Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rampion]

For the average Joe, Bitcoin is not any more a train about to leave the station.

Make that: "For the average Joe, Bitcoin is not yet a train about to leave the station."

- But it will be. If not this month, then the next. I called a 1-3 month consolidation in 100-120 area before a supermove up. We are right there even now, 4 weeks after the bubble burst. If I panic buy at 144 meanwhile, it is my own problem.

It has plenty of time to go to sub-$100 in May. Even as of this writing, there is $500k bid volume to 102, which is so pathetic that if I show a wall of 1k coins like I did yesterday, it will crash right here and now. It takes about 45 mins to send the coins.

I grant you the bolded part. I think we all agree that long term Bitcoin will be huge - the truth is that we are all bullish about BTC at the end of the day, which is normal because this is bitcointalk.org

We just differ on short-term moves, on which is the top or bottom for the next few days, or weeks… I have to agree with you that it seems that we will not have such a pronounced decline as in 2011, and the recovery will also be faster. Heck, I even think that we won't go below $50 again - that's pretty bullish in my book, considering that in January we were below $20. I don't know if consolidation will be 2-3 months or 6 months, but it definitely doesn't looks like an entire year of decline + another full year for consolidation like we had after the burst of the 2011 bubble.

In 2011 a lot of people screamed "PONZI!!" and turned their backs to BTC. A lot of people thought Bitcoin was gone for good. It seems to me that now the mentality is much different: people knows Bitcoin is here to stay, and it's just a matter of WHEN the next growth cycle will start.

The fact that Paypal, moneygram, and western union are all "looking at bitcoin" will put pressure on each of them to be the first to pull the trigger for obvious reasons. Once that happens any consolidation period will end abruptly. With the aforementioned pressure, I don't see it taking more than a month or two for one of them to get in the game in one way or another because the advantage of being the first in will be massive.

Then there's the whole China ordeal which may or may not amount to anything spectacular, but if nothing else, will make Bitcoin even more enticing to entrepreneurs and established large businesses.

my mBTC.02

All those news are not so important IMO. People just give them too much attention, but it's much more important a real growth in the economy surrounding Bitcoin (products and services) and an improvement on the infrastructure (we need professional exchanges, MtGox is a joke… And we really much need EASIER ways to buy your first Bitcoins).

Yes, of course, if Paypal embraces Bitcoin that means a HUGE growth in both the real economy and the infrastructure surrounding Bitcoin. It seems perfect… But is not. IMO that won't happen. Bitcoin can only kill Paypal, and they know it. They may be looking into it to create their own crypto currency, but there's no way they will embrace the Bitcoin.

Then, about China… Yes, that exposure can help bringing more investors in the very short term. But they will be cautious. As you have seen in 2011 and just a few months ago, real news is when Bitcoin its been consolidated for X time (like it was during all 2012), and then starts to grow steadily and in a sustainable way. Then, it breaks ATH, and the madness start: everybody wants to jump the train as they want to see their fiat go x10, or x100…. There you have the parabolic growth, the bubble… And then the crash, but to a much higher bottom than in the previous bubble. Wash, rinse and repeat.

Remember: when we will go past $266 after a consistent and sustainable growth, that's the news that will trigger again the BTC madness.

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[ChartBuddy]

[solex]

I meant a very bad sign pricewise. So you agree that it seems like we're going down?

No. Check out the hourly chart. The price is coiling for a spike to the upside.

[MickeyT2008]

4000BTC wall appeared at $113, maybe that'll push it down.

[Awhut]

wtf is this 113 wall doing here. Someone wants the price down... And here I was thinking we'd hit 95.

[keewee]

Aaand it's gone

[needmorecoins]

I still see the $130 wall

nvm: it seems to be popping in and out

[MickeyT2008]

Aaand it's gone

Aaand it's back!!  (Unless Mt.Gox is lagging again of course!)

It keeps appearing and disappearing, someone's got a bad case of indecision today.

Gone again!

[Rampion]

I meant a very bad sign pricewise. So you agree that it seems like we're going down?

No. Check out the hourly chart. The price is coiling for a spike to the upside.

We're going down. Bears are bringing in their weapons:

[Awhut]

http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/thumblarge_373/1236712670wGv9B6.jpg

[solex]

[Jaroslaw]

[RationalSpeculator]

  Hmmm, any similarities ...?

lol, that's a good one

Though these example bubble charts also come in flavors

But point taken!

[Miz4r]

So final capitulation is already behind us? That's great news!

[el_rlee]

insider info: through only taking a piece of a chart and zooming in and out you can make any chart look like any other...

[Hawker]

insider info: through only taking a piece of a chart and zooming in and out you can make any chart look like any other...

Oh hush your mouth - that's half the posts on this forum you are depreciating 

[MickeyT2008]

insider info: through only taking a piece of a chart and zooming in and out you can make any chart look like any other...

Oh hush your mouth - that's half the posts on this forum you are depreciating  

The trouble with charts like that is that they're fractal patterns, which as you say look similar at any level of zoom, much like a coastline does.  It's easy to see patterns that aren't really there, or to dismiss ones which are.

[Jaroslaw]

  Hmmm, any similarities ...?

it depends what time frame you use. Now look at the 6m charts.

[Awhut]

Solex you are Bull? If you could buy $90 BTC right now by playing into an established downward trend would you?
(Hint: your answer is also the Market's answer)

[sacko]

it depends what time frame you use. Now look at the 6m charts.

So we are on the way to the "real bottom" now?