Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Remember the guy who said that bitcoin would be 84K on March 14 (he said it on Nov 26)?
Spookily, it happened.

In the same verse, he hinted at a 444K peak.

What's going on?
Are we in a 'controlled' universe where everything already happened or, pehaps, pre-programmed?
I don't really think so, but this gives me strange vibes:

https://youtu.be/2HRBJCp9XkI?t=21

Musk said something along the line a day or two ago, but not many people noticed:

https://youtu.be/CkManNuuYog?t=3320

This sounded truly "weird".

Concevons qu’on ait dressé un million de singes à frapper au hasard sur les touches d’une machine à écrire...

Emile Borel

edit: added the attribution for the quote

million monkeys would produce nothing as far as an intelligent text is concerned, but maybe milllion milllion million million.... monkeys could 'produce' something meaningful.
To be exact:

Ignoring punctuation, spacing, and capitalization, a monkey typing letters uniformly at random has a chance of one in 26 of correctly typing the first letter of Hamlet. It has a chance of one in 676 (26 × 26) of typing the first two letters. Because the probability shrinks exponentially, at 20 letters it already has only a chance of one in 2620 = 19,928,148,895,209,409,152,340,197,376[d] (almost 2 × 1028). In the case of the entire text of Hamlet, the probabilities are so vanishingly small as to be inconceivable. The text of Hamlet contains approximately 130,000 letters.[e] Thus, there is a probability of one in 3.4 × 10183,946 to get the text right at the first trial. The average number of letters that needs to be typed until the text appears is also 3.4 × 10183,946,[f] or including punctuation, 4.4 × 10360,783.[g]

Even if every proton in the observable universe (which is estimated at roughly 10^80) were a monkey with a typewriter, typing from the Big Bang until the end of the universe (when protons might no longer exist), they would still need a far greater amount of time – more than three hundred and sixty thousand orders of magnitude longer – to have even a 1 in 10^500 chance of success. To put it another way, for a one in a trillion chance of success, there would need to be 10360,641 observable universes made of protonic monkeys.

Hence, it is very unlikely...
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem

  You're taking it too literally.   We get all sorts of predictions for the price bitcoin will be in a given time frame - some of them are correct.   We discount the incorrect and focus on the correct so we essentially validate those individuals' skills and perceive success when in reality it's more likely a lucky monkey imo.

it could be..for example, is W. Buffett a skilled investor or is it a confirmation bias?
It could be either way, but I choose to put more credence to skill (or some strange perception) than to a random chance.
Was it a random chance that some of us were earlier than others in the bitcoin game?

Maybe 30% chance, 70% 'skill'?
By 'skill' is this case I mean mostly certain beliefs, openness to new ideas with a bit of "oppositional" thinking, perhaps...at least during 2010-2016.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Remember the guy who said that bitcoin would be 84K on March 14 (he said it on Nov 26)?
Spookily, it happened.

In the same verse, he hinted at a 444K peak.

What's going on?
Are we in a 'controlled' universe where everything already happened or, pehaps, pre-programmed?
I don't really think so, but this gives me strange vibes:

https://youtu.be/2HRBJCp9XkI?t=21

Musk said something along the line a day or two ago, but not many people noticed:

https://youtu.be/CkManNuuYog?t=3320

This sounded truly "weird".

Concevons qu’on ait dressé un million de singes à frapper au hasard sur les touches d’une machine à écrire...

Emile Borel

edit: added the attribution for the quote

million monkeys would produce nothing as far as an intelligent text is concerned, but maybe milllion milllion million million.... monkeys could 'produce' something meaningful.
To be exact:

Ignoring punctuation, spacing, and capitalization, a monkey typing letters uniformly at random has a chance of one in 26 of correctly typing the first letter of Hamlet. It has a chance of one in 676 (26 × 26) of typing the first two letters. Because the probability shrinks exponentially, at 20 letters it already has only a chance of one in 2620 = 19,928,148,895,209,409,152,340,197,376[d] (almost 2 × 1028). In the case of the entire text of Hamlet, the probabilities are so vanishingly small as to be inconceivable. The text of Hamlet contains approximately 130,000 letters.[e] Thus, there is a probability of one in 3.4 × 10183,946 to get the text right at the first trial. The average number of letters that needs to be typed until the text appears is also 3.4 × 10183,946,[f] or including punctuation, 4.4 × 10360,783.[g]

