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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21331298 times)
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becoin
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January 23, 2017, 02:43:47 PM

No, bitcoin does not need fungability to have value.  

No. Bitcoin does need to be fungible if it wants to be money!
If it is not fungible people will start using another coin as money and bitcoin will lose its value!
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JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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January 23, 2017, 02:54:17 PM

i do expect that the price of bitcoin will trade betweem $850 and $950 for some time,

I don't think so. Too many people want to have at least one bitcoin.

true, and not even every millionaire (denominated in $) could have one. there are more millionaires existing than bitcoin.


I understand your point, but What a silly one, no?   At today's prices, as I type, a million dollars could get you about 1,093 bitcoins, but if you have a million to invest, you might need to diversify a little bit, no?

Frequently, I mention to people who might be skeptical about bitcoins, that 1% to 10% of your quasi-liquid investment funds could be reasonable to invest in bitcoin, but if you happen to be fairly skeptical and skittish about today's prices, then maybe you would feel comfortable with only 1% in bitcoin, and all those variations seem reasonable.  So, at today's prices, a person who has $1million to invest but is fairly sceptical about bitcoins could still get 10.93 bitcoins... in other words, what seems to be your point, 600watt, those millionaires should act now, while the price is seemingly reasonable in a globally distributed mindset and while supplies last (before everyone else finds out the value of bitcoin).

my point is that even today, hell, even if bitcoin price tanks to $100 - no matter what price - not every existing millionaire can have one bitcoin. even if all existing btc hodlers would sell all their coins. there is no theoretical way possible, because there are more millionaires than bitcoins. to me this is an interesting fact, to lots of others it seems silly. i don´t understand why people get so itchy about it.  Smiley  

edit: hodlers

This is interesting. I tried to find some data and decent information about the numbers of millionaires around the globe and found this article from mid 2015...

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/06/24/how-many-millionaires-in-the-world-it-depends.html

So depending which source you take, the number of millionaires at that time was around 14.5 to 35 million.
In addition to that there are ~1800 billionaires!
So hodl your coins guys!! Smiley



I personally believe that the best measurement of wealth is to take all net assets that a person has and add them all up to determine whether the person is a millionaire (that is net worth); however, some folks have a much more liquid set of holdings than others, but that should not take away from their status regarding how much wealth they do have.

If a person is really wealthy in non-liquid assets, they are not going to be much of an investor because a large portion of their liquid is then going to be tied up just for daily living expenses, etc.

We likely need some term that is between millionnaire and billionnaire, anyhow because through inflation of the dollar, it has become a bit too easy to become a millionnaire, but it does not mean the same that it did 20 years ago.  With the inflation of recent times, maybe having $10 million in wealth would have a bit more of a meaningful significance as compared with the mere millionnaire status.

Finally, I do understand the point about not every millionnaire or whatever can have a whole bitcoin, but it still remains a bit of a silly point to me... because there are a lot of things that not everyone can have and it becomes a kind of so what, even if it is making a point about upside price potential of BTC when we already have some folks hoarding 100s or even thousands of coins, and other folks with a much smaller means, of course, struggling to build up their bitcoin holdings to even one coin (I doubt that all of those strugglers are teenagers, too)
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January 23, 2017, 03:19:45 PM




hey all... i'm seeing btc between $1000 and $2400 first half of the year due to china unable to short or stop btc from rising when they yell stop pumping btc.... china is barely able to keep btc under $1000...the chinese mega whale almost got called at $1150.... the breakout will happen . .. china is panicking over price of bitcoin.
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January 23, 2017, 03:21:15 PM

i think people who sensationalize a scalabilty problem should reevaluate the facts !  Cool

This is nonsense.  The only reason you can type such a thing right now is because nobody has been priced out of on-chain transactions yet.  As soon as that happens (which is definitely not far away), that's when bitcoin hits a wall due to what I said here:

A settlement layer has to compete with or beat gold as a store of value.  Bitcoin cannot accomplish that task so it has to do something else besides being a settlement layer or there is no point!

This is the gorilla in the room.  It turns out Roger Ver is wrong because slightly bigger blocks solves nothing.  Bitcoin would require a full blown LN capacity or it doesn't really have a value proposition.

