DaRude
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2895
Merit: 1912
In order to dump coins one must have coins
|
|
April 05, 2015, 07:20:09 AM |
|
Pretty sure that 99% doesn't want to fork just to delay the halfing.
That is why the "proof" that "a majoritary mining cartel can't change the protocol" is subjective. I don't know whether the miners will try to delay the halving (or do some other "sacrilege"). But, if they were to try, my estimate is that less than 10% of the bitcoiners would be furiously opposed to the halving delay, the other 90% will not care, and only the 4-5 miners with 60% of the hashpower will be in favor. Then these miners will do it anyway; and 99.9% of the bitcoiners will accept the change, including most of those who swore that they would abandon bitcoin if that happened. Because their greed will speak louder than their ideology.Bitcoiners are incredibly easy to fool if they are told what they want to hear. They believe that adoption is booming, that the exponential price trend is built-in, that Satoshi was an anarcho-libertarian, that governments cannot stop bitcoin, that Greece may adopt it, that the banks are secretly investing in it, that sidechains will solve all problems of the protocol, that Wall Street whales are holding the price down, that China is irrelevant, that Willy created the last bubble... If Antonopoulos tells everybody that postponing the halving will not delay the Apotheosis, and Roger Ver posts a video where he promises that it will be the first and last change to the protocol, and Gavin tweets that he supports the change, and Coindesk and Bloomberg and Forbes and the WSJ assert that it will be a positive development for bitcoin, then 90% of the bitcoiners will believe that it is a good thing, and the rest will pretend to believe it in order to preserve the value of their coins. Huh so there's incentive for miners to delay the halving, and if they decide to do it they will do it anyway and be successful Do you seriously think that there's over a 50% chance that the halving will be delayed??
|
|
|
|
marcus_of_augustus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
|
|
April 05, 2015, 07:32:14 AM |
|
Pretty sure that 99% doesn't want to fork just to delay the halfing.
That is why the "proof" that "a majoritary mining cartel can't change the protocol" is subjective. I don't know whether the miners will try to delay the halving (or do some other "sacrilege"). But, if they were to try, my estimate is that less than 10% of the bitcoiners would be furiously opposed to the halving delay, the other 90% will not care, and only the 4-5 miners with 60% of the hashpower will be in favor. Then these miners will do it anyway; and 99.9% of the bitcoiners will accept the change, including most of those who swore that they would abandon bitcoin if that happened. Because their greed will speak louder than their ideology.Bitcoiners are incredibly easy to fool if they are told what they want to hear. They believe that adoption is booming, that the exponential price trend is built-in, that Satoshi was an anarcho-libertarian, that governments cannot stop bitcoin, that Greece may adopt it, that the banks are secretly investing in it, that sidechains will solve all problems of the protocol, that Wall Street whales are holding the price down, that China is irrelevant, that Willy created the last bubble... If Antonopoulos tells everybody that postponing the halving will not delay the Apotheosis, and Roger Ver posts a video where he promises that it will be the first and last change to the protocol, and Gavin tweets that he supports the change, and Coindesk and Bloomberg and Forbes and the WSJ assert that it will be a positive development for bitcoin, then 90% of the bitcoiners will believe that it is a good thing, and the rest will pretend to believe it in order to preserve the value of their coins. yeah, if you had half a clue about the hardcore of bitcoiners (none you mention) you'd be more worried about protecting your own assets than spending time spouting arrant nonsense, bordering on slander, on backwater threads of bitcoin forums ... you've had a pretty easy ride so far trolfi but the clock is ticking friend.
|
|
|
|
ChartBuddy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2310
Merit: 1801
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
|
|
April 05, 2015, 07:58:41 AM |
|
|
|
|
|
JorgeStolfi
|
|
April 05, 2015, 08:14:20 AM |
|
Do you seriously think that there's over a 50% chance that the halving will be delayed??
No, I do not know whether the top miners will try it, or any other "little abuse". I believe that they could -- not just in theory, but even taking into account the possible reactions of the community. Those 4-5 miners would postpone the halving to sell twice as many coins at less than a quarter the price? The halving is priced in and if it doesn't happen there will be a crash. Everybody knows this.
Who says that it will be a quarter of the price? The past halvings did not have a visible effect on the price. So why would a delay in the halving have any effect -- unless the ideologues go out screaming "BITCOIN IS WORTHLESS" to the world? Now they wouldn't do that, right -- because "destroying the value of the thing you sell is just bad business." The ideologues would react the same way they have reacted to previous bad news, like the MtGOX collapse, the confiscation and sale of the SilkRoad coins, the China bans, etc.: they will say that bitcoin is "antifragile" and will survive this third fork like it survived the previous two, or even that the change is "good for bitcoin". In fact, that fork would probably be less traumatic than the previous two, because it would be deliberate rather than an unexpected bug. There is nothing magical about the current halving schedule. Satoshi could have just as well picked a schedule that skipped 2016 and antecipated the following halvings, and it would have been just as good (or just as bad) as the current one. If he had done that, and we were discussing the opposite change, I am sure the objections would be the same... yeah, if you had half a clue about the hardcore of bitcoiners (none you mention) you'd be more worried about protecting your own assets than spending time spouting arrant nonsense, bordering on slander, on backwater threads of bitcoin forums ... you've had a pretty easy ride so far trolfi but the clock is ticking friend.
