Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

doom and gloom, everywhere I look.

Stay realistic, people. The current downtrend didn't come completely as a surprise, and I won't pretend to know where exactly it stops.

But 70 isn't gonna happen today, at least not on the current trajectory.

[1713457581]

1713457581

[1713457581]

1713457581

[1713457581]

1713457581

[niothor]

doom and gloom, everywhere I look.

Stay realistic, people. The current downtrend didn't come completely as a surprise, and I won't pretend to know where exactly it stops.

But 70 isn't gonna happen today, at least not on the current trajectory.

Tomorrow?

[oda.krell]

doom and gloom, everywhere I look.

Stay realistic, people. The current downtrend didn't come completely as a surprise, and I won't pretend to know where exactly it stops.

But 70 isn't gonna happen today, at least not on the current trajectory.

Tomorrow?

[sarc]

doom and gloom, everywhere I look.

Stay realistic, people. The current downtrend didn't come completely as a surprise, and I won't pretend to know where exactly it stops.

But 70 isn't gonna happen today, at least not on the current trajectory.

Tomorrow?

on the current trajectory, tomorrow's about right...

[oda.krell]

[...]

on the current trajectory, tomorrow's about right...

You just started trading, right? I'm not going to pretend that I'm an old hand at this, but at least I learned that you don't simply draw a line through the points of the past 12 hour, expecting it will continue like that for another 12.

When I say "trajectory", I take into consideration the momentum of the current down trend. It might reignite, but right now, it seems we've entered a calmer period. If it continues that way, we'll see spikes of maybe +/- 5 USD around where we are now, but, no, not "70".

[sarc]

[...]

on the current trajectory, tomorrow's about right...

You just started trading, right? I'm not going to pretend that I'm an old hand at this, but at least I learned that you don't simply draw a line through the points of the past 12 hour, expecting it will continue like that for another 12.

When I say "trajectory", I take into consideration the momentum of the current down trend. It might reignite, but right now, it seems we've entered a calmer period. If it continues that way, we'll see spikes of maybe +/- 5 USD around where we are now, but, no, not "70".

nope.

and trajectory means what it means, no matter how you might define it. But I guess you meant - given how bitcoin tends to move normally, I don't expect it to reach 70 today. But these are strange times...

[niothor]

[...]

on the current trajectory, tomorrow's about right...

You just started trading, right? I'm not going to pretend that I'm an old hand at this, but at least I learned that you don't simply draw a line through the points of the past 12 hour, expecting it will continue like that for another 12.

When I say "trajectory", I take into consideration the momentum of the current down trend. It might reignite, but right now, it seems we've entered a calmer period. If it continues that way, we'll see spikes of maybe +/- 5 USD around where we are now, but, no, not "70".

Read your post and your predictions backwards  and.... you should leave the irony aside

[Ultraviolet]

This current bearish trend isn't going to stop until the price falls to the point that the market regains its previously reasonable trading volume. Most of May was characterized by no-volume "stability", with the price only floating 110+ because of systematic large buys by major players coupled with bot action producing an illusion of trading volume during periods of no-volume. The roll to 135 was nothing like the roll from 110-165 in post-crash April, where volume was high, there was constant trading, and Gox still had a deep verification queue with millions in fiat being wired while almost nothing got withdrawn.

This fall will have a lot of bull traps with people feeling that lower lows are cheap coins.

BTC was absolutely not post-bubble "stable" 110+ amidst no trading volume after trading for the rest of its existence sub $50. It's just currently an incredibly manipulated market where anyone with a few mega can have a huge short-term influence that produces illusions for smaller positions and makes money for their own.

[shad0wbitz]

This current bearish trend isn't going to stop until the price falls to the point that the market regains its previously reasonable trading volume. Most of May was characterized by no-volume "stability", with the price only floating 110+ because of systematic large buys by major players coupled with bot action producing an illusion of trading volume during periods of no-volume. The roll to 135 was nothing like the roll from 110-165 in post-crash April, where volume was high, there was constant trading, and Gox still had a deep verification queue with millions in fiat being wired while almost nothing got withdrawn.

This fall will have a lot of bull traps with people feeling that lower lows are cheap coins.

BTC was absolutely not post-bubble "stable" 110+ amidst no trading volume after trading for the rest of its existence sub $50. It's just currently an incredibly manipulated market where anyone with a few mega can have a huge short-term influence that produces illusions for smaller positions and makes money for their own.

