Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[STT]

My quick take on price action was it appears bullish and it has in fact now gone past a line of resistance for the last days and appears to ready to confirm higher price before challenging 2470 again.    I hear talk of CNY strengthening in line with an economy pulling back but thats not apparent in their price especially, its usually more sedate but has also risen.  Yesterdays low price was a rejection of lower pricing and time to buy for the cany apparently.  Kraken also looks good to challenge a previous uptrend.  Overall past 50% retracement of the ATH to sub 2000 move.   Give it a best target of 2222 EURO before it should again be resting before any further push ?

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[JayJuanGee]

A new ATH this month is maybe to much to expect (but I wouldnt be surprised at all). Thinking long term it would be better is this month would be just a consolidation of around $2500.

Yes, we need to have another retest of ATH, unless it breaks out decisively we are looking at couple more weeks of consolidation. However, even then I more positive then ever, that we are not going to see sub-1500 anytime soon. This bull trend is incredibly strong and once we retest lows one more time, we can resume the growth.

We could eventually even reach 5k USD/per bitcoin this year, who knows?

It is quite possible that the testing of the lows are done.


Even though there are attempts to keep the price down and even get below $2k, we keep trickling back up... up and up and up.

Might not be another down test until somewhere between $4k and $6k?

Perhaps you are right  

I was merely stating an alternative scenario, and surely various scenarios (whether up or down) are a series of probabilities.  So in that regard, I am just trying to say that your assertion of the down scenario that retests the previous lows (currently around $1,850 in the latest wave) seemed to be giving such retest of low scenario probabilities that were quite high from my perspective.

I mean, you in essence suggested that another test of the low was likely necessary before proceeding up, and gosh, we have already been testing lows and such further test does not seem like it has to take place in order to have enough UP fuel.

By the way, regarding the assertion of my response saying that we could be heading to the $4k to $6k arena before we get another correction, I am not very wedded to my assertion, but I am getting the sense that up is a bit more probable than down, and that down is not necessary in order to go up.  Nonetheless, I also understand that anything can happen and we are a long way from $4k.  In that regard, we still need to break through resistances that exist at $2,400 and at $2,600 and then at the ATH level of $2,760 and then in the $3,600 region in order to then get ourselves into the $4k to $6k price arena.

however, winter... weekend is coming. And we all know what happens during weekends... unless, some great info emerges, that would break back of bear whales.

There may be a tiny bit of a correlation of dumps on the weekend - but that kind of pattern is far from certain.  We have also experienced pumps on weekend, especially during bull markets or bull trends.  Do you recall in May of 2016, there were weekend pumps on 3 or 4 weekends in a row... by the time the fourth weekend came, people were starting to expect a weekend pump and then we got a dump instead.. hahahaha...   So, again you seem to be assigning a quite high probability that a dump is going to occur soon and is necessary before proceeding up and that such a dump is likely for this weekend... maybe?  maybe not.

I also find it very bullish, that predictions about resolution of bitcoin withdrawals in China proved to be correct. Before PBOC intervention, China was the market leader pushing the price up and being ahead of west by 5% on average. We should see that now again.

Previously China had received way too much credit for BTC price movements, and even with their previous exaggerated credit, they are not going to be returning to their old glory days any time soon because the various PBOC interventions of late 2016 that have been lasting until today, have shed considerable light on the fakery of the Chines BTC trade volume and the margin trading practices that exacerbated Chinese BTC trade volume fakery.  

So you seem to be giving too much weight to a fantasy that did not really exist previously yet is even less likely to exist in the near future, due to some of the recent PBOC interventions.

This summer will be quite eventful.

There is no way that I can disagree with you.  I believe in the past, summers had a tendency to become boring.  A kind of pattern; however, currently with so much attention to alts and even the simultaneous bullish behavior of BTC prices, there is almost no way that the excitement level is going to drop off any time in the near future.  We have so much activity and craziness going on right now in BTClandia and in Altcoinlandia that it is going to take several months to simmer down the amazing and exciting dynamics of this current situation.