Wait, are you accusing me of slander? Of whom exactly? Or is that a threat, "stop warning people about the problems of bitcoin, or else"?
|
|
|
|
inca
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
|
|
April 05, 2015, 08:24:35 AM |
|
Do you seriously think that there's over a 50% chance that the halving will be delayed??
No, I do not know whether the top miners will try it, or any other "little abuse". I believe that they could -- not just in theory, but even taking into account the possible reactions of the community. Those 4-5 miners would postpone the halving to sell twice as many coins at less than a quarter the price? The halving is priced in and if it doesn't happen there will be a crash. Everybody knows this.
Who says that it will be a quarter of the price? The past halvings did not have a visible effect on the price. So why would a delay in the halving have any effect -- unless the ideologues go out screaming "BITCOIN IS WORTHLESS" to the world? Now they wouldn't do that, right -- because "destroying the value of the thing you sell is just bad business." The ideologues would react the same way they have reacted to previous bad news, like the MtGOX collapse, the confiscation and sale of the SilkRoad coins, the China bans, etc.: they will say that bitcoin is "antifragile" and will survive this third fork like it survived the previous two, or even that the change is "good for bitcoin". In fact, that fork would probably be less traumatic than the previous two, because it would be deliberate rather than an unexpected bug. There is nothing magical about the current halving schedule. Satoshi could have just as well picked a schedule that skipped 2016 and antecipated the following halvings, and it would have been just as good (or just as bad) as the current one. If he had done that, and we were discussing the opposite change, I am sure the objections would be the same... yeah, if you had half a clue about the hardcore of bitcoiners (none you mention) you'd be more worried about protecting your own assets than spending time spouting arrant nonsense, bordering on slander, on backwater threads of bitcoin forums ... you've had a pretty easy ride so far trolfi but the clock is ticking friend.
Wait, are you accusing me of slander? Of whom exactly? Or is that a threat, "stop warning people about the problems of bitcoin, or else"? You are really scraping the barrel now Stolfi. You cannot find any genuine reason why bitcoin will fail in its current implementation. Solution? Find a hypothetical problem by changing the protocol. Lol. You need to get out more.
|
|
|
|
Trolfi
Member
Offline
Activity: 72
Merit: 10
|
|
April 05, 2015, 08:25:53 AM |
|
Oh dear, dear.
|
|
|
|
Sitarow
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1047
|
|
April 05, 2015, 08:46:10 AM |
|
Oh dear, dear.
|
|
|
|
ChartBuddy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2310
Merit: 1801
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
|
|
April 05, 2015, 08:58:40 AM |
|
|
|
|
|
luckygenough56
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1012
|
|
April 05, 2015, 09:11:26 AM |
|
mining cartels are not done yet to squeeze every dollar out of btc, you don't let go your golden chicken that easily, this will be a long painful drop to 0.
|
|
|
|
ChartBuddy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2310
Merit: 1801
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
|
|
April 05, 2015, 09:58:43 AM |
|
|
|
|
|
gkv9
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
!!! RiSe aBovE ThE StoRm !!!
|
|
April 05, 2015, 10:11:29 AM |
|
mining cartels are not done yet to squeeze every dollar out of btc, you don't let go your golden chicken that easily, this will be a long painful drop to 0.
Did I misunderstood or you said something that impossible is possible someday???
|
|
|
|
spooderman
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1029
|
|
April 05, 2015, 10:21:28 AM |
|
stop
quoting
stolfi
|
|
|
|
billyjoeallen
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
|
|
April 05, 2015, 10:51:29 AM |
|
Easter pump!
|
|
|
|
DutchTrades
|
|
April 05, 2015, 10:55:32 AM |
|
Easter pump!
Lol, was about to say that
|
|
|
|
12345mm
|
|
April 05, 2015, 10:55:42 AM |
|
i think everyone's visiting family / busy with easter ... seriously i've never seen 15 minute gaps of time on finex go by with 0 sales and 0 buys before ... looks like we'll go ahead and push up while nobody is paying attention though ... because ... why not ... right ? ... it'll be easy with total lack of selling resistance other than bots ...
|
|
|
|
LFC_Bitcoin
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3668
Merit: 10266
#1 VIP Crypto Casino
|
|
April 05, 2015, 10:56:57 AM |
|
Jesus rose from the dead on this day didn't he? Nice little pump, maybe 260 by the end of the day
|
|
|
|
DutchTrades
|
|
April 05, 2015, 10:58:14 AM |
|
The Chinese dont give a fuck about easter.
|
|
|
|
ChartBuddy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2310
Merit: 1801
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
|
|
April 05, 2015, 10:58:43 AM |
|
|
|
|
|
entomology
|
|
April 05, 2015, 10:59:01 AM |
|
toilet back, pump ends...
|
|
|
|
sporket
|
|
April 05, 2015, 11:06:27 AM |
|
Good morning, gentlemen Bitcoiners! See the party's jumpin', the best & the brightest of Bitcoin matchin' wits with Jorge? Think if you all dogpile on him put ur heads together, you'll beat him down somehow? Wisdom of the lynch mob crowd, that sort of thing? Interesting... You boys be careful. Tho the sum total of all you's IQ scoreses may be greater than his, that filthy statist has a card up his sleeve: He went to school was brainwashed while all y'all was huffing gasoline from brown paper bags rebelling against your dad society. Them government stooges don't fight fair
|
|
|
|
|