Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[becoin]

Just another example of someone "dumbing" their bitcoins...
Now dumpber can't buy their bitcoins back at the level they sold out.
The result: expect $1150 within 48 hours!

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[Chainsaw]

Actually, I was probably the only sane person posting today, which is sad...
The top was near, and now it's profit taking time, who dumps first dumps best.

It's hard to be the bear when everyone else is bullish - thanks for your analysis.

Trying to figure out if we break at this China ATH test, consider:

We have been in a relative long-term ascending wedge - it began 12/20 and we have held within it since.
Typically, ascending wedges break to the downside.
This 2 week pattern broke to the upside last night, against convention.
Last time there was a ~2 week pattern, it was an ascending wedge, and Bitcoin 'broke convention' and broke to the upside.



During rallies, Bitcoin likes to flip into anti-pattern mode for resolution.
It's a cost-benefit thing.
To use a simple anecdote we share, I watched Dissi go from 1st to middle-of-the-pack in bit-sim.trade by making the wrong call about a top, earlier.  I did the same.

When I put the pieces together from a technical standpoint, they tell me we should go down.
When I consider the historical precedent of Bitcoin in similar position in the past...it has chosen exactly these scenarios to defy expectations.

Good luck!

EDIT: I note in the 1m chart that the wedge has since served as a support line (1060.6, 'Finex).

[ErisDiscordia]

Actually, I was probably the only sane person posting today, which is sad...
The top was near, and now it's profit taking time, who dumps first dumps best.

It's hard to be the bear when everyone else is bullish - thanks for your analysis.

Trying to figure out if we break at this China ATH test, consider:

We have been in a relative long-term ascending wedge - it began 12/20 and we have held within it since.
Typically, ascending wedges break to the downside.
This 2 week pattern broke to the upside last night, against convention.
Last time there was a ~2 week pattern, it was an ascending wedge, and Bitcoin 'broke convention' and broke to the upside.



During rallies, Bitcoin likes to flip into anti-pattern mode for resolution.
It's a cost-benefit thing.
To use a simple anecdote we share, I watched Dissi go from 1st to middle-of-the-pack in bit-sim.trade by making the wrong call about a top, earlier.  I did the same.

When I put the pieces together from a technical standpoint, they tell me we should go down.
When I consider the historical precedent of Bitcoin in similar position in the past...it has chosen exactly these scenarios to defy expectations.

Good luck!

Spot-on analysis, Chainsaw!

[Chainsaw]

Spot-on analysis, Chainsaw!

Thanks! We'll see, I guess 

[Tzupy]

Someone is trying to stop this rally:



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/btccny

It will not work.

I believe it will work, just wait another 12 hours. If I'm right, this was just a tiny dump, a larger one should follow in about 12 hours.

But you predicted a pump to about 1100$ on New Year's day. You got up early for it, but it took another four days to go that high. What makes you think you can be so accurate today when your New Years's day prediction was out by four days?

I am expecting, in a couple of hours, the last pump of this rally, taking us to about 1100$, spending a couple of days there before crashing 40%.
To be sure of catching it, I had to wake up early on the 1st January, grrr...

If it does crash I think it will be a small correction, not a 40% correction. It could carry on up past the Gox ATH without many downs.

When I predicted the last pump to about 1100$ I didn't claim it would happen in 1 day (or other time frame), so I wasn't "out by four days".
If the next larger dump will happen in about 12 hours, then I expect the Chinese to build a large triangle that should break, probably down, in another 4 - 5 days.
And the 40% correction is the whole ABC, the A and C should be each about 30%.

[razorramon]

we are in historic territory and it very much looks like we will see a new ATH very soon...

funds at bfx are compared to scenarios in the past very bearish (which is actually VERY bullish in my opinion)

whatever will happen, it is very exciting and everybody who is into bitcoin should feel very lucky

[Ted E. Bare]

Who sold at the bottom?

