Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[niothor]

Rampion , sorry to say but you're messing up with adoption rate / price.

Just because the value has gone up to 130 , it doesn't mean there are 10x users than last year or we're doing 10x transactions.

Looking at the charts it's clearly that the whole bitpay propaganda "we're adding 100 merchants a day" is just bull* or they add those merchants but receive no sales.

Currently the price is based more on "what bitcoin will be" than is actual value.

And I have the bad feeling that we missed a one in a life time chance when we were in the spotlight to gain more people to use bitcoins.

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[Le Happy Merchant]

And I have the bad feeling that we missed a one in a life time chance when we were in the spotlight to gain more people to use bitcoins.

Is that a feeling you would be willing to bet on?

[niothor]

And I have the bad feeling that we missed a one in a life time chance when we were in the spotlight to gain more people to use bitcoins.

Is that a feeling you would be willing to bet on?

For me it would be a safe bet
missed chance at least I won the bet / no missed chance at least my bitcoins will be worth more

In your case you risk to end up with a double loss.

[ChartBuddy]

[Le Happy Merchant]

And I have the bad feeling that we missed a one in a life time chance when we were in the spotlight to gain more people to use bitcoins.

Is that a feeling you would be willing to bet on?

For me it would be a safe bet
missed chance at least I won the bet / no missed chance at least my bitcoins will be worth more

In your case you risk to end up with a double loss.

Well that's one way of looking at it, but it's wrong.

I am willing to bet 1 BTC that within two years there will be at least 10 times as many people using Bitcoin than use it today, as indicated by the number of client downloads. If you really think it's a safe bet, and you really think we missed our chance to get users, put up.

[Its About Sharing]

There will be proper demand of Bitcoin regardless of it being legal or illegal in the US, I can guarantee you that.

Yes, but if it's going to be illegal, or even semi-illegal in the US, it will be much less attractive as an investment.

There's real, actual demand for BTC, namely drug trade and gambling. They represent less than ten percent of the total demand, everything else is speculative investment.

I would call it a gamble more than an investment. There are so many things that can go south, and one of them is precisely the very real possibility of it being declared illegal by one or more Governments.

I agree that after we reached $20 at the en of January there was an explosion of speculative activity around Bitcoin, and that's why the price skyrocketed so fast. But real demand besides of speculation will grow steadily and quicker than before, now that Bitcoin has been exposed to the whole world.

Based on what, gut feeling?  Certainly not facts.  Bitcoin is slow and extremely complicated.  You have to be above average technical to even consider using it and then, who's going to want to when you can't spend it anywhere except to do illegal stuff?  

So, you're doing something that's super complicated.  That's slow and could never handle micro transactions.  That in this scenario presented would be illegal, thus you risk jail time all to buy a digital "currency" that you can only use to buy illegal stuff.  And somehow despite all this, you think it's just going to keep growing and achieve mass adoption?  It is the speculation thread but I think it's a flawed piece of speculation you've laid out.  More like a dream with zero basis in reality.

And with that, I'll take my Hero Member badge.   

Welcome back the Coinseeker that we have been waiting on.   

Bitcoin is super fast, isn't that the point? I think you meant the confirmations? Yeah, they need to work on speeding that up and there is a work a round using a "trusted" buyer system. Sounds like Ripple, but with a money that they don't need to give away to be accepted. ehehe

Complicated - Well, considering it is pretty new, I'd say that is debatable. The VC money coming in will address this. Nothing shocking here. I remember the internet pre Netscape Navigator - THAT WAS COMPLICATED and look where it ended up. We are doing fine, but of course things need to be improved upon.

You are criticizing a very new technology that is still getting the bugs worked out and all the while is worth over 1.5 or so Billion dollars. Not bad. Imagine if it wasn't "complicated" where we'd be at. 


Patience Grasshopper, patience...

[niothor]

And I have the bad feeling that we missed a one in a life time chance when we were in the spotlight to gain more people to use bitcoins.

Is that a feeling you would be willing to bet on?

For me it would be a safe bet
missed chance at least I won the bet / no missed chance at least my bitcoins will be worth more

In your case you risk to end up with a double loss.

Well that's one way of looking at it, but it's wrong.

I am willing to bet 1 BTC that within two years there will be at least 10 times as many people using Bitcoin than use it today, as indicated by the number of client downloads. If you really think it's a safe bet, and you really think we missed our chance to get users, put up.

Client downloads number is worth *******.
And , you assume a mass adoption with 10x number of people in two years? Are you joking?

We currently have 55k transactions a day (just double from the lowest point in 2012) , so 550k would be that amazing?
And remember , transactions outside the top100 (sd/pools etc.) are just half of it.

