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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21577022 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (143 posts by 33 users deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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May 11, 2013, 03:02:43 PM
 #7121

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May 11, 2013, 03:08:00 PM
 #7122

Oh indeed, on the log chart the supporting trend for 2013 is largely straight and one we are slowly settling in on.

People are quick to dismiss the run to 266 as a bubble. Which is was. However the exposure, Bitcoin press, spike in searches, downloads, growth globally, lots of very positive side affects. The old saying that there's no such thing as bad publicity, turned out to be true for Bitcoin. While you can discount the rapid price surge up to 266, a lot of legitimate value was indeed created. Whether that's 5%, %15, 30%, that's up for debate.

Take our growth line, add in a bump for the 266 bubble, landing at $105-$125 sounds about right. Days of sideways action. Where's the panic sellers? Where's the panic buyers? Panic has left the building. The people on the sidelines are praying for a crash so they can jump back in. When a bubble collapses, people flee the market. You have panic selling. We had an epic crash. The idea that people are "slowly" fleeing the market and "slowly" panic selling and that it's just an extended collapse is turning into a bad punchline. The only people left saying that are people trying to get back in at a discount.
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May 11, 2013, 03:15:20 PM
 #7123

That discounts everyone who bought in at $200-$260 and are sitting on huge losses right now.  I'd assume most are looking to bail out of this market as soon as possible but have no choice but to pray for some sort of increase to at least minimize the damage.  If we should see a spike back to $160-$180, I'd expect a flood of selling at the peak as people cut their losses and run for the hills.  Don't think I need to specify what happens to the markets next...
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May 11, 2013, 03:16:53 PM
 #7124

Bit out of date now but:



If something has a massive underlying trend it eventually reverts to it.

World population over the last 12,000 years (log scale):

phoenix1
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May 11, 2013, 03:22:05 PM
 #7125

The idea that people are "slowly" fleeing the market and "slowly" panic selling and that it's just an extended collapse is turning into a bad punchline. The only people left saying that are people trying to get back in at a discount.

I agree with about the oxymoronic use of 'slow' panic  Cheesy ... that don't make much sense ...
However, I dont agree that anyone who wants to buy in at a lower level than this is trying to get in at a discount. There are a lot of assumptions in that. I know that is not exactly what you said, but similar things have been said by many people, so I am just pointing it out that it ain't necessarily so. I am sure there are people running round trying to scare people so they can buy cheaper something they believe to be worth more (I see them!). Some others amongst us just don't want to buy at these prices and see too much risk here and now.
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May 11, 2013, 03:29:52 PM
 #7126

I'm in the same exact boat.  I have some Bitcoins now at ~90 and I thought that was high.  I've got fiat on standby but I absolutely refuse to buy at these prices.  And if it continues to rise, then Bitcoin is not for me (as far as trading goes) and I'll simply move to another crypto.  I would guess this is a good portion of the sentiment of those on the sidelines.  It's just getting to a price point where average traders are getting priced out.

I've seen all the $500, $1000 and even $300k coin statements.  I truly hope that happens for people but if that's the case, who are these people paying $500-$300k per coin?  Because I know who it's not going to be.   Roll Eyes
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May 11, 2013, 03:34:53 PM
 #7127

I've seen all the $500, $1000 and even $300k coin statements.  I truly hope that happens for people but if that's the case, who are these people paying $500-$300k per coin?  

When/if the time comes for the $300k coins:

A) People will have stopped refering to whole coins when comparing prices, rather mBTC or most likely even lower.
B) Except for "people" to buy in at those prices, that kind of growth requires governments treating Bitcoin as a reserve currency.
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May 11, 2013, 03:40:27 PM
 #7128

I'm in the same exact boat.  I have some Bitcoins now at ~90 and I thought that was high.  I've got fiat on standby but I absolutely refuse to buy at these prices.  And if it continues to rise, then Bitcoin is not for me (as far as trading goes) and I'll simply move to another crypto.  I would guess this is a good portion of the sentiment of those on the sidelines.  It's just getting to a price point where average traders are getting priced out.

I've seen all the $500, $1000 and even $300k coin statements.  I truly hope that happens for people but if that's the case, who are these people paying $500-$300k per coin?  

The sheeple ....
The ones that are the very last to buy once all technological barriers have been overcome, all governments have been dissolved or have approved it, all transfer to fiat fees have been removed, and your grandma can use it while knitting you a pair of socks.
At the moment it is way too complex and immature for anything close to mass adoption IMO. The best that could be hoped for would be saturation of 'the above-average intelligece, relatively computer literate, high risk apetite with libertarian tendencies' group. Still quite large, but very definitely a minority group. To expand past this, things have to change a lot, which is lucky, as it gives time to get better infrastructure in place
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May 11, 2013, 03:42:12 PM
 #7129

I'm actually quite fine with the price being stable around 115-120, now you can finally actually pay for things using Bitcoin without worrying about the price fluctuating so much. Yesterday I paid for the Humble Bundle using Bitcoin, then I bought coffee and now I was just about to re-new my server subscription and what do I see?




