot of new money in the system

[JayJuanGee]

I am pretty sure that I like this one as much as I had liked the fish one..





.....but it seems that we need some kind of a hybrid.. ... with maybe some more details.. ?  Maybe?  Account for changes in prices, too?


This one from QNT (Fuck shitcoins).. has more categories.. and I am not sure if it would be helpful.




Of course, in bitcoin we likely realize that we should be attempting to be future proofing as much as possible.. so the vast majority of normies (regular people) are likely going to end up with less than 1 BTC, so I am not sure how helpful that might be.


Edit:  Oh yeah.. I almost forgot the Citadel depiction probably does provide a somewhat more accurate "future proof" depiction of levels (and now I am starting to recall that AlcoHODL already said this in earlier responses to these kinds of size of fish ideas.



Maybe all of those other attempts are wastes of time, when the citadel idea seems to capture more of the gradience.. even if maybe the numbers might need to be tweaked from time to time?

Don't forget "Pi Hole Coiner"....that would be yours truly...

Now, you would ruin a good idea.  Wouldn't you?


 

Don't forget "Pi Hole Coiner"....that would be yours truly...

Another possibility for classes of BTC HODLers would be based on Blocks:

50 BTC           Whale
25 BTC           Giant Squid
12.5 BTC        Shark
6.25 BTC        Swordfish
3.125 BTC      Tuna
1.5625 BTC    Dorado
0.78125 BTC   Trout
     .
     .
     .
     .

[Names above chosen for illustration, could also be levels of old-fashioned nobility for example]

You mean like a Citadel?

[DudeAtWork420]

Today's the day. Rigged markets are coming with one last big short push. Stonks, PMs, Bitcoin all getting hammered hard.

The insiders know that even if the Fed raises rates another time or two, they would be absolutely suicidal to raise another big hike like 75 or even 50 bp.

The Fed won't be able to maintain high rates for long, as the world economies will absolutely melt down.

As soon as the Fed sees the mass layoffs they so desperately want to see, they'll pivot like a mf'er. And the insiders know it.

This is bottom fishing time. If you want bitcoin, now's the time to buy it.

Really? But some people saying miners are still in profits and price will go below or break even to that points. I would not mind to wait for some more time before taking another entry. Targeting around 13k for my final entry though i am not sure price will go that far or not. But i wants to take that chance because the reason i already mentioned at first line.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Today's the day. Rigged markets are coming with one last big short push. Stonks, PMs, Bitcoin all getting hammered hard.

The insiders know that even if the Fed raises rates another time or two, they would be absolutely suicidal to raise another big hike like 75 or even 50 bp.

The Fed won't be able to maintain high rates for long, as the world economies will absolutely melt down.

As soon as the Fed sees the mass layoffs they so desperately want to see, they'll pivot like a mf'er. And the insiders know it.

This is bottom fishing time. If you want bitcoin, now's the time to buy it.

Really? But some people saying miners are still in profits and price will go below or break even to that points. I would not mind to wait for some more time before taking another entry. Targeting around 13k for my final entry though i am not sure price will go that far or not. But i wants to take that chance because the reason i already mentioned at first line.

More bad for short term price news


1 trillion in ssn goes to 1.09 trillion
323 billion  in fed pensions goes to  350 billion
2.2 trillion in fed  salaries goes to 2.4 trillion


and load knows how many 9.62% I bonds were purchased

and if I bonds go to 12% holy shit what then.

I think we see a possible 500 billion in found or extra money being released from now til April.

you have the

 I bond number oct 1
 SSN number--------Jan 1
 Fed pension Number -- Jan 1
 Fed salary Number ---- Jan 1

all add to make inflation worse.

I see  more hikes going till  Feb 1 or March 1

Then rates may drop.


good long term below:

oh bitmain has a really good sale on the s19 pro miner

https://support.bitmain.com/hc/en-us/articles/10687719622681

this miner will come about oct 20 and come with a 30% off next unit.

[fr4nkthetank]

I was looking at bitcoin mining companies (hint: they arent doing well).  I always thought publicly listed mining companies were trash, especially since none (?) of them return any money to investors through dividends or whatever.
Then I came accross Hive Blockchain.  Holy moly, I calculate 100-150million in assets (coin, miners, etc), but its worth almost 500 million.  But get this.