Even if every proton in the observable universe (which is estimated at roughly 10^80) were a monkey with a typewriter, typing from the Big Bang until the end of the universe (when protons might no longer exist), they would still need a far greater amount of time – more than three hundred and sixty thousand orders of magnitude longer – to have even a 1 in 10^500 chance of success. To put it another way, for a one in a trillion chance of success, there would need to be 10360,641 observable universes made of protonic monkeys.

Hence, it is very unlikely...
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem

  You're taking it too literally.   We get all sorts of predictions for the price bitcoin will be in a given time frame - some of them are correct.   We discount the incorrect and focus on the correct so we essentially validate those individuals' skills and perceive success when in reality it's more likely a lucky monkey imo.

it could be..for example, is W. Buffett a skilled investor or is it a confirmation bias?
It could be either way, but I choose to put more credence to skill (or some strange perception) than to a random chance.
Was it a random chance that some of us were earlier than others in the bitcoin game?

Maybe 30% chance, 70% 'skill'?
By 'skill' is this case I mean mostly certain beliefs, openness to new ideas with a bit of "oppositional" thinking, perhaps...at least during 2010-2016.

 Sure, if my mom accurately predicts bitcoin price on some future date, it would be pure luck or more likely pure coincidence but someone who actually follows the price should have an advantage given they know the current price and might be able to predict future interest or disinterest by assigning it to other events.  I watched the first video though and that guy is making drama about the prediction:

We all know that price predictions are crazy—they're almost never right, except for when they become a prophecy. This is going to sound absolutely crazy because it is, but something just happened in the Bitcoin space that no one can explain at all.  It all started thanks to this guy Josh Mandel, who back in November 2024, when Bitcoin was $74,000, predicted that on March 14th—a day known as Pi Day—Bitcoin would reach exactly $84,000 to the dollar.

 That's just misleading rhetoric playing on emotions.   There's nothing crazy about a price prediction, it didn't become prophecy and he didn't predict "exactly" $84,000 "to the dollar" either.  It's hyperbolic and designed to get clicks.  I don't believe it indicates we are in some "controlled" universe.   I don't even know what Musk is on about in the video you linked either but that guy is weird so maybe in his world, irony abounds.  The most likely outcome doesn't corelate with entertainment value and he fucking knows this - he's just trying to be more likeable.  He'll be surfing with Zuckerberg next and I predict that will happen on May the 4th because... entertainment value.

[JimboToronto]

We don't need monkeys
To generate a haiku...
One Wall Observer.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

What value do you want bitcoin to reach?, what your the reason !?.
For example, i want it to reach 100 k $ in 5 days so i could buy a gift with my profit.

Bitcoin is likely best to be considered as a long term - rather than a short term investment. 

If you are thinking long term, you still might have to spend a whole cycle accumulating bitcoin, and then a second cycle HODLing (and receiving compounding value) and then maybe in your third cycle you might be able to begin sustainable withdrawal, so long as you had been aggressively accumulating (without selling) in your first one or two cycles.

Your ideas about 15% to 20% profits come off as quite inadequate.  There are many guys here who are sitting on 10x to 80x profits and even more and are not necessarily in a rush to cash out of their coins.. even though surely guys sometimes will take some profits along the way, so I am not going to completely bash you for those kinds of ideas, even though $100k seems a bit ant-ish, especially if you have not been around at least a whole  cycle.

By the way, even guys who had been accumulating bitcoin for a whole cycle, they still maybe be in the ballpark of 2x to 3x profits right now.. which means costs per BTC in the territory of $30k to $50k, so I doubt those guys are necessarily rushing to take profits.. even though there might be more justification to potentially shave off BTC from time to time if your costs per BTC might be below $20k - and even better if below $10k...

