I am thinking tentatively that the BTC price is never going below $55k again.. yet I always have difficulties in regards to overly building up conviction in these kinds of "never again" statements.
From 2021 last bear market when BTC touched as low as $15k level till now 2025 the inflation & purchasing powers of US dollar decreased almost 40-50% . If we calculated it by US M2 supply we likely won't go below $30k level.
More people nowadays accepting and adopting Bitcoin also government ,industries all the broadly accepting crypto. It's definitely won't go below $50k.
I probably don't have strong conviction in regards to my own statement, even though I think that my statement might be strong enough for a 50/50 bet.
For my guidance, I am going by the 200-WMA, and to me it seems that largely during bull markets, the BTC price does not go below 25% above the 200-WMA, and during bear markets the BTC price might touch the 200-WMA and hover around the 200-WMA (mostly above it) for decently long periods of time, even several months.
Of course, between June-2022-ish and October 2023, we had a more severe case in which the BTC spot price got below the 200-WMA and spent a lot of time below the 200-WMA during those 16-ish months, and BTC's spot price even got as low as 35% below the 200-WMA, and so that was a bit more serious than usual.
Right now the 200-WMA is $45k, so 25% above that would be $56k-ish.
From time to time, I have to adjust my future projections of the 200-WMA, and I consider my 200-WMA projections to be relatively conservative, but still sometimes I still do have to adjust them further downward based on actual performance rather than projected performance.
Right now my current projections of the 200-WMA shows it to be right around $67k in the middle of 2026, so I am still thinking that I am safe with $55k since that would be 18% below my anticipated mid-2026 200-WMA.... although $50k would be safer as a bet since that would be 25% below the 200-WMA, yet I still consider those kinds of low prices to be extremes rather than reasonably plausible scenarios that I would consider to be bettable.
For sure, in my own perspective, I would prefer that the BTC price shoots up to somewhere between $250k and $400k in the coming 12-months, yet surely it becomes difficult to have those kinds of expectations, since they surely don't seem to be greater than 50/50, even though many of us recognize and appreciate bitcoin as an asymmetric bet to the upside that continues to have a lot of great upside potentialities, even if such upside potentialities might not play out in the timeline that we might be hoping to happen.
It seems to me that bitcoin has already been an asset class that has continued to damage the bitcoin naysayers and the fence sitters, and surely some of those folks need to take action rather than sitting on the sidelines, yet they continue to suffer damage from their ongoing failures/refusals to either get started in bitcoin and/or to sufficiently/adequately prepare their own finances for the possibility of up.. which a lot of up has continued to happen and happen and happen, and there is no real evidence that bitcoin's investment thesis is getting weaker or that the UPs (and the damage to the upside) are not going to continue to happen to the low coiners and no coiners.
Bitcoin has the potential to raise 100x from here. So I'm voting big No
Of course there are questions regarding top for this cycle and overall top, which surely the overall top could take 50-200 years to play out, even though probably we would not argue bitcoin to really have any kind of a concrete top, instead of some kind of a top that relates to overall value of some kind of a world-reserve-currency, or something like that in which currently such addressable market is close to 1 quadrillion dollars, and currently bitcoin is only 1/500th of that.. even though likely with the passage of time, it seems likely that the addressable market will continue to grow, too, especially if we might consider that bitcoin might be able to create value that currently we do not have or know about, just like the invention (discovery) in regards to how to harness electricity had ended up creating uses that were many decades after the first widespread uses of electricity.
Another thing regarding actual measurement is that you are wanting to measure 100x from here, which does not seem likely in this cycle and perhaps even if we were to project 4-6 years into the future it might be a bit of a stretch to expect 100x from here, which would be like $8.5 million bitcoin, which sure is on the table, but I doubt that it is realistic to be considering those kinds of prices within less than 2 cycles from here... but yeah, sure there is a chance of reaching such prices sooner, but it seems pretty slim to me, such as less than 2%-ish.. give or take 0.313495295% or so..
That is a pretty ironic set of events. It is difficult to know what Trump believes, yet he likely recognizes and appreciates some shock value that goes along with such an endorsement.
Remember the guy who said that bitcoin would be 84K on March 14 (he said it on Nov 26)?
Spookily, it happened.
In the same verse, he hinted at a 444K peak.
What's going on?
Are we in a 'controlled' universe where everything already happened or, perhaps, pre-programmed?
pffft armatures
this is king of predictors.. and its one of our own:
On May 4th 2019 the price will be $5715.
I will be 48kg heavier and will have regrown my virginity. I will also have a limp, skin tags and Donald Trump will the president of the USA.
Wow!!! For some reason, I don't recall that prediction.
Perhaps depending on what time of the day, too..Itching to mindrust.
Not me, but I feel some are.
Sideways meat grinder!
I am wondering, since we know that there are not too many events that would be similar to March 2020.. perhaps a quick drop to the mid-$60ks would get some mindrusters, yet I am very doubtful about the chances of anyone actually admitting and/or arguing the case for selling like mindrust did, and he continues arguing to this day in a kind of rationalization of his decision.
Recently, I had a bit of a back and forth argument with him regarding ideas of diversification, reallocation and just allowing winners, such as bitcoin to ride, and without going over exact past facts of his case, I go the sense that he remains stubborn and even in a bit of denial, which likely is part of the reason that he does not come back to this thread... and sure, none of us are going to want to interact in areas in which we have fundamental differences of opinion... ..
but yeah, my punchline point would be that a drop into the mid-$60s might get some mindrusters.. and even though some consider our current prices to be a wee bit depressing, I am thinking that they are likely not quite low enough for a mindrusting.
Opportunities.
Better use them while you can.
Very few will come!
Even though we see so many folks hoarding bitcoin, and even governments (such as the USA - Trump), institutions (such as blackrock and Saylor) and even some influential individuals pumping the bitcoin narrative and even seeming to go into their own bitcoin hoarding practices, an overwhelming quantity of retail seem to NOT get it, so surely we are still early, which seems surprising to many of us longer term bitcoiners.. so we can still be amazed about our own level of enjoying our own advantages in the asymmetric information arena.
I don't have no time,
For no damned monkey business.
I just buy Bitcoin!
Yeah. Don't get distracted by the
noise monkeys.
It's been long since I saw Bitcoin rise because of been
Well Bitcoin
Even if folks (Trump or whoever) are proclaiming credit or might be trying to manipulate bitcoin in one direction or another, I doubt that their efforts make great differences, even though surely it feels much better to have some potentials of a less hostile environment as contrasted with a more hostile environment.
Bitcoin will survive and have its pumps either way, yet surely some of the direct custody and abilities to transact without being traced continue to be challenging areas for any of us trying to figure out our own ways of managing and/or potentially spending our BTC holdings.
Poll
