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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 10 (6.6%)
H2 2019 - 15 (9.9%)
H1 2020 - 29 (19.1%)
H2 2020 - 28 (18.4%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.9%)
H2 2021 - 30 (19.7%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.9%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (2%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.9%)
Total Voters: 152

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21290159 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
RAJSALLIN
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January 11, 2017, 08:12:24 PM


WAR ON CHINA NOW!!



No we should thank them. They are cleaning up their exchanges and at the same time the risk of China baning bitcoin is highly reduced. If you wanted bitcoin to ever succeed this was the best that could happen imo

Care to elaborate please ?

Well, I think the market has been worried of a full ban by China. China making bitcoin illegal or in some other way putting in some kind of ban to reduce capital flight. If the Chinese governement actively seek to control the exchanges in order to make them comply there isn't any reason for them to clamp down further. Yes there will be less capital flight buying but since that was anyhow a zero sum buy/sell it probably won't make a difference. What the Chinese can still do is buy bitcoin as a store of value and that has the potential to drive the price much higher.

Then we had the risk of these rogue exchanges being used to manipulate the price (both up and down) which was bad for volatility and overall trust in btc.

Finally there is the point of the SEC that I mentioned.
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mattimann
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January 11, 2017, 08:14:33 PM

Just sending fiat to an exchange hehe.
If it goes below 500$ I'll buy half a dozen btc. Well, I would buy at this price too, it's just I have to wait fore the prehistoric wire transfer.
Someone knows a way to instantly buy btc? (Not localbitcoins).

https://coinatmradar.com/countries/

Be prepared to comparison-shop. Rates vary considerably. Where I live they range from 1% to over 15%.


Thanks for this jimbo. There are 2 within 20 mins drive from me.

I never knew this.


You can buy instantly via Credit Card at Stamp.
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January 11, 2017, 08:18:57 PM


WAR ON CHINA NOW!!



No we should thank them. They are cleaning up their exchanges and at the same time the risk of China baning bitcoin is highly reduced. If you wanted bitcoin to ever succeed this was the best that could happen imo

Care to elaborate please ?

Sure..

Nothing that comes out of china can be believed.. Not their news, not their fiat exchange rates, not their crypto exchange rates or the action of their exchanges in the market.. Maybe not even their miners?

What does china do?
They do everything they can to make people THINK that they have this great massive influence, make people believe that china is in control with their grandiose claims..

And then what? Use their exaggerated influence to MANIPULATE..
Their actual pull is much less than they make it out to be..
I wouldn't even put it past the chinese gov or the pboc to be IN ON IT because everything about the entire chinese economy is FAKE..
Propaganda..

This manipulation is bad for bitcoin.. No matter the end result, price this extreme volitility scares everyone away... This extreme volitility is also terrible for use as a currency..

The other day I said "when does BTC ever loose half it's value overnight?"
Now, it does..

Another thing..
I'm not sure of taking a side of segwit or whatever but, if segwit is what we need look who's stopping it.. China, that's who..
The greedy miners that just want ROI..
 
You know their mining advantage comes entirely from the fact that they don't mind dumping into and polluting their country by way of ground and the entire world by way of air..

They don't give a fuck how bad they fuck shit up to make the cheapest electricity possible..
They don't give a fuck how bad they fuck shit up to make the cheapest planned obsolescence electronics such as miners not to mention everything else they sell/export that is nothing but garbage in 1 year or so if that..

It is too bad that bitcoin has managed to get itself caught up in this terrible china game..

Not just bitcoin, the whole world..

Trump's trade war NOW!!
Maybe they will even give us the chance to embarrass their chincy china military..

They are sitting too many notches too high on the global pegboard and need to be taken down a few rungs including their current manipulated false influence and set them back a ways to learn their lesson..

We need to kick this toxic china influence OUT of our grand experiment of the people's financial liberty..

I hope china bans bitcoin once and for all..

China GTFO..

