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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26337046 times)
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Its About Sharing
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May 20, 2013, 05:29:41 PM
 #9741


What if it drops $1000 in a day? - oh but wait, it can't!, and though I really do get what crumbcake was getting at invoking Pascal's Wager it is a fact only one side has a limit to its movement in a day.

But the price doesn't have to fall $1000 in a day.  The price can half as often as it can double.  Here's a neat puzzle for you:

1.  You're given a sealed envelope, and are told (truthfully) that it contains $100.
2.  The man who gave you the envelope presents two other, identical looking envelopes.  He informs you that one of the envelopes contains exactly $50 (half of the money you hold), and the other $200 (double the money you hold).  
3  He offers you a chance to swap your envelope for one of the two presented envelopes.  
4.  Seems like it's in your best interest to swap, since if you choose badly (the $50 envelope), you only lose $50 (you had $100 before the swap).  If you choose well (the $200 envelope), you win $100.  Odds of you choosing the $200 envelope are 50/50, while you could win double of what you could lose. Cheesy

See the problem?  Or did i misinterpret what you were trying to say?




Your complicating something quite simple by talking in analogies, which in this case is really missing the point.

Do you believe in BTC? If not then don't partake. Is it an investment? Then find your entry point. Really quite simple.

As I said above, I believe in what it means and what it stands for. Nothing complicated, no TA needed, just looking at the world and what bankers are doing to it is enough for me to make my "donation" to a better cause. We will be in this together anyway.

It's about sharing

I'm not sure how ideology manages to creep into a speculation forum Huh  In particular, the Wall Movement thread Huh  As i understand it, I don't have to buy into an ideology to trade in Bitcoin.  If you feel that trading Bitcoin must be propped up with calls to "donate to a cause," that sort-a spooks me from buyin'.

Edit:  Why should it matter if I believe in BTC as long as i think there's money to be made?  If i buy in -- good for you & Bitcoin.  If I stay out -- more Bitcoinz left for you?  Seems like a win/win?

Fair enough with the idealogies, but the point remains - If you wait for it to drop and it doesn't and instead shoots up $100 or $200 in a day, you will be there with cash and no BTC. I think that is a much much bigger gamble than buying some BTC now, especially since we retraced and are getting stable (and the whole China, Rushia pay pal, VC money, etc. news)
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May 20, 2013, 05:33:24 PM
 #9742

If we look at the market cap of ripple (which now apparently is TWICE that of bitcoin), we're only decimal shifting away from the price of bitcoin exploding. The human psyche is interesting. The same applies to alternative currencies. It's like if people are unable to think in anything but units. "Oh, 1 BTC costs $122, that's very costly". Yet, ripple costs twice that, if you where to divide by total units. Pretty ridiculous, and a very good reason to adapt mBTC.

A similar effect could even be accomplished by multiplying all bitcoins in existence with say 100x. So everyone who now owns 1 BTC will suddenly own 100 BTC, with a limt of 2100 million instead of 21 million. There is no difference, but I'm convinced the psychological effect of a change like this would cause massive increase in the price.

The evidence is right in front of our eyes, ripple has nowhere the same adaption as bitcoin.

What's happening with Ripple is a joke. A couple of months ago they gave away 50K to anybody with a bitcointalk.org account who asked for it. A lot of members bought forum accounts, and have accumulated hundreds of thousand/millions of XRP.

Today, $1 buys you roughly 50 Ripples - that means that the Ripple founders just "gave away" $1,000 to everybody who asked for them a couple of months ago, and they are sitting on +$1B potential profit at this very moment - with their buggy software in early Beta, with only a trusted Gateway in the system (Bitstamp) and without having proved anything (there's a lot of security concernes that need to be tested). Obviously the $1,5B market cap is just "theory", because there is no market for 100B Ripples ATM, but it illustrates how crazy is this shit, and how rich the OpenCoin founders can become with their business model.

