Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

@philipma1957 can you please open your thread for saving merit record for sometime
I have one that I believe it's worth sharing there.




Been scared for days someone shouldn't cross it without me saving

1234

Sure check it out

[Biodom]

It's impossible to seize something that doesn't exist, yellow cake anyone?

Actually I am a fan of a quality cheesecake not a yellow cake.

Last I looked Iran borders on the Caspian Sea as does Russia. So if Russia sends a large navy ship to Iran will the USA sink it?

Or better yet if Russia send a sub to Iran across or should I say  under the Caspian Sea to  Iran are we going to sink it.

The logic of attacking Iran escapes me.

So prevention of Iran from Nuke missiles means preventing Russia from sending some to them.

They have only frigates and corvettes there according to Google, nothing major.
Historically, there were submarines in the Caspian sea, also per google, but only during USSR times.
Caspian sea is basically a slightly salinated lake (1/3 salt of the regular sea).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Sure...a recovery, but only future would say if it was a baby bull or just a bounce.
However, i hope for the former.

"Baby bull."  You deserve a virtual slap for that one.  

au contraire...baby bull is almost perfect comparison because it does two things: suggests that it is early (which it is, no doubt) while also suggesting that it could develop into a full grown specimen of a bull.
You may call it a bull calf...if baby bull is too cute for ya.
 

I agree that when we transition from bull to bear and/or from bear to bull, such transitions tend to be difficult to figure out, which is which (like in Animal Farm)..

Yet, at the same time, I contend that we are either in one or another, there is no middle path..

just like a woman is either pregnant or not.. There is no such thing as "a little pregnant."  It is a yes or no matter, and rightly or wrongly I consider bear/bull status to be the same thing, even if there are periods that we are having difficulties figuring out which one it is...  I am no mathematician, but we could be talking about some variation of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle? Could be?

[philipma1957]

The correction ended the day we hit 71k

59k to 71k is plus 20% so we are in the beginning of a new bull run.

Of course it is a bare minimum to qualify. But it is plus  20% so if we float around at 71k or so it is baby bull beginning  not correction.

With Iran popping drones and missiles all over the middle east many are stacking wealth into btc since you can blow up a house you can blow up a painting but you can't blow up btc if it is stored correctly.

According to Grok there were 3 bear market bounces of 20% or more during the crash of 2022 before the market eventually hit bottom. While I don’t put any value on the number of bounces, a 20% rally not leading to a bull run is nothing new. Failure to put in a new short term high above $74K was a clear indicator the trend is still down.

I tend to agree with the part that it is currently unclear, but I wouldn't proclaim any significance of the 74K spot so far.
Besides, the classical definition of a bear is 20% down, but the reverse 20% is not a bull definition.
Bull definition is the increase that brings about a new high (after a 20% decline).
By this criteria, no true bull until we breach 126K.

However, this might be too strict and going backwards we could all agree, perhaps, that the last bull started at 15.7K, but we only knew it for sure once it exceeded the prior high of 68.6K or about.
Therefore, current market could be a new bull, but also may be a bear bounce.

yep and since I get show in many searches it behoves us all to agree it is a baby bull

not like the morons screaming bear bear bear bear.

We do not type into a vacuum JJG philipma1957 biodom ognasty have long google hits relating to btc and bitcointalk

so bull bull bull is better than bear bear bear.


and if it really shows bear bear bear simply do not use that term.

why generate fodder for the al gore rhythm  of bear?

unless of course you bet bear like og did

and he would not want a drift up to 80k then sideways till the fall with more up as the Middle East war lingers.

[philipma1957]

new subject

looks like Iran had to shut down a lot of mines.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   940684  (10 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   93.0275%  (1229 / 1321.11 expected, 92.11 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   144398401518100.9                            
Current Difficulty:   145042165424853.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 134965418323801 and 136409659148070
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.9475% and -5.9517%
Previous Retarget:   March 5, 2026 at 12:25 PM  (+0.4458%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 10:45 AM  (in 5d 17h 9m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 2:36 PM  (in 5d 20h 59m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 21h 20m 44s and 15d 1h 11m 0s

this is an interest effect of the war which will help all miners other than those in Iran

maybe 70eh of gear is offline

or 70,000ph
or 70,000,000th which is around  70,000,000/270=

259,259.259    s21xps.  pretty cool number there in trips no less

what is more interesting is did it get blown up?

and will Iran attempt to blow up or has blown up some other middle eastern countries

mines.

[xhomerx10]

My circle of fellow geeks here and nobody said,  "Happy Pi Day!"
Sheesh!

[philipma1957]

My circle of fellow geeks here and nobody said,  "Happy Pi Day!"
Sheesh!

right after 259,259.259

now the question is can anyone find a relationship for those two numbers?

