Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

You mean losing most of your money is a small price to pay for learning how to lose most of your money?

i don't loose anything ... that the difference between FIAT money and BITCOIN unit.

i know the goal of inflation ... and the loose of value of my FIAT money (in 1 year, 1 USD = 1 EUR ... ?!? What a complet joke and loose of worked hour value !)

but like i already say, you don't see the whole picture of Bitcoin system.

>i don't loose anything
That's a good way to look at it. That way, not a single person who 'invested' in bitcoin any shitcoin has lost anything, even when the value of their shitcoin of choice finally hit 0 (zero). They still have the exact same number of shitcoins that they bought.
Lucky them

>the loose of value of my FIAT money
Protip: money is not meant to be an investment. Sure, iit's a meant as a [short-term] store of value, but mainly as a medium of exchange. In short, money is meant "to be used."
On the other hand, it's also not meant to lose most of its value in just a couple of years, Like BTC did. Heck, it just dropped ~ 8 bucks in the past couple of hours, which is also shit.

>the whole picture
As I said, been around bitcoin far longer than you, and would like to say "I probably sold you your first coin," just to be a dick & rub it in.
That would be lying tho, which I try not to do, not unless I really have to. Lying because I was mostly out of BTC by the time you jumped in

You do seem to be a "dick" or at least attempting to appear as if you have some superior point of view or outlook regarding bitcoin, which in the end comes off as patronizing.

If you are bearish about bitcoin, then good for you.  There are various avenues for shorting or just choosing not to invest in BTC or to invest in other things...

I doubt that any of us really can predict with very much accuracy whether that is short or long term, but we can brainstorm about various thoughts and predictions to possibly help us in our own considerations regarding the extent to which we are invested in one thing or another or whether we should diversify more than we are.  Currently I consider that I have about 10% of my quasi-liquid assets in BTC, and surely that number may need to be reassessed from time to time.... and maybe even some actions may need to be taken from time to time because bitcoin does seem to have considerable volatility which may cause a lot of rethinking and/or introspection and perspective.

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[Richy_T]

http://bitcoinclock.com/

bitcoin cost of production doubles on or around 23.07.2016 ... the floor price will get raised in proportion, one way or another.

Bitcoin cost of production just went up 10.44% on the 24th, and will go up by 12.18% in just 9 days. That's almost half of what the block reward halving will do

@shorts will be homeless: stop being such a rude faggot.

More complicated than that. Increasing miner efficiency mitigates that but then there's the cost of upgrading miners to stay in the game...

Also more complicated than saying that the cost of production doubles come the halving. That is not really the same as the reward halving.

Fun & games ahead...

[Richy_T]

We are going back to the original GPU-CPU days economics and BTC pricing model once these become commonplace on shop shelves.

Sadly not. The thing with CPU and, to an extend GPU mining was that they were being produced and sold for general use and the prices were not reflective of their being used for Bitcoin mining (though possibly on the gray market). ASICs have very much been priced according to the idea that manufacturers want a chunk of that sweet, sweet profit and so have been much, much less attractive to the general public. Now that competition is increasing, we may see that wain a little but it will still be a ways away from being dirt cheap.

[peonminer]

If Black Friday was responsible for the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days, perhaps it is because of this offer from PrimeDice? 

Deposit at least 1 BTC and receive 1 BTC for FREE

How could this be for real?  Could they be planning an exit scam?

It's a scam site, not the real primedice.

Bitcoinblackfriday.info is trying to scam people by posting links to fake sites with incredible offers. The links look almost like the real versions, but they have slight differences. There are scam site links mixed together with legit site links to make the scam ones harder to spot.

Theymos has posted a warning about the bitcoinblackfriday.info scam in one of the bitcointalk advertising banners.

I didn't follow their announcements etc. so I don't know much about them. But just by looking at 5 of their top 8 ads:

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/primedice-deposit-at-least-1-btc-and-receive-1-btc-for-free/
links to primedice.io instead of https://primedice.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/trezor-the-hardware-bitcoin-wallet/
links to buy-trezor.com instead of http://buytrezor.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/spondoolies-tech-sp50/
links to sqondoolies-tech.com instead of http://www.spondoolies-tech.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/gyft-25-discount-for-all-gift-cards/
links to appgyft.com instead of https://app.gyft.com

Obvious scam is obvious.

Owner at forums: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=525055

Thanks!

Thanks for the warning. There are legit sites there too.

Hey scammer scumbag, you're a waste of human flesh. 

[Richy_T]

Yeah, tons of variables, too many for me, I conceded that.

Noted. I had not caught up when I made my post. However, some of those variables are important.

The major difference is that increases in hashrate come about because miners, rightly or wrongly, judge that it's in their best interest to increase their hashing capacity. The halving is an an external action, decided by a slightly bemused older gentleman who likes to play with trains.

The major difference, however is to the external market which, as one of your alter egos recently mentioned is accustomed to an inflation rate somewhere in the order of 10% p.a. which will suddenly drop to approx 5% p.a.

In miners' terms, you are broadly correct though. Bitcoins don't suddenly become more expensive. It simply becomes less profitable to mine and for a lot of miners, that means switching off which makes Bitcoin cheaper for the remaining miners. If 10% profit were acceptable now, 10% profit will be acceptable then.

