Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[thoughtfan]

 However in this instance I think we could see negative repercussions of the Dwolla/mtgox episode rumble on for some time yet.

Its clear that the dwolla mtgox episode will affect the market for some time, but I'm curious what makes you think it will be negative? In the short term, I believe it will push the price up and in the long term provide a new price discovery mechanism (at the moment unknown what exactly that will be) along with much needed diversity on the exchanges.

mtgoxUSD        0.11919918   5,092,881
bitstampUSD     0.11399        774,256
btceUSD         0.109          542,282
cbxUSD          0.10955        124,859

 
These are the bid prices with volumes.

As dominant as the mtgox market is whilst people used to being able to use Dwolla to get USD in and out can only move money from mtgox in Bitcoin I'm not looking at the current mtgox price as reflective of current supply & demand.  I know this thread is about the mtgox walls but the excitement in the last page or so about price 'breakouts' etc. whilst the other exchanges are nowhere near seems short sighted.  I'm simply not trusting the price to give me an impression of sentiment.

One of the service providers was talking about the long process of getting both their bitcoin and dollars out of mtgox and with things as they are it is obvious that arbitrage is simply not happening.  Of course money off of gox trading by other exchanges or otc etc. is good but for now I don't believe we have an operational 'price discovery mechanism' so I don't know what the price 'should be'.  My algorithm, that used by bitpay and mine all come to quite different figures at the moment.

All I'm suggesting is that we don't get carried away by the fact gox is going up right now.  The movement might not be telling you what you think it is!

[1714012530]

1714012530

[Hawker]

Code:

120.10000     33.58015687 
120.00000   4523.48032917 
119.90000    960.47309392 
...snip...

If that pair get dumped we will have a repeat of the dump earlier this week when price fell to $109 from $119.  Be very careful buying now...

[ineededausername]

Code:

120.10000     33.58015687 
120.00000   4523.48032917 
119.90000    960.47309392 
...snip...

If that pair get dumped we will have a repeat of the dump earlier this week when price fell to $109 from $119.  Be very careful buying now...

That dump came because of bad news...

[nagnagnag2]

My screen does look like this:



 

Do you want the patch for this?

[crumbcake]

Code:

 121.00 ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒
 120.50 ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒
 120.00 ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒
 119.50
 119.00

 118.50
 118.00 ▒▒▒
 117.50 ▒▒▒▒
 117.00 ▒▒▒▒
 116.50 ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒
 116.00 ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒

Code:

122.00 ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒
121.00 ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ 
120.00 ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒
119.00

118.00 ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒
117.00 ▒▒▒▒
116.00 ▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒

I like these charts -- enough data, no migraines & i could picture them on:  http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/23/Vt100-adventure.jpg/220px-Vt100-adventure.jpg

[Coinseeker]

Ah the delusions.    Much easier time dropping to 116 than there is of breaking through 120.  Or maybe....we're still in "rally warm-up".  LOL!

[needmorecoins]

Hmm...nothing's changed with Gox/Dwolla?
So is there anyway to tell if this rally is because of the public's bullish sentiment, or because US gox users are converting their fiat into btc and hence causing a rise in price?

[thoughtfan]

Hmm...nothing's changed with Gox/Dwolla?
So is there anyway to tell if this rally is because of the public's bullish sentiment, or because US gox users are converting their fiat into btc and hence causing a rise in price?

I believe not.  People getting excited too because ask side orders are thin on the ground.  It could as many appear to believe, be because we're about to hit a nice well-due rise in price.  But how would the ask order side look if people were simply moving their bitcoin off gox?  Mmm!

[michaelGedi]

Hmm...nothing's changed with Gox/Dwolla?
So is there anyway to tell if this rally is because of the public's bullish sentiment, or because US gox users are converting their fiat into btc and hence causing a rise in price?

1+1 = 2?  


I mean, why not buy coins instead of fiat if there is a lot to be bullish about anyways... My only fear is that if gox news happens to hit bitcoin hard, plus some other negative news (who knows), how much of a dump will occur on exchanges like bitstamp with minimal bid walls.


For now I'm all in though

[Ultraviolet]

Hmm...nothing's changed with Gox/Dwolla?
So is there anyway to tell if this rally is because of the public's bullish sentiment, or because US gox users are converting their fiat into btc and hence causing a rise in price?

IMO whoever was converting all their fiat to BTC and moving it off Gox would have done it during/after the immediate sell off, with the late-to-the-party group doing it before/immediately after that 4 hour DDOS.