[suzanne5223]

A new ATH this month is maybe to much to expect (but I wouldnt be surprised at all). Thinking long term it would be better is this month would be just a consolidation of around $2500.

Yes, we need to have another retest of ATH, unless it breaks out decisively we are looking at couple more weeks of consolidation. However, even then I more positive then ever, that we are not going to see sub-1500 anytime soon. This bull trend is incredibly strong and once we retest lows one more time, we can resume the growth.

We could eventually even reach 5k USD/per bitcoin this year, who knows?

It is quite possible that the testing of the lows are done.


Even though there are attempts to keep the price down and even get below $2k, we keep trickling back up... up and up and up.

Might not be another down test until somewhere between $4k and $6k?

Perhaps you are right  

I was merely stating an alternative scenario, and surely various scenarios (whether up or down) are a series of probabilities.  So in that regard, I am just trying to say that your assertion of the down scenario that retests the previous lows (currently around $1,850 in the latest wave) seemed to be giving such retest of low scenario probabilities that were quite high from my perspective.

I mean, you in essence suggested that another test of the low was likely necessary before proceeding up, and gosh, we have already been testing lows and such further test does not seem like it has to take place in order to have enough UP fuel.

By the way, regarding the assertion of my response saying that we could be heading to the $4k to $6k arena before we get another correction, I am not very wedded to my assertion, but I am getting the sense that up is a bit more probable than down, and that down is not necessary in order to go up.  Nonetheless, I also understand that anything can happen and we are a long way from $4k.  In that regard, we still need to break through resistances that exist at $2,400 and at $2,600 and then at the ATH level of $2,760 and then in the $3,600 region in order to then get ourselves into the $4k to $6k price arena.

however, winter... weekend is coming. And we all know what happens during weekends... unless, some great info emerges, that would break back of bear whales.

There may be a tiny bit of a correlation of dumps on the weekend - but that kind of pattern is far from certain.  We have also experienced pumps on weekend, especially during bull markets or bull trends.  Do you recall in May of 2016, there were weekend pumps on 3 or 4 weekends in a row... by the time the fourth weekend came, people were starting to expect a weekend pump and then we got a dump instead.. hahahaha...   So, again you seem to be assigning a quite high probability that a dump is going to occur soon and is necessary before proceeding up and that such a dump is likely for this weekend... maybe?  maybe not.

I also find it very bullish, that predictions about resolution of bitcoin withdrawals in China proved to be correct. Before PBOC intervention, China was the market leader pushing the price up and being ahead of west by 5% on average. We should see that now again.

Previously China had received way too much credit for BTC price movements, and even with their previous exaggerated credit, they are not going to be returning to their old glory days any time soon because the various PBOC interventions of late 2016 that have been lasting until today, have shed considerable light on the fakery of the Chines BTC trade volume and the margin trading practices that exacerbated Chinese BTC trade volume fakery.  

So you seem to be giving too much weight to a fantasy that did not really exist previously yet is even less likely to exist in the near future, due to some of the recent PBOC interventions.

This summer will be quite eventful.

There is no way that I can disagree with you.  I believe in the past, summers had a tendency to become boring.  A kind of pattern; however, currently with so much attention to alts and even the simultaneous bullish behavior of BTC prices, there is almost no way that the excitement level is going to drop off any time in the near future.  We have so much activity and craziness going on right now in BTClandia and in Altcoinlandia that it is going to take several months to simmer down the amazing and exciting dynamics of this current situation.

Good to hear from up ranking members on here that the price of bitcoin will bullish longer for sometime and this remind of Saxo Bank predict which the price to reach 2100$ and so amazing that the prediction came true and even past.

[Lauda]

Does anyone else think that $2500 is likely for today?

Bitstamp | There are currently 843.31953 bitcoins offered at or under 2500.0 USD, worth 2087552.74752 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0236 seconds
Bitstamp | There are currently 2328.4616 bitcoins offered at or under 3000.0 USD, worth 6102127.45442 USD in total. | Data vintage: 5.2647 seconds

The Chinese are back:

I still wonder why the premium on the OTC market is this much higher than the current market rate. Right now it is enjoying a 100% premium: https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote

[machasm]

Does anyone else think that $2500 is likely for today?

