Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

*this really might be my all time favorite movie.

You might be in good company  
I was thinking of any movie i liked better, for about five minutes.
"Snatch" came to my mind as the only movie i consider almost on en par.
So, Guy Ritchie should undoubtedly be my all-time-favorite director, then.

Kraken has frozen its IPO. I guess they felt that trying to go public right now would be a mistake. I agree. I also saw that Metaplanet is moving around thousands of BTC… We are still very much in the deleveraging phase of this cycle and it seems pretty obvious. STRC hasn’t gotten back to $1 from Saylor’s last buy… Pain ahead.

Still, recovery moves are initially stronger, so there are buyers. It seems likely that the cycle low will be higher than one might expect on historical TA projections.
I always avoid those fibonacci key levels, because i can't remember all the details and would use them wrong, as would be the results.
Anyway, do they still work quite reliably on BTC charts?
I suggest you might have a more complete view on this, so i thought it couldn't hurt to ask.

[zeroknowledgeproofs]

crazy news today as well for Hyperliquid ...prob why its outperforming most stuff

https://x.com/tradexyz/status/2034260987197444255?s=46

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Let the FUD times roll…

Fun fact. Almost exactly 4 years ago on March 22-29 of 2022, Bitcoin printed 8 straight daily green candles after falling 40% from it’s all time high reached just months earlier. Over the next 80 days the Bitcoin price fell victim to another 60% dip. History may not repeat itself, but I’m waiting and listening for the rhyme.

History can rhyme,
though if it penned a haiku-
poignancy would rule.  

History does know
I’m reading whiteout a clue…
Still merit it though

I almost added "The same way I would feel about large number (many millions) of Belgians to give you a laugh here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66520624#msg66520624

[OgNasty]

Kraken has frozen its IPO. I guess they felt that trying to go public right now would be a mistake. I agree. I also saw that Metaplanet is moving around thousands of BTC… We are still very much in the deleveraging phase of this cycle and it seems pretty obvious. STRC hasn’t gotten back to $1 from Saylor’s last buy… Pain ahead.

Still, recovery moves are initially stronger, so there are buyers. It seems likely that the cycle low will be higher than one might expect on historical TA projections.
I always avoid those fibonacci key levels, because i can't remember all the details and would use them wrong, as would be the results.
Anyway, do they still work quite reliably on BTC charts?
I suggest you might have a more complete view on this, so i thought it couldn't hurt to ask.

I never cared for arbitrary % movements like the Fibonacci sequence uses. I always look at previous highs/lows that break prior trends as my basis for resistance/support. For example, right now when I look at a 90-day chart I see a lot of resistance around $97K and a lot of support at $59K. Any movement between those two levels are just traders having fun.

You can also shrink the chart to a 30 day chart for more active traders. That would place resistance at $75K and support around $63K. For the day to day traders in here with a short term view, those are the levels I would be watching.

Zoom out to a four year cycle and you get $16K and $126K… Add in supply and demand changes for kicks and you get a cycle low of $32K and a high of $250K. Add in reduced volatility for options and I think a cycle low of $48K later this year and a high of $185K in the summer of 2029 are likely targets (you could also factor in inflation and raise them a bit), but I of course make my personal trades by the date, not the price. This is obviously me just talking out of my ass, but we’ll see how accurate it is in a few years. I mean, it worked for Jim Carey.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Kraken has frozen its IPO. I guess they felt that trying to go public right now would be a mistake. I agree. I also saw that Metaplanet is moving around thousands of BTC… We are still very much in the deleveraging phase of this cycle and it seems pretty obvious. STRC hasn’t gotten back to $1 from Saylor’s last buy… Pain ahead.

Still, recovery moves are initially stronger, so there are buyers. It seems likely that the cycle low will be higher than one might expect on historical TA projections.
I always avoid those fibonacci key levels, because i can't remember all the details and would use them wrong, as would be the results.
Anyway, do they still work quite reliably on BTC charts?
I suggest you might have a more complete view on this, so i thought it couldn't hurt to ask.

I never cared for arbitrary % movements like the Fibonacci sequence uses. I always look at previous highs/lows that break prior trends as my basis for resistance/support. For example, right now when I look at a 90-day chart I see a lot of resistance around $97K and a lot of support at $59K. Any movement between those two levels are just traders having fun.

You can also shrink the chart to a 30 day chart for more active traders. That would place resistance at $75K and support around $63K. For the day to day traders in here with a short term view, those are the levels I would be watching.

Zoom out to a four year cycle and you get $16K and $126K… Add in supply and demand changes for kicks and you get a cycle low of $32K and a high of $250K. Add in reduced volatility for options and I think a cycle low of $48K later this year and a high of $185K in the summer of 2029 are likely targets (you could also factor in inflation and raise them a bit), but I of course make my personal trades by the date, not the price. This is obviously me just talking out of my ass, but we’ll see how accurate it is in a few years. I mean, it worked for Jim Carey.

you were funny so I tossed a merit here.