There are also alternative scenarios. For me, a possible solution of the scalability problem would be:

- LN for microtransactions - for very low amounts, it seems to offer an acceptable grade of centralization.
- a higher block size than today. I have made a (naive) calculation that 1 TB of blockchain space per year (~20 MB blocks, ~6 per hour like in BTC today) could handle ~325 million transactions per month - could be enough for about 50 to 100 million households if they use LN for microtransactions. That should be achievable in the medium term.
- multiple competing blockchains which are able to inter-operate with a form of atomic cross-chain trading.

This scenario would enable us to use on-chain transactions for all medium sized payments.
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January 23, 2017, 04:46:44 PM

No, bitcoin does not need fungability to have value.  

No. Bitcoin does need to be fungible if it wants to be money!
If it is not fungible people will start using another coin as money and bitcoin will lose its value!

Well the reason you are wrong is because you falsely conclude that ANY of bitcoins value today is because it "might" be as fungible as money in the future.

It 100% IS NOT as fungible as money today and never has been in the past.

I can assure you that bitcoin is not going to lose value on fungibility issues because it has always been as fungible as it has ever needed to be.
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January 23, 2017, 05:11:22 PM
Last edit: January 23, 2017, 05:26:44 PM by Elwar

Fiat is not fungible.

As long as money laundering laws make one stack of cash more valuable than another stack of cash it is not fungible.



Also: Bitcoin is money.
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January 23, 2017, 05:16:16 PM

The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.
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January 23, 2017, 05:28:42 PM

The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.

quoting because i doubt either of these scenarios.

my hunch is a smaller dump back into high 800s.
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January 23, 2017, 05:54:45 PM


We likely need some term that is between millionnaire and billionnaire, anyhow because through inflation of the dollar, it has become a bit too easy to become a millionnaire, but it does not mean the same that it did 20 years ago.  With the inflation of recent times, maybe having $10 million in wealth would have a bit more of a meaningful significance as compared with the mere millionnaire status.

Finally, I do understand the point about not every millionnaire or whatever can have a whole bitcoin, but it still remains a bit of a silly point to me... because there are a lot of things that not everyone can have and it becomes a kind of so what, even if it is making a point about upside price potential of BTC when we already have some folks hoarding 100s or even thousands of coins, and other folks with a much smaller means, of course, struggling to build up their bitcoin holdings to even one coin (I doubt that all of those strugglers are teenagers, too)


Good writeup.
Few points in addition:
1. In US, you have to have $6.8 mil to be in 1% by wealth, $400000-500000/year household salary to be that in salary department.
However, worldwide, your household has to make just above $32000 to be in 1% world-wide, but in US you would be below average (average is $52K).
2. having $1 mil in liquid assets in US is nice, but it would definitely not make you rich by any stretch of imagination.
3. reddit has an interesting blurb about push in establishing "crime of unexplained wealth". I can only imagine how difficult it would be to "explain" your wealth if bitcoin is over 40K, which is very realistic. People with even small incomes could have large gains if they bought early and even $920 is early if it goes to 40K within 5-10 years. Paradoxically, I really hope for 1099-B like forms as long as they are accurate (this would be critical).
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January 23, 2017, 06:39:03 PM

The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.

Lost my faith in EW long ago... always traders trying their hardest to force wave counts to match history, never predictive of anything.
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January 23, 2017, 06:40:45 PM

No, bitcoin does not need fungability to have value.  

No. Bitcoin does need to be fungible if it wants to be money!
If it is not fungible people will start using another coin as money and bitcoin will lose its value!

Bitcoin is already as fungible as it needs to be.... and Bitcoin doesn't have to be money, ever. Yes there are already other coins we use for money, buy those too.
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January 23, 2017, 07:13:45 PM

No, bitcoin does not need fungability to have value.  

No. Bitcoin does need to be fungible if it wants to be money!
If it is not fungible people will start using another coin as money and bitcoin will lose its value!

Bitcoin is already as fungible as it needs to be.... and Bitcoin doesn't have to be money, ever. Yes there are already other coins we use for money, buy those too.

That is nonsense.