"Of these 21.5 MW, approximately 14.8 MW are comprised of legacy GPU cards (primarily AMD Radeon RX580 cards)"  Someone correct me if i'm stupid with math, but that's like 120 000 RX580s.  Apparently they have 3cents power, so all that 14.8MW makes about net 500$ profit a day.

They say their company is "undervalued"    If Bitcoin falls further, with difficulty increases, we might see a similar scenario play out with big bitcoin miners next year or something, or near halving if price doesnt go up.  Maximum pain is still ahead of us I believe.  That ain't a bad thing btw.  Got to have a little rain to make a rainbow

[JayJuanGee]

BTC will shut their mouths and they will They will lick their own ass۔

Wow....

How is that possible?   ....I mean to lick ass with your mouth shut ?  ..and your own ass at that...

I'm by far no expert in that regard, but I'm willing to learn..  please share some of your knowledge..

There's an art to the use of a variety of "mixed metaphors," if we might be so graciously liberal to attempt to interpret the profundity of ThemePen's posts as such.. even looking back at his description of his kiddie bowling link as the "puppets knocking down the bottles."

hahahahaha

We should strive for some language discipline, no?  Our attempts at art should at least have some semblance of reality or we may also finding ourselves into the gutters of shitcoinlandia....

My horse riding days are behind me. Getting older and don't want to risk a Christopher Reeve kinda situation. Safer to drive around the property on a 4 wheeler John Deere Gator. And can carry more practical load than horseback.

The horse's strength is now only needed in the body. No one in this modern civilization depends on horse to transport anything. Now everyone uses four wheelers for transportation. Because cars can transport more and more safely than horses.

Oh my... 

Have you heard of "terrain?"

Of the several differences between USD and Bitcoin, which one would you choose now? because in general both are also very much needed.

You are starting out your post by coming off as a "know it all."  Was that your intention?

In other words, why are you trying to stick us into a box in which we have to choose one or the other.  Why not both?

The reality of our current world is that we do have the option of both, and most likely if we are attempting to protect our own interests, we better fucking be choosing both.. or at least figuring out some kind of a reasonable and prudent allocation to both - and it is not even locked into exactly any specific time because if we choose to allocate 0% and 100% today, in a few days we can change our mind and we could choose to allocate 10% and 90%, or whatever other ratio that each of us would like to choose (or even be forced to choose in a different way at a later time, if we make poor allocation choices at earlier points in time.. or we can be stubborn or ignorant about it, too.. that's a choice, no?).

As many people know that any traditional currency has special characteristics which Bitcoin does not have because Bitcoin is not supported by any authority.

Yes.. those are quite likely features rather than bugs.  I am not saying that bitcoin does not have faults, but you seem to be going down the path of wanting to criticize bitcoin for some of its central design features, and you are likely not going to get very far in these here parts with those kinds of arguments because many of us have likely been studying the bitcoin space way longer than you (your arguments show a kind of presumptive naivette in terms of your trying to patronizingly 'splain to us how you know things that we do not know)..

Features of traditional currency:

• Divisible — can be converted into smaller pieces for specific uses such as paying a certain amount or micropayment.
• Non-consumable — cannot be consumed for purposes other than the exchange of value.
• Portable — can be easily carried around.
• Durable — doesn't wear out or depreciate over time or under certain conditions.
• Secure — cannot be faked.
• Easy to transfer.
• Rare — cannot be replicated indefinitely.
• Fungible — each part has the same value as its equivalent.
• Recognizable — recognized and accepted as a means of transaction.

These are not exactly completely true.. even if you want to present such purities in regards to fiat.  Merely because you say these things do not make them true.. It would likely be a waste of time for me to go through each one of these categories..

As for Bitcoin as a whole, unlike traditional currencies:

• Has no central authority claiming it supports money.
• Is subject to deflation due to artificial scarcity, while central banks can print more money at any time.
• Whether every transaction is forever recorded on an immutable public ledger.
• Requires transaction fees to be paid to miners.
• Transactions are carried out over the internet and include a public address.