[Biodom]

My circle of fellow geeks here and nobody said,  "Happy Pi Day!"
Sheesh!

right after 259,259.259

now the question is can anyone find a relationship for those two numbers?

interesting...your number is a repeating rational number, but Pi is an transcendental number.
hmmm.

well...your number corresponds to a number of Sp21 being shut down in the prior post..i guess you saw it on 3/14, hence the connection?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Last I looked Iran borders on the Caspian Sea as does Russia. So if Russia sends a large navy ship to Iran will the USA sink it?

Or better yet if Russia send a sub to Iran across or should I say  under the Caspian Sea to  Iran are we going to sink it.

The logic of attacking Iran escapes me.

So prevention of Iran from Nuke missiles means preventing Russia from sending some to them.

Really!!!  You like Iran's mantra "DEATH TO AMERICA" and want them to have NUKES?  

You must be perfectly okay with the fact that Iran is responsible for killing over 1,000 Americans - and wanting to kill us all!

I guess you'd be like scumbag Hussein Obama and stupid dead-brain Biden - and send them billions in cash and kick the can down the road!  

[philipma1957]

My circle of fellow geeks here and nobody said,  "Happy Pi Day!"
Sheesh!

right after 259,259.259

now the question is can anyone find a relationship for those two numbers?

interesting...your number is a repeating rational number, but Pi is an transcendental number.
hmmm.

well...your number corresponds to a number of Sp21 being shut down in the prior post..i guess you saw it on 3/14, hence the connection?

hmm there must be a mental link due to mathematics between me and homer as the posting is quite amazing unless of course homer saw the post and it triggered him to post the pi post which would mean it stimulated his math and time keeping skills.

Still 259,259.259 happened due to the 270 divider which has a relationship to 9 which is the king of repeaters.

hmm Beatles number 9 number 9 number 9 were they referring to the magic dividing power of nine in that song.

Hmm maybe this all is a math construct about to be unraveled  by none other than

Trumpppppppp!


holy fuck are we about to all awaken!!

[Hueristic]

It's impossible to seize something that doesn't exist, yellow cake anyone?

Actually I am a fan of a quality cheesecake not a yellow cake.

Last I looked Iran borders on the Caspian Sea as does Russia. So if Russia sends a large navy ship to Iran will the USA sink it?

Or better yet if Russia send a sub to Iran across or should I say  under the Caspian Sea to  Iran are we going to sink it.

The logic of attacking Iran escapes me.

So prevention of Iran from Nuke missiles means preventing Russia from sending some to them.

I dunno, its a mystery.

https://xcancel.com/realDonaldTrump/status/255784560904773633

[philipma1957]

Last I looked Iran borders on the Caspian Sea as does Russia. So if Russia sends a large navy ship to Iran will the USA sink it?

Or better yet if Russia send a sub to Iran across or should I say  under the Caspian Sea to  Iran are we going to sink it.

The logic of attacking Iran escapes me.

So prevention of Iran from Nuke missiles means preventing Russia from sending some to them.

Really!!!  You like Iran's mantra "DEATH TO AMERICA" and want them to have NUKES?  

No and do you want us to sink every Russian ship in the Caspian Sea?  Since nukes are easy peasy to ship on a ship.

Have you ever watch a dozen marines watch a 16 foot long tube capped on both ends

and about 16 inches in diameter.  In fact 8 of those tubes guarded for a total of 24 hours a day while shipped from the P.I. to Diego Garcia .

The only way to stop that shipment would be to sink that boat.

Russia ships back and forth to Iran on the Caspian Sea on a constant basis.

I do not think the USA  will be sinking those ships and or Subs  that can travel on that sea on a constant basis thus we simply can not stop and never could stop Iran from having Nukes.

Look back in the day Russia loaded Cuba with nuke missiles I remember ducking and covering under my fucking desk on a daily drill for about a year straight .

Then Russia finally back offed and pulled the missiles out of Cuba.

So is this the 1960's and repeat the game this time with Trumpppppp and Putin

rather than Kennedy and Khrushchev

[philipma1957]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/videos-satellite-images-show-irans-100000089.html



Videos and satellite images show Iran's drone army puncturing U.S. and allied defenses
Jane Lytvynenko
Sat, March 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT

The buzz came before the explosion. An aerial vehicle dove from the cloudless sky toward its target at Camp Buehring, a U.S. military base in Kuwait. It struck near a running track with a fiery plume of black smoke.

“Oh s---t,” a man recording from the base said. “Oh my God. Oh, that was right here. They’re f---ing getting… They’re starting to dial into our building.”

The video ends as the smoke billows in the desert outpost.

The footage of this attack, posted online on March 1 but possibly filmed earlier, is one of over 30 open-source videos and satellite images verified by NBC News showing Iranian drone strikes and interceptions by the U.S. and its allies across seven countries. Apparent targets include military bases, transportation hubs, energy infrastructure and diplomatic centers. In 21 of 26 videos, drones appear to reach their targets.



21 out of 26 successful attacks

moron will likely be nuking soon

been good knowing all of you.



there is some hope if you read the full story above here is the greatest quote of all time.

The U.S. is one of over 10 countries formally requesting help from Ukraine, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said in a post on social media that Ukraine has dispatched three teams to the Middle East.