It's....it's beautiful!  Shocked
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May 11, 2013, 03:47:22 PM
 #7130

If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.
Some will likely chase it if it goes up
Some, like me, will simply walk away
I don't see it as a given that all the money sitting at lower levels will invest at higher levels if we don't go down - some of it is sitting there because it that is where it feels comfortable. A lot of the smart money won't chase the train IMO ... it is generally more disciplined than that (I do not by inference mean to classify myself as smart money  Tongue)
And I still see the potential for more early adopters to take some cash off the table for a very good profit at these levels and lower

An as yet unknown external shock, positive or negative, may determine the outcome

Slightly contrarian, not trying to scare anyone, just giving the opinion of someone who is new to Bitcoin (about 6 weeks of exposure) and thinking about not jumping on board unless we go down significantly from here.
Until there is more utility it is purely a speculative investment as far as I can tell. These things will come I am sure. Well, everyone says they will. But until then, it caries a very large 'Caveat Emptor' tag, which for me means I don't want to invest at current levels.

That is not to say that I do not find the whole concept very interesting indeed

Time will tell ... I am as clueless about the future direction as everyone else  Wink

Exactly.

Many statements (ro should i say fantasies) in this forum go beyond my comprehension. Like in a cult, where everybody believes somthing and nobody can really explain why.

Bitcoin could be a great thing, but I get tired of reading "I'm just waiting for cheap coins" or "look at those weak hands, I know more than them hahaha" (well maybe you don't?) or "I miss my volatility,how am i supposed to get rich with this bitch when it doesn't move" or "it can only go up"

It could very well crash into the ground anytime and dissolve into a probably pretty painful memory.

If anyone believes "it can only go up", why not buy now? Because it could crash? lol
If the bulls puit money where their mouth is, they'd buy like there's no tomorrow.
That's obviously not the case - Why?

Anyway, just a few thoughts.

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May 11, 2013, 03:48:32 PM
 #7131

I'm actually quite fine with the price being stable around 115-120, now you can finally actually pay for things using Bitcoin without worrying about the price fluctuating so much. Yesterday I paid for the Humble Bundle using Bitcoin, then I bought coffee and now I was just about to re-new my server subscription and what do I see?

It's....it's beautiful!  Shocked

That's great ... you are actually spending your Bitcoins ... most people seem to only want to hold them til they reach the moon
And the 3% discount is great ... should probably cover all the slippage involved in buying Bitcoins in the first place

These obstacles need to be removed ...
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May 11, 2013, 03:50:08 PM
 #7132


115$ are cheap coins right now, and 500$ will be cheap in a few months, until Bitcoin discover his real price, i say at least 100,000$ each Wink


This is a statement made on emotion and not facts.  I agree with this:


When/if the time comes for the $300k coins:

A) People will have stopped refering to whole coins when comparing prices, rather mBTC or most likely even lower.
B) Except for "people" to buy in at those prices, that kind of growth requires governments treating Bitcoin as a reserve currency.

I'm not saying it's impossible.  Like I said I own bitcoins, far fewer than most I'm sure but still...a $100k+ coins would be more lovely than what KillaMarci just posted.  (Which is awesome BTW)   Grin

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go and warn granny.  You know how many socks she could knit for $300k.   Shocked
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May 11, 2013, 03:51:01 PM
 #7133

If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.


This is pretty much exactly what I told my girlfriend when she finally asked why she wasn't getting hourly bitcoin updates anymore!

Though obviously, her eyes had glazed over before I finished the first sentence...
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May 11, 2013, 03:52:25 PM
 #7134

Slightly contrarian, not trying to scare anyone, just giving the opinion of someone who is new to Bitcoin (about 6 weeks of exposure) and thinking about not jumping on board unless we go down significantly from here.

I was thinking the same of you on last december of 2012 when i discovered Bitcoin, at the time i purchased (january) the price was already 13.20$/BTC.

I was not sure to invest or not, at that outrageous price of (13$) that seemed a bubble to me.

You know what happended after that, boom to 266$!

Glad i buy some 500 cheap coins months back, i don't mind if they devalue to 30$ again  Wink

115$ are cheap coins right now, and 500$ will be cheap in a few months, until Bitcoin discover his real price, i say at least 100,000$ each Wink


People need to realize that 21 million coins (11 currently) is NOT a lot of coins and the more popular and the more people adopt bitcoins the higher the value will get and we should be thinking about mB instead of a whole bitcoin.
Just compared bitcoin to any shares from any company. 21 million is not a whole lot!
I'm surprised when people are expecting to see $40 again, but I guess those are the ones who missed the boat and now they are just in wishful thinking mode... I get it.
115 is a perfect price for right now and I can live with that. maybe in 6-8 months we'll see another big jump for now, 115-120 makes sense.
I used to have an exit strategy and I chose to go the trader way, now my exit strategy is simply to make money by trading while slowly increasing my coin stock as well and it's been paying off.
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May 11, 2013, 03:54:13 PM
 #7135

If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.


This is pretty much exactly what I told my girlfriend when she finally asked why she wasn't getting hourly bitcoin updates anymore!

Though obviously, her eyes had glazed over before I finished the first sentence...