[Fakhoury]

Here we go again... $1050USD at Bitcoinaverage. That's $1410CAD. another new ATH.

Yahoo.

Do you really feel it brother ?

I don't know why we don't feel it amazing anymore :S !!

Oh yes, I feel it.

I don't find it amazing though because I expected this.

I find it satisfying to finally get some concrete returns on my unfaltering belief in the future of Bitcoin.

We bulls took a fair bit of flak back in 2014-5 while the bears had their little picnic, but some of us knew what was coming, held steadfastly during the down times, bought more coins as the prices fell, and even laughed at the cock-sureness of the bears (remember Karhu?) as we accumulated.

The teddy bears had their little picnic (see them gaily gad about) back then, but look who's partying now.

Cheers bro. You were always a fearless bull, never wimped out and became a bear. Enjoy the time.

Thanks for your kind words brother.

Maybe because I want to see and expecting as well $3k-$4k ?

The returns so far is satisfying as you said, but maybe I know so well that Bitcoin is till extremely undervalued ?

I dunno tbh.

[Actualiteit]

tbh I'm happy someone pulled the brakes a little bit. I understand a lot of people want to go full sonic "gotta go fast" on this bullrun but I'd rather see an easygoing constant rise without the insane volatility, panic and hysteria that results from it.

[edgar]

1.08560 USD / mBTC

[Elwar]

The previous bubbles started with a doubling of the price within a month. Looks like the low hit $787 in the past 3 days. If the price is over $1,500 by January 19-20th then it will be over $3k near the beginning of February and then $6k a week later. (If history is any indicator)

We have 15 days for the price to go up by around $400. That's an average of $25 per day. If that happens we shoot up to $6k 3 weeks later if we experience the same thing as previous run ups. Then probably a "crash" to $4,000 as it slowly returns to the $2,000 range.

[JimboToronto]

An early good morning Bitcoinland.

Quite the night I see. We even had a nice mini-correction with requisite immediate bounce-back to keep it honest.

Net result... $1093USD at Bitcoinaverage, $1457CAD after touching $1473, a new ATH.

How long before a real correction? Daily ATHs are fun but unsustainable. An occasional red candle would be a healthy change.

[lightfoot]

I have a problem with this price rise:

As many people know, I fix people's bitcoin miners for bitcoin payments. Thus I have to account for my time, skills, experience, and material costs (damn FPGAs are expensive when they blow up). I price my work in bitcoin because I want this currency to have a reason to exist other than as a speculation thingie.

Problem is the fluctuations: If I charge .3btc for a service and bitcoin drops from 600 to 300 I don't want to raise my bitcoin prices so I kept them constant. Likewise if it goes from 600-1200 I don't want to change my prices for the same basic reason (I'm doing work for a certain amount of bitcoin). But if it keeps going haywire, what do I do? What's fair? And at what point am I simply doing work for dollars instead of Bitcoin?

It's complex.

[Meuh6879]

More fast than ever ...

[spooderman]

i guess just lower them a bit in accordance with your gut feeling about the "new low".

if you needed something more sustainable and reliable as a business person i'd guess you'd be charging the BTC equivalent of a fixed dollar amount which you're not doing which implies a certain amount of flexibility is possible for you.

[rtrtcrypto]

Just charge in dollars and accept payment in BTC with a window of a few hrs after the job is complete.
That way you can always charge the same for the job and no one will feel like they over or underpaid.

I have a problem with this price rise:

As many people know, I fix people's bitcoin miners for bitcoin payments. Thus I have to account for my time, skills, experience, and material costs (damn FPGAs are expensive when they blow up). I price my work in bitcoin because I want this currency to have a reason to exist other than as a speculation thingie.

Problem is the fluctuations: If I charge .3btc for a service and bitcoin drops from 600 to 300 I don't want to raise my bitcoin prices so I kept them constant. Likewise if it goes from 600-1200 I don't want to change my prices for the same basic reason (I'm doing work for a certain amount of bitcoin). But if it keeps going haywire, what do I do? What's fair? And at what point am I simply doing work for dollars instead of Bitcoin?