I actually smiled a bit.

[OgNasty]

you were funny so I tossed a merit here.

I actually smiled a bit.

I always try to be funny.  Everything I type should be read as though it is a response from a judge on Kill Tony.  Sure, I'm trying to help people and give them useful advice that will help them going forward, but I'm also trying to make people laugh.  Unfortunately, that doesn't always come across on a computer screen.  You'd think after getting sued for hurting someone's feelings here I would loosen up a bit, but I've never been the type to change my behavior to avoid conflict.

https://www.youtube.com/killtony - Literally the best thing you can watch on TV right now.  Monday's episode with the guy who could s*** s*** had tears streaming down my face I was laughing so hard.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

...I'm okay with you - I hope you're okay with me...  

A room might work?

Perhaps?

#nohomo

crazy news today as well for Hyperliquid ...prob why its outperforming most stuff
https://x.com/tradexyz/status/2034260987197444255?s=46

How does it relate to this thread?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

crazy news today as well for Hyperliquid ...prob why its outperforming most stuff
https://x.com/tradexyz/status/2034260987197444255?s=46

How does it relate to this thread?

Haha, didn't have to figure out why i had this guy on ignore.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

UK Woman Accused of Spying on Husband, Stealing $172 Million in Bitcoin from his hardware wallet and fled to Hong Kong 

A dispute over more than $172 million in Bitcoin has moved forward in the UK’s High Court of Justice, where a man alleges his estranged wife stole thousands of coins from his hardware wallet using covert surveillance inside their home.

Court filings show that Ping Fai Yuen, a UK resident, held 2,323 Bitcoin in a Trezor hardware wallet in 2023.

On Aug. 2 of that year, the full balance was transferred without his knowledge. The funds were later split across 71 separate addresses through a series of transactions. No movement has been recorded since Dec. 21, 2023.

More (see link below)

► https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/wife-spying-on-husband-stealing-bitcoin

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

crazy news today as well for Hyperliquid ...prob why its outperforming most stuff
https://x.com/tradexyz/status/2034260987197444255?s=46

How does it relate to this thread?

Haha, didn't have to figure out why i had this guy on ignore.

I didn't. Yet.

[Hueristic]

crazy news today as well for Hyperliquid ...prob why its outperforming most stuff
https://x.com/tradexyz/status/2034260987197444255?s=46

How does it relate to this thread?

Haha, didn't have to figure out why i had this guy on ignore.

I didn't. Yet.

I read jjg's quote and said oh yeah that's they guy coming in  here trying to pump shitcoins, took me half a sec to remember when usually if i forget i have to look at someones post history.

Offtopic: woowoo 6969, good number!

[BTCETFInvestor]

Interesting!

Holding $70,500 today through the 'Double Whammy' of a hawkish Fed and the escalation of the Iran conflict is being viewed by analysts as a massive show of strength. Bitcoin successfully defended the very 'liquidity floor' that bulls established during Monday's breakout.

The most significant trend to watch this week and next week is Bitcoin’s decoupling from traditional stocks. While markets struggled due to war uncertainty, Bitcoin acted more like 'Digital Gold'. For the first time in 2026, Bitcoin is outperforming gold during a geopolitical crisis (Gold is actually down roughly 4-5% since the conflict began).

If this 'Haven' narrative sticks, we could see a steady climb regardless of what the stock markets do.

The $72,000 'Gateway' is critical - despite holding $70,500, Bitcoin is currently in a 'waiting zone' with two specific scenarios for the next 7–10 days:

The Bull Path (60% Probability): Bitcoin needs a high-volume daily close above $72,000. If it clears this, the 'Bear Flag' that has haunted the market since October 2025 is officially invalidated. This would open a clear path to $79,000–$80,000 by the end of March.

The Range Path (40% Probability): If it fails to break $72,000, expect 'choppy' sideways trading between $68,000 and $71,500. This would be a period of accumulation where big players (ETFs and corporate treasuries) slowly soak up the supply from nervous retail sellers.

Key Catalysts to Watch

Oil Prices & Inflation: Brent crude is hovering near $109/barrel. If oil continues to spike due to the Strait of Hormuz tensions, it creates "Stagflation" fears. While Bitcoin has been resilient, a sustained energy shock is the one thing that could eventually force a re-test of the $65,000 support level.

ETF Inflows: Watch for the Thursday/Friday ETF flow data. Last week saw $2.1 billion in net inflows. If institutions continue to "buy the war dip," the supply on exchanges will hit new record lows, making a "supply shock" rally likely.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com