Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aesma]

People just make believe bitcoin is whenever they get on the profitable side of a pump and dump.

Gold pumped from $400 to $1900, now down to $1255

Silver pumped from $16 to $50, now down to $16.50

Metals a reliable store of value, you say?

I bought silver at $30 so I am a total idiot and I was devastated as it dropped.

I just wish I'd thrown it all in bitcoin early 2013 instead of silver. We can all look back and say what if I guess....

On the plus side I was buying bitcoin up in the 200s and it's not turned out too bad.

Do not feel bad about that. To a certain degree, the metals $ price is irrelevant because if there is a monetary reset one day, metals pricing will end up orders of magnitude higher. Consider it long term insurance instead of an investment.

In 2013 I bought some bitcoin near the top before the last crash. After that I just continued to cost average down to about ~$500 or so. Now things are looking better. I actually bought a little bitcoin @$900 at the beginning of the year.

One lesson I learned is, buy the majority of a commodity or security when no one wants it and sentiment is in the toilet. Metals are pretty much close to that now. Bitcoin, not so much.  

I don't believe physical money with intrinsic value (silver, gold coins) will ever come back. If WW3 happens then what will be back is barter. In a post-apocalyptic world, silver and gold matter much less than clean water or better a way to make it, food, guns and bullets, etc.

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[aesma]

If I was going to fork a coin that had a lot of hidden financial support, one strategy would be to weakly launch it, causing many people (like us) to dump their coins for a very low price, these would be all snapped up by the big blockers for peanuts. A few weeks/months later   the real power push with its hidden money, organization and marketing would step in.

If you have people holding lots of BCCs, and the same people holding lots of cash, then who will be buying the BCCs for the price to rise ?

[Torque]

I don't believe physical money with intrinsic value (silver, gold coins) will ever come back. If WW3 happens then what will be back is barter. In a post-apocalyptic world, silver and gold matter much less than clean water or better a way to make it, food, guns and bullets, etc.

Average Joe on the street: "I don't believe physical money with intrinsic value (silver, gold coins) will ever come back. If WW3 happens then what will be back is barter. In a post-apocalyptic world, silver and gold matter much less than clean water or better a way to make it, food, guns and bullets, etc."

Other person: "So you don't own any gold or silver?"

Average Joe: "Nope."

Other person: "So I'm assuming that by your previous statement then that you've at least stocked up on clean water, food, guns, and bullets in case WW3 did happen?"

Average Joe: "Well, no, not really. I'm a metro man who lives in a one bedroom house in the city on 0.3 acres of land."

Lol, irony.  

[European Central Bank]

Average Joe on the street: "I don't believe physical money with intrinsic value (silver, gold coins) will ever come back. If WW3 happens then what will be back is barter. In a post-apocalyptic world, silver and gold matter much less than clean water or better a way to make it, food, guns and bullets, etc."

Other person: "So you don't own any gold or silver?"

Average Joe: "Nope."

Other person: "So I'm assuming that by your previous statement then that you've at least stocked up on clean water, food, guns, and bullets in case WW3 did happen?"

Average Joe: "Well, no, not really. I live in a one bedroom house in the city."

Lol, irony.  

silver and gold would have value for a 5-10 day period when people believed it was just a blip. if it ain't a blip then they are pieces of metal that take up space in your pocket and nothing else. maybe they'd be worth something a couple of generations down the line if the world was ever rebuilt. 

[aesma]

I don't believe physical money with intrinsic value (silver, gold coins) will ever come back. If WW3 happens then what will be back is barter. In a post-apocalyptic world, silver and gold matter much less than clean water or better a way to make it, food, guns and bullets, etc.

Average Joe on the street: "I don't believe physical money with intrinsic value (silver, gold coins) will ever come back. If WW3 happens then what will be back is barter. In a post-apocalyptic world, silver and gold matter much less than clean water or better a way to make it, food, guns and bullets, etc."

Other person: "So you don't own any gold or silver?"

Average Joe: "Nope."

Other person: "So I'm assuming that by your previous statement then that you've at least stocked up on clean water, food, guns, and bullets in case WW3 did happen?"

Average Joe: "Well, no, not really. I'm a metro man who lives in a one bedroom house in the city on 0.3 acres of land."

Lol, irony. 

I'm not a crazy survivalist type, if WW3 happens your chances are slim regardless of preparation, but ideally, when BTC will have made a rich man out of me, I definitely plan to own a house on some land, I would consider if it can provide access to freshwater, etc. And my underground insulated home theater could double as a shelter, I guess.

[bitserve]

Average Joe on the street: "I don't believe physical money with intrinsic value (silver, gold coins) will ever come back. If WW3 happens then what will be back is barter. In a post-apocalyptic world, silver and gold matter much less than clean water or better a way to make it, food, guns and bullets, etc."

