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Question: Aug. 17 Closing Price:
<$3,000 - 4 (4.3%)
<$8,000 - 3 (3.2%)
$8,001-$8,500 - 2 (2.1%)
$8,501-$9,000 - 2 (2.1%)
$9,001-$9,500 - 3 (3.2%)
$9,501-$10,000 - 16 (17%)
$10,001-$10,500 - 18 (19.1%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 13 (13.8%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 8 (8.5%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 6 (6.4%)
$12,001-$12,500 - 3 (3.2%)
$12,501-$13,000 - 1 (1.1%)
$13,001-$13,500 - 1 (1.1%)
$13,501-$14,000 - 2 (2.1%)
>$14,000 - 2 (2.1%)
>$18,000 - 10 (10.6%)
Total Voters: 94

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21328246 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (104 posts by 20 users deleted.)
r0ach
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January 24, 2017, 01:03:18 PM

Also: Bitcoin is money.

It sounds like semantics, but I would say it's not.  

There's a saying that gold and silver are money and everything else is debt/credit.  This is true.  Fiat can default if your sovereign no longer honors it, like what happened in India with demonetization of bills.  Bitcoin can default if it becomes unusable somehow.  It's not possible for gold or silver to default because it exists as more than a concept.  Yea, the perceived "value" can change, and individual borrowers can default - which is just an obfuscated form of theft - but the system itself doesn't default.
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pinger
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January 24, 2017, 01:28:33 PM

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

I'm not ballsy (read: stupid) enough to have fiat sitting around on exchanges to take advantage of little dips like this.

I know there are ways of insta-buying BTC, but none of them are available to me, so I'll be watching from the sidelines again...

And that's precisely the reason for higher volatility. As people become wiser and not letting their funds on exchanges, the order books become thinner.

Fat order books = High risk for exchange "hacking" / lower volatility due to inertia (=fat order book)
Thin order books = Better prepared for exchange "hacking" / bigger volatility

I have to admit I don't have a huge fear of "hacking" with BTC-E. It is always a risk and I wouldn't store life savings there or anything, but they have been one of the most reliable in that regard for a very long time aside from the temporary DDOS downtimes that happen every now and then.

Personally I don't really believe the hacking narrative half the times hence the "". Most of the time it's inside job. I mean Karpeles had like 200k coins stashed somewhere? Bitfinex had top-notch security and everything went out the window to make the impossible->possible? Mintpal got bought and then got "hacked"? Yeah right.

So, from that perspective, people should be careful.

Or just start using Bitsquare.
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January 24, 2017, 02:43:55 PM

I'm ok with the fee added to the Chinees exchanges but the charts are very boring to watch...
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January 24, 2017, 03:07:30 PM

The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.

quoting because i doubt either of these scenarios.

my hunch is a smaller dump back into high 800s.

quoted, because i think u are wrong.. my guess is a pump to the high 56,000s after the surprise hard fork .
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January 24, 2017, 03:11:47 PM




hey all... i'm seeing btc between $1000 and $2400 first half of the year due to china unable to short or stop btc from rising when they yell stop pumping btc.... china is barely able to keep btc under $1000...the chinese mega whale almost got called at $1150.... the breakout will happen . .. china is panicking over price of bitcoin.

Are you saying that BTC prices will be bouncing around within that price range for the next six months or so?

You must have finally decided to go long in bitcoin,..... hahahahahha...    Shocked

By the way, your current price range prediction is seeming quite broad...   Are you merely trying to hedge in order to be right no matter what or do you just not have any more specifics in your current thinking?  Don't get me wrong, it is not a bad prediction (even though it does seem a bit more optimistic than even me), if it were to be true... $1,000 as the new floor and $2400 as the ceiling (at least in the next 5-6 months).. whowza!!!


i always was long ...
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January 24, 2017, 03:20:27 PM

The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.

quoting because i doubt either of these scenarios.

my hunch is a smaller dump back into high 800s.

quoted, because i think u are wrong.. my guess is a pump to the high 56,000s after the surprise hard fork .

Sorry Aztec but what do you mean by this? A surprise fork? 56,000 what exactly?
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January 24, 2017, 03:22:26 PM



Look at that volume!
What a drop!
I think this is it with chinese dominance, in terms of trading volume of course.
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January 24, 2017, 03:35:40 PM

Whales just love $900   Wink

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January 24, 2017, 03:43:47 PM

The rest of the world seeing that the Chinese exchanges were fake volume will either now realize that the jump in price was not due to Chinese rushing to get their money out of China or they will spin it as the Chinese government has cracked down on Chinese Bitcoin purchases and they are now moving their money in other ways.