But at the same time, cost per BTC is not the ONLY calculation, since there is a certain value in regards to achieving a certain quantity of BTC, whether that entry-level fuck you status might be considered to be around 17.77 BTC or some other quantity that a guy might start to consider that he has entered into his own assessment of fuck you status.

I want Bitcoin to reach 1 K so that I can buy a ridiculous amount of Bitcoin before it goes to 100K again.

If bitcoin goes that low that just signify that a big flaw was found in its protocol.
Oh Boy.

Going below $30k may well be problematic, depending on the circumstances.

I am thinking tentatively that the BTC price is never going below $55k again.. yet I always have difficulties in regards to overly building up conviction in these kinds of "never again" statements.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[nutildah]

Breaking the Buddy... Talkin bout the Charty Buddy y'all

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Mahiyammahi]

I am thinking tentatively that the BTC price is never going below $55k again.. yet I always have difficulties in regards to overly building up conviction in these kinds of "never again" statements.

From 2021 last bear market when BTC touched as low as $15k level till now 2025 the inflation & purchasing powers of US dollar decreased almost 40-50% . If we calculated it by US M2 supply we likely won't go below $30k level.

More people nowadays accepting and adopting Bitcoin also government ,industries all the broadly accepting crypto. It's definitely won't go below $50k.

Bitcoin has the potential to raise 100x from here. So I'm voting big No

[El duderino_]

We don't need monkeys
To generate a haiku...
One Wall Observer.

A lot of monkeys
We need to buy them bitcoins
We want hundred K

[Gachapin]

sorry if one of you posted this already (lagging behind a few pages), but the white paper is now hanging on the wall of the White House...

of all simulations this is not the worst, I'd say as a Bitcoiner


https://www.instagram.com/blockchainvenezuela/reel/DHg8qVrRRvb/

[Krubster]

OT: I am off to the DataCenter where some of my servers are living, gotta replace some ageing SSD and SAS Drives.... Last time i was here, i made the decision it is time to call it a day!.. The stress and anxiety was not worth it anymore... or is it?...

Anyhow, wish me luck, hopefully it will be a more pleasant experience.... or maybe I'll have some fun and just unplug a some servers that belongs to Google... 

Speaking of aging SSD's. That's the task of the weekend. goblin-no.de need a new ssd.

Just come across an issue with my LN Node... Can not upgrade bitcoin core to the latest... Binary will not run on CentOS Stream release 8... need to compile from source!.. Bloody annoying!

I am thinking of splitting the box... One for lnd (2x2TB SSD Enterprise) and another for bitcoind (Single SSD Drive - maybe 2TB or 3TB)(current growth, the drive should fail first)

I've taken the route of trying to make the Node somewhat profitable... got the inspiration from you!.. your 680,000Sat monthly profit was amazing! Although i haven't opted for onchain opening and closing to balance channels, everything has all been done via lightning...

Started working on some new tools to automate the channel management... (I needed a better overview of what is happening with the routing, in real time and change channel fees and monitor and compare that impact of fee changes over the last few weeks and move up or down if needed, try to find the sweet spot and maximize the channel)

I also lost some fairly large channels recently.... over 1.2BTC closed from LNBig (Not that there was much traffic from them)... LNNode dropped down to 10.5BTC... Not sure if i want to throw anymore SATS at it just yet...

How's goblin-no.de tracking?

My node is humming along nicely. The profitability is back to more normal levels. Last month profits was 170k sats.

December month was out of the ordinary. For some reason my channel with fixedfloat.com kept routing out at ~5000 sats ppm (more than twice than my 2nd most expensive channel LOOP) while I was able to rebalance it for ~3000 ppm. It was like an infinite money glitch.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

Remember the guy who said that bitcoin would be 84K on March 14 (he said it on Nov 26)?
Spookily, it happened.

In the same verse, he hinted at a 444K peak.

What's going on?
Are we in a 'controlled' universe where everything already happened or, perhaps, pre-programmed?

pffft  armatures

this is king of predictors.. and its one of our own:

On May 4th 2019 the price will be $5715.

I will be 48kg heavier and will have regrown my virginity. I will also have a limp, skin tags and Donald Trump will the president of the USA.