What does that mean "as fungible as it needs to be"? It is either fungible or it is not! You can't have a semi fungible money like you can't have a semi pregnant woman. Partially fungible means it is NOT fungible.

"Bitcoin doesn't have to be money, ever"... ?!
People buy it because they believe Bitcoin is the future of money. Why do I need bitcoins if I can't use it as money, ever?
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January 23, 2017, 07:28:18 PM

No, bitcoin does not need fungability to have value.  

No. Bitcoin does need to be fungible if it wants to be money!
If it is not fungible people will start using another coin as money and bitcoin will lose its value!

Bitcoin is already as fungible as it needs to be.... and Bitcoin doesn't have to be money, ever. Yes there are already other coins we use for money, buy those too.

That is nonsense.

What does that mean "as fungible as it needs to be"? It is either fungible or it is not! You can't have a semi fungible money like you can't have a semi pregnant woman. Partially fungible means it is NOT fungible.

"Bitcoin doesn't have to be money, ever"... ?!

People buy it because they believe Bitcoin is the future of money. Why do I need bitcoins if I can't use it as money, ever?

Fungible while in a given moment (exchanging your money for goods at the moment of purchase) is boolean, Fungibility from a global perspective is not Boolean and never has been. Your "money" has varying degrees of global fungibility depending on the "money" you are using. I cannot buy a car in the USA with money from Venezuala or with Bitcoin. So your overall position about boolean fungibility is completely wrong. All money on this planet and in the universe (see that Republic dataries have no value to Watto) has varying degrees of fungibility.

Bitcoin may likely today be the second MOST fungible money on the planet next to the American Dollar. That is today right now, yes.

People do not buy Bitcoin because it is the future of money. They buy bitcoin because it is digital money that has no equal and everyone is excited about it. It is fungible and people learn very quickly just how much. Nobody buys bitcoin because they are going to stop using their dollars, or rupies or whatever.
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January 23, 2017, 08:09:58 PM


Bitcoin may likely today be the second MOST fungible money on the planet next to the American Dollar. That is today right now, yes.

Ah, okay. I should have guessed by now I'm discussing bitcoin with a dollar cultist. Wasting my time...

If you're US citizen try to deposit your American dollars in a Swiss bank and you'll soon learn if they are "globally" fungible or not. IRS will tell you.
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January 23, 2017, 08:30:54 PM

People buy bitcoin because they have some kind of reason to do so. And who gives a fuck about three thousand year old definitions of money, it's either useful to the individual or it is not and that's all that is useful to say about it.
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January 23, 2017, 08:32:37 PM




hey all... i'm seeing btc between $1000 and $2400 first half of the year due to china unable to short or stop btc from rising when they yell stop pumping btc.... china is barely able to keep btc under $1000...the chinese mega whale almost got called at $1150.... the breakout will happen . .. china is panicking over price of bitcoin.

Are you saying that BTC prices will be bouncing around within that price range for the next six months or so?

You must have finally decided to go long in bitcoin,..... hahahahahha...    Shocked

By the way, your current price range prediction is seeming quite broad...   Are you merely trying to hedge in order to be right no matter what or do you just not have any more specifics in your current thinking?  Don't get me wrong, it is not a bad prediction (even though it does seem a bit more optimistic than even me), if it were to be true... $1,000 as the new floor and $2400 as the ceiling (at least in the next 5-6 months).. whowza!!!
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January 23, 2017, 08:41:28 PM

The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.

Lost my faith in EW long ago... always traders trying their hardest to force wave counts to match history, never predictive of anything.

Hehe, if you found sth working better pls let me now by pm.

 Grin
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January 23, 2017, 08:59:15 PM

Sentiment here is too negative, we are at the highest prices in bitcoins history and there is more potential to the upside.
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January 23, 2017, 09:09:23 PM

Sentiment here is too negative, we are at the highest prices in bitcoins history and there is more potential to the upside.
And that, Sir, is bearish!
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January 23, 2017, 09:17:24 PM

And why is that? Because the price always has to fall and we can't have higher prices? The bitcoin price is literally increasing every year, except for 2014. I would not worry and I do not believe in all the bear crap.
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