You think china wants anything to do with personal liberty? Think again..
This could even be a chinese special ops tactic to destroy bitcoin..

Wayyy too much perceived and otherwise justifiable influence by dirty actors..
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January 11, 2017, 08:20:22 PM

The psychology is remarkable. So many willing buyers at 1100, but at 35% discount the same folks flip out. This is why 80%+ traders are losers. RSI is way oversold, could drop a little more but not much before a significant bounce.

Well I don't think that it is anything to be judgmental about.. it is just the way people are if they do not already have a preset system in place... and even if you have a system in place, it is very tempting to lapse into that kind of losing trading to follow the momentum, and then get screwed by buying at the top and selling at the bottom

Just sending fiat to an exchange hehe.
If it goes below 500$ I'll buy half a dozen btc. Well, I would buy at this price too, it's just I have to wait fore the prehistoric wire transfer.
Someone knows a way to instantly buy btc? (Not localbitcoins).

That is why you have to have your various systems set up in advance, even if you may not use them until you feel that the time is right (like now)..
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January 11, 2017, 08:23:11 PM

I don't think market behaviour like this will look too impressive to the SEC pondering ETFs right now. Bitcoin has lifted her skirt to reveal a sloppy pussy, or double dick arrangement, or even BOTH.


I put a hope on the "auto-approval".

Could very well be a chinese tactic to try to stop it from happening..
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January 11, 2017, 08:25:22 PM

disclaimer:

just woke up...

i lost huge Sad

 Grin

but i agree with the fact that their impact is overestimated.
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January 11, 2017, 08:26:59 PM

This is certainly a "buyable" dip, yet the only question is at what point(s) to lock in the buy(s).

All my buys are already locked in. I buy straight into paper wallets and have no desire to sell any unless I absolutely must.

My bitcoins are my nest egg for comfort in my old age. When they hit $10k I might spend my original investment on something cool.

Any real deep dip is buyable to me, as long as it's not just a correction to where it was a day or two earlier.

For example, this past week has had 3 buyable dips, after about 2 months without one. The last one was November 3.

If the price keeps going down, I'll keep reallocating funds to buy more.
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January 11, 2017, 08:34:13 PM

God knows how someone who hodls a huge amount is feeling. I have a reasonable amount and it hurts even though I don't trade or plan to sell anytime soon.

It always feels bad when the price drops exorbitantly, and if you are prudent, in any kind of way, you are not investing more than you can afford to lose... right?

On the other hand, if you are gambling, and investing more than you can afford to lose, then you are going to feel a lot more stress about these kinds of situations that are actually within the realm of expectations.

No JJG. I have invested only what I can afford to lose. It in no way affects my family.

Still a bit of a kick in the balls though.

When I was using the word "you", I was not referring to "you" specifically but just referring to the "someone who holds huge amounts" that you referred to.   In that regards, I think that very similar principles apply whether you hold "huge amounts" or smaller amounts.  Of course, anyone who holds "huge amounts" should also be engaging in various kinds of hedging practices in order to protect from some of the anticipated bitcoin volatility.
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January 11, 2017, 08:35:19 PM

Yes there will be less capital flight buying but since that was anyhow a zero sum buy/sell it probably won't make a difference. What the Chinese can still do is buy bitcoin as a store of value and that has the potential to drive the price much higher.


The BTCC CEO said it's unlikely bitcoin is a big route for capital flight out of China because of all the fees involved in buying bitcoin, withdrawing it, then selling it abroad, and withdrawing fiat.

He says it's more store of value to hedge against the crashing Yuan. When Trump gets into power there is speculation his high import tax of Chinese goods policy could devalue the Yuan further, which could pump bitcoin further.
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January 11, 2017, 08:35:52 PM

Wow, what an incredibly disappointing day! Lost an absolute ton. Exciting though...
RAJSALLIN
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January 11, 2017, 08:38:15 PM

Yes there will be less capital flight buying but since that was anyhow a zero sum buy/sell it probably won't make a difference. What the Chinese can still do is buy bitcoin as a store of value and that has the potential to drive the price much higher.