As you say though, tons of variables. Many of which will depend on current price, advances in mining, early pricing in, how much miners will be willing to eat a loss until the next difficulty adjustment, the color of Obama's boxers and many more. They're all important though.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[adamstgBit]

another black friday deal
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1268045.new#new
 

[peonminer]

another black friday deal
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1268045.new#new
 

Will it ship loaded

[Cconvert2G36]

The mining game is pretty simple on the macro level, either the price goes up, or mining power falls as reward decays. The idea that a big group of miners will shut off their machines around the moment of the halving is cute... but I think there are so many variables at play (efficiency, power sources, selling of machines to the public) that any shift will be smoothed, and the difficulty mechanism will do its job.

Above $300, plenty of gear will be profitable post-halving. And if it isn't... it will drop off, but not faster than what is corrected by the adjustment window. As mining gets less profitable, the cheaper way to acquire them becomes the market, which adjusts incentives accordingly.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Richy_T]

The span between reward halving/next difficulty adjustment: Brrrrr.

Yep. I'm actually fairly optimistic but there's a lot that goes into it. I believe the more efficient miners are running at about 33% cost at the moment (or that might be 33% profit. But somewhere in there anyway). That is a fair bit of elbow room. However, the hash rate is climbing rapidly, not all of which will be efficiency gains. I don't think miners are sitting on shelves either so it's likely climbing as fast as it can with what can be bought. Though there's two ways of looking at that. Would producers leave them sitting on shelves inactive, waiting for purchasers or have them running for "testing" (as BFL was often accused of)?

So hashrate will be climbing, price will (might) be climbing. There may be margins or not. There will be people who are willing to mine at a loss (though surely not the majority) just because and perhaps those who will be willing to mine at a loss *for now* in anticipation of higher prices. Then again, if you don't mine, the next difficulty adjustment will move further out and confidence in Bitcoin and hence, probably price will fall. But there's a prisoner's dilemma there. Block size may or may not be an issue still...

I'll be sure to have plenty of popcorn. There won't be another halving like this one.

[Richy_T]

Above $300, plenty of gear will be profitable post-halving. And if it isn't... it will drop off, but not faster than what is corrected by the adjustment window. As mining gets less profitable, the cheaper way to acquire them becomes the market, which adjusts incentives accordingly.

I hope so. And people say things were OK last halving. But I think I noticed in the data that the block time did lengthen out for a while after it happened. I'll have to run the numbers.

The issue isn't obtaining bitcoins though, the issue is the lengthening of the block times and the corresponding drop on the transaction rate which may then cause the price to drop and make mining even more unprofitable which...

[Cconvert2G36]

Above $300, plenty of gear will be profitable post-halving. And if it isn't... it will drop off, but not faster than what is corrected by the adjustment window. As mining gets less profitable, the cheaper way to acquire them becomes the market, which adjusts incentives accordingly.

I hope so. And people say things were OK last halving. But I think I noticed in the data that the block time did lengthen out for a while after it happened. I'll have to run the numbers.

GPU days, pretty sure I ran at a nominal loss for a while there, harvesting heat to compensate. What's old is new again. At least the field was a bit more level back then for the little guys. GPU rigs actually took some maintenance, even if it could be streamlined with scripts and pdu's with ip control.

[marcus_of_augustus]

As mining gets less profitable, the cheaper way to acquire them becomes the market, which adjusts incentives accordingly.

this is the mechanism that puts the effective floor under the bitcoin price. And as long as difficulty keeps rising and halvings keep going the floor keeps rising

It's like a ratchet mechanism, speculators bid it up, miners chase the profit and expand operations, difficulty rises, new floor cost<=>price rises, price drops back to floor cost, miners buy at market, speculators pile back in, miners expand, difficulty rises, rinse, repeat.

[Cconvert2G36]

As mining gets less profitable, the cheaper way to acquire them becomes the market, which adjusts incentives accordingly.

this is the mechanism that puts the effective floor under the bitcoin price. And as long as difficulty keeps rising and halvings keep going the floor keeps rising

It's like a ratchet mechanism, speculators bid it up, miners chase the profit and expand operations, difficulty rises, new floor cost<=>price rises, price drops back to floor cost, miners buy at market, speculators pile back in, miners expand, difficulty rises, rinse, repeat.

This only happens in the face of demand for the product.

Block reward is Bitcoin's manna... to be consumed while the network grows to eat everyone else's lunch. Let's hope we get some action on capacity in 2016, additional capacity from multiple angles.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[teddy5145]

The price seems stable around 350-360 in the past few days
Any chance the price will go back to 320 at this point ?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

http://bitcoinclock.com/

bitcoin cost of production doubles on or around 23.07.2016 ... the floor price will get raised in proportion, one way or another.

Bitcoin cost of production just went up 10.44% on the 24th, and will go up by 12.18% in just 9 days. That's almost half of what the block reward halving will do

@shorts will be homeless: stop being such a rude faggot.

More complicated than that. Increasing miner efficiency mitigates that but then there's the cost of upgrading miners to stay in the game...

Also more complicated than saying that the cost of production doubles come the halving. That is not really the same as the reward halving.

Fun & games ahead...

Yeah, tons of variables, too many for me, I conceded that.

...
yeah, we can go off on tangents re. more efficient gear, amortization schedules, Easter Bunny bringing extra BTC, BTC going up in price, etc., etc.
I'm going on the simplest, "everything being the same" model

@JayJuanGee: Until you learn to figure out what it is you're hoping to say & stop using x5 too many words, I'm afraid this is my last reply.

O.k. newbie

[Cconvert2G36]

Our secret weapon, with no known antidote... badger nlc with jjg, until the will to continue is lost.