Even if Ripple is "half a failure", they will be all set for life. IMO it's an horrible product from a philosophic point of view (actually it allows anyone to create "money out of thin air" through IOU's, I can foresee epic scams coming, everybody can be a bank running fractional reserve), but it is a BRILLIANT idea for their creators.. It's the ultimate get-rich-quick scheme.... But only for them.

As soon as they want to cash out, they will destroy the market - heck, they say the will hold onto 20% of the total currency that will ever be created. And now tell me about the FED. They are the ultimate centralized power.

sorry for the following lazy, cliched response to your post, but:

+1
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May 20, 2013, 05:36:09 PM
 #9743

Question for you wall watchers:

I noticed this Friday that the amount of Asks (sells) at 100k volume jumped from the range of $170-$180 in May to $330 3 days ago and $245 the last two days?

Any ideas here?
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May 20, 2013, 05:42:28 PM
 #9744

If we look at the market cap of ripple (which now apparently is TWICE that of bitcoin), we're only decimal shifting away from the price of bitcoin exploding. The human psyche is interesting. The same applies to alternative currencies. It's like if people are unable to think in anything but units. "Oh, 1 BTC costs $122, that's very costly". Yet, ripple costs twice that, if you where to divide by total units. Pretty ridiculous, and a very good reason to adapt mBTC.

A similar effect could even be accomplished by multiplying all bitcoins in existence with say 100x. So everyone who now owns 1 BTC will suddenly own 100 BTC, with a limt of 2100 million instead of 21 million. There is no difference, but I'm convinced the psychological effect of a change like this would cause massive increase in the price.

The evidence is right in front of our eyes, ripple has nowhere the same adaption as bitcoin.

What's happening with Ripple is a joke. A couple of months ago they gave away 50K to anybody with a bitcointalk.org account who asked for it. A lot of members bought forum accounts, and have accumulated hundreds of thousand/millions of XRP.

Today, $1 buys you roughly 50 Ripples - that means that the Ripple founders just "gave away" $1,000 to everybody who asked for them a couple of months ago, and they are sitting on +$1B potential profit at this very moment - with their buggy software in early Beta, with only a trusted Gateway in the system (Bitstamp) and without having proved anything (there's a lot of security concernes that need to be tested). Obviously the $1,5B market cap is just "theory", because there is no market for 100B Ripples ATM, but it illustrates how crazy is this shit, and how rich the OpenCoin founders can become with their business model.

Even if Ripple is "half a failure", they will be all set for life. IMO it's an horrible product from a philosophic point of view (actually it allows anyone to create "money out of thin air" through IOU's, I can foresee epic scams coming, everybody can be a bank running fractional reserve), but it is a BRILLIANT idea for their creators.. It's the ultimate get-rich-quick scheme.... But only for them.

As soon as they want to cash out, they will destroy the market - heck, they say the will hold onto 20% of the total currency that will ever be created. And now tell me about the FED. They are the ultimate centralized power.
+1

But why? god why are people paying that much? It's not possible to justify such massive market cap when bitcoin, which has been here for years and has countless merchants, is worth less. It must be purely human psyche at play. People are unable to differentiate between units of different market caps and it leads to it being ridiculously overpriced.

There are people getting rich here, without bringing much value to the table. I'm definitivly not buying ripples any time soon.
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May 20, 2013, 05:52:37 PM
 #9745

I feel bad now for selling 50k XRP for 1 BTC. They accidentally sent me 100k XRP, so I still have 50k left. Wonder if I should sell..
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May 20, 2013, 05:52:59 PM
 #9746

Why would you be comfortable leaving 3035BTC @ $333, right now? And same question for the next 10KBTC up to $1000000? Discuss
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May 20, 2013, 05:57:52 PM
 #9747

If we look at the market cap of ripple (which now apparently is TWICE that of bitcoin), we're only decimal shifting away from the price of bitcoin exploding. The human psyche is interesting. The same applies to alternative currencies. It's like if people are unable to think in anything but units. "Oh, 1 BTC costs $122, that's very costly". Yet, ripple costs twice that, if you where to divide by total units. Pretty ridiculous, and a very good reason to adapt mBTC.