The Trump administration’s official ask came six days after the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, according to a post from Zelenskyy on social media at the time, despite Ukraine offering it months earlier. Ukraine has nearly four years of experience dealing with the weapon, earned at the expense of infrastructure destroyed and civilian lives lost as it pleaded for air defense.

“Ukraine can contribute to stabilization,” said Zelenskyy on Friday at a news conference in France.

that's right Trump come begging from Mr Z

hah

[BTCETFInvestor]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/videos-satellite-images-show-irans-100000089.html



Videos and satellite images show Iran's drone army puncturing U.S. and allied defenses
Jane Lytvynenko
Sat, March 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT

The buzz came before the explosion. An aerial vehicle dove from the cloudless sky toward its target at Camp Buehring, a U.S. military base in Kuwait. It struck near a running track with a fiery plume of black smoke.

“Oh s---t,” a man recording from the base said. “Oh my God. Oh, that was right here. They’re f---ing getting… They’re starting to dial into our building.”

The video ends as the smoke billows in the desert outpost.

The footage of this attack, posted online on March 1 but possibly filmed earlier, is one of over 30 open-source videos and satellite images verified by NBC News showing Iranian drone strikes and interceptions by the U.S. and its allies across seven countries. Apparent targets include military bases, transportation hubs, energy infrastructure and diplomatic centers. In 21 of 26 videos, drones appear to reach their targets.



21 out of 26 successful attacks

moron will likely be nuking soon

been good knowing all of you.

Phil - So, you think this military campaign against Iran to protect Americans and Israelis will be a pyrrhic victory? 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/videos-satellite-images-show-irans-100000089.html



Videos and satellite images show Iran's drone army puncturing U.S. and allied defenses
Jane Lytvynenko
Sat, March 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT

The buzz came before the explosion. An aerial vehicle dove from the cloudless sky toward its target at Camp Buehring, a U.S. military base in Kuwait. It struck near a running track with a fiery plume of black smoke.

“Oh s---t,” a man recording from the base said. “Oh my God. Oh, that was right here. They’re f---ing getting… They’re starting to dial into our building.”

The video ends as the smoke billows in the desert outpost.

The footage of this attack, posted online on March 1 but possibly filmed earlier, is one of over 30 open-source videos and satellite images verified by NBC News showing Iranian drone strikes and interceptions by the U.S. and its allies across seven countries. Apparent targets include military bases, transportation hubs, energy infrastructure and diplomatic centers. In 21 of 26 videos, drones appear to reach their targets.



21 out of 26 successful attacks

moron will likely be nuking soon

been good knowing all of you.

Phil - So, you think this military campaign against Iran to protect Americans and Israelis will be a pyrrhic victory?  

Phil - You must be very proud of what Hussein Obama did with American taxpayer money to help Iran fund their terrorism as shown in the video link below!    

For someone that served in the U.S. Navy and retired from a U.S. government job with the IRS; you should be ashamed of yourself!

https://youtu.be/tLJfLLSpndA?t=3  

[BTCETFInvestor]

Will BTC miners in the not-too-distant future have to rely on fees people pay to use the network rather than the new coins they 'mint'?


As of March 2026, the 20 millionth Bitcoin has officially been mined, leaving less than 1 million BTC left to be created over the next 114 years.

While the "95% mined" figure is a powerful psychological milestone, its impact over the next decade is less about the total number and more about the flow of new coins. Here is how that dynamic will likely play out:

1. The "Drip" Becomes a Drought
Even though 95% of the supply exists, the rate at which the remaining 5% enters the market is slowing down dramatically due to the halving schedule.

Next 10 Years: You will live through two more halvings (expected in 2028 and 2032).

Supply Crunch: By 2032, the block reward will drop to roughly 0.78 BTC. This means the daily "new supply" will be a tiny fraction of current institutional demand.

The Math: While it took 17 years to mine the first 20 million, it will take until 2140 to mine the final million.

2. Institutional "Supply Absorption"
The next decade will likely be defined by "Passive Absorption." We are already seeing companies like MicroStrategy and other corporate treasuries buying BTC at a rate nearly 3 times faster than miners can produce it.

Exchanges: Bitcoin held on exchanges has been in a long-term decline. When 95% is already "out there," but much of it is held by long-term "HODLers" or ETFs, the liquid supply (what's actually for sale) is much lower than the 20 million figure suggests.

3. Price Floor & Volatility
Basic economics suggests that if demand remains constant (or grows) while the new supply is cut by 50% every four years, the "clearing price" must rise.

Impact: This creates a "supply shock" effect. Historically, the years following a halving (like 2029 and 2033) have seen significant price appreciation as the market adjusts to the new, tighter issuance.

4. Shift in Security Economics
As we approach the final 1 million coins, the conversation will shift from issuance to transaction fees.

In the next decade, miners will have to rely more on the fees people pay to use the network rather than the new coins they "mint." This will test the long-term sustainability of Bitcoin’s security model.