Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Killerpotleaf]

today is the day i can feeeeel it

Still waiting for $860?

any minute now!
860 . DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM
yup yup yup, this recent spike is just market being overconfident...

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[Okurkabinladin]

What do you people make of this? Will it make Mexicans look for alternative ways for remittances?

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/25/news/economy/mexico-remittances-trump/

It is quite possible that mexican currency will enter free fall as the better off try to get their money out of the country, that will be forced to devalue in order to stay competetive with newly erected protective measures of United States market - its number one bussiness partner.

Interesting times ahead of us.

[Killerpotleaf]

25billion dollars a year get sent to mexico

[600watt]

25billion dollars a year get sent to mexico

finally the name of this thread is starting to get a real meaning. 

[rjclarke2000]

25billion dollars a year get sent to mexico

finally the name of this thread is starting to get a real meaning. 

Ha ha ha!! Love this!

[willope]

It is the first time in two years that I really have no idea what to do.
The price should go down the next 1-2 months. Looking the 1w chart, or the order books, the result is the same: down. But it seems that the game is changing a lot with the new chinese exchange "self regulations".
And there is still a lot of buying pressure I don't know why. Maybe the halving effekt, or a lot of new bitcoiners, or that margin trading (=shorting bitcoin) largely has been killed.
So, I'm 90% long, but I want to short. But I don't want to lose my precious bitcoins, cuz I think, that maybe it'll go up! AAAAA 

[yugo23]

It is the first time in two years that I really have no idea what to do.
The price should go down the next 1-2 months. Looking the 1w chart, or the order books, the result is the same: down. But it seems that the game is changing a lot with the new chinese exchange "self regulations".
And there is still a lot of buying pressure I don't know why. Maybe the halving effekt, or a lot of new bitcoiners, or that margin trading (=shorting bitcoin) largely has been killed.
So, I'm 90% long, but I want to short. But I don't want to lose my precious bitcoins, cuz I think, that maybe it'll go up! AAAAA 

Then don't do anything ^^
At the end of the day trading is a lot like gambling.
The only difference is that if you're good odds are in your favor.
But if you got no clue about what's going to happen, best is still to not play.

[rjclarke2000]

It is the first time in two years that I really have no idea what to do.
The price should go down the next 1-2 months. Looking the 1w chart, or the order books, the result is the same: down. But it seems that the game is changing a lot with the new chinese exchange "self regulations".
And there is still a lot of buying pressure I don't know why. Maybe the halving effekt, or a lot of new bitcoiners, or that margin trading (=shorting bitcoin) largely has been killed.
So, I'm 90% long, but I want to short. But I don't want to lose my precious bitcoins, cuz I think, that maybe it'll go up! AAAAA 

Welcome to hodling. We are the less brave bunch.

[fortune143]

It is the first time in two years that I really have no idea what to do.
The price should go down the next 1-2 months. Looking the 1w chart, or the order books, the result is the same: down. But it seems that the game is changing a lot with the new chinese exchange "self regulations".
And there is still a lot of buying pressure I don't know why. Maybe the halving effekt, or a lot of new bitcoiners, or that margin trading (=shorting bitcoin) largely has been killed.
So, I'm 90% long, but I want to short. But I don't want to lose my precious bitcoins, cuz I think, that maybe it'll go up! AAAAA 

This just about sums up exactly where I am now - I've got fiat waiting on the sidelines and btc in equal measure, just don't know what to do except hodl.. 

[Riddikulo]

Love the recent price increase. Definitely interesting times ahead! I think we expected the rise, but not this quickly lol. Let's see where we'll end up once the dust settles.

[Killerpotleaf]

It is the first time in two years that I really have no idea what to do.
The price should go down the next 1-2 months. Looking the 1w chart, or the order books, the result is the same: down. But it seems that the game is changing a lot with the new chinese exchange "self regulations".
And there is still a lot of buying pressure I don't know why. Maybe the halving effekt, or a lot of new bitcoiners, or that margin trading (=shorting bitcoin) largely has been killed.
So, I'm 90% long, but I want to short. But I don't want to lose my precious bitcoins, cuz I think, that maybe it'll go up! AAAAA  

This just about sums up exactly where I am now - I've got fiat waiting on the sidelines and btc in equal measure, just don't know what to do except hodl..  

its always more of a gamble to bet on down then up. ALWAYS.

after all if things work out very well we're looking at: no amount of fiat will buy you any amount of BTC relatively soon (within 1 or 2 decades)

and if things work out badly we can blame core while we cash out at 12K

[Riddikulo]

Bitcoin holders are funny bunch — especially the old school ones. They want to see the glory days of 20x returns in a year (and the accompanying crashes!) — almost like a drug addict looking for one more hit. Those days are gone. We should be aiming for 2–3x gains every year for the next couple of years, and then those returns should be steadily declining over time, but always going up and to the right — the power of compound growth will ensure that we still get 20x returns, but over a longer period of time and in more sustainable fashion.

