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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26391637 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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January 08, 2023, 09:01:21 PM


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January 08, 2023, 09:02:59 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), philipma1957 (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

❗️Longest 🥇 Bitcoin Bear Market Ever: 👇

2011 Bear Market (163 days)
June 8th, 2011 - Nov 18th, 2011

2013-2015 (406 days)
Dec 4th, 2013 - Jan 14th, 2015

2017-2018 (364 days)
Dec 16th, 2017 - Dec 15th, 2018

2021-2022 (426 days)
Nov 8th, 2021 - Jan 8th, 2023

Source: @Cryptocurrency_Inside

Those numbers are weird, but they also presume picking the bottom, which so far for this cycle, our bottom (of $15,479) was on November 20, 2022.. so a little bit more than a year after the November 8, 2021 top that is listed for this cycle.

Also bear markets are not really known to be over until there is a certain kind of comfort that the bottom is in..   Perhaps the 2015 bear market might have been either in late 2015 or I like to use the end of May 2016 as my confirmation that the 2015-whatever bear market was over.

For 2018, I like to use the April 1 to June 27, 2019 price run, so somewhere in around mid-May 2019, there was a certain level of confidence that they 2018 bear market was over.

For this one, at this point in time, we have little to no clue, beyond speculation.. .. we are still too close to the so far November 20, 2022 bottom....   I think that getting above the 200-week moving average (which is currently about $24,400) would be a good start - yet I am not even sure if we would have to get above the 200-week moving average in order to start to feel comfort that the bottom for this cycle might be in.. which is kind of weird, when you think about the matter... The 200-week moving average has tended to be the low for the BTC prices in the previous cycles, and this cycle it seems that the 200-week moving average is the price that we are wanting to get above in order to perhaps start to feel more comfortable about the bottom being in.

"be like JJG just DCA"
He doesn't have to do DCA until he does not understand what he is doing and what Bitcoin is.
He should learn more about Bitcoin before he invests. Otherwise, he will blame his friend for even short-term loss.
so he has to “not understand what he is doing”  in order to do DCA.

which is exactly why you should do DCA. Understanding the why of it is not necessary at all.

I agree that there is no real need to know all of the particulars of why you are investing into bitcoin, but you do have to have some level of confidence regarding the fundamentals of the thing that you are investing in (BTC in this case) to appreciate that in the longer term (at minimum the period of your investment) the odds are pretty decent that the price is going to go up.... and surely, there are no guarantees that the price will actually go up (BTC in this case), but the reason to invest into it should be that there is some kind of a belief or an assessment that foundationally (fundamentally) it is a good investment.

If he can commit to 66 better yet 99 weekly fiat dca buys of Btc that he can afford to lose he need not understand the why of it.

Now most investors cant do the simplest thing there is to do DCA weekly for a year or two or three or four.

It is how wealth is formed.

Most investors pick too much to use for DCA and do not stick to it come hell or high water.

I can frankly tell you I am guilty of an inability of proper DCA of btc.

But for the last ten fridays I did x dollars at coinbase so I made 10 straight DCA buys.

I would love to see just how many I can do. so
I picked a very reasonable weekly fiat number that I should be able to do for all of 2023 and all of 2024.

I agree with you here in regards towards that historically it seems that you had not really known what you were doing in regards to DCA - or at least you never did commit to it through and through because even if you had committed to DCA buying over the first 10 years of your bitcoin exposure of even $10 per week, then you would have likely accumulated more than 100 BTC (The DCA chart does not allow measuring more than 9 years at a time, but we can see that 9 years starting from January 2012 gets us 87 BTC, but then
we can also see that only investing for three years starting from January 2012 would have still gotten us close to 84 BTC), but it is more difficult to blame anyone for failure to hang onto all of their BTC.. .. so then maybe part of the question might have been how many BTC would have been reasonable to hang onto through all of that time in which it could have been pretty inexpensive to get 100s of BTC for perhaps less than a few thousand dollars of investment?

So DCA is one aspect in order to attempt to reach a decent accumulated amount of BTC, but then hanging onto the investment seems to be another important part of the whole thing, no?