[Rampion]

@Coinseeker:

1) you don't seem to understand that black market is not "tiny". It's a 1,800 billion/year economy. Do the maths.

2) you don't seem to know that the Bitcoin concept was born in cyberpunk and crypto-anarchists circles, and that was designed with very "unpatriotic" characteristics at its core. It's decentralized and trust-free (do you understand what does this implies for the US Gov and the FED?), and it is conceived from the very beginning to be resilient to Governments attacks. I wonder why someone like you is interested in such a concept.

Then, you mock me up because I said that real demand brought BTC to "a whole $14" from $0.07. You are blind if you do not see how immense growth is x200 in just a couple of years because of the demand generated by two tiny businesses (SD and SR). And you are just plainly ignorant if you do not understand how huge is the potential growth regardless of BTC being banned or semi-illegal. Give it time, and then we will discuss.

Just because the value has gone up to 130 , it doesn't mean there are 10x users than last year or we're doing 10x transactions.

Currently the price is based more on "what bitcoin will be" than is actual value.

True, the current price is based on speculation. The "natural" demand of BTC brought us to $14, and based on current electricity costs (miners won't sell their coins at a loss) the speculation-less price for 1BTC it's around $50. This is hard math, not speculation. Just check the numbers yourself.

Difficulty and thus electricity cost per BTC will keep increasing, and "real economy" around BTC will grow accordingly, as it always did: if there is a global ban (almost impossible), we will still have black market economy + "idealists" using it, and that will lead to steady (but slower) growth. If there is an US ban (unlikely at this point, but a possibility somewhere in the future), we will still have increasing demand all over the rest of the world, which will lead us to exponential growth. If there is no ban at all, even better for us all.

There are only two lethal threats to Bitcoin:

a) the development of a superior crypto-currency with the same core characteristics (trust-free and decentralized and thus immune to Government attacks)
b) a fatal flaw in the technology of the protocol (highly unlikely at this point)

Every other scenario has been analyzed, and Bitcoin is designed to rise stronger from those scenarios, including a Government ban.

[notme]

And I have the bad feeling that we missed a one in a life time chance when we were in the spotlight to gain more people to use bitcoins.

Is that a feeling you would be willing to bet on?

For me it would be a safe bet
missed chance at least I won the bet / no missed chance at least my bitcoins will be worth more

In your case you risk to end up with a double loss.

Well that's one way of looking at it, but it's wrong.

I am willing to bet 1 BTC that within two years there will be at least 10 times as many people using Bitcoin than use it today, as indicated by the number of client downloads. If you really think it's a safe bet, and you really think we missed our chance to get users, put up.

Client downloads number is worth *******.
And , you assume a mass adoption with 10x number of people in two years? Are you joking?

We currently have 55k transactions a day (just double from the lowest point in 2012) , so 550k would be that amazing?
And remember , transactions outside the top100 (sd/pools etc.) are just half of it.

Bitcoin can't do more than about 605k transactions a day without a hard fork.

[niothor]

Bitcoin can't do more than about 605k transactions a day without a hard fork.

Are you sure about that number?

[aepfel]

Bitcoin can't do more than about 605k transactions a day without a hard fork.

Are you sure about that number?

max. transactions/second is atm artifactionaly keept low to not blow up blockchainsize unnecessarily.

edit: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability for the ones that want to read it but to lazy to google.

[niothor]

Bitcoin can't do more than about 605k transactions a day without a hard fork.

Are you sure about that number?

max. transactions/second is atm artifactionaly keept low to not blow up blockchainsize unnecessarily.

Yeah , I know that but , I was under the impresion that 360k/day is the transaction limit.

[notme]

Bitcoin can't do more than about 605k transactions a day without a hard fork.

Are you sure about that number?

From the page aepfel linked:

Today the Bitcoin network is restricted to a sustained rate of 7 tps by some artificial limits.

7*3600*24 = 604800

[ErisDiscordia]

I often wonder why it is that some violently fight the idea of any aspect of human interaction being unregulated by some sort of central authority. Why is that? Not being able to conceive of such arrangements working due to lack of imagination? General mistrust of people? Sincere belief that everything under the sun just works out better if we have a single set of rules enforced by deadly force? Honestly, I don't really get it.

I'm happy to see a concept like Bitcoin coming along and (so far) proving that free human interaction is not only possible, but desirable.

Also to all those people wanting Bitcoin (and everything else) to submit to regulation: there is a number of people (like me) who desire freedom from regulation. Due to moral/ethical considerations or due to their conviction that plurality of options and freedom to experiment ultimately bring about better results and stability. This number keeps growing with every disaster brought about by regulation and central planning. Perhaps one day we will reach a critical mass of people desiring freedom and being willing and able to take responsibility for it.