Bitstamp | There are currently 843.31953 bitcoins offered at or under 2500.0 USD, worth 2087552.74752 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0236 seconds
Bitstamp | There are currently 2328.4616 bitcoins offered at or under 3000.0 USD, worth 6102127.45442 USD in total. | Data vintage: 5.2647 seconds

The Chinese are back:

I still wonder why the premium on the OTC market is this much higher than the current market rate. Right now it is enjoying a 100% premium: https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote

Anything is possible in BTC land.

[miningnew]

Does anyone else think that $2500 is likely for today?

Bitstamp | There are currently 843.31953 bitcoins offered at or under 2500.0 USD, worth 2087552.74752 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0236 seconds
Bitstamp | There are currently 2328.4616 bitcoins offered at or under 3000.0 USD, worth 6102127.45442 USD in total. | Data vintage: 5.2647 seconds

The Chinese are back:

I still wonder why the premium on the OTC market is this much higher than the current market rate. Right now it is enjoying a 100% premium: https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote

From which site is that picture?

[stereotype]

Does anyone else think that $2500 is likely for today?

Bitstamp | There are currently 843.31953 bitcoins offered at or under 2500.0 USD, worth 2087552.74752 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0236 seconds
Bitstamp | There are currently 2328.4616 bitcoins offered at or under 3000.0 USD, worth 6102127.45442 USD in total. | Data vintage: 5.2647 seconds

The Chinese are back:

I still wonder why the premium on the OTC market is this much higher than the current market rate. Right now it is enjoying a 100% premium: https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote

From which site is that picture?

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets

[bitjanja]

looks like ripple will go to 10usd in less than a year

[bitjanja]

havent done any math, the 10usd number was just a wild guess...dont take it serious.

however...


-ripple has nothing to do with the rest of the criptos, for what i understand its aimed at solving a very specific problem for banks, so it plays well with current world structures (unlike bitcoin)

-ripple is already being used by some banks, wait until a couple more add themselves to the consortium, probably during this year?

-ripple is currently the only alternative in bitstamp, until these changes, it looks like its getting -and will- a lot of capital "diversification" from users there, besides, bitstamp approach to market seems to be "being the licensed, conservative and respectable exchange (even with bank partnerships like credit agricole)", introducing ONLY ripple as investment alt is kind of endorsing for ripple.

-FOMO wanna be rich -but on safe grounds- cause "im no expert on shitcoins pump n dumps action (dangerous as fk)" for the new waves of non expert investors. Ripple doesnt look as going back to cero, actually it looks better than litecoin cause:
+tackles different problem, and differentiates very well from bitcoin (unlike LTc)
+its a institutional coin, unlike all other criptos, has banks love

-backed by pantera capital

-more


just a couple things from the top of my head

[elebit]

-ripple has nothing to do with the rest of the criptos, for what i understand its aimed at solving a very specific problem for banks, so it plays well with current world structures (unlike bitcoin)
-ripple is already being used by some banks, wait until a couple more add themselves to the consortium, probably during this year?

You understand it wrong. Ripple the software may in theory be of interest to banks (although it is dubious), but XRP most certainly is not. You don't need XRP to use Ripple. No one uses the currency Ripple.

Of course it can rise far anyway, as long as it is kept rising and greater fools come along. This is helped by the fact that Ripple the company controls pretty much all Ripple the currency, so they can just keep it off the market until said fools arrive. They can siphon them off in a controllled manner, and please keep in mind that you are competing with them if you plan on getting rich by selling off your tokens in time.

