Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xyzzy099]

Stolfi likes making senseless arguments to FUD. Come on, Jorge, I'm still waiting for a demostration for your claim!

(Before you scream "21 million": that bitcoin limit is "guaranteed" only by  fuzzy arguments about a complicated economic game, not "by math", and could be changed if the right players agreed to it.  Moreover, any kid can duplicate the amount of bitcoins in existence by creating a hard fork of the blockchain and starting to mine it on his laptotp.  Anyone who has bitcoins will gain an equal amount of those "series B" bitcoins, accessible through the same private keys, and could trade them independently of his old bitcoins by duplicating his wallet and downloading the kids's client software. Whether those "series B" bitcoins will get a significant market value is a market(ing) question, not a technical one.  And, of course, there are the altcoins.)

+1

I would be curious to see this demonstrated as well.

There is nothing to demonstrate.  If I understand correctly, he is just saying anybody can create an altcoin in which the initial ledger of ownership is taken over from bitcoin.  Of course, hardly anybody would see this as "being able to duplicate bitcoins". 

I concur, for the most part - but apparently this is NOT what he is claiming, as it has been pointed out to him multiple times that he is just describing the creation of Yet Another Alt Coin, but he keeps posting this FUD as if it represents some weakness in Bitcoin.  I would like him to clarify his claim, or demonstrate the supposed weakness, once and for all.

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[YourMother]

Riding this fucker to abyss

[dakota neat]

the trolls are back this is a good sign 

[JayJuanGee]

Gentlemen, this is not how you get to the moon, no sirree Bob.  You're headin' the wrong way, is what I'm trying to tell you.  Moon's the other way.

Yeah!!!!!!!   let's work on MOON....   LET'S  GO!!!!!!!!!!

[Fatman3001]

Someone should call this dude:



        Super Draper

[ChuckBuck]

the trolls are back this is a good sign 

Finally, the trolls awaken from hibernation!  

The balance has been restored in the Wall Observer Thread.  Been too long since we've seen bears sling their twisted version of wisdom among us.

[adamstgBit]

the moon has been replaced with a blazing sun melting bitcoins wax wings, our only hope, feed bitcoin ALOT of redbull

[macsga]

the trolls are back this is a good sign 

Finally, the trolls awaken from hibernation!  

The balance has been restored in the Wall Observer Thread.  Been too long since we've seen bears sling their twisted version of wisdom among us.

I wouldn't say I missed their presence... At least Adam is here and deletes the most annoying ones...

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge, I'm still waiting for a demostration for your claim!

I just posted it, again:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg10811221#msg10811221

It looks like you reposted the claim, not any demonstration - or am I missing something?

I posted a recipe for creating such a clone.  It is not original, just the recipe for a hard fork.  Do you think that there is something wrong with the recipe?

[xyzzy099]

Jorge, I'm still waiting for a demostration for your claim!

I just posted it, again:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg10811221#msg10811221

It looks like you reposted the claim, not any demonstration - or am I missing something?

I posted a recipe for creating such a clone.  It is not original, just the recipe for a hard fork.  Do you think that there is something wrong with the recipe?

Not if you are claiming it's a recipe for creating Yet Another Alt Coin.

[Silverspoon]

the trolls are back this is a good sign 

Well, now that all the relevant issuers have finally ran away with everyone's coin, Bitcointalk's securities sub is pretty much dead.
So trolls r slumming it here

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[TankHankerous]

Instagib

[YourMother]

"auction? what auction?"

Why would they sell when there are a lot of cretins that are buying right now ? I mean, those who won the auction are making mad profits as we speak. You will see the results in maximum 7 days

Yeah... according to you the dump should have happened already...  and why would they sell at a localised high? I have no idea... cannot think.. maybe they are waiting for it to fall back to where it was before the auction to sell? .. got it.

Auction? what auction?

Sorry I mean..



+  

I can't wait to quote this imbecile in the following days. You do realize that the whales got their bitcoins on monday or today...

Hi, scumpowering! Do you remember this conversation ? I forgot the part where you said that my predictions were always wrong.

Damn, you are a nasty nasty pig! You've just shit yourself once again.



What am i going to do with such a such a nasty, useless, flabby-gutted creature ? Maybe cook it ?

[Fatman3001]

Slight delay due to upgrades

[TankHankerous]

We aren't breaking 500 again until the halving anyway, no biggie

[EVOLUTION_A*D*M*I*N]

Can you put more buy support, bulls?
My trip to the caribbeans won't pay for itself. Thank you.

[criptix]

I explained how in that post; it is nothing new or complicated, it has happened a couple of times already, and is often proposed (incorrectly) as a defense of last resort against an "evil" mining majority.

The kid gets a copy of the software, makes some cosmetic change that clearly distinguishes messages of his clone from those of the original version after a certain block N, and lowers the difficulty by fiat in the clone after that block so that he can start mining  on his laptop.   After that block, presto, every bitcoin in existence gets a clone in the kid's chain, that can be accessed with the same keys and moved (spent, sold, etc.) independently of the original bitcoin.  