My confidence in the media points to them choosing the latter.
Okurkabinladin
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January 24, 2017, 03:49:57 PM



Look at that volume!
What a drop!
I think this is it with chinese dominance, in terms of trading volume of course.

I see.

The thing is, that volume of western exchanges didnt surge to the level, chinese has fallen off. Indicating that atleast some of the volume was indeed fake.

Short and mid term, this is quite bearish news, I am afraid. A lot of the excitement might fall of, once investors in Asia realize, that the party house is half empty.

Long term, it will be beneficial for multiple reasons, not least adding transparency and credibility to established exchange providers.
European Central Bank
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January 24, 2017, 04:06:26 PM

The rest of the world seeing that the Chinese exchanges were fake volume will either now realize that the jump in price was not due to Chinese rushing to get their money out of China.

i don't see how anyone other than a chronic bitcoin red piller could've ever believed that anyway.
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January 24, 2017, 04:30:58 PM

1h and 4h charts are really starting to look bearish now. 1D chart looks neutral still but could become bearish also pretty quickly. Price has to go up to $940+ soon in order to paint a more bullish picture, but right now it looks like we'll be seeing $850 again first and perhaps even the $700s later. The sudden much lower volume from China might contribute to increased selling pressure on the short term, although longer term it should be good for the price and volatility without a market dominated so much by China.
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January 24, 2017, 04:40:22 PM

I did see an article that said that with the Chinese exchanges adding transaction fees it should cut down on volatility.

Yes, because low volume is great for volatility.  Roll Eyes
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January 24, 2017, 04:54:04 PM
Last edit: January 24, 2017, 05:11:27 PM by JimboToronto

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Missed a day and didn't miss much... currently $912USD (Bitcoinaverage).

Down a little but any dip below $900 doesn't last long.

Consolidation is probably a good thing. Time to just sit back and watch.
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January 24, 2017, 05:10:19 PM

I'm not sure if I pray for bitcoin to soar high again or not so I can buy more. I'm waiting for my next damn salary.  Grin Cheesy
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January 24, 2017, 05:16:00 PM

The rest of the world seeing that the Chinese exchanges were fake volume will either now realize that the jump in price was not due to Chinese rushing to get their money out of China or they will spin it as the Chinese government has cracked down on Chinese Bitcoin purchases and they are now moving their money in other ways.

My confidence in the media points to them choosing the latter.


The recent China dialog was just a rehash of the mtgox fallout with a little fluff added for good measure...

===> *imho* >> India has been the 5000lb Gorilla driving the price up if you didn't already know! ;-)



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January 24, 2017, 05:17:49 PM

===> *imho* >> India has been the 5000lb Gorillia driving the price up if you didn't already know! ;-)

where's the evidence for that? what indian volumes there are are pitiful and the price sky high. that points to not very many coins being bought.
gembitz
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January 24, 2017, 05:23:11 PM

===> *imho* >> India has been the 5000lb Gorillia driving the price up if you didn't already know! ;-)

where's the evidence for that? what indian volumes there are are pitiful and the price sky high. that points to not very many coins being bought.



http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/04/news/india/india-cash-crisis-rupee/



 Cool


^google it!
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January 24, 2017, 05:23:41 PM

===> *imho* >> India has been the 5000lb Gorillia driving the price up if you didn't already know! ;-)

where's the evidence for that? what indian volumes there are are pitiful and the price sky high. that points to not very many coins being bought.


try google trends---> bitcoin   (in India)    Cool
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January 24, 2017, 05:25:08 PM

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 Shocked

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

No, I'm not trolling. Some simple math:

Say the network capacity is 15000 transactions per hour before the difficulty increase.  Now the difficulty jump reduces capacity by 17%. So now capacity is 2550 transactions per hour less. Now assuming transaction demand remains the same, in 12 hours you'll amass 30k transactions above capacity which go into the mempool.

So that alone explains more than half of the effect. No need to postulate a "spam attack". Any slight (10%) increase in demand at the same time would account for another 18k transactions making that 48k transactions, almost your measure 55k.


Wait even with you math, a sudden consistent spike of 10% in volume across the board right at the time of difficulty adjustment looks normal to you?
Now just a hypothetical, if you had limited resources and were to trying to spam the blockchain how exactly would you approach or perhaps time your attack?  Roll Eyes
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