[bitjanja]

to sum up, i think general perception now on the cripto scene investment wise is:

-BitCoin (BTC) -> THE COIN, proof of concept, movement. Kind of like money

-Ethereum (ETH) -> Promises the Next layer tech wise, SmartContracts. All the buzz and hype surrounding the last year every expert kick phrase "Blockchain is the real thing, not bitcoin but the blockchain" is kind of represented by ETH. Ethereum promises some kind of completely new disruptive world changing applications in different sectors by being the "use the blockchain tech" tool, kind of like a blockchain jocker card. Some banks are already entering these grounds, although eth doen not provide specific solutions for the banking industry right now. Its promising big increase in value short term, but it is already at 200$ so not a huge multiplier shortterm.

-Ripple (XRP) -> The institutional coin. Essentially different to all other criptos. It is controlled, no mining. Aimed at solving todays banking money transmitting problems in a very efficient way. It has a direct customer now -> banks. If its pitch works, new banks roll in. The more is used, the more possibility to turn into leading solution for today. Banks are still in 20th century. Ripple is a 21th century solution for banking industry that can be used right now. In fact its rapidly gaining traction amongst them.

-Rest of criptos -> Not really so different to bitcoin, at least when you review them at a glance, so to the general public. When they go up it seems because of speculative movements. But nothing to sustain. Dogecoin? WTF. Stellar Lumens? no idea. LTC? the "second" cripto.. but why invest on LTC when you can invest on BTC. And FOMO wise, then might as well invest on ETH or even XRP wich sure look with more potential.


Hey im describing just perception, mine and of many i have asked. Maybe zcash or monero are groundbreaking standard and we will only use those in 2100AC, however, i dont see why they are so different to BTC (super duper real anonimity man!!)

Probably i got a lot of shitcoins confused, and probably i dont see a lot of differences between the shit coins beacause im uninformed.. but i think these is the general panorama to the uninformed majority, and so it is reflected by the market.

From all this, my perception is that RIPPLE (XRP) is the most probable coin for a high multiplier rise / pump in the near future. I mean a pump that can be sustained later and not die forever. XRP is currently hovering around 0,30USD levels. A little pump can well enter 2-5USD levels shortterm

[bitjanja]

-ripple has nothing to do with the rest of the criptos, for what i understand its aimed at solving a very specific problem for banks, so it plays well with current world structures (unlike bitcoin)
-ripple is already being used by some banks, wait until a couple more add themselves to the consortium, probably during this year?

You understand it wrong. Ripple the software may in theory be of interest to banks (although it is dubious), but XRP most certainly is not. You don't need XRP to use Ripple. No one uses the currency Ripple.

Of course it can rise far anyway, as long as it is kept rising and greater fools come along. This is helped by the fact that Ripple the company controls pretty much all Ripple the currency, so they can just keep it off the market until said fools arrive. They can siphon them off in a controllled manner, and please keep in mind that you are competing with them if you plan on getting rich by selling off your tokens in time.

So, maybe i am understanding it wrong, but as far i understand, ripple tokens are used in the negociation process when interchanging different currencies by the banking system. The further on ripple adoption, the more value the token bears.

However, more fundamentally, i find your words extremely bold, nearly like accusations of scam to ripple. I know the cripto scene is full of ideology based on "decentralization utopy". I love BTC decentralization ideas very interesting and experimental, but i dont think this is the main pilar for BTC value. On the other hand, i find this argument more under the paranoid movement (which i respect) very usual in USA (from infowars to 9/11 inside job, passing though the government chemtrails and such.. but who knows right?).

But to sustain that -> if is not decentralized / mined by independents, it is a scam. Seems kind of fanatic to this decentraliced idea to me. The use of such strong affirmation that ripple is only sustained by "fools" its already a strong indicator of fanatism to me. And fanatism is the enemy of reason, so.. yea

Its important to note that 99,9999% of working bussiness models today are based on centraliced entitities owning the assets. Centralized bussiness model are proven to work. Is the decentralized BTC experiment what has to be proven every day. Currently working succesfully as a store of value only BTW. Also, we all have our banks, society has banks and governements, and at least in developed countries, societies arent getting "fooled" and "robbed" every day because some entity bears control over a system. There are a lot of balancers, from journalism to freemarket (invisible hand). So nope, just beacuse XRP is to some exent centralized, doesnt mean its flawed

[European Central Bank]

one day some time in the far future people will figure out that 'banks are adopting xxx' means that banks are adapting its software and rejecting any market involvement, mainly because they would be insane to do so.

i don't know why that day hasn't arrived as it's as obvious as the sun rising the next day, but it will.

and I'm also still not convinced most institutions will ever find a use for anything in the crypto space in their lifetime.