As long as there is no choice and no option for people not wanting to submit, all we really have tyranny.

[niothor]

Bitcoin can't do more than about 605k transactions a day without a hard fork.

Are you sure about that number?

From the page aepfel linked:

Today the Bitcoin network is restricted to a sustained rate of 7 tps by some artificial limits.

7*3600*24 = 604800

That makes sense , my bad.

[Its About Sharing]

@Coinseeker:

1) you don't seem to understand that black market is not "tiny". It's a 1,800 billion/year economy. Do the maths.

2) you don't seem to know that the Bitcoin concept was born in cyberpunk and crypto-anarchists circles, and that was designed with very "unpatriotic" characteristics at its core. It's decentralized and trust-free (do you understand what does this implies for the US Gov and the FED?), and it is conceived from the very beginning to be resilient to Governments attacks. I wonder why someone like you is interested in such a concept.

Then, you mock me up because I said that real demand brought BTC to "a whole $14" from $0.07. You are blind if you do not see how immense growth is x200 in just a couple of years because of the demand generated by two tiny businesses (SD and SR). And you are just plainly ignorant if you do not understand how huge is the potential growth regardless of BTC being banned or semi-illegal. Give it time, and then we will discuss.

Just because the value has gone up to 130 , it doesn't mean there are 10x users than last year or we're doing 10x transactions.

Currently the price is based more on "what bitcoin will be" than is actual value.

True, the current price is based on speculation. The "natural" demand of BTC brought us to $14, and based on current electricity costs (miners won't sell their coins at a loss) the speculation-less price for 1BTC it's around $50. This is hard math, not speculation. Just check the numbers yourself.

Difficulty and thus electricity cost per BTC will keep increasing, and "real economy" around BTC will grow accordingly, as it always did: if there is a global ban (almost impossible), we will still have black market economy + "idealists" using it, and that will lead to steady (but slower) growth. If there is an US ban (unlikely at this point, but a possibility somewhere in the future), we will still have increasing demand all over the rest of the world, which will lead us to exponential growth. If there is no ban at all, even better for us all.

There are only two lethal threats to Bitcoin:

a) the development of a superior crypto-currency with the same core characteristics (trust-free and decentralized and thus immune to Government attacks)
b) a fatal flaw in the technology of the protocol (highly unlikely at this point)

Every other scenario has been analyzed, and Bitcoin is designed to rise stronger from those scenarios, including a Government ban.

Actually, he does understand all that. He is here to spread FUD. You can see his alter ego's quite transparently. He is just trying to bring fear into the BTC equation.

I only reply to bring some as-semblance of balance to those reading his posts - so as they know they are FUD. We all do a pretty good job of that with Coinseeker.

[rezurect]

Replies:12183    Views:280965
Where better for Fear mongering than here?
Not that it has any bearing on reality.

[notme]

That makes sense , my bad.

No worries.

[Its About Sharing]

I often wonder why it is that some violently fight the idea of any aspect of human interaction being unregulated by some sort of central authority. Why is that? Not being able to conceive of such arrangements working due to lack of imagination? General mistrust of people? Sincere belief that everything under the sun just works out better if we have a single set of rules enforced by deadly force? Honestly, I don't really get it.

I'm happy to see a concept like Bitcoin coming along and (so far) proving that free human interaction is not only possible, but desirable.

Also to all those people wanting Bitcoin (and everything else) to submit to regulation: there is a number of people (like me) who desire freedom from regulation. Due to moral/ethical considerations or due to their conviction that plurality of options and freedom to experiment ultimately bring about better results and stability. This number keeps growing with every disaster brought about by regulation and central planning. Perhaps one day we will reach a critical mass of people desiring freedom and being willing and able to take responsibility for it.

As long as there is no choice and no option for people not wanting to submit, all we really have tyranny.

I think Human history (and those that control it) have give people the idea that we, humans, are inherently bad. That is false, but when you control the past and present, you have a way of effecting the future. But, it does appear we are coming out of that mindset. This learning takes some time. 

The regulation part is just terrible - in some ways it does protect us but clearly in other ways it imprisons us (and perhaps that is the idea.) Just look at how much money it costs to get involved in money transmitting/trading - by just the cost it excludes small companies (who often bring innovation). Look at large companies involved in the drug trade - HSBC (8 billion laundered?), Wachovia (100's of Billions laundered), CIA - - it is clear regulation is not protecting many people but the criminals themselves. Sort of like being trapped in a matrix within a matrix. But again, we are coming out of it...

[niothor]

The moment we free ourselves from the tyranny of the goverment and become free...

I'm selling you my laptop and all my bitcoins for a bow , 10 arrows and a blanket.


Edit : till then i'm offering my btc at a 150$ rate.