JJG - I don't know why the nice and considerate good people here put up with your shit...
because he has manners
Depending on context, stupidity and bad manners might be "good" characteristics.
At the same time, I wonder about your ingenius picture searching and artistic skills since that pic kind of looks like me too, and if the pic does not look like me at this particular moment, it represents how I feel, and feelings are important, as you likely realize.
Feeling a bit down today. Not because of the price, just generally.
Dats what I am talking about!!!!
Feelings.
Nothing more than feelings.
I should write a song on the topic.
Or better yet, where's @sirazimuth when "we" need him? And, we will have Marcus review the end melodious product.
A bit tired to go out tonight (too much exercise yesterday, body aching). So I thought of crunching some more numbers. Latest Bitstamp day historical data, starting from 17 December 2017 (the dramatic post-fork ATH) up until 7 November 2025 (yesterday). I plotted the spot price throughout that period (almost 8 years), and marked all ATHs with orange circles, and an orange line showing how long each ATH lasted. I then plotted the difference between the spot price and the ATH preceding it (bottom, red graph). This shows the inter-ATH dips that have occurred throughout the 8-year period.
Now, the question is: will there be another BIG and LONG dip starting in 2026, like the one shown in the red graph, which starts in 2022 and ends in mid-2024? The years fit (2022 + 4 = 2026).
I will concede that from time to time, there can be value in regards to focusing on short periods, especially in what you are seeming to be intending to focus on recent history with a kind of underlying presumption that recent history is more important (since bitcoin is maturing as an asset class so then newer dynamics are likely more important than some of the dynamics that might not have had been present in earlier times), yet it seems that your overall points are probably not hurt by adding the earlier cycles - perhaps even potentially allowing for cutting off of the data prior to 2013 or something like that... bitcoin is ongoingly growing and adding more and more new players as various aspects of its network effects
(the network effects outlined by Trace Mayer) continue to grow.
If this happens, then LFC_Bitcoin is right and we'll soon be entering into another BIG and LONG dip, which could last until mid-2028, after the next halving. History often repeats itself, but Bitcoin is so predictably unpredictable that anything can happen.
You seem to be arguing that we should be taking history with a pretty BIG ass grain of salt, even though history can provide some parameter guidelines for us to consider in regards to what is within the realm of possible - which truly seems to be problematic in regards to rigidity in thinking that bitcoin has to do something (such as crash) within a certain timeline..
We can say that 4 year cycles exist and don't exist at the same time.. I know guys want to get worked up about whether or not the 4-year cycle pattern is going to disappear or that we have to follow such cycle with precision.
Almost no matter what, we are not going to have enough information, until after the fact.. after the market actually crashes (versus a mere temporary correction) we might be able to say after the fact that the market crashed because x, y or z where right now x, y and/or z are not really known in terms of their specifics.. they are merely inferred in a general kind of way.. and so far we have seen that generally some kind of a blow off top has had to have had taken place in order for a correction to be justified, but then when the 2021 blow off top ended up being a way smaller version than expected, then we looked at the data and noticed the level of depravity, degenerate gambling, leverage, rehypothication that was going on, and then we realized that maybe the top could not have had gone any further without some of that froth being flushed out of the system..
And, so right now, we might not really know the level of leverage in the system - yet surely it is quite likely that even the market does not necessarily resolve all injustices, since it is probably the case that sometimes the degenerates end up winning with their gambling plays and they do not end up getting flushed out within this particular part of the market cycle. .or in this particular wave.. There are likely examples in history where undeserving people and undeserving technologies end up prevailing due to how matters played out.. not that I am suggesting that even bitcoin itself is any of those things - since bitcoin is protocol layer and then we have a lot of players betting on top of it and through it.
Also, in 2022-2024 we still had the COVID situation, and the Israel attacks, and other political events. Whatever happens, I'll be HoDLing for sure.
There is always all kinds of shit going on, and any of the individual items could end up weighing more than another in order to push the BTC price in one direction or another.. and overall, many of us likely recognize (or is it believe) that bitcoin fixes a lot of things, so that bitcoin ends up being a solution for so many things, even though in the short term, some of those happenings might be having negative effects on the bitcoin price - such as shrinkage in liquidity or even overall negative macro happenings.. It can be difficult for bitcoin to thrive if everything else (or many things) seem to be going to shit.. so in some sense, everything seems to go to shit together, at least in the short-to-medium term.. but yeah, when we zoom out we likely recognize that overall bitcoin did better than various alternative places that we might have had kept our value, even though there might have had been some short-term timeframes that we felt that we were being unjustly beaten up and underperforming in crazy irrational ways.
Of course guys might be more worried about selling too much too soon if they are ONLY in 3x to 5x profits versus if they are in 12x to 20x profits and maybe the ups and down matter even less if they are in the ballpark of 100x or more in profits... so sometimes where we are at tends to make a difference.
There is also some issues in regards to how many other income sources that we have outside of bitcoin that can help us to get through some of the ups and downs so that we don't feel that we are selling on the way down, whether the bottom has been reached or not.
Not planning on selling big chunks as long as my fiat sources cover my expenses.
It is tough to sell on the way down.. even though if we are above a certain levels of profits in our personal holdings, we still might be worried about selling on dips, even though if we are ONLY shaving off small amounts, it might not make a big difference to sell some, even if we are dipping, especially if we are selling based on needs rather than selling based on fears about price direction.
And I still hope Jay wins the bet and we'll see $150k in 2026.
Just some thoughts...
If we were to have a choice in terms of the details of our wishes, then it is hard to know whether it would be better if I would win in this month or in December versus is if the correction drags out into 2026, and of course, another possibility that was discussed earlier would be that I would not win the bet but then in the second quarter of 2026 the ATH ends up getting breached. I suppose any of those scenarios are within realms of reasonable bullish (or at least less bearish) scenarios to potentially play out.
Poll
