Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Who is John Galt?]

It works until it doesn't....but it is unknowable when that happens.

We don't know when, but we know what will happen. As usual, they will announce that a global universal crisis has come, the efforts of the whole nation must be made in order to overcome it. The rich will become richer, the poor will become poorer. And everything will continue as it was before.

Fiat currencies are good for governments in that you don't really have to answer to anyone for devaluation. It is enough to make a few populist statements. It's great, right?!

If you are not a government, then it is better to stock up on bitcoins in your wallet in advance. So, just in case.

[darkangel11]

Whatever effect brrr has, it takes years if not decades to play out.
With the electorate that cannot put two and two together, the effects are unclear.
Of course, 'hiding' in bitcoin provides some solace.

Gov debt is at 30+ tril, right?
Now, imagine it at 40 tril...basically the "same" thing.
Then, 50 tril....same vibe.
It works until it doesn't....but it is unknowable when that happens.

I can see some situation developing in maybe 10 years, though, as by then the Trust fund for social security would be depleted (google it, projected numbers are from 2032-2034) and boomers would "suddenly" lose 20-24% of their social security payments. That would be a "joke" millennials could play on them in lieu of "making" most of real estate unaffordable.

That's only if you look at the US as a standalone country.
In reality the whole world is in debt and they know it's real and hard-hitting because they start to make up shit to appease the public. EU Central Bank Chair said that inflation is high because of global warming and war in Ukraine, but forgot to mention how much they printed during Covid.
In the US it was going to shit since W. Bush and Obama multiplied the country's debt. Then Trump had a great idea to lock down the country... Now Biden is sending money to Ukraine while Powell is trying to scare people by rising rates. It's not going to work!

That said, we don't really need the country to go bankrupt for bitcoin to shine. I've read today that in response to BlackRock, HSBC has launched a bitcoin ETF. It starts to feel like a race.

[JimboToronto]

Buckle up, buckaroos.

Coin up, coinaroos.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

OK, what's the FUD this week?

FTX drama all over again. Debtors just recovered 7 billion USD.

Debtors have recovered approximately $7 billion in liquid assets from FTX, according to new court documents.

FTX debtors recover $7B, say investigation has been ‘extraordinarily challenging’

I doubt they have much Bitcoin to sell

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

OK, what's the FUD this week?

FTX drama all over again. Debtors just recovered 7 billion USD.

Debtors have recovered approximately $7 billion in liquid assets from FTX, according to new court documents.

FTX debtors recover $7B, say investigation has been ‘extraordinarily challenging’

I doubt they have much Bitcoin to sell

why not have some btc. if 7 billion was found only 8.5 billion was missing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Wrathofcoins]

Whatever effect brrr has, it takes years if not decades to play out.
With the electorate that cannot put two and two together, the effects are unclear.
Of course, 'hiding' in bitcoin provides some solace.

Gov debt is at 30+ tril, right?
Now, imagine it at 40 tril...basically the "same" thing.
Then, 50 tril....same vibe.
It works until it doesn't....but it is unknowable when that happens.

I can see some situation developing in maybe 10 years, though, as by then the Trust fund for social security would be depleted (google it, projected numbers are from 2032-2034) and boomers would "suddenly" lose 20-24% of their social security payments. That would be a "joke" millennials could play on them in lieu of "making" most of real estate unaffordable.

Well in the end this its the actual stage of capitalism, full consumption.

Owning its forbidden. The WEF said it clearly and loud," you are not gonna own nothing, but you are gonna be happy ". Sounds more like a evangelic church right?

[Gachapin]

OK, what's the FUD this week?

FTX drama all over again. Debtors just recovered 7 billion USD.

Debtors have recovered approximately $7 billion in liquid assets from FTX, according to new court documents.

FTX debtors recover $7B, say investigation has been ‘extraordinarily challenging’

I doubt they have much Bitcoin to sell

why not have some btc. if 7 billion was found only 8.5 billion was missing.

The last thing I remembered was that they had no BTC deposits  ...although customers paid for them.

Now that 7 billion were (coughcough) "found",  they actually might have some BTC.
If so, it depends on the BTC being returned to the creditors or sold:

...FTX is negotiating with stakeholders about options for restarting its crypto exchange...

reuters

For a restart they would have to sell assets, but I doubt they restart.  

[Gachapin]

1)
Trading rule based on S2F model. Buy BTC 6 months before halving and sell 18 month after halving. Outperforms BTC buy&hold in both return and risk....
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1650778260442062848

2)
Quant Investing 101
https://planbtc.com/20220807QuantInvesting101.pdf


But who knows how long we can rely on the previous cycle performance. You never know if next time will be different ....

My rule 0 is someone has a better model than you unless this is something you do full-time and their gain will likely be your loss.

overlooked your comment.

True. Cannot argue with that. One could add that it's not only about the better model but also about the deeper pockets.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

Rant 

Dirty fiat bank "reward":

5% savings account (only balances up to £5000)
"only" costs £5 per month.

So, at most you can "earn" £250 dirty fiat and you have to pay £60 for that privilege.
So basically it's a 3.8% savings account (BOE rate IS 5%).

And I bet most people will look at that think it's cheap, put £2000 on there and wonder why they only get £40 by the end of the year  (effective 2% then).
They will also sucker people in who will only add £500 and even make a profit from them.

Disgusting.

Dirty fiat banks NEVER do anything to YOUR advantage.

[goldkingcoiner]

Can someone explain to me why the ETF fanbois think that fourth time's the charm for a Bitcoin ETF? What exactly will the difference be this time?

[Gachapin]

Can someone explain to me why the ETF fanbois think that fourth time's the charm for a Bitcoin ETF? What exactly will the difference be this time?

Blackrock's success rate of ETF approvals?  ..and their size?

Actually Bitcoiners don't really need an ETF, nocoiner institutions do...

But I guess we could all live with the associated price rise

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[shahzadafzal]

We also have some devoted religious zealots here!



https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1673380889231867924

[Gachapin]