Maybe you just do not understand the potential.

Think about what people was saying about $10 coins in 2011, after the bubble to $32

Chooooo chooooo

 Grin


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May 11, 2013, 03:55:28 PM
 #7136

I'm actually quite fine with the price being stable around 115-120, now you can finally actually pay for things using Bitcoin without worrying about the price fluctuating so much. Yesterday I paid for the Humble Bundle using Bitcoin, then I bought coffee and now I was just about to re-new my server subscription and what do I see?

It's....it's beautiful!  Shocked

That's great ... you are actually spending your Bitcoins ... most people seem to only want to hold them til they reach the moon
And the 3% discount is great ... should probably cover all the slippage involved in buying Bitcoins in the first place

These obstacles need to be removed ...

Seems something like Ripple could really help Bitcoin.  It's easy to get into and you can trade XRPs for Bitcoins.  Lot's of kinks to work out in crypto...despite some pessimism...crypto is here to stay and I love the thoughts of the future.
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May 11, 2013, 03:56:07 PM
 #7137

If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.


This is pretty much exactly what I told my girlfriend when she finally asked why she wasn't getting hourly bitcoin updates anymore!

Though obviously, her eyes had glazed over before I finished the first sentence...

Lol ... you are lucky she's stuck around this long ...

Not now baby ... Bitcoins going crazy
No I can't wash the car ... I've got to watch the price
Damn missed it again ... you should have seen the price action
etc
etc
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May 11, 2013, 03:57:32 PM
 #7138

We were at $165 post crash.

So the biggest risk to the market is everyone who bought in at $200-$260, who are just waiting to dump everything and exit? So wait, they rode out the biggest BTC crash in history, wait 3 months, just to sell at a loss when the price is getting back up to where they bought in? That seems like poor financial planning.

They dump coins, leave the market, people buy them up, it's not really that big of a deal. It's been going on daily for the last 2 months.

That discounts everyone who bought in at $200-$260 and are sitting on huge losses right now.  I'd assume most are looking to bail out of this market as soon as possible but have no choice but to pray for some sort of increase to at least minimize the damage.  If we should see a spike back to $160-$180, I'd expect a flood of selling at the peak as people cut their losses and run for the hills.  Don't think I need to specify what happens to the markets next...
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May 11, 2013, 03:58:16 PM
 #7139

Slightly contrarian, not trying to scare anyone, just giving the opinion of someone who is new to Bitcoin (about 6 weeks of exposure) and thinking about not jumping on board unless we go down significantly from here.

I was thinking the same of you on last december of 2012 when i discovered Bitcoin, at the time i purchased (january) the price was already 13.20$/BTC.

I was not sure to invest or not, at that outrageous price of (13$) that seemed a bubble to me.

You know what happended after that, boom to 266$!

Glad i buy some 500 cheap coins months back, i don't mind if they devalue to 30$ again  Wink

115$ are cheap coins right now, and 500$ will be cheap in a few months, until Bitcoin discover his real price, i say at least 100,000$ each Wink


People need to realize that 21 million coins (11 currently) is NOT a lot of coins and the more popular and the more people adopt bitcoins the higher the value will get and we should be thinking about mB instead of a whole bitcoin.
Just compared bitcoin to any shares from any company. 21 million is not a whole lot!
I'm surprised when people are expecting to see $40 again, but I guess those are the ones who missed the boat and now they are just in wishful thinking mode... I get it.
115 is a perfect price for right now and I can live with that. maybe in 6-8 months we'll see another big jump for now, 115-120 makes sense.
I used to have an exit strategy and I chose to go the trader way, now my exit strategy is simply to make money by trading while slowly increasing my coin stock as well and it's been paying off.


Wouldn't the markets have to make this transition in trading.  Kind of like a stock split to switch over to mBits or how would this work?  Oh and congrats on your continued success.
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May 11, 2013, 04:01:12 PM
 #7140

We were at $165 post crash.

So the biggest risk to the market is everyone who bought in at $200-$260, who are just waiting to dump everything and exit? So wait, they rode out the biggest BTC crash in history, wait 3 months, just to sell at a loss when the price is getting back up to where they bought in? That seems like poor financial planning.

They dump coins, leave the market, people buy them up, it's not really that big of a deal. It's been going on daily for the last 2 months.

That discounts everyone who bought in at $200-$260 and are sitting on huge losses right now.  I'd assume most are looking to bail out of this market as soon as possible but have no choice but to pray for some sort of increase to at least minimize the damage.  If we should see a spike back to $160-$180, I'd expect a flood of selling at the peak as people cut their losses and run for the hills.  Don't think I need to specify what happens to the markets next...

I didn't say this was the biggest risk to the market, I said your comments don't take this into account.  No, it is not sound financial planning but I'd say those who bought in at $260, were not making a wise financial decision to begin with.  Unless of course they are planning to go long, which at this point in time, no one knows if it will be the greatest decision of all time or a flop.  But let's not pretend there isn't plenty of money that saw the huge rise and jumped in on pure greed, hoping to not miss the train and will look to cut their losses if they can.  That was my only point.
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