I’ll buy some back if we enter a deep, depressing bear market but I just expected a lot better this year, you know.
I have accepted diminishing returns as adoption increases. That’s to be expected, we are not at a $100M market-cap any more. This year has been particularly disappointing though.
Bitcoin retired me before age 40. I am so grateful for how life turned out for me. Would I see Bitcoin as the best asset to invest in right now, if I was a newbie with <1BTC? I have to be honest, my answer is a strong no.
So personally, I am still heavily in Bitcoin, most of my net worth is in it. I would be looking elsewhere if I was a young guy without any Bitcoin though.
That is a big call but I can't blame you for saying it. Gold has been smashing Bitcoin for sometime now, stocks too, and it doesn't seem like that is changing.
Are people selling Bitcoin for gold, probably. One thing is certain though, nations are buying gold, not Bitcoin. I have gold but like you I am mostly in Bitcoin, I should probably be upping my gold and lowering my Bitcoin allocation.
A brand new person to investing would be retarded to invest in gold rather than bitcoin... but hey fantasize as you like.
Bitcoin is still in the ballpark of 1,000x or more better than gold, yet it is only about 1/9th the price.
It might take a bit of time for the market to work out these pricing matters, yet we should understand the trend, instead of getting distracted by current blips... but yeah, of course, do what you like. Even things that are not so smart...
By the way, a brand new person to investing should invest no more than 10% the size of his bitcoin size into gold, and that might even be too much, but yeah of course, each of us can choose our allocations and see how things play out.
You have to remember that LFC has more than 10 years in bitcoin, and he likely did most of his BTC accumulation in the first cycle and perhaps bleeding a bit into his second cycle that also involved his spoiling himself by selling and then buying back cheaper..
The idea of selling his Bitcoin too early is not good enough and I don't see that as true hodler if the goal is to be buying an selling when the price of Bitcoin goes down. Those that are true holders do not panic when price go down and when price up up since the goal is to hold for a certain period of time which being bothered on what next happens in the market.
So he does not really consider himself an accumulator anymore except buying on dips, even though maybe it would do him some good to go back to his roots, and buy some on the dip, rather than whining about them.. but at the same time, he may have lost his way, too.
When a holder considered buying the dip has a way to make money from the market, they should always have another though about that because people are doing so many things to help themselves but the idea is not good enough. Buying the dip is cool but taking that as a habit is frankly seen as too weak approach to the holding sense.
For sure, with beginners, anyone in their first whole bitcoin cycle, they should not get distracted by what longer term bitcoiners are doing, since they likely need to just concentrate on buying for at least a whole cycle, and perhaps even a couple of cycles before they might start get to the point of having enough or more than enough bitcoin, which is quite likely LFC's current status.. (or at least how he thinks about his current status related to bitcoin, even though he is proclaiming disappointment, which many of us longer term bitcoins are likely somewhat bothered by his saying those kinds of things - even though sure, he has a right to say what he likes and feel what he feels.
The concentration should be on buying and accumulate and the idea of the old Bitcoiners selling part of their holdings should not be a distraction. It only takes those that understand the market to stay firm and turn a deaf hear to all the noises in the market by whales and big portfolios talking about taking profits.
You are not necessarily wrong in anything you say, and guys can choose how to allocate and/or how to reallocate. LFC is complaining about bitcoins performance, but he is not really selling it and he even said that he would plan to buy more if it dips a lot, so he is mostly complaining without rage quitting (at least not so far).
He probably is also wrong about better investments out there, even though surely anyone who is just getting started investing can figure out his allocation into bitcoin as compared to any other assets that he might consider as sufficient competitors to bitcoin. .and some folks consider diversifying, yet personally, I think that it may well be better to start out just with bitcoin and cash and then perhaps after building the bitcoin portion to a certain level (such as a year of expenses) then maybe at that point diversifying might make sense, but yeah, everyone can figure out these kinds of allocation priorities.. and the extent to which they even have a lot of money (discretionary income) to diversify (dilute) into other assets rather than focusing until their wealth is built up to a certain extent prior to diversifying.
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