Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BTCETFInvestor]

Early Bitcoin Whale Shorted $1.1B Right Before Tariffs, Now Up $27M – How Did He Know?

A Satoshi-era Bitcoin whale opened over $1.1 billion in short positions against BTC and ETH just before President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, generating an estimated $27 million in unrealized profits as markets crashed.

The trader, identified by blockchain tracking firm as a “Bitcoin OG” who held 86,000 BTC from 2011, deposited funds into Hyperliquid starting October 9 to establish highly leveraged bets against the crypto market’s top two assets.

As the market drops, this ‘s $1.1B+ short positions in and are now sitting on an unrealized profit of over $27M.Did he have insider information? — Lookonchain (@lookonchain) Whale Doubles Down 30 Minutes Before Trump Speech

The whale’s positions include a 10x leveraged short on 6,189 BTC valued at $752.9 million with a liquidation price of $130,810, and a 12x leveraged short on 81,203 ETH worth $353.1 million with a liquidation price of $4,589.

The timing sparked widespread speculation about insider knowledge, with the trader doubling down on shorts just 30 minutes before Trump’s tariff announcement that sent Bitcoin plunging from above $122,000 to briefly below $102,000.

► https://www.tradingview.com/news/cryptonews:4c6d1252f094b:0-early-bitcoin-whale-shorted-1-1b-right-before-tariffs-now-up-27m-how-did-he-know/

Maybe he just assumed that TACO (Trump always chickens out) would make just such a move. This is not at all illogical if we know that this is a man who reacts very impulsively and often thoughtlessly. China has a very big advantage here, considering that without their rare earth materials and magnets, the entire world could face serious problems.

Absolute best POTUS and administration in modern history!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Nice recovery starting to take shape!

[Yamifoud]

Nobel Peace Prize 2025 goes to María Corina Machado - the Venezuelan leader who once called Bitcoin “resistance money”

https://apnews.com/article/nobel-peace-prize-oslo-41b6bff88e2d57af0917bcf778e132ad

[OutOfMemory]

This is excellente and I like your craft to have pulled this out of the tin air.

Tin air?



i have some spare time
only for a quick haiku
don't expect too much

the market tanking
traders call it suicide
we call it a dip

cooking a remix
can't afford too much time off
keep the flow flowing

#haiku

[promise444c5]

X

Was about to post the same thing. I saw it this morning too
Hopefully it looks like it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

X

It may be, but there are some differences:

1. We are at least one month deeper into the bull run at a point where it could be over, theoretically. I don't believe that it is over, personally.

2. The "event" showed that there is not much liquidity in the market. At first, when I looked at just bitcoin, I thought that it was just a garden variety dip, but later, it seemed that non-bitcoin market was absolutely devastated with declines between 60 and 90%. Defi seemed to be much affected. Uniswap went to $2 or something like that. On one of the markets for leverage trading 10 "whales" with >30mil $$ positions for each were completely wiped out. Overall liquidation losses exceeded $19bil while during COVID crash, liquidation losses were "just" $1.5bil.

3. It showed that you can expect gigantic market moving news from this admin (it already happened twice in the last 6-7mo) with a possibility for a large scale sudden trades, which, unfortunately, would place a further discount on the market.

I am hodling everything, but would not entertain leverage, apart from a small position in DATs like MSTR.

[SPIDERMAN008]

X

The main point of Bitcoin is deflationary monetary policy where every 4 years, Bitcoin reward is halved in halving. Supply decreases and demand increases, price increases. As a result, human psychology repeats itself.
after every halving First, disbelief, the price is increasing but no one thinks it is safe.
Then, hope, where many people start buying Bitcoin.
Then, greed, they start buying more and the price increases as leverage comes.
Finally, euphoria, maximum holders start thinking that there will be a new ATH and increase accumulation and BTC value rises to the top.

Due to this same psychology cycle, may be the same pattern has been observed in this year like 2017 .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Dictator69]

I might not be a good person to measure against.. and gold is not dumping seems like a big so what? 

Hopefully none of us are buying much if any gold, or getting distracted by it.

Mostly, I have not been injecting new cash into bitcoin since early 2017 -

I think last time on another thread you told me how much btc you have, they were not even 1 BTC. Correct me if I am wrong and sorry if I talk about something in here that I shouldn't have.

As if you have stopped buying since early 2017 don't you think it's a bit biased to tell others to keep buying and dcaing and not trading, but holding, I am not laying fingers, just a question out of curiosity.

I do respect your povs though because we must keep holdings our bags as you have helped me understand one thing that long term conviction usually wins, timing rarely does.

[WatChe]

Weekend is over and market is going up. That panic was just for weekend?

114k right now.

[MrNata]

R.I.P.

Diane Keaton


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diane_Keaton

The news of Diane Keaton's death has touched my heart, she was one of my favorite actresses. I came to know about her acting through the movie Annie Hall and she did a great job in that movie and she was given an Oscar for her performance in that movie. Apart from the Oscar for this movie, she won many other National Film Awards for her acting.
We will miss her very much.