It's complex.

[ErisDiscordia]

I have a problem with this price rise:

As many people know, I fix people's bitcoin miners for bitcoin payments. Thus I have to account for my time, skills, experience, and material costs (damn FPGAs are expensive when they blow up). I price my work in bitcoin because I want this currency to have a reason to exist other than as a speculation thingie.

Problem is the fluctuations: If I charge .3btc for a service and bitcoin drops from 600 to 300 I don't want to raise my bitcoin prices so I kept them constant. Likewise if it goes from 600-1200 I don't want to change my prices for the same basic reason (I'm doing work for a certain amount of bitcoin). But if it keeps going haywire, what do I do? What's fair? And at what point am I simply doing work for dollars instead of Bitcoin?

It's complex.

Not at all. Bitcoin is a fixed supply currency with deflationary effects. In an economy based around such a currency, prices tend to go down. It just seems strange and counter-intuitive, because all anyone here including Jimbo has ever known is an economy based around an inflationary currency, where prices tend to go up.

Just lower the price in BTC

[MinermanNC]

I have a problem with this price rise:

As many people know, I fix people's bitcoin miners for bitcoin payments. Thus I have to account for my time, skills, experience, and material costs (damn FPGAs are expensive when they blow up). I price my work in bitcoin because I want this currency to have a reason to exist other than as a speculation thingie.

Problem is the fluctuations: If I charge .3btc for a service and bitcoin drops from 600 to 300 I don't want to raise my bitcoin prices so I kept them constant. Likewise if it goes from 600-1200 I don't want to change my prices for the same basic reason (I'm doing work for a certain amount of bitcoin). But if it keeps going haywire, what do I do? What's fair? And at what point am I simply doing work for dollars instead of Bitcoin?

It's complex.

GM! 1100.00 anyone?  

Ya if you keep your fixed BTC rate your customers will go pay cash somewhere else.... cheaper than the fixed rate in BTC. Somewhere along the line you do need to compensate for your rates when BTC was low and you took the hit. I would reward myself a little extra for as long as you can, after all, the miners you maintain would not benefit the owners if they were not running  

[HI-TEC99]

I have a problem with this price rise:

As many people know, I fix people's bitcoin miners for bitcoin payments. Thus I have to account for my time, skills, experience, and material costs (damn FPGAs are expensive when they blow up). I price my work in bitcoin because I want this currency to have a reason to exist other than as a speculation thingie.

Problem is the fluctuations: If I charge .3btc for a service and bitcoin drops from 600 to 300 I don't want to raise my bitcoin prices so I kept them constant. Likewise if it goes from 600-1200 I don't want to change my prices for the same basic reason (I'm doing work for a certain amount of bitcoin). But if it keeps going haywire, what do I do? What's fair? And at what point am I simply doing work for dollars instead of Bitcoin?

It's complex.

GM! 1100.00 anyone?  

Ya if you keep your fixed BTC rate your customers will go pay cash somewhere else.... cheaper than the fixed rate in BTC. Somewhere along the line you do need to compensate for your rates when BTC was low and you took the hit. I would reward myself a little extra for as long as you can, after all, the miners you maintain would not benefit the owners if they were not running  

He could charge in dollars though bitpay, and keep the Bitcoin as long as the price keeps rising. If the price starts falling he could receive in dollars and buy back Bitcoins during the dips. Or he could choose what percentage to receive in Bitcoin, and what percentage to receive in dollars.

There is the risk Bitpay could get hacked again though.

https://help.bitpay.com/getting-paid/bitcoin-settlement

Enter your bitcoin address name and the bitcoin address, then select your settlement percentage (how much of your settlements you would like to receive in form of bitcoin). Then click "Save."

[bitcoinminer42]

plz give your votes for the next ATH stop 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1739276