Other person: "So you don't own any gold or silver?"

Average Joe: "Nope."

Other person: "So I'm assuming that by your previous statement then that you've at least stocked up on clean water, food, guns, and bullets in case WW3 did happen?"

Average Joe: "Well, no, not really. I live in a one bedroom house in the city."

Lol, irony.  

silver and gold would have value for a 5-10 day period when people believed it was just a blip. if it ain't a blip then they are pieces of metal that take up space in your pocket and nothing else. maybe they'd be worth something a couple of generations down the line if the world was ever rebuilt. 

^^^^THIS ^^^^

Even having some fertile land in which to grow food will mean almost nothing. Do you think you will be a happy farmer? No.... People will go to take it from you. Without any form of social "government" there is absolutely no productivity. You eat what you take, you take what you can...

But.. But... It is MY land, those are my resources!... yeah, right, go tell em.

Only after there is some EXCEDENTS there will be trade.... and for excedents to be there needs to be productivity.... or a crazy huge population reduction. Yep, only after the population gets to way less than 1% what it is now there will only be chaos, starving, diseases, death, murder, canibalisation,.... The horror.

Only the social construction we have nowadays have allowed the population to grow to current levels and develop the means to sustain it reasonably.

No matter how much someone prepares for an apocaliptic world.... You won't be.

Even in local temporal recent catastrophes money (in any form) was of almost no use.

Why are we even talking about this anyway?

[luckygenough56]

let's just buy litecoin

[aesma]

bitserve : I agree with you that the "happy farmer" scenario is not the most likely, my hope is to grow fruits and vegetables in my garden without WW3 happening. However if the shit hits the fan, I guess I would feel better shooting people coming at me if they're actually attacking my property.

[bitserve]

Because Bitcoin Cash has the transaction capacity required to support all the use cases that core threw overboard to sustain their Raspberry Pi fetish. More transaction capacity > more use cases > more utility > more use >  more value > more demand > higher price > more mining support > more security. Virtuous circle.

edit: or to look at it another way:

BTC has up to this point worked pretty well as a store of value*. But let's face it, for the last year, BTC has sucked as a medium of exchange. Some other crypto is going to fill that role. So you've got a choice:
1) Allow Bitcoin Cash to flourish, and take the role of default medium of exchange crypto. For this, you will be admirably rewarded. For you are starting off with one free BCC for every BTC you own.
2) Kill BCC, and some other crypto (LTC perhaps? Dash, god** forbid?) takes the medium of exchange role. Leaving you -- the BTC holder -- with nothing to show for it.

*oh yeah - that asterisk. Frankly, I believe that BTC earned its status as store of value only because its previous exceptional performance (now abandoned) as a medium of exchange. There's a good chance that BTC's store of value properties will be eroded by another coin that works great as medium of exchange, while still working well as a store of value. If so, wouldn't it be a good idea to own that other crypto?

** it's just an expression.

Have you recently watched the mempool? Is almost empty. Yeah, block usage is still over a safe threshold but Segwit is going to be implemented very soon (now it is a certainty unlike years ago) and will help alleviate some. Also a blocksize increase to 2MB is on the works.

Bitcoin scaling has never had a better prospect than it has right now.

So what is the fucking need for "Bitcoin Cash" precisely right now? It's nonsense.

Maybe you don't believe the blocksize increase will happen? I hope it does, because:

- Even if not right now, we will need that blocksize increase sometime in the future.

- If that is what has been agreed to reach consensus, then it is time to deliver, or next time we need consensus noone will trust any "agreement".

- Miners have not only accepted to pass Segwit which was a majority community request but they have with 100% hashrate consensus. If they can do the 2MB increase HF with the same consensus there is not risk, so it is ok.

- Many of the people that were completely against BU (me included) was for the reason that BU is an aberration that, besides the buggy code, gives miners the right to increase/decrease blocksize at will. That's too much power for the already powerful miners. A fixed blocksize increase when (or better yet BEFORE) it is needed? FINE!.

Above all, and most importantly... If someday Bitcoin can be replaced for any other altcoin at will, our digital money fantasy castle will crumble.

Can't we all just work on making Bitcoin (the one and only) better instead of trying to fight against it?

P.S.: The way all this "scaling process" has developed makes me think we can, and in fact it is happening.

[lost_in_base]

Ok, Bitmain abandoned BCC, any other news?

[Meuh6879]

LOL so BitcoinCash is just a joke?

This is the potential of threat of the 1 august ... the first move of mining industriy at 2017-07-19 on 00h28min28s.