In recent times, I had been considering my own BTC accumulation, and if I were to aggressively invest into BTC starting right now, employing similar tactics as I had employed starting in late 2013, the amount of BTC that I would be able to accumulate in the coming 2-3 years would likely be something in the territory of 5% to 10% the size of my current stash, at best. 

There may well be some ways that these days folks are able to be more aggressive in their BTC accumulation because perhaps there are more dollars in circulation, so wages are higher than they were 9 years ago, but still it is difficult to imagine even aggressive BTC accumulation adding up to the amounts of BTC that earlier BTC adopters would have been able to accumulate. 

So I am not even really disagreeing with anything that you are saying in terms of what seems to be a need for younger people (with at least a 4-10 year timeline) to get started soon and to be as aggressive as you can be, but I am not sure if I would be making the same recommendation for someone who is going on 66 years old.  It is more difficult to make that recommendation for someone who may well need to stay more liquid and may not really have a 4-10year or longer investment timeline.. and the question for me for someone with a shorter timeline would not necessarily be NOT to do it, but instead I would have some concern about level of aggressiveness for anyone who might not comfortably be able to say that they have a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline..

In other words, younger people are able to afford to be more aggressive than older people in their investment into BTC strategies - even though they still have to be careful NOT to be overly aggressive in terms of NOT being able to cover their expenses or otherwise putting themselves into some kind of a pickle because they had overly invested into BTC and not made sure that their various expenses were covered.

DCA investing is a basic plan that everyone in the world that does any investing should try to do one good long DCA. Maybe four years is a good goal.

I did one long dca move with one item in my life (doge) I simply saved every doge I mined from 2018 to 2021. That is not the dca move. I matched what I mined during that time.

Fuck shitcoins.  DCA does not apply to shitcoins because you cannot have any reasonable and/or meaningful assessment that they have long term value.  The rug can be pulled on you at anytime in the various shitcoins.


My return was really good. yeah it is a different coin but had I done the same with btc for 2012 to 2015 I would be exceedingly rich.

Well, $10 per week for 4 years would have gotten you around 86 BTC. I imagine that could be described as "exceedingly rich," and of course, putting $100 per week would have gotten 10x that amount, so 870 BTC, and still abilities to sell along the way and still have a couple hundred BTC, which probably would have been a decent play if any normie might have realistically been able to accomplish something like that.

I learned the hard way DCA is the way to go. You do not need to understand this at all.

Just Believe in JJG and DCA what you can afford to lose.

Hopefully not believing in me because ultimately each of us is responsible for our approach in terms of how to accumulate BTC, and has to establish some kind of a system that is within our level of comfort - even if we are able to get started right away, we should also be attempting to hone our BTC accumulation strategy in a way that we are comfortable with the level of our investment into BTC and also to be able to figure out our target BTC accumulation level, then to maintain our BTC accumulation level in a way that is profitable and tailored to ourselves and the various financial and psychological goals that we are striving to achieve.
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January 08, 2023, 10:01:17 PM


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January 08, 2023, 10:06:21 PM

An idea whose time has come. #BTC   



https://twitter.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/1612155659067265024?t=ZDP_gDJHX1ecjKYzBD5Uqg&s=19
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January 08, 2023, 10:19:07 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

DCA is how a moderate wealth is formed.
Deep value bulk buy and hold is how typically a larger wealth is formed, it is just a fact, albeit this is more risky.
As usual, more risk, more reward.
Of course, you can do a combination of bulk buy and DCA.

Then, there is something that I call a VC approach-a relatively  small $ number for many very early/risky projects/stocks/whatever.
In this case, most will not pan out, but some will work great if you can choose them wisely. It's difficult to do and wait times could be more than a decade.
In this approach, you would have to intentionally limit your initial allocation and wait (could do small DCA) longer.

My main conundrum, though, are not with the investments themselves, but with cashing out. It seems that in most cases it is never a good time to cash out, but then, how to monetize holdings?
As we already know, typical means did not pan out in "our" area-witness Celsius, Blockfi, etc., etc.
Selling an asset with basically unlimited potential such as bitcoin seems stupid, although I did sell as needed here and there (not at tops or bottoms).
In a current environment it is simple: just have a large cash account and collect 4, soon 5% in interest, no need to sell anything, but once we drop to 2-3%, money would move toward more risky assets again.