[bitserve]

one day some time in the far future people will figure out that 'banks are adopting xxx' means that banks are adapting its software and rejecting any market involvement, mainly because they would be insane to do so.

i don't know why that day hasn't arrived as it's as obvious as the sun rising the next day, but it will.

and I'm also still not convinced most institutions will ever find a use for anything in the crypto space in their lifetime.

I think the reason that day hasn't come is because... people don't care as soon as they are profiting from it.

Only when people try to cash out they will realise only the first ones exiting will get the big profit. Until then they just see it rise and rise higher because noone is selling.

Yes I know the same could be said about Bitcoin... except because Bitcoin has been proved enough after enduring a very long bear market and recovered afterwards.

[Red-Apple]

when did this topic stopped being the "wall observer" with "bitcoin" charts and some analysis on them and on the bitcoin market and become cheer leading for altcoins thing?!!

[Dotto]

So cool

http://www.creativeapplications.net/c/block-bills-64-banknotes-generated-from-the-bitcoin-blockchain/

[bitjanja]

one day some time in the far future people will figure that 'banks are adopting xxx' mwans that banks are adapting its software and rejecting any market involvement, mainly because they would be insane to do so.

i don't know why that day hasn't arrived as it's as obvious as the sun rising the next day, but it will.

so banks dont use CRMs? saap? so banks dont use any system or solution that its not built in house by them? come on

banks need to communicate with each other, and they do by using de facto standards. SEPA transfers are a standard (from the 20th century). These standars mean processes that have different specs and efficiencies. Today, a SEPA transfer takes days. When you send your money to an exchange it takes days, not seconds right?

so yea -> BTC used by banks?.. NOT gonna happen..EVER. besides, takes a lot of time now, and more important, its decentralized, with is crazy risky for a traditional organization like world banking system.

Ripple used by banks?.. already happening!
using this system doesnt mean any market involvement at all. so i find no logic in such assertion.


More important, RIPPLE finally provides a system for banking industry to use 21st century tech from the getgo NOW. And its happening. Ripple is a deployed working solution aimed to become the standard for this processes, as far as i understand. And so, ripple offers cost savings for banks right on their homepage. So looks like it may very well be adopted, at least for some time. As we speak, thjere are some banks already signed in.

So, im bullish on Ripple, like many other. This doesnt mean i dont have my BTC stash in place, and believe me, my BTC dont get jealous.. so why all the fuzzle?

[JakaE]

Almost a 300BTC sell wall on Bitstamp at 2175EUR

Edit: It's getting demolished FAST

[bitjanja]

and I'm also still not convinced most institutions will ever find a use for anything in the crypto space in their lifetime.

exaclty, this is why RIPPLE is unique in the crypto space. Because its not designed for the end user, but instead for the bank. Its B2B.
All the crypto revolutionary technology has been focusing on end users. Finally theres one that is focused on the banking industry.

BTW i forgot to say before that a third party IS needed for creating a model that banks will adopt. Either consensus on a model or a third party providing a system. What would be crazy is for the banks to make each of them their own tool or software. XRP works as a common ground, a new standard.

All the other cryptos are tools for the end user. So i stick with BTC the leading one.

Then ETH is promising to use blockchain for a whole new layer of possibilities, so wow.


all the rest arent different or mostly are copies of either BTC or ETH but with less brand n momentum



EDIT: i just checked the RIPPLE web again, man im ULTRA BULLISH on this (so 70% on BTC, 20%XRP, 10%ETH) 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

$2451 on Stamp, atm. Nice recovery after we sunk all the way down into the $1800's only a matter of days ago.
I wonder what the chances are of a pump to $3000 in the short term.