The BTCC CEO said it's unlikely bitcoin is a big route for capital flight in China because of all the fees involved in buying bitcoin, withdrawing it, then selling it abroad, and withdrawing fiat.

He says it's more store of value to hedge against the crashing Yuan. When Trump gets into power there is speculation his high import tax of Chinese goods policy could devalue the Yuan further, which could pump bitcoin further.

I agree with this.
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January 11, 2017, 08:41:25 PM

disclaimer:

just woke up...

i lost huge Sad

 Grin

but i agree with the fact that their impact is overestimated.

Lost just over half of the BTC I made on the pump..

shrugs..
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January 11, 2017, 08:46:30 PM

here we go  Cool
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January 11, 2017, 08:49:38 PM

Super exciting day for me. I got fiat on the way to buy back what I sold earlier, got people wanting to buy, people wanting to sell, and not enough liquidity to cover it all. Let's do this again!
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January 11, 2017, 09:30:40 PM

disclaimer:

just woke up...

i lost huge Sad

 Grin

but i agree with the fact that their impact is overestimated.

Lost just over half of the BTC I made on the pump..

shrugs..

You mean that you lost the fiat value of your BTC?  You did not lose actual BTC because of a price drop?

  A drop in the price of BTC should result in having more BTC, rather than less, and contrary a rise in the price of BTC should result in having more fiat, no?
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January 11, 2017, 09:40:51 PM
Last edit: January 11, 2017, 09:55:19 PM by toknormal


Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything Wink

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January 11, 2017, 09:52:11 PM

Interesting observation toknormal, thanks for sharing.

So basically you are calling bottom. Correct?
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January 11, 2017, 09:58:20 PM

This is certainly a "buyable" dip, yet the only question is at what point(s) to lock in the buy(s).

All my buys are already locked in. I buy straight into paper wallets and have no desire to sell any unless I absolutely must.

My bitcoins are my nest egg for comfort in my old age. When they hit $10k I might spend my original investment on something cool.

Any real deep dip is buyable to me, as long as it's not just a correction to where it was a day or two earlier.

For example, this past week has had 3 buyable dips, after about 2 months without one. The last one was November 3.

If the price keeps going down, I'll keep reallocating funds to buy more.

I completely agree with your overall philosophy, and I think that it is a pretty solid one in bitcoin...

I am only quibbling a bit with which price points to determine buying..... and yeah, with everyone they are going to determine this in a bit of a different way depending on their own personal particulars.

For example, in the past week prices dipped by nearly $400 - so each time there is a kind of leg of a dip, which is buyable.  I believe that this current one is about the fifth leg down (sure others calculate these legs a bit differently, depending on your ability to buy immediately or even which buy avenues that you have at your disposal).  

In my cases, I have preset staggered buy downs that are currently about $20 intervals, but when I see a dramatic decrease in the price I sometimes will buy an additional amount immediately at various price points that I believe could be in the neighborhood of the bottom for that "dip".   But if the price continues to go down, I like to have additional dollars to buy more.... and my quibbling with you is merely to assert that there can be some dilemna and indecision in attempt to determine at what stages buy "dips"
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January 11, 2017, 10:01:46 PM

what price do you poeple believe we'll "stabilize" on, assuming this madness eventually stops..
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January 11, 2017, 10:02:13 PM


So basically you are calling bottom. Correct?

Well according to this analysis the bottom is around 5200, with a sharp retrace back up to the propellor "nose" which would be around 6700 CNY (~$900-$950 dollars), followed by a slow retrace back down to half the lower propellor blade (5900 CNY = $750) and then starting the next bubble from there which may go to $2000 by July.

Of course, that's just according to this analysis. You need to look at several different perspectives to get a fuller picture of the possibilities because there's no telling if this pattern will be broken or not.

It's one theory = we can follow it and see.
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