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Question: When will we see a new ATH? (Credit to: Biodom)
2019 - 14 (9.5%)
Early 2020 - 33 (22.4%)
Late 2020 - 44 (29.9%)
Early 2021 - 11 (7.5%)
Late 2021 - 23 (15.6%)
2022 - 3 (2%)
2023 - 0 (0%)
2024 - 4 (2.7%)
After 2024 - 3 (2%)
Never - 12 (8.2%)
Total Voters: 147

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21429249 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (128 posts by 22 users deleted.)
Frozenlock
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May 09, 2013, 11:12:15 PM
 #6601

What's with Bloomberg and bringing skeptical analysts?! We want full fledged pro-Bitcoin folks!  Grin
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May 09, 2013, 11:16:01 PM
 #6602

Talk about no selling pressure. 2k BTC down to $110, and none of that 18k BTC between $113-$120 is interested?

No one is in a rush to buy, no one is in a rush to sell. We've found a price everyone can disagree on. Tongue

everyone wants to buy cheap and sell high, but 110 is not enough cheap buy and 113 isn't sell high Wink

 


I dunno what you are talking about, I personally prefer to buy high sell low - it keeps everyone else happy

I do it sometimes too, but it on the account is missing then:(
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May 09, 2013, 11:17:11 PM
 #6603

This stability is scaring me... Sad

Quiet before the storm. Something bigs gonna happen.
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May 09, 2013, 11:19:05 PM
 #6604

But I was too pessimistic. I still think we can go quite lower short term, but I'm now pretty much convinced that $50 was the real bottom. In my book, thats quite bullish - heck, we where at $14 at the beginning of this year

People seem to be forgetting that you could buy thousands of Bitcoin for $15 each only four months ago.

Are they really worth $113 or more right now ?

Nobody seems to think so or they would not be sitting on the orderbook remaining unsold for days.


Right now, they're worth whatever they are changing hands for. That's about all you can say.
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May 09, 2013, 11:22:04 PM
 #6605

This stability is scaring me... Sad

Quiet before the storm. Something bigs gonna happen.

+1

I'm guessing a continued downtrend, or irrational rally leading to an even bigger crash. Maybe.

Edit: I wouldn't really call this stability though. It's more like a ghost-town.
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May 09, 2013, 11:24:18 PM
 #6606

This stability is scaring me... Sad

Quiet before the storm. Something bigs gonna happen.

+1

I'm guessing a continued downtrend, or irrational rally leading to an even bigger crash. Maybe.

You must be great at parties.

Frozenlock
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May 09, 2013, 11:24:29 PM
 #6607

This stability is scaring me... Sad

Quiet before the storm. Something bigs gonna happen.

+1

I'm guessing a continued downtrend, or irrational rally leading to an even bigger crash. Maybe.

Or monetization?
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May 09, 2013, 11:28:26 PM
 #6608

Can't see much happening before the bitcoin conference, which is only a week away now.
http://www.bitcoin2013.com/


Bitcoin confrences are the most anti-climatic non-news events of the year. Ohhh Gavin tell us why you like Bitcoin. Gavin why do you hate colored coins? 54 satoshi's? Really?

Bitcoin hype coming from the Bitcoin confrence isn't going to move the needle. Gyft news, top VC is backing his first company in two years and it's Coinbase, and everyone goes "zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz". Won't be any news topping those two stories.
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May 09, 2013, 11:29:37 PM
 #6609

Won't be any news topping those two stories.

Inb4 Gavin saying "I was wrong, Bitcoin is doomed to fail!"
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May 09, 2013, 11:30:22 PM
 #6610

But I was too pessimistic. I still think we can go quite lower short term, but I'm now pretty much convinced that $50 was the real bottom. In my book, thats quite bullish - heck, we where at $14 at the beginning of this year

People seem to be forgetting that you could buy thousands of Bitcoin for $15 each only four months ago.

Are they really worth $113 or more right now ?

Nobody seems to think so or they would not be sitting on the orderbook remaining unsold for days.


The market is different from 4 months ago.

Consider 11 million bitcoins. 1 million probably lost, and 75% sitting in wallets rarely moving. This leaves 2.5 million active in the market, the "free float"
Winklevii have absorbed 110k for a long-term investment. Many others have done the same. Assume that 1000 people have recently taken 1000 coins each for long-term holdings as the news frenzy went on. That means the 2.5m free float has been halved. Market dynamics are complex and this could easily mean a stable 8x increase in value.

This will constantly change. When BTC passes $1000 many stale coins from the 75% will wake-up and hit the market. Expect price swings like $1,700 to $700 in a few days. All the newspuppies who called Bitcoin a bubble ponzi will also wake-up and claim they were right. It continues...
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May 09, 2013, 11:32:05 PM
 #6611

Can't see much happening before the bitcoin conference, which is only a week away now.
http://www.bitcoin2013.com/


Bitcoin confrences are the most anti-climatic non-news events of the year. Ohhh Gavin tell us why you like Bitcoin. Gavin why do you hate colored coins? 54 satoshi's? Really?

Bitcoin hype coming from the Bitcoin confrence isn't going to move the needle. Gyft news, top VC is backing his first company in two years and it's Coinbase, and everyone goes "zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz". Won't be any news topping those two stories.