TL;DR It is psychologically difficult to peel off money for consumption from assets such as bitcoin.

For example... buy 20 BTC in mid 2015 at around $250 per BTC ($5k invested), and then just sit on them and wait for them to become $10 million per BTC.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

How's that working for you?

I am not totally against either the idea of lump sum investing or even supplementing DCA with buying on dips and lump sum investing, but there remains a quite a bit of value in terms of DCA investing in terms of the ability to potentially be more aggressive in a longer period of time without really feeling the psychological pressures of putting a lump sum amount into an investment.

Let's say that you started investing in BTC at the top of the BTC price in late 2013, but you decided to be somewhat aggressive in your DCA approach, so you decided that you were going to DCA at $240 per week for four years, so the amount invested would have been 10x the amount of the $5k lump sum that you made in 2015 to buy those 20 BTC.. so instead you end up investing $50k over 4 years, and you end up with around 104.5 BTC with around a $50k investment.  Seems pretty good to me... around $1k per month, $12k per year spread over 4 years and ending up with more than 100 BTC.

I think that my main point is that DCA can allow you to be more aggressive over a longer period of time and not necessarily feel psychological and financial pressures of a lump sum investment, even if in the longer term you may well end up spending more per BTC on average, but you may well end up with a larger BTC stash too.

Right now, would you rather have

Option 1:  20 BTC that you purchased for around $250 each for a total of $5k

or

Option 2:  104.5 BTC that you purchased for around an average cost of $480 each for a total of $50k...

Yes, option 2 cost you way more and was spread over 4 years to attain it, but if we are looking 10 to 20 years further down the road, which one is going to give yoiu more options in terms of what to do?

And, don't be telling me that you could have just bought $50k when the BTC price was $250 because that was not even an option.  People do not tend to be able to have that much free cashflow (lump sum) that they are willing to put into a risky investment like BTC, but if they invest over several years, they are able to establish a sufficiently aggressive position that they would have never been able to accumulate if they would have had to rely on making lump sum investments of something like $5k at a stretch.. They are just not able to do it.. but they can do $10 per week or maybe even up to $250 per week with more aggressive approaches, and even if the more aggressive approaches might put some financial and psychological strain on them, it can be a manageable of financial and psychological strain or they can cut back a bit on their weekly amount to make their DCA into a sufficiently aggressive amount that is within their financial and psychological budget. .and spread over something like 4 years (or whatever other timeline that they deem to be reasonable.. maybe they have to spread it over 10 years or maybe they can put it into a tighter front-loading time period, but even if they end up investing $10 per week over 10 years, that can surely bring them to a place that they would have not been able to achieve with lump sum investing because they do not have those kinds of lump fund levels that are at their disposal at any given time).

F dca'ing, buy the dips and sell the rips!

Have fun staying poor with your IBonds or whatever it is that you are supposedly buying, if anything.. actually more likely that you are failing/refusing to buy.. even if some people in your same position will be laughing at you 4-10 years down the road when they compare their $10 per week into bitcoin while you were spending your $10 per week on Lattes or whatever it would have been that you would have been doing with such $10 per week cashflows that you could have been  putting into my lil precious. .and whining about DCA no doesn't work... blah blah blah.

Good post from Jay...

I'm also in favor of DCA and would recommend it to noobs (and everyone, really).

Having said that, and knowing what I know now about this space, and considering the current Bitcoin price and time point relative to the Halvings, I'd say to the brave ones to go all-in, if they have the guts. Had I gone all-in back in 2015 when I started, my stash would now be at least 10 times larger.

But yeah, DCA is the safest approach. Win-win really.

All in is really difficult to do... both psychologically and financially... even if someone has a good-sized lump sum that they are able to invest into BTC, and even if they have equity in their house that they are able to use.. it is just really difficult to do, and also difficult to feel comfortable that the bottom is in and all of the psychological and financial problems that can end up coming with that too, especially if it ends up NOT being true...   