The first move discover the game ... and the the power of the attacker.

[Torque]

Ok, Bitmain abandoned BCC, any other news?

Don't worry, the FUDsters will always come up with a new enemy to Bitcoin's existence. It'll be right around the corner, any minute now.

A new enemy, a new threat, a new scare, always on the horizon. There always has to be one, otherwise Average Joe might not be scared away anymore.... and start buying with two fists....

[bitserve]

Ok, Bitmain abandoned BCC, any other news?

Don't worry, the FUDsters will always come up with a new enemy to Bitcoin's existence. It'll be right around the corner, any minute now.

A new enemy, a new threat, a new scare, always on the horizon. There always has to be one, otherwise Average Joe might not be scared away anymore.... and start buying with two fists....

I have come to think that it is in fact a good thing for Bitcoin. Otherwise we would risk rising too quickly and into a REALLY unsustainable bubble.

So, well, thanks for the FUD.... Just keep it under control to not do any permanent harm.

P.S.: Also it gives some interesting trading opportunities here and there.

[lost_in_base]

Ok, Bitmain abandoned BCC, any other news?

Don't worry, the FUDsters will always come up with a new enemy to Bitcoin's existence. It'll be right around the corner, any minute now.

A new enemy, a new threat, a new scare, always on the horizon. There always has to be one, otherwise Average Joe might not be scared away anymore.... and start buying with two fists....

I have come to think that it is in fact a good thing for Bitcoin. Otherwise we would risk rising too quickly and into a REALLY unsustainable bubble.

So, well, thanks for the FUD.... Just keep it under control to not do any permanent harm.

P.S.: Also it gives some interesting trading opportunities here and there.

Actually, BCC believers should now buy real BTC all they can --> moon.

[Denker]

Ok, Bitmain abandoned BCC, any other news?

Don't worry, the FUDsters will always come up with a new enemy to Bitcoin's existence. It'll be right around the corner, any minute now.

A new enemy, a new threat, a new scare, always on the horizon. There always has to be one, otherwise Average Joe might not be scared away anymore.... and start buying with two fists....

I have come to think that it is in fact a good thing for Bitcoin. Otherwise we would risk rising too quickly and into a REALLY unsustainable bubble.

So, well, thanks for the FUD.... Just keep it under control to not do any permanent harm.

P.S.: Also it gives some interesting trading opportunities here and there.

All those FUD and attempts to manipulate the market or to take control over the core protocol, doesn't really bother me anymore as the will all fail to 99%!!Period!
It's like getting battle hardened over the years. The same with all other Bitcoiners who are part of the community since a few years. Only the noobs and the ones who are not doing constant research and keep themselves up to date are freaking out.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

oh now Wu's all nothing to do with me, just a contigency plan, move along now
https://blog.bitmain.com/en/regarding-bitcoin-cash-viabtc-bitcoin-abc/

ViaBTC also signed the NYA

[Paashaas]

oh now Wu's all nothing to do with me, just a contigency plan, move along now
https://blog.bitmain.com/en/regarding-bitcoin-cash-viabtc-bitcoin-abc/

Tell that to those bigblockers at r/btc. They think there will be a HF but they are up for a big suprise.

Those noobs have concerted real BTC into that Bitcoin Cash scam, ViaBTC will be happy with all those free money 

LOL so BitcoinCash is just a joke? proof of concept? will it work?

ViaBTC can make an alt-coin like everybody, no problem but will it be a succes..that will be a NO.

It is one major shit show, even Roger made a thread about it. Those noobs cant even READ...

They dont respect the scaling consences and those morons still keep crying that Bitcon is cancer etc etc.. man i've never seen so many retards in one place.
 

[jbreher]

By any sane definition, Bitcoin Cash is exactly a hard fork of the Bitcoin blockchain.

AFAIK LTC was such a HF ?

Not at all. LTC's blockchain is completely disjoint from Bitcoin's blockchain.

I think the naming of Coins (is it an Altcoin, Bitcoin, or a Bitcoin derivative) is a tricky thing.
My gut reaction is to say:
1) Anything thing that forks with minority hashing power is an altcoin
2) Anything that forks with a majority of hash power is still bitcoin

But this creates problems because
1) What happens if the altcoin (minority hash power chain) later becomes the majority chain, do we relabel it.

Aye - this is a reasonable question to ask. I think the market will make this decision.

2) This gives miners all the power to name what is Bitcoin,

No. The market will decide.

as users, businesses, exchanges (the majority) don't we get a say.

I don't know who the 'we' in your question might be.

Because there are no pre-defined rules for any of this, only consensus, there is no escape from constantly fighting off hijack attempts by a vocal minority.

Agreed. Such is the nature of a permissionless system.