A similar effect could even be accomplished by multiplying all bitcoins in existence with say 100x. So everyone who now owns 1 BTC will suddenly own 100 BTC, with a limt of 2100 million instead of 21 million. There is no difference, but I'm convinced the psychological effect of a change like this would cause massive increase in the price.

The evidence is right in front of our eyes, ripple has nowhere the same adaption as bitcoin.

What's happening with Ripple is a joke. A couple of months ago they gave away 50K to anybody with a bitcointalk.org account who asked for it. A lot of members bought forum accounts, and have accumulated hundreds of thousand/millions of XRP.

Today, $1 buys you roughly 50 Ripples - that means that the Ripple founders just "gave away" $1,000 to everybody who asked for them a couple of months ago, and they are sitting on +$1B potential profit at this very moment - with their buggy software in early Beta, with only a trusted Gateway in the system (Bitstamp) and without having proved anything (there's a lot of security concernes that need to be tested). Obviously the $1,5B market cap is just "theory", because there is no market for 100B Ripples ATM, but it illustrates how crazy is this shit, and how rich the OpenCoin founders can become with their business model.

Even if Ripple is "half a failure", they will be all set for life. IMO it's an horrible product from a philosophic point of view (actually it allows anyone to create "money out of thin air" through IOU's, I can foresee epic scams coming, everybody can be a bank running fractional reserve), but it is a BRILLIANT idea for their creators.. It's the ultimate get-rich-quick scheme.... But only for them.

As soon as they want to cash out, they will destroy the market - heck, they say the will hold onto 20% of the total currency that will ever be created. And now tell me about the FED. They are the ultimate centralized power.
+1

But why? god why are people paying that much? It's not possible to justify such massive market cap when bitcoin, which has been here for years and has countless merchants, is worth less. It must be purely human psyche at play. People are unable to differentiate between units of different market caps and it leads to it being ridiculously overpriced.

There are people getting rich here, without bringing much value to the table. I'm definitivly not buying ripples any time soon.

Because people love get-rich-quick schemes, and they do not realize that it's stupid to play a game where a single entity controls all the cards (the Ripples, controlled by OpenCoin). The game is rigged, it's simply the opposite of Bitcoin.

Everybody buying Ripples think they will be so smart that they will be the first in, the first out - so they will profit from the pump before the dump.

But I really do not understand how Bitcoin supporters can also support Ripple. Ripple is everything Bitcoin fights: centralized, based on debt, allows anybody to run spiral-of-debt scams, fractional reserve games... Heck, in fact what Ripple does is bringing to the average Joe the possibility to run their own debt-based scam, in the same form as traditional banks do.

Check what's happening in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=206948.0

TradeFortress, in a genius move, is exposing what I'm explaining: he is creating money out of thin air (455 BTC up to now), money he is giving away, but that he could have actually used to buy goods. Yeah, the fools are the ones granting to him the trust for him to act as a Gateway, but this will happen over and over: in Ripple you can work on your trust, have people trusting you X amount, and you can create debt out of that shit, then default and disappear - as banks do, but with Ripple you can do it in a "distributed" way. What a JOKE.

Check it out, the first fool lost 10.5 REAL blockchain BTC and now he is left holding IOU's - good luck with that, we can see that he is in fact he first Ripple user to be "left holding the bag".

My opinion:

fuck get-rich-quick schemes, fuck premined scams
fuck "paper" money, fuck IOU's, fuck debt: we want REAL money in its digital form, and this is why Bitcoin was created

EDIT: 1 Bitcoin is 1 Bitcoin - it has to be in the blockchain. Bitcoin in Ripple is not Bitcoin, is just debt. I wonder what Satoshi would say about this.
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May 20, 2013, 06:02:41 PM
 #9748

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Last edit: May 20, 2013, 06:19:49 PM by Coinseeker
 #9749

Tradeforest is a fraud who in all his insecurities is completely afraid of Ripple.  He knows the flaws of Bitcoin, as do many of you, and it frightens him and many of you, that Ripple has aimed to fix them.  