Remember member AverageGlabella at around $34k went all in (would have been early 2022, no?).. and then looked like a genius while the BTC price stayed above that amount for several months, until it did not.. and I am not even saying that AverageGlabella did the wrong thing, but sometimes there can be some advantages to just DCAing which might even work better when the BTC price is down or going down or flat.. but surely there can be some nervousness that comes into play to be DCAing when the BTC price is going up.... and in those times, lump sum investing is objectively better, but we never can really know for sure that the BTC price is going up or that the bottom is in until several months (and maybe even a year or more later).

@ JJG you tell him.
@ everyone else be like JJG just DCA.

I got 10 weeks in a row going for 11 next Friday.

The more I DCA the easier it is to do. Wink

About mid 2021, I suggested that a then nocoiner person that I know in real life who was around 61 years old at the time to DCA $100 per week, and she said that she could ONLY afford around $50 per week.  I said that every new purchase that she makes, she will need to have at least a 4-year investment timeline on each of those purchases in order to feel that she is not going to need to access that money, and her investment may or may not be profitable, but she should consider 4 years or longer for each purchase of BTC that she makes, and even if she is ONLY able to invest over the next 4 years at $50 per week, then those later purchases would still need a 4 year time line from the time that she buys them.. so in some sense I was attempting to suggest that she front loads her BTC purchases with her use of her DCA.    Anyhow, we know that BTC prices are way cheaper now than they were in mid-2021.. so pretty much her whole period of DCA purchasing (presuming that she is still doing it) would have been while the BTC price is continuing to go down.  I have not touched base with her for a few months, so I am not 100% sure that she is still buying $50 per week.. which surely would be good if she can continue to buy $50 per week or even to increase her amount, but of course, whatever she does is up to her, and she would be around 62 years old now and presumptively turning 63 in 2023.

The longer the timeline the better, and I had conversations with people in their 70s in regards to bitcoin, and surely there are age dynamics with that too.

I did have another person in my life who largely I got into bitcoin in her early 60s in 2014, and she had bought a bit more than 20 BTC over a few years, and had largely spent less than $10k and likely sold more than $120k of coins at various times until in 2021 some of her coins around 9 BTC or 10 BTC had gotten taken from her because of a phishing attack (and her being dumb about thinking that Coinbase support was helping her to fix her supposed Coinbase account issues... blah blah blah).. and then so far she lost maybe around 3.5 BTC because of Voyager issues that started around June 2022... So she made a lot of money, but she lost a lot too... so one thing is having a long time horizon, and another thing is sufficiently and adequately protecting any of the BTC that any of us accumulate (I know that you Phil seem to have some decent cold storage solutions, but still we all have to be careful that a lot of the hard work that we are doing to accumulate BTC does not just go poof because of our becoming vulnerable in the various ways that we are attempting to maintain our coins once we accumulate them including considering our avenues for liquidation when we are getting older, too).
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January 08, 2023, 10:51:56 PM

DCA works fine during a bear market. but when the bull market starts its way better to just go all in or like half now half at a better price if given the opportunity.
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January 08, 2023, 11:01:17 PM


Explanation
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January 08, 2023, 11:05:24 PM

1hour chart look gr8

loving this 16969 price  Grin edit: annnndd its gone.  Tongue

dont miss the train guys, its leaving soon!
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January 08, 2023, 11:10:00 PM

DCA works fine during a bear market. but when the bull market starts its way better to just go all in or like half now half at a better price if given the opportunity.

Well one can argue when to do DCA if the market is going up up and away.


Right now the Market is all about a sideways motion.

That calls for DCA.

If you wait for buy low sell high it does not work if the low has happened a few moths ago.

I started DCA on NOV 4 Friday the 2022

x fiat for 10 weeks = 10x

I also did some buys at 15.7 and 15.9 and 16.2

 4x each and 1 more buy at 16.55 4x.  this means I grabbed 16x on dips and 10x on DCA.

I do have dips set for 15.5 and 14.9


All of the above has nothing to do with my mining which is a grind for me and my 3 partners.
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January 08, 2023, 11:19:39 PM

I bought on the luna crash low in June like 17Kish and bought some more recently to lower my avg price and attempt to buy at the bottom.
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January 08, 2023, 11:24:48 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)

F dca'ing, buy the dips and sell the rips!