Panic/danger sentiment is down and the price is up, so it's much less likely for Gox exodus to be the cause.

Market showed an immense amount of support for 110-115 after the panic news, the red candles, and the DDOS. I think that's why sentiment is more bullish.

[samson]

Hmm...nothing's changed with Gox/Dwolla?
So is there anyway to tell if this rally is because of the public's bullish sentiment, or because US gox users are converting their fiat into btc and hence causing a rise in price?

Buying Bitcoin is converting fiat into BTC.

I see what you're trying to do here, you're talking about some kind of mass exodus from MtGox because people can't withdraw USD from MtGox.

You're completely wrong though. If you want to make a withdrawal from MtGox you simply do a wire transfer.

If you can't afford to to a wire transfer it's because you're trading tiny amounts of USD - this won't affect the price at all in any way whatsoever.

The rally trades have been $10k-$100k - these people don't fund their accounts with Dwolla.

The standard way to move large amounts of money around the world has always been bank wires (SWIFT payments) - Dwolla allows people to send smaller amounts of money for less fees.

So to sum it up : Dwolla is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

It's useful (was useful) to people who want to purchase small amounts of BTC ($5k or less) with very low transaction fees.

[wonkytonky]

dwolla just may have started the uptrend again. .. sure we will see some corrections but i think the mid term down trend is over now.

if not fine.. i'm happy with movment.. up or down

[needmorecoins]

Hmm...nothing's changed with Gox/Dwolla?
So is there anyway to tell if this rally is because of the public's bullish sentiment, or because US gox users are converting their fiat into btc and hence causing a rise in price?

Buying Bitcoin is converting fiat into BTC.

I see what you're trying to do here, you're talking about some kind of mass exodus from MtGox because people can't withdraw USD from MtGox.

You're completely wrong though. If you want to make a withdrawal from MtGox you simply do a wire transfer.

If you can't afford to to a wire transfer it's because you're trading tiny amounts of USD - this won't affect the price at all in any way whatsoever.

The rally trades have been $10k-$100k - these people don't fund their accounts with Dwolla.

The standard way to move large amounts of money around the world has always been bank wires (SWIFT payments) - Dwolla allows people to send smaller amounts of money for less fees.

So to sum it up : Dwolla is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

It's useful (was useful) to people who want to purchase small amounts of BTC ($5k or less) with very low transaction fees.

Ah ok, not from US so no idea how US people get their money into Gox, or the limitations.

[michaelGedi]

You're completely wrong though. If you want to make a withdrawal from MtGox you simply do a wire transfer.

walls on bitstamp are the largest I've ever seen them though...

[bito]

You're completely wrong though. If you want to make a withdrawal from MtGox you simply do a wire transfer.

There are withdrawal limits for transferring cash out of MtGox though.

https://support.mtgox.com/entries/20919111-AML-Account-Statuses

[samson]

You're completely wrong though. If you want to make a withdrawal from MtGox you simply do a wire transfer.

There are withdrawal limits for transferring cash out of MtGox though.

https://support.mtgox.com/entries/20919111-AML-Account-Statuses

Yes, you have to get 'verified' which for most people won't be an issue.

It's just a matter of sending a copy of your ID and a utility bill and waiting for them to approve it.

[y2kcamaross]

You're completely wrong though. If you want to make a withdrawal from MtGox you simply do a wire transfer.

There are withdrawal limits for transferring cash out of MtGox though.

https://support.mtgox.com/entries/20919111-AML-Account-Statuses

Yes, you have to get 'verified' which for most people won't be an issue.

It's just a matter of sending a copy of your ID and a utility bill and waiting for them to approve it.

you still have a $1,000 daily limit with that, you need some notoarized crap to raise it

[bito]

US$50k+ means a 32 day wait for all your money if you are verified

[samson]

you still have a $1,000 daily limit with that, you need some notoarized crap to raise it

Not quite - you just have to email them to increase it :

The "verified" status is designed for active traders and/or small companies.

After you have been verified, if you would like to request a withdrawal limit increase (up to 10x your current daily limit, and up to 5x your current monthly limit), please contact support@mtgox.com with the below.

[samson]

US$50k+ means a 32 day wait for all your money if you are verified

Considering the limits on Dwolla were $5k I don't think this is going to be an issue for most Dwolla users.

This is why it's not going to affect the price much as the big buyers are already using wire transfers.