Whether bitcoiners will be aware of the existence of those "kidcoins", and will choose to use and/or mine them, is only a marketing problem, not a technical one...

you explained how to make a bitcoin clone with a snapshot of the bitcoin blockchain.
there exist already several of these projects and as i know they all failed.
just increasing number of bitcoins wont be enough to replace bitcoin - it has to be something fundamental.

Indeed, and those historical examples are a strong argument for centralization of mining being inevitable.  But while centralization is bad in general, it is a fundamental problem for bitcoin, because "absence of a trusted third party or central controlling authority" was supposed to be the goal of the project.  As bitcoin gurus themselves concede, a mining company or cartel who has a comfortable majority of the hashpower can control the system, e.g. by starving miners who are not part of the cartel, freezing any account that the cartel feels like freezing, etc..  Right now, one must trust that the 4-5 largest miners will not use their power for "bad things"...  

The security of the bitcoin system is supposed t come not just from the technical features of the protocol, but mainly from the incentives that are assumed to convince the majority of the players to cooperate and protect it, rather than sabotage it.   That assumption is far from certain if a handful of companies has the majority of the hashpower.

what do you think a centralized bitcoin is? digital fiat money - nothing else.
this is the reason why bitcoin participants will try their hardest to make it not happen (centralization).

bitcoin would just lose all meaning and value and people would just walk away or to bitcoin x

[macsga]

*snip*

Hello LambTroll. And Goodbye!  

Ignore button: **CLICK** (applies extra pressure)

[Trolfi]

Since you bring it up, let's speak about the Real and the Ministry of Finance /Banco Central do Brasil's "mechanisms to stabilize the value."
/snip
Which brings us to the Real. When introduced in 1994, the BCB said it would defend near parity with the USD (remember?). It is at about $0.3 USD/BRL now. It is about 18% down vs. the dollar since the beginning of the month. Inflation has jumped to 7.7%. And very unfortunately, it does not look like any of that is about to get any better any time soon, regardless of the mechanisms deployed.

(You surely sound like a Brazilian, and an anti-Dilma one specifically.  At very least, you must be from some Latin American country?)

A 70% loss of value in 20 years, and a predicted 8% inflation rate per year are nothing to boast about, sure.  But they are still better than a 8% loss in 24 hours, or  78% loss in 14 months, both totally unpredicted and unpredictable.  

Several bitcoin companies have learned the hard way that bitcoin cannot be used as unit of accounting or as liquid capital storage, not so much because of its (past and possible) loss of value, but because of its unpredictability.  (IIRC, SatoshiLabs, the makers of Trezor, were one such example.)

For contracts that span 2-3 months, an inflation rate of 1%/year can be ignored.  An inflation of 10%/year cannot be ignored; but, if it is roughly predictable, it can be accounted for in the contract; either by adjusting the amounts to be paid, or pegging them to some mutually trusted inflation index.   On the other hand, a sudden and unpredicted inflation of 10% over one week can turn a good profit into a significant loss, even if some payments are pegged to some index.

By the way, the BRL:USD exchange rate was 2.74 in 2005, 2.71 last December, and below 2.70 at all times between those dates. Not that bad, eh?  

Finally, and, most importantly, I am not advising anyone to invest in BRL, or dollars, or euros.  No one with a bit of brain invests in a currency (except for very short term speculation, and even then it is a very risky gamble).

Since you seem to be in a reasonable mood today, let me reply. I'll try to be brief.

Characteristically, your reply changes the subject. You said that one of the top 6 problems with bitcoin is that it "lacks mechanisms to stabilize the value". I pointed out that the matter is frequently no better with sovereign currencies, which do have these mechanisms. I used the recent history of your country's currency as an example, because I suppose your pocket to have been hurt dearly as a result at least once. But really, the Brazilian economy's performance and Brazilian politics are besides the point.

The crucial claim is that central bank control of the money supply tends, over the long term, to be distortive, inefficient, and unfairly advantageous to the financial sector (have you read John Nash's arguments to this effect?). Bitcoin is revolutionary, among other things, in its subversion of that dogma, and in its bold and direct implementation of an alternative. Thus to say that bitcoin lacks mechanisms to stabilize the value completely misses the boat: the system eschews those mechanisms by design.

We seem, then, to have two options: you are not equipped to get the previous point, or you disingenuously ignore it. We must assume it is the latter. So you are an obfuscator, which disqualifies you from being some kind of trusted technical advisor to the public.

Finally, nobody denies that wide fluctuations is bitcoin's exchange rate impedes its proper functioning as a currency, for now. But what do you expect? The project is 6 years old, it is not as if something can go from not existing to mature stability overnight. And obviously we all realize the project may fail -- it is unnecessary to repeatedly point out something so painfully obvious -- but in that case it is near certain that something along its lines but even more robust will replace it. Either way we are witnessing an evolution of that most interesting of concepts (and assets), money itself. You must be as fascinated by this as the rest of us, otherwise you would not put in the kind of time you have put in in researching it. And yet you keep holding on to your predetermined conclusion (skepticism over the project's long term success), and looking for arguments to support that conclusion. This is, strictly speaking, irrational.

And I guess that is what gets me: your determined, persistent irrationality. It is rather uncomfortable to witness. Unless, of course, you are just an impersonator and a troll. In which case you deserve to be trolled.