Screw that. Buy when you can. Sell when you must.
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January 08, 2023, 11:25:30 PM
Last edit: January 09, 2023, 01:41:53 AM by Biodom

@jjg...I don't think your numbers really prove anything as one could have gotten 200 BTC in 2015 (at $250) for $50K or 100btc for 25K instead of 20 for $5K as far as bulk purchase is concerned.
I still posit that earlier on, bulk btc purchase was better than DCA. Nobody stops you to do a small DCA later, sure.
What I am getting at is that, apart from bitcoin going to $5-10mil or more in the period that is longer than usual investor timeline, say 20 years, it is difficult to imagine that current small DCA of a thou or even 10 thou a year would result in a TRUE wealth in a foreseeable future.
I played with uphold DCA calculator that has limited capability: I inputted 12 mo DCA 8k/mo during 2015 (it cannot accept variable amounts per mo for a bulk purchase).
Total amount spent 96K, total number of bitcoins 351.
If you do the same one year DCA later, for example 2017, using the same money (8k/mo), you get just 45btc, which is about 8 times less.
In 2020-9 BTC.
In 2021, you would have gotten "just" 2 BTC (175 times less than in 2015).
2022-4 BTC (better than 2021, but still about 90 time "worse" than 2015).
So, if you combine just those three years (2020-2022), you would have spent 288K buying 15BTC (19.2K/btc)
I made an example in a way that it easier to see what would happen if you use 1/10 (about 800/mo or about 10K, year-more of a middle class investor realm of possibilities).
In such case (1/10), you would have spent about $29K while DCAing in 2020-2022 and got 1.5BTC, which is not a significant number for being wealthy, unless it goes to $5 mil and inflation gets to 2% a year soon.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is just too big in market cap already...could do 10X, maybe even 30-50X (to be like gold).
Going forward, it is likely that you would get low single digits btc/year EVEN if investing at a rate that is beyond typical middle class possibilities (in my example).
Surely, Musk can always buy a lot of btc.
In 10 years even 5-10 btc could be a fortune (if inflation cooperates), so members should play with numbers and see how they can get there depending on their current situation.
However, if bitcoin continues it's upward trajectory, buying "bulk" would always get you more btc than DCA, as shown in my examples above.
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January 09, 2023, 12:01:21 AM


Explanation
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January 09, 2023, 12:02:23 AM

look like a whale just did that monthly BTC DCA  Cheesy

that or JJG just realized that DCA is for pussies and finally went all in
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January 09, 2023, 12:39:46 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I bought on the luna crash low in June like 17Kish and bought some more recently to lower my avg price and attempt to buy at the bottom.


I suspect you have none
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January 09, 2023, 12:57:51 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), d_eddie (1), Arriemoller (1)

#haikuSunday

here we go again
another year to observe
i got my popcorn
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January 09, 2023, 01:01:17 AM


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January 09, 2023, 01:07:19 AM

I bought on the luna crash low in June like 17Kish and bought some more recently to lower my avg price and attempt to buy at the bottom.


I suspect you have none


i'm going to sell some rn, buy the dip sell the rip! Grin
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January 09, 2023, 01:56:18 AM

DCA works fine during a bear market. but when the bull market starts its way better to just go all in or like half now half at a better price if given the opportunity.

DCA works at any price, and it is not about trying to figure out if the BTC price is up or down or in a bear market or in a bull market.

The main idea for DCAing into bitcoin is that ultimately the BTC price is going to go up.

If you think that you are smarter than the market or that you believe that you can time the market, then you can attempt to either substitute with buying on dips and lump sum investing into BTC.  Or you can supplement your DCA approach with buying on dips and lump sum investing.

Frequently part of the issue with a lot of normies is that we do not have lump sums of money that we can invest or even an already established investment portfolio in which a part of one asset can be cashed out in order to buy into bitcoin.

So frequently the best that you might be able to get is $100 per week or maybe some other amount that is feasible and reasonable.

