Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Tzupy]

Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.

Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.

China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.

I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long.

You still think we have further to go down?

I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking.

Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping.

At last the Chinese dumped (as usually, started at 3.45 am my time, while I was asleep), probably completed the second leg down of A. This took too long and almost made me believe it was truncated.
If I am right and the third leg down is to come, resistance moved to about 6300 CNY. I am expecting a small bounce into that resistance, and sideways for two days, then the third leg down.

Right when the market was at an inflection point, ready to take the plunge and confirm the third leg down, a LTC pump started and BTC followed soon, so I don't know which way...

The market has slowed down, and the Chinese established a critical support at 6100 CNY. If this will be broken, which could happen tomorrow, then the third leg down will be confirmed and A would end soon.

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[Killerpotleaf]

we'll see a Big move tonight, maybe above 1000$ again.

i guess that means you altcoiners will get to pick up your altcoins on the cheap?

based on what facts you say this about tonight?

i've been keeping track of shorts, they appear to have saturated.

[jbreher]

I haven't sold any in a long time. I think I may sell a few if we can get back to around $1100. Will buy back more if we get into $800s

This.
Why the next pump will fall short. All the peoples that feel they missed out on the last peak will dump as soon as they can.

A couple of days ago -- when we were in the $1100's -- I moved ~1% of my stash to an exchange, setting up a laddered day trading scheme. Some sells executed. First divestiture I made since the great runup of 2013.

.

.

.

.

No, it was not enough to explain the crash. Either time.

::le sigh::

FWIW, I re-bought on the way down.

[jbreher]

Perhaps everyone here thinks that we are currently replaying October 2013 and haven't even made it to November yet?

Pretty much this^.

[Tzupy]

Perhaps everyone here thinks that we are currently replaying October 2013 and haven't even made it to November yet?

Pretty much this^.

Not everyone. I think we could be replaying August 17th 2012.

[Ted E. Bare]

I don't get why people compare today with late 2013. Wasn't the situation completely different then? Bitcoin is much more mature and look at the surrounding infrastructure; exchanges, etc. Whole different ball game.

[European Central Bank]

I don't get why people compare today with late 2013. Wasn't the situation completely different then? Bitcoin is much more mature and look at the surrounding infrastructure; exchanges, etc. Whole different ball game.

is it really that different? thankfully gox is gone. still got the same chinese exchanges. most of the western ones are the same with some new players like gemini that no one seems to use very much. there's more margin madness. adoption hasn't exploded in any way at all.

it's come on a little bit but really it's a bit more evolution and nowhere near revolution.

[jbreher]

Perhaps everyone here thinks that we are currently replaying October 2013 and haven't even made it to November yet?

Pretty much this^.

Not everyone. I think we could be replaying August 17th 2012.

Yeah, but you're bearish more often than not. I remain convinced that Bitcoin is a long-term successful moonshot. I remain serene in the face of crashes. Is now analogous to Oct 2013? Frankly, I have no idea. But it could be. More importantly, some time in the not-too distant future will be analogous to Oct 2013.

In the meantime, I await -- seated comfortably at my pick-a-nick table -- awaiting mah fine and glorious repast.

[PoolMinor]

Now people are realizing the China bans bitcoin story was bullshit there's a chance bitcoin might slowly cycle upwards for some time. History tells us bitcoin crashes when rumors of a Chinese bitcoin ban start, then recovers from the crash when people realize the rumors were false and China hasn't banned bitcoin.


[imm]https://cointelegraph.com/images/725_Ly9jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS9zdG9yYWdlL3VwbG9hZHMvdmlldy84NWYzNDAxOTZhZjgyOWUyZjNiNTE0NDgwNWVkOTkxMi5qcGc=.jpg[/img]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/media-spread-wrong-china-bans-bitcoin-narrative-causing-bitcoin-price-slump

Recently, the Chinese government and the People’s Bank of China offered reasonable suggestions to Bitcoin exchanges and users, discouraging fake volumes and offline scam-like promotions while asking users to maintain responsibility for their independent actions.

But some media outlets, mostly western-based, used the events to spread panic among Chinese investors, leading the price of Bitcoin down to $830.

I think blaming the media for this correction is far fetched at best. The correction was due. Quit trying to blame someone for it.

[Killerpotleaf]

all the altcoin are about to appear cheaper but in fact be more expensive.


dump them.

[JayJuanGee]

I haven't sold any in a long time. I think I may sell a few if we can get back to around $1100. Will buy back more if we get into $800s

This.
Why the next pump will fall short. All the peoples that feel they missed out on the last peak will dump as soon as they can.

A couple of days ago -- when we were in the $1100's -- I moved ~1% of my stash to an exchange, setting up a laddered day trading scheme. Some sells executed. First divestiture I made since the great runup of 2013.



.

.

.

.

No, it was not enough to explain the crash. Either time.

::le sigh::

FWIW, I re-bought on the way down.

Only 1%... hahahahahahaha...

You may even be more of a bull than me.    

As you may recall, my sells are staggered, so I am not really selling at the top... even though maybe that would be a better strategy, but I had gotten up to nearly 9% in fiat at one point in the $1100s.. which was making me nervous to have so much of my allocation in fiat and appearing to "not be working" capital.

[Tzupy]

Perhaps everyone here thinks that we are currently replaying October 2013 and haven't even made it to November yet?

Pretty much this^.