[BitHodlers]

1. We are at least one month deeper into the bull run at a point where it could be over, theoretically. I don't believe that it is over, personally.

Not that important because the cycles are not identical to the day.

2. The "event" showed that there is not much liquidity in the market. At first, when I looked at just bitcoin, I though that it was just a garden variety dip, but later, it seemed that non-bitcoin market was absolutely devastated with declines between 60 and 90%. Defi seemed to be much affected. Uniswap went to $2 or something like that. On one of the markets for leverage trading 10 "whales" with >30mil $$ positions for each were completely wiped out. Overall liquidation losses exceeded $19bil while during COVID crash, liquidation losses were "just" $1.5bil.

The liquidity is on the sidelines mostly in stablecoins and retail is too poor this time and is not around. Further, many coins now have liquid staking and borrow and lending protocols. This was not true before. These create a catastrophic intensification of the liquidations. Once people reach liquidation thresholds the protocols start dumping positions automatically and this makes the whole panic worse. This again leads to more liquidations and it repeats itself massively in a short time frame.

This is why we have Bitcoin and the rest are shitcoins.

The main point of Bitcoin is deflationary monetary policy where every 4 years, Bitcoin reward is halved in halving. Supply decreases and demand increases, price increases. As a result, human psychology repeats itself.
after every halving First, disbelief, the price is increasing but no one thinks it is safe..

While it does have some benefit the newly generated supply is so low that it is irrelevant to the market. This is not what drives the price up. The massive money printing of fiat is what drives it up. Bitcoin is the only decentralized and fixed-supply currency and asset in the world. There is nothing like it and there never will be. 450 coins per day is nothing compared to a circulating supply of 20 million.

[Hueristic]

I might not be a good person to measure against.. and gold is not dumping seems like a big so what? 

Hopefully none of us are buying much if any gold, or getting distracted by it.

Mostly, I have not been injecting new cash into bitcoin since early 2017 -

I think last time on another thread you told me how much btc you have, they were not even 1 BTC. Correct me if I am wrong and sorry if I talk about something in here that I shouldn't have.

As if you have stopped buying since early 2017 don't you think it's a bit biased to tell others to keep buying and dcaing and not trading, but holding, I am not laying fingers, just a question out of curiosity.

I do respect your povs though because we must keep holdings our bags as you have helped me understand one thing that long term conviction usually wins, timing rarely does.

He lost it all in a boating accident, you need to keep up.

*or maybe go back a few years.

[vapourminer]

He lost it all in a boating accident, you need to keep up.

go back a few years

go back a few years..
let me tell you a story
about JJG..

[BTCETFInvestor]

I might not be a good person to measure against.. and gold is not dumping seems like a big so what?  

Hopefully none of us are buying much if any gold, or getting distracted by it.

Mostly, I have not been injecting new cash into bitcoin since early 2017 -

I think last time on another thread you told me how much btc you have, they were not even 1 BTC. Correct me if I am wrong and sorry if I talk about something in here that I shouldn't have.

As if you have stopped buying since early 2017 don't you think it's a bit biased to tell others to keep buying and dcaing and not trading, but holding, I am not laying fingers, just a question out of curiosity.

I do respect your povs though because we must keep holdings our bags as you have helped me understand one thing that long term conviction usually wins, timing rarely does.

He lost it all in a boating accident, you need to keep up.

*or maybe go back a few years.

He lost it all in a boating accident, you need to keep up.

go back a few years

go back a few years..
let me tell you a story
about JJG..

Confusing! Who lost it all in a boating accident?  

[Franklyn-wood]

X

Was about to post the same thing. I saw it this morning too
Hopefully it looks like it.

The market moves in a similar way and that is the reason why traders are using the previous market movement to check how the future price is gonna move and react to price. Once you understand the market behaviors you will be surprised that Bitcoin has virtually similar patterns and movement. Although this pattern should not be seen as the priority in speculating the future price.
We still have more bullish candles to count before any diversion or change in trend.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Weekend is over and market is going up. That panic was just for weekend?

114k right now.

Trump softened his stance, pulled a bit of a TACO.



Price looks a little better but we are still $12,000 down from the ATH. Hoping we eat some of that up in the coming week. Would be great to get back to $120,000 quickly.

[philipma1957]

I might not be a good person to measure against.. and gold is not dumping seems like a big so what? 

Hopefully none of us are buying much if any gold, or getting distracted by it.

Mostly, I have not been injecting new cash into bitcoin since early 2017 -

I think last time on another thread you told me how much btc you have, they were not even 1 BTC. Correct me if I am wrong and sorry if I talk about something in here that I shouldn't have.

As if you have stopped buying since early 2017 don't you think it's a bit biased to tell others to keep buying and dcaing and not trading, but holding, I am not laying fingers, just a question out of curiosity.

I do respect your povs though because we must keep holdings our bags as you have helped me understand one thing that long term conviction usually wins, timing rarely does.

his claim of owning 0.63 btc is very likely an understatement.

hell i own more than that.