Also, if you're going to explain Ripple, at least do it with integrity.  Ripple is still in beta and will be decentralized upon release of the server source code.  Sure, they render your mining efforts useless and for good reason but to flat out lie about Ripple either shows you don't know what you're talking about or you too are afraid of Ripple because of the deep seeded insecurities, that lie with the flaws of Bitcoin. That which the Bitcoin community refuses to address.  

As they say, you snooze you loose and never is this more true than in the world of technology.  Lastly, Ripple is not a competitor of Bitcoin and that is the truth.  It's a delusion that some have created in their own minds, again from their own insecurites.  Ripple is a compliment to Bitcoin and will allow Bitcoin to achieve the mass adoption that would take decades under current tactics.  (You know, begging merchants.)

EDIT:  And it was Tradeforest that manipulated and robbed that poor kid for 10.5 BTC.  Ripple only does what you tell it to do and Tradeforest used his Hero status to gain the trust of noobs.  The flaw is not with Ripple, the flaw is with the scammer known as TradeFortress.  (Yeah, I'll spell it right this time.)
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May 20, 2013, 06:19:45 PM
 #9750

Tradeforest is a fraud who in all his insecurities is completely afraid of Ripple.  He knows the flaws of Bitcoin, as do many of you, and it frightens him and many of you, that Ripple has aimed to fix them.  

Also, if you're going to explain Ripple, at least do it with integrity.  Ripple is still in beta and will be decentralized upon release of the server source code.  Sure, they render your mining efforts useless and for good reason but to flat out lie about Ripple either shows you don't know what you're talking about or you too are afraid of Ripple because of the deep seeded insecurities, that lie with the flaws of Bitcoin. That which the Bitcoin community refuses to address.  As they say, you snooze you loose and never is this more true than in the world of technology.

I'm quite sure you are into Bitcoin only because you are into get-rich-quick schemes, and that's why I'm sure you are also holding Ripples.

But you do not understand Bitcoin is a revolution - a movement. It is about being debt-free, about saying fuck off to fractional reserve. Is about holding a real asset and not debt-backed valueless paper.

Ripple is just taking the old banking system (which is just accounting and debt transfers) to a distributed level, while introduces its very own premined currency.

From one side, in Ripple you have "the old banking system" in his distributed version: which is a debt-based scam that allows anybody to create money from thin air, while the weakest links are left holding the bag. Nothing new under the sun.

From the other side, you have the "cryptocurrency" inside Ripple, the XRP: which is just a premined scam, where ALL the coins have been created by a private entity for its own profit. OpenCoin will distribute their crypto as they wish, hoping that it will increase in value because everything else in Ripple is just "paper scams".

It's the third time I tell you, Coinseeker: you do not understand Bitcoin. You do not understand its deep revolutionary implications. Bitcoin is meant to set you free, while Ripple is meant for their creators to be rich.

Bitcoin solves a huge problem in money transfer: TRUST. You only need to trust maths in Bitcoin. With Ripple, is the opposite - you have to blindly trust a lot of things.
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May 20, 2013, 06:22:45 PM
 #9751

Quote
Ripple
i think we all should do some home work

from what i've read ripple can become a powerful tool. and bitcoin would be better off if every bitcoiner knew exactly what it is all about and how to use it.

 
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May 20, 2013, 06:27:18 PM
 #9752

Quote
Ripple
i think we all should do some home work
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May 20, 2013, 06:28:58 PM
 #9753

Tradeforest is a fraud who in all his insecurities is completely afraid of Ripple.  He knows the flaws of Bitcoin, as do many of you, and it frightens him and many of you, that Ripple has aimed to fix them.  