+1
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May 09, 2013, 11:37:35 PM
 #6612

This stability is scaring me... Sad

Quiet before the storm. Something bigs gonna happen.

+1

I'm guessing a continued downtrend, or irrational rally leading to an even bigger crash. Maybe.

You must be great at parties.

http://i.imgur.com/p9XJw.gif

I'm simply trying to remain as rational as possible. I'm no bear, nor bull, I am a dragon; albeit a baby dragon.

Short term, I believe there will be a downtrend. Long term, I definitely believe in an uptrend.

Mid term, now... that's the mystery.

Anything could happen, but to me these are the most logical conclusions.
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May 09, 2013, 11:38:55 PM
 #6613

But I was too pessimistic. I still think we can go quite lower short term, but I'm now pretty much convinced that $50 was the real bottom. In my book, thats quite bullish - heck, we where at $14 at the beginning of this year

People seem to be forgetting that you could buy thousands of Bitcoin for $15 each only four months ago.

Are they really worth $113 or more right now ?

Nobody seems to think so or they would not be sitting on the orderbook remaining unsold for days.


The market is different from 4 months ago.

Consider 11 million bitcoins. 1 million probably lost, and 75% sitting in wallets rarely moving. This leaves 2.5 million active in the market, the "free float"
Winklevii have absorbed 110k for a long-term investment. Many others have done the same. Assume that 1000 people have recently taken 1000 coins each for long-term holdings as the news frenzy went on. That means the 2.5m free float has been halved. Market dynamics are complex and this could easily mean a stable 8x increase in value.

This will constantly change. When BTC passes $1000 many stale coins from the 75% will wake-up and hit the market. Expect price swings like $1,700 to $700 in a few days. All the newspuppies who called Bitcoin a bubble ponzi will also wake-up and claim they were right. It continues...


I give you that the next crash will be brutal. Huge amount of hoarders is waiting for triple digits to dump for good

The slower we climb there, the bigger will be the depth, the better will be the infrastructure, the softer it will be the fall
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May 09, 2013, 11:41:02 PM
 #6614

This stability is scaring me... Sad

Quiet before the storm. Something bigs gonna happen.

+1

I'm guessing a continued downtrend, or irrational rally leading to an even bigger crash. Maybe.

Or monetization?

Problem is I don't really think bitcoins are worth as much as they are now. Even counting hype I'd say $75, and that's very generous considering many of the hyper bears out there.
TiagoTiago
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May 09, 2013, 11:41:48 PM
 #6615

A stable sine wave of about 20USD of amplitude and about 15 minutes of wavelength for a few days would be nice...



The Bitcoin market is more polar.

i.e.



Wolfram Alpha isn't being cooperative, what does that looks like?
Frozenlock
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May 09, 2013, 11:46:12 PM
 #6616

Or monetization?

Problem is I don't really think bitcoins are worth as much as they are now. Even counting hype I'd say 75, and that's very generous considering many of the hyper bears out there.

Hyper-monetization: Questioning the "Bitcoin bubble" bubble

TL;DR: for money, the higher the value, the more interesting it becomes.

Quote
To imagine how different this is from a classic asset bubble, it would be as if not only the price of bubble-era houses were rising, but also that their actual sought-after qualities as houses were improving spontaneously at the same time. Such houses might sprout new rooms with no one building them, with new paint jobs appearing mysteriously overnight without any painters having visited.
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May 09, 2013, 11:48:07 PM
 #6617

I'm amazed the price has been so stable with the DDoS or whatever going on for so long. Volume is really really low.
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May 09, 2013, 11:51:08 PM
 #6618

A stable sine wave of about 20USD of amplitude and about 15 minutes of wavelength for a few days would be nice...



The Bitcoin market is more polar.

i.e.



Wolfram Alpha isn't being cooperative, what does that looks like?
Quote
plot (3*sin(4x^2)^2)^(1/3) from 0 to 3
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May 09, 2013, 11:51:20 PM
 #6619

I give you that the next crash will be brutal. Huge amount of hoarders is waiting for triple digits to dump for good

The slower we climb there, the bigger will be the depth, the better will be the infrastructure, the softer it will be the fall

I think the opposite. You can now use Bitcoins at more and more places. I REALLY missed not being able to convert BTC directly to amazon giftcards. We've been through crashes.

If you bought at $105 when it crashed from $266, you're up.
If you bought at $50 you're WAY up.
If you bought at $79 when it crashed you're up a lot.
If you bought at $98 a few days ago you're up.

If it ever gets close to $50 again, there will be a line of people waiting to buy every single Bitcoin people want to sell. Lots of people doubled their money. Notice how quickly we bounce back from coin dumps now? When we went to 98, day traders bought every coin in sight. We were sub $100 for a new york minute. All those people who bought from 98-110, tossed it right up on the ask side from 110-120. People see a crash as easy money now. Because it has been.

If it crashes, people will see it as a value play. There's lots and lots of people who will invest long on Bitcoin, and give them a chance to buy more at $40-$60-$80 they'll do that all day long.

I'm not worried about the next crash, I can't wait for it.
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May 09, 2013, 11:51:32 PM
 #6620

I'm amazed the price has been so stable with the DDoS or whatever going on for so long. Volume is really really low.

I'm amazed at the number of bitcoiners who believe a stable price with volume this low is a good thing in an almost purely speculative market.
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