[JayJuanGee]

It is the first time in two years that I really have no idea what to do.
The price should go down the next 1-2 months. Looking the 1w chart, or the order books, the result is the same: down. But it seems that the game is changing a lot with the new chinese exchange "self regulations".
And there is still a lot of buying pressure I don't know why. Maybe the halving effekt, or a lot of new bitcoiners, or that margin trading (=shorting bitcoin) largely has been killed.
So, I'm 90% long, but I want to short. But I don't want to lose my precious bitcoins, cuz I think, that maybe it'll go up! AAAAA 

From time to time, I get these kinds of feelings, too.

Sometimes, you can either just sell a fraction of a percentage of your holdings or set some sell orders for very small amounts, and doing such tweaking will cause you to feel less anxious and more prepared for down, if it were to happen. 

On the other hand, if prices go up, you have to consider how much are you prepared to leave behind, and in that regard, your sell order should be small enough, that you don't feel bad about leaving it behind and you still feel that you have enough stake in UP that you are going to sufficiently prosper.

Even though this is called preparing for either direction, i do understand that there can be certain times that there is some anxiousness because you feel that your holdings are not quite proportioned in accordance with your sense of probable price directions.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin holders are funny bunch — especially the old school ones. They want to see the glory days of 20x returns in a year (and the accompanying crashes!) — almost like a drug addict looking for one more hit. Those days are gone. We should be aiming for 2–3x gains every year for the next couple of years, and then those returns should be steadily declining over time, but always going up and to the right — the power of compound growth will ensure that we still get 20x returns, but over a longer period of time and in more sustainable fashion.

I doubt that old timers are any more delusional than anyone else.

The fact of the matter is that none of us really know, and you don't seem to know either - because, even though I kind of agree that market cap increases and more trading tools (more mature in other words) likely causes the volatility to go down, we cannot count on any kind of return whether that is 2x or 3x a year or 20x over 10 years.

Furthermore, in retrospect we are going to be able to look back and to see what happened, and usually in retrospect it can be calculated in ways that are much more measured; however, when we are in the midst of attempting to predict price direction, we don't know and we cannot even be sure that we won't get stuck back down in another period of  $200s.

Like you, I am mostly betting on up, and I have a pretty decent chunk of change in BTC because I think that it remains one of the most promising of investment categories, but I doubt that the path forward will be stable in any kind of meaningful way, and there also remains (in spite market cap and shorting tools) possibilities of irrational exuberance that could cause considerable and quick exponential growth - whether that is a 10x spurt, a 20x spurt or some other variation. 

So in other words, there is nothing wrong with speculating or talking about 10x or 20x in a year or less, even though some folks are going to place differing probabilities on such, whether that is .0001% or 68%.. hahahahaha.. And it is also probably healthy to reassess from time to time.. recall a time period, when Adam continuously suggested $32k in the near future, now he is kind of suggesting $12k.., which shows that sometimes we have to adjust our expectations based on previous unknowns becoming known and the speculation about the probability of newly developing unknowns (both known and unknown)

[DaRude]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches? 

[Killerpotleaf]

it does look very bullish short term
my 860 kinda looks like a long shot, we might be >1000 in a few days....
FOOK.

oh well, i just thought all the longs in china covering while all the scraping bots getting shutdown might cause some very noticeable price weakness.

i forgot bitcoin is a honey badger

[JayJuanGee]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches? 

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

[PoolMinor]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches?  

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

shorts are not at 1 year high, the 1 year high is 25,345 BTC August 1 2016 03:00

[r0ach]

What do you people make of this? Will it make Mexicans look for alternative ways for remittances?

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/25/news/economy/mexico-remittances-trump/

[Searing]

It is the first time in two years that I really have no idea what to do.
The price should go down the next 1-2 months. Looking the 1w chart, or the order books, the result is the same: down. But it seems that the game is changing a lot with the new chinese exchange "self regulations".
And there is still a lot of buying pressure I don't know why. Maybe the halving effekt, or a lot of new bitcoiners, or that margin trading (=shorting bitcoin) largely has been killed.
So, I'm 90% long, but I want to short. But I don't want to lose my precious bitcoins, cuz I think, that maybe it'll go up! AAAAA 

Bitcoin loves 'sideways price' we could be back to that again with the low volume......can you imagine the pump if all the different flavors of bitcoin devs got together with
a hybrid 2mb block/seq witness comprise of some such

(ack! gave my self a little btc woody just thinking about it!)