Is there going to be a BCC fork no matter what conditions?  I heard some people say that it would only be if UASF split off or something?  I am a bit out of the loop.

From what I understand, it is a done deal.

While the BIP91 activation took the wind out of UASF's sails, there is a growing perception that many simply lied about the 2X portion. This creates incentive to carry through with the BCC fork. Having a viable BCC when the Nov 2X date rolls around changes the game theory significantly.

However this plays out, it'll be a good show. And while Bitcoin may take a temporary hit in the process, it will likely come out the other end stronger. For the market will have informed the proper course of action.

Just clarifying for the sake of truth. Depending upon the sequencing of things, Bitcoin Cash may be no more altcoin than is SegWit coin (which is somewhat playfully starting to be referred to as Bitcoin-Jr)

You and your big blocker buddies seem really angry, to be devolving into new name calling and spin terms to attempt to perpetuate various made up bullshit.

Well, JJG, you remain as clueless as ever. How do you get 'angry' out of the above? And what exactly is the bullshit? Either choice going forward is a change to Bitcoin. If one path forward is an alt, then so is the other.

Can't wait till a troll hacker replay attacks the BCC transactions on the real Bitcoin Blockchain. This will be firework.

Naah - it'll be a non-event for anyone but the affected party that made the unprotected transaction. As will be the inevitable cases of 'troll hackers' performing replay attacks on transactions on the BTC chain.

When is segwit likely to be activated?

it is approximately   2480  blocks   (464 blocks left in this period plus 2016 blocks in the next period)
and if there are 144 blocks per day, then that is approximately 17.2 days from today.  That means about August 10 - ish ( or 9-ish or 11-ish).  No?

Well, your reasoning is good, but your 144 blocks/day figure is low. Hashpower growth has been outrunning difficulty again. Recent intervals are averaging closer to 8-1/2 minutes. If this continues, you'll get your segwit locked in that much sooner.

Have you recently watched the mempool? Is almost empty. Yeah, block usage is still over a safe threshold but Segwit is going to be implemented very soon (now it is a certainty unlike years ago) and will help alleviate some. Also a blocksize increase to 2MB is on the works.

Maybe you don't believe the blocksize increase will happen?

- If that is what has been agreed to reach consensus, then it is time to deliver, or next time we need consensus noone will trust any "agreement".

- Many of the people that were completely against BU (me included) was for the reason that BU is an aberration that, besides the buggy code, gives miners the right to increase/decrease blocksize at will. That's too much power for the already powerful miners. A fixed blocksize increase when (or better yet BEFORE) it is needed? FINE!.

Above all, and most importantly... If someday Bitcoin can be replaced for any other altcoin at will, our digital money fantasy castle will crumble.

Can't we all just work on making Bitcoin (the one and only) better instead of trying to fight against it?

All rather rational. I'll just respond to a few of your points.

Yes, mempool is low. You know what else is low? Use of BTC in day-to-day commerce. While I've rarely bought the canonical 'coffee' with BTC, I used to be able to pay my bar and restaurant tabs with it. No more. While my experience itself is anecdotal, retailers which used to accept BTC do not accept BTC any longer. Maybe you have not noticed this trend. Maybe you don't actually _use_ Bitcoin?

SegWit as a capacity increase is laughable. Follow me on this...
A SegWit coin is not a Bitcoin. It has a more tenuous security model. (I'll expand on this if you don't yet know why). The owner is able turn a SegWit coin into a Bitcoin to reclaim the stronger Bitcoin security model. While trivial to perform, it requires another transaction. Even before accounting for this shrinkage, SegWit can only 'increase' transaction capacity in proportion to its usage. When do you expect the universal usage of SegWit, which is required to get to 1.7x?

Yes, I am worried that a significant portion of the 'community' will renege on the 2X portion of the deal. Perhaps you have not caught Bobby Lee's tweet on the topic? Though merely posed as a question, it brought the concept out of the dark and exposed the extent of this attitude.

'Next time we need consensus, no one will trust the agreement'... Hello? Hong Kong? Hello?

Maybe you don't quite understand how Bitcoin works. Miners already can make the block size any size they want.
"They vote with their CPU proof-of-worker, expressing their acceptance of valid blocks by working on extending them and rejecting invalid blocks by refusing to work on them. Any needed rules and incentives can be enforced with this consensus mechanism."
 - satoshi, the white paper

Yes. BCC is an attempt to make Bitcoin better. We see the SegWit approach as violative of the current system principles.

[gembitz]

Bitcoin(Tr)ash            

[Meuh6879]

"Release the ... ooooooooh, a liiiiiiiiittle beeeeear ! Kawaiiiiiiiiiii!"