Sure, you could let you $100 per week build up in order that you are able to lump sum invest when the BTC dip comes, but no body knows when the dip is coming... even when the BTC prices were at $69k in November 2021, no one knew that the BTC prices were going to go down from there.. so just start fucking buying at reasonable amounts such as $100 per week, and if you want to try to be strategic with some of the money to buy on dips then maybe you save for 26 weeks and you end up having $2,600 that you are able to buy when the BTC price goes down from $69k to $35k, and then you put all of your $2,600 in at $35k, but then you are faced with the same fucking problem.. you ran out of money.. and the price keeps dipping, even though you thought that you had saved all of your $100 each week in order to buy on the dip.  You bought on the dip and then 3 months later you find the BTC price at $19k, or whatever and then later down the $15.5k, and so how are you going to know how much to DCA, buy on dips and or lump sum invest?  Each person does his her best, and DCA tends to be a strategy/practice that facilitates commitment and perhaps even investing way more than you might do if you were trying to be more strategic about the whole matter and you end up being a bitcoin whimp because you are always waiting for more dip and failing/refusing to act with commitment... and get off of your ass and buy some lil precious.

DCA works fine during a bear market. but when the bull market starts its way better to just go all in or like half now half at a better price if given the opportunity.
Well one can argue when to do DCA if the market is going up up and away.

Right now the Market is all about a sideways motion.

That calls for DCA.

You are mixing up the concepts of DCA with buying on dips.  Sure you can do that, but DCA does not give any shits... just buy regularly, and sure you can try to be somewhat strategic about it in terms of buying more BTC when the price is down and less when the BTC price is up, but when you are trying to time the market, you are no longer exercising pure DCA, which also more of a pure DCA should facilitate that you are making assessments in regards to other BTC accumulation goals that you might have, whether it is to get to fuck you status or something like that.

Don't get me wrong.  I am not against supplementing any BTC accumulation strategy with buying on dips, lump sum investing or even HODL strategies (or sometimes other trading strategies too), but those are not DCA strategies, those are other strategies that may or may not be used to supplement DCA strategies and or might be used to otherwise play the market rather than pure or proper DCA.

If you wait for buy low sell high it does not work if the low has happened a few moths ago.

That's called trading.... which is also different from DCAing.

I started DCA on NOV 4 Friday the 2022

x fiat for 10 weeks = 10x

I also did some buys at 15.7 and 15.9 and 16.2

4x each and 1 more buy at 16.55 4x.  this means I grabbed 16x on dips and 10x on DCA.

I do have dips set for 15.5 and 14.9

All of the above has nothing to do with my mining which is a grind for me and my 3 partners.

For sure, you can have a variety of strategies going on with different pots of money.. or even if you get an extra $1,200 that comes into your cashflow that you had not expected, you could make choices regarding how that $1,200 gets plugged in.  For example, you could divide it into three parts.  One part ($400) goes towards buying right away at any price, a second part ($400) goes towards DCA, such as $10 per week for the next 40 weeks or $4 per week for the next 100 weeks or $100 per week for the next 4 weeks or however you would like to divide it, and the third part ($400) goes towards buying on dips, such as 40 orders for $10 each every time the BTC price drops $100 or 4 orders for $100 each every time the BTC price drops $500 or whatever you want to do.    So there are ways to set up your buy orders to go all the way down to $3k if you want or to have your DCA extend out until 2026.. if you are able to dedicate certain known cashflows towards BTC purchases that fit within the categories that you set up completely within your discretion.. and some aspects of your funds you are going to know in advance and other aspect you are not going to know in advance but you can still have systems to plug new cashflows into existing systems, and of course, the more you are able to practice following the various systems the more you might be willing to adjust them in such a way that they trigger more frequently or less frequently depending on the accumulation goals that you have and/or the sustainability that you might want to retain within the systems that you set up.

I bought on the luna crash low in June like 17Kish and bought some more recently to lower my avg price and attempt to buy at the bottom.

Nothing wrong with that if you have money to buy during those price points.. some people ran out of money and bought on dips down to $30k or whatever, then did not have any money left.  There are all kinds of variations in regards to what people had done and were able to do, including that some people have still not deployed their cash because they are waiting for sub $10k.. which they may or may not be able to buy at their target prices.

Are you saying that you know where the BTC price is going in advance TrustedBitcoiner?  Should we subscribe to your newsletter too?   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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January 09, 2023, 02:01:17 AM


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