Also, if you're going to explain Ripple, at least do it with integrity.  Ripple is still in beta and will be decentralized upon release of the server source code.  Sure, they render your mining efforts useless and for good reason but to flat out lie about Ripple either shows you don't know what you're talking about or you too are afraid of Ripple because of the deep seeded insecurities, that lie with the flaws of Bitcoin. That which the Bitcoin community refuses to address.  As they say, you snooze you loose and never is this more true than in the world of technology.

I'm quite sure you are into Bitcoin only because you are into get-rich-quick schemes, and that's why I'm sure you are also holding Ripples.

But you do not understand Bitcoin is a revolution - a movement. It is about being debt-free, about saying fuck off to fractional reserve. Is about holding a real asset and not debt-backed valueless paper.

Ripple is just taking the old banking system (which is just accounting and debt transfers) to a distributed level, while introduces its very own premined currency.

From one side, in Ripple you have "the old banking system" in his distributed version: which is a debt-based scam that allows anybody to create money from thin air, while the weakest links are left holding the bag. Nothing new under the sun.

From the other side, you have the "cryptocurrency" inside Ripple, the XRP: which is just a premined scam, where ALL the coins have been created by a private entity for its own profit. OpenCoin will distribute their crypto as they wish, hoping that it will increase in value because everything else in Ripple is just "paper scams".

It's the third time I tell you, Coinseeker: you do not understand Bitcoin. You do not understand its deep revolutionary implications. Bitcoin is meant to set you free, while Ripple is meant for their creators to be rich.

Bitcoin solves a huge problem in money transfer: TRUST. You only need to trust maths in Bitcoin. With Ripple, is the opposite - you have to blindly trust a lot of things.

+1 & Well Said.
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May 20, 2013, 06:30:14 PM
 #9754

Tradeforest is a fraud who in all his insecurities is completely afraid of Ripple.  He knows the flaws of Bitcoin, as do many of you, and it frightens him and many of you, that Ripple has aimed to fix them.  

Also, if you're going to explain Ripple, at least do it with integrity.  Ripple is still in beta and will be decentralized upon release of the server source code.  Sure, they render your mining efforts useless and for good reason but to flat out lie about Ripple either shows you don't know what you're talking about or you too are afraid of Ripple because of the deep seeded insecurities, that lie with the flaws of Bitcoin. That which the Bitcoin community refuses to address.  As they say, you snooze you loose and never is this more true than in the world of technology.

Quote
I'm quite sure you are into Bitcoin only because you are into get-rich-quick schemes, and that's why I'm sure you are also holding Ripples.

I have 310 XRP's, so know what you're talking about before you challenge my motives.

Quote
But you do not understand Bitcoin is a revolution - a movement. It is about being debt-free, about saying fuck off to fractional reserve. Is about holding a real asset and not debt-backed valueless paper.

Yawn.  That's your view of Bitcoin.  I simply see it as a virtual currency.  Nothing more.  You can keep the ideology to yourself.  I don't care.

Quote
Ripple is just taking the old banking system (which is just accounting and debt transfers) to a distributed level, while introduces its very own premined currency.

From one side, in Ripple you have "the old banking system" in his distributed version: which is a debt-based scam that allows anybody to create money from thin air, while the weakest links are left holding the bag. Nothing new under the sun.

Again more lies.  You can not create currency out of thin air.  You can create IOU's (I owe you) and get people to trust you to honor your IOU's but that is not creating currency.  That is building trust.   Personally, I wouldn't trust anyone but a gateway.  

Quote
From the other side, you have the "cryptocurrency" inside Ripple, the XRP: which is just a premined scam, where ALL the coins have been created by a private entity for its own profit. OpenCoin will distribute their crypto as they wish, hoping that it will increase in value because everything else in Ripple is just "paper scams".

Here's the real butt hurt tale of the story.  Ripple renders your expensive mining rigs useless.  Awwww....poor baby.  Put it up on ebay and get your money back.