Again a lot of deficiencies in your categories and your descriptions, and even though I appreciate that you were not afraid to specify bitcoin, it seems that you neither know what is bitcoin if we were to be referring to onchain bitcoin versus various second/third layers or even that you might be describing some features/dynamics that are not really bitcoin specific, such as referring to shitcoin features.

[/list]
Source:

• https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagEDU/status/1572950463883919361/photo/1
• https://cryptonews.com/guides/difference-of-bitcoin-from-traditional-currencies.htm

Oh?  I see since you are pretty much copying and pasting from that cited article.. these are not really your ideas anyhow..

I feel like I just wasted 15 minutes responding to this lame bullshit.  There are a lot of lame articles out there.. including the one you cited as your authority CageMabok.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Piesel]

Why are the shitcoinairs trying so hard to attempt to merge Bitcoin and other coins and trying to create a semblance between Bitcoin and altcoins and trying to create a battle between USD and Bitcoin when both can co-exist independently and exist in the same economic system without one have to give way to the other.

BTC is a better alternative and not shitcoins!

[JayJuanGee]

BTC will shut their mouths and they will They will lick their own ass۔

Wow....

How is that possible?   ....I mean to lick ass with your mouth shut ?  ..and your own ass at that...

I'm by far no expert in that regard, but I'm willing to learn..  please share some of your knowledge..

Hehehe... Savage Gachapin.
Everything is possible.
You are a Bitcoin Retard.
You won't understand.

Everything is possible?

You sound like a shitcoiner, Crypt0S0ul.

Vitalik?  Is that you?

Helo frens.

How iz ur traed?

I like your attempt at dissimulation to steer away from the sp(a)ying all seeing A..I over the webz. That is why I write " BTCiTcoin " as JJG does not understand, to not appear between the lines of code.      

Well you better improve your communication skils then (if we can be so bold as to label what you are doing as such?).    

You know I do not rly care much about a JayJuanComputer understanding or listening to what I say.        ... I will eventually come often to pee on its grave.        

Oh gawd...  

TLDR: "I don't care but I do."

 

At least there is some humour here today.  

REALLY!!! You can't even go back 2 Fucking pages!?!?!

Probably where he got the idea from, lol.

I'm making it a policy not to merit any account in the WO with under 100 merits, or 200 merits, or just if I feel like you are here to merit farm... go get your rank-up merits elsewhere, and come back after you've had time to develop the knowledge necessary to contribute worthwhile discussion.

Nancy!!!!!   Is that you?

[edited out]

Exactly! You'll need expertise to discuss conspiracy theories, Covid, Russia-Ukraine war (aka ww3), John Deere stuff, butthole tanning and some gay xmas cards with WO regulars!  

That's the spirit!!!!

Sorry I'm too dumb.

You can say that again.

[~root of JJG stolen idear~]

sometimes I just wanna feel like a kitten playing with yarn ...

No!!!!

Don't do it.. Next thing you will be bringing in dead squirrels as "gifts".

[Gachapin]

Why are the shitcoinairs trying so hard to attempt to merge Bitcoin and other coins and trying to create a semblance between Bitcoin and altcoins and trying to create a battle between USD and Bitcoin when both can co-exist independently and exist in the same economic system without one have to give way to the other.

BTC is a better alternative and not shitcoins!

Bitcoin has POW  ...in fact it's the strongest POW network on earth.

Energy is limited.

It's extremely difficult run a second BTC, because you cannot inflate energy.

But you can inflate the number of non-POW shitcoins to infinity.


Right now, no shitcoin can possibly reach Bitcoin's unique power physically.  So shitcoiners try it at least verbally, hoping to dupe enough people into buying their trash.

Lacking own real power, shitcoins are desperate to present themselves as being unique. That's why they gather around and compare themselves to the most powerful player which is BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

the afternoon wall report


the sea of red continued today for legacy and most other markets as a strong US dollar wrought havoc on the major indexes and most foreign currencies....the UK pound falling to a 30 year low with the DYX up 1.5%
bitcoin weathered most a the storm this week fairly well, down -2.5% on the day and giving back gains on the week

oof da may

very frothy markets....but am impressed with bitcoins relative stability is about all I can say atm
hodl on and see where things land...volatility will remain entrenched into Oct methinks

dyor

4h



D

stronghands