Not everyone. I think we could be replaying August 17th 2012.

Yeah, but you're bearish more often than not. I remain convinced that Bitcoin is a long-term successful moonshot. I remain serene in the face of crashes. Is now analogous to Oct 2013? Frankly, I have no idea. But it could be. More importantly, some time in the not-too distant future will be analogous to Oct 2013.

In the meantime, I await -- seated comfortably at my pick-a-nick table -- awaiting mah fine and glorious repast.

If you would think deeper about what I said, you would understand how bullish I am long term. Hint: what price was in August 2012 and what price in October 2013?

[keyboard warrior]

Now people are realizing the China bans bitcoin story was bullshit there's a chance bitcoin might slowly cycle upwards for some time. History tells us bitcoin crashes when rumors of a Chinese bitcoin ban start, then recovers from the crash when people realize the rumors were false and China hasn't banned bitcoin.




https://cointelegraph.com/news/media-spread-wrong-china-bans-bitcoin-narrative-causing-bitcoin-price-slump

Recently, the Chinese government and the People’s Bank of China offered reasonable suggestions to Bitcoin exchanges and users, discouraging fake volumes and offline scam-like promotions while asking users to maintain responsibility for their independent actions.

But some media outlets, mostly western-based, used the events to spread panic among Chinese investors, leading the price of Bitcoin down to $830.

I think blaming the media for this correction is far fetched at best. The correction was due. Quit trying to blame someone for it.

Despite the fact the correction was due, the media created some China bans bitcoin hysteria at exactly the same time as the correction. It most likely drove the price down further, and for longer than it would have done.

The first time the China bans bitcoin story was published in 2014 it undoubtedly caused a massive crash. This time it might not have caused the crash, but it put people off buying back in until they were sure it was bullshit.

[notme]

Despite the fact the correction was due, the media created some China bans bitcoin hysteria at exactly the same time as the correction. It most likely drove the price down further, and for longer than it would have done.

The first time the China bans bitcoin story was published in 2014 it undoubtedly caused a massive crash. This time it might not have caused the crash, but it put people off buying back in until they were sure it was bullshit.

Crashes cause news as people try to rationalize price action.  News doesn't cause crashes.  If price hadn't been falling, people would have taken the time to understand it was BS before they spread it.  But they didn't because it was a narrative that fit what they were seeing in the markets.

[K~Ehleyr]

all the altcoin are about to appear cheaper but in fact be more expensive.


dump them.

If you mean the price of Bitcoin is going to rise, I wish it would hurry up about it!

[Killerpotleaf]

[uhoh]

[r0ach]

I remain convinced that Bitcoin is a long-term successful moonshot.

Yea, that's the problem.  The only way Bitcoin can be a guaranteed moonshot is if the plan of governments is to allow it to grow then co-opt it after and turn it into their cashless society slave system.  They'll create a fixed address, alias system wrapper with your name tag on it to go around Bitcoin and force you to use it or you'll be considered a criminal launderer.  We've already seen hints of this action with things like chain anchor.

Chain anchor was the direct approach and it failed (so far).  Next they'll figure out they don't actually have to modify the Bitcoin client and can just make their own that wraps around Bitcoin and legally force you to use it.  They will then wait until the majority of the population is herded into the system and then use the wrap around client to divorce themselves away from a finite, native Bitcoin unit and just turn it into the same fiat system that already exists except with the added bonus of cash being abolished and all transactions are tracked with your money automatically being stolen or redistributed to wherever they want.

They're already floating this propaganda now that with the "rise of robotics" causing unemployment, a Marxist slave system run by technocrats is required for humans to exist.  The only type of functional collectivist systems to ever exist are ones where people share the same genes like in a family unit or as seen in prisons where people form a bloc for common interests.  Tossing the mass of humanity into a big Marxist system always ends in collapse and mass death.

Don't get me wrong, you will probably be able to make some money on the ride towards this obvious endgame, but I give odds of around 10% that cryptocurrency turns out good in some way for humanity, and 90% chance it ends in the above dystopian scenario, co-opted by government and run by a bunch of people with the last name Goldstein.

I own gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and every time I see Bitcoin go up, it makes me equally happy for increasing purchasing power, and frightened since I already know what the most likely outcome is.

[sirazimuth]

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-triple-2017-saxo-bank-prediction/ What do you guys think of this news?
Is there a possibility of this prediction to come true?

yes. or it could be $2 or $200,000. most experts were predicting $4000 plus for 2014. that didn't quite happen.

I was predicting a price of $750 for January 1 back in 2015.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1309383.0

 

your  post predicting $750 on jan 1st 2017 was dated dec 30 2015, so fer shitz n giggles i looked up price for that day ....$433.00

holy shit man!! youre good!!




then again your spot on prediction as of today could turn out wrong... we got another 3 weeks for price to go haywire... this is bitcoin after all.
though i tend to believe come the 1st of year ..you nailed it dude.

ok so i got one thing right .........the price went haywire...about as impressive as being correct in predicting the suns comin up in the morning...

[JimboToronto]

Another day done (UTC) and another short green candle.



That's 2 green candles in a row and a pretty good indicator to me that we may be done with our little period of manipulation/correction/profit-taking/panic (or whatever you choose to call it) and we're ready to continue the upward trend, but at a little less frantic pace.

Hopefully everyone stocked up on cheap coins during the buying opportunity.