Quote
It's the third time I tell you, Coinseeker: you do not understand Bitcoin. You do not understand its deep revolutionary implications. Bitcoin is meant to set you free, while Ripple is meant for their creators to be rich.

Bitcoin solves a huge problem in money transfer: TRUST. You only need to trust maths in Bitcoin. With Ripple, is the opposite - you have to blindly trust a lot of things.

I understand Bitcoin just fine, I just reject your ideology.  And since no one group can determine what Bitcoin is or will be, you're say is as valid as mine.  No more so that the new guy who buys Bitcoins today.  I think it's you that dosen't understand....we, the masses do NOT CARE ABOUT YOUR SILLY REVOLUTION.  We don't care.  That's at least the 3rd time I've had to tell you that.

Your prehistoric and primate thinking is exactly what left the door open for a Ripple to change the game.  I'm glad and I'll use my favorite analogy:

Bitcoin = Napster
Ripple = iTunes
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May 20, 2013, 06:31:10 PM
 #9755

Quote
Ripple
i think we all should do some home work

from what i've read ripple can become a powerful tool. and bitcoin would be better off if every bitcoiner knew exactly what it is all about and how to use it.

 
but as i understand it XRP should have very little value, i think people are confused and bidding it up without thinking....
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May 20, 2013, 06:31:42 PM
 #9756

Quote
Ripple
i think we all should do some home work


lol
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May 20, 2013, 06:33:44 PM
 #9757

Quote
Ripple
i think we all should do some home work

from what i've read ripple can become a powerful tool. and bitcoin would be better off if every bitcoiner knew exactly what it is all about and how to use it.

 
but as i understand it XRP should have very little value, i think people are confused and bidding it up without thinking....

I said this before, I sold my gifted XRP for a little over 1 BTC and felt great about it because that was way over what they're worth. I cannot believe they are worth >8 times that now.

Mr. Market is a cray fellow Smiley
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May 20, 2013, 06:34:50 PM
 #9758

Quote
Ripple
i think we all should do some home work

from what i've read ripple can become a powerful tool. and bitcoin would be better off if every bitcoiner knew exactly what it is all about and how to use it.

I really did the last days.

I also spent REAL money (10BTC) to buy some K's of XRPs, just to test their bult-in trade system.

And I'm convinced it's a fucked up system.

Not because is not useful (it is useful)

Bad because it is:

a) everything Bitcoin was designed to address (trust-based system, WTF man? Bitcoin very first purpose is to address the need of trust in money transmitting)
b) a premined scam

And no, Adam, NO: it won't do any good to Bitcoin. Users of Ripple may realize that the fiat currencies their are exchanging are just valueless IOU0's, a debt ticking-bomb about to explode, so they may prefer the crypto, as we prefer BTC to USD - but the crypto they will prefer is XRP, 100% premined by a private company.

Trust the blockchain, trust your private keys, trust bitcoin. Not a private coin on a system based on trusting third-parties (firstly and foremost OpenCoin; then, your Gateways).

And think about this: OpenCoin will hold to 50% of the total Ripples created. You need to grant them a LOT of trust to place money in XRPs. They can crash the market with a fart, and they may be very well decide to hold onto 80% on the XRPs. Or to 90%. They won't tell you, because they don't know, they will just do what it suits best to them.

Now compare that shit with BTC, my friend.
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May 20, 2013, 06:35:49 PM
 #9759

Another report of no change:  Low volume & diverse bid prices across the exchanges.

 

Anybody know if there's a corresponding (or any significant) increase in off-exchange trades such as on OTC/ LocalBitcoins etc.?
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May 20, 2013, 06:36:06 PM
 #9760

Quote
Ripple
i think we all should do some home work

from what i've read ripple can become a powerful tool. and bitcoin would be better off if every bitcoiner knew exactly what it is all about and how to use it.

 
but as i understand it XRP should have very little value, i think people are confused and bidding it up without thinking....

This is a true statement.  Pure speculation is driving XRP prices.  There is no justification for it other than greed.
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