+1

Couldn't have put it in a more clear and succinct maner. The bubble popped, but the price is still artificial. Real exponential price of Bitcoin is around 45+ USD. This is typical of bubbles bursting. Big chunk of the price goes down relatively fast, but then there is a slow downward trend that can take months until we reach the real price again.

[oda.krell]

[...]

Read your post and your predictions backwards  and.... you should leave the irony aside

You mean:

The very worst I can see is approaching 50 again, and more realistically, that we'll test 100 a few more times in the coming month(s).

this morning. Or 2 days ago:

In any case, I don't think we'll fall back to 50, and certainly not sub-30. I can see us going back to 60-80, though, I admit :/

Or maybe the topic I created ~5 days ago, titled

50 -> 80 -> 100 -> 115? 110? Call me again if we go below 100 again.

in which I said that people from both sides are way too fast to declare "up uP UP" or "down Down DOWN", and that the next important level to break before talking about 80, or even 50 USD coins would be 100.

Anyway. Do as you please. Just learn to read, maybe.

[niothor]

[...]

Read your post and your predictions backwards  and.... you should leave the irony aside

You mean:

The very worst I can see is approaching 50 again, and more realistically, that we'll test 100 a few more times in the coming month(s).

this morning. Or 2 days ago:

In any case, I don't think we'll fall back to 50, and certainly not sub-30. I can see us going back to 60-80, though, I admit :/

Or maybe the topic I created ~5 days ago, titled

50 -> 80 -> 100 -> 115? 110? Call me again if we go below 100 again.

in which I said that people from both sides are way too fast to declare "up uP UP" or "down Down DOWN", and that the next important level to break before talking about 80, or even 50 USD coins would be 100.

Anyway. Do as you please. Just learn to read, maybe.

Again the irony ,  but go a bit deeper , with your research , something about the 120 not to be tested again ever?
Besides , when I told you about your prediction don't you think I looked in your history before?

Start editing..

Actually , that was an insult , and that brings you to an even lower level in my eyes.

 

[ft73]

This current bearish trend isn't going to stop until the price falls to the point that the market regains its previously reasonable trading volume. Most of May was characterized by no-volume "stability", with the price only floating 110+ because of systematic large buys by major players coupled with bot action producing an illusion of trading volume during periods of no-volume. The roll to 135 was nothing like the roll from 110-165 in post-crash April, where volume was high, there was constant trading, and Gox still had a deep verification queue with millions in fiat being wired while almost nothing got withdrawn.

This fall will have a lot of bull traps with people feeling that lower lows are cheap coins.

BTC was absolutely not post-bubble "stable" 110+ amidst no trading volume after trading for the rest of its existence sub $50. It's just currently an incredibly manipulated market where anyone with a few mega can have a huge short-term influence that produces illusions for smaller positions and makes money for their own.

Absolutely agree.

[niothor]

Finally , 109 , I was running out of popcorn.

[bzzard]

[Abandon]

[Pale Phoenix]

This current bearish trend isn't going to stop until the price falls to the point that the market regains its previously reasonable trading volume. Most of May was characterized by no-volume "stability", with the price only floating 110+ because of systematic large buys by major players coupled with bot action producing an illusion of trading volume during periods of no-volume. The roll to 135 was nothing like the roll from 110-165 in post-crash April, where volume was high, there was constant trading, and Gox still had a deep verification queue with millions in fiat being wired while almost nothing got withdrawn.

This fall will have a lot of bull traps with people feeling that lower lows are cheap coins.

BTC was absolutely not post-bubble "stable" 110+ amidst no trading volume after trading for the rest of its existence sub $50. It's just currently an incredibly manipulated market where anyone with a few mega can have a huge short-term influence that produces illusions for smaller positions and makes money for their own.

Great post. I'm beginning to come around to this way of thinking. Low volume has signaled a lack of enthusiasm, and we've lost a few easy ways to get new money into coin (Bitfloor, Dwolla, etc.) over a short period of time.

[MAbtc]

3 lower highs, 3 lower lows. So the wedge did break downward. How far will we go?!  

[ineededausername]

Whale who sold 25k must be happy right about now.

[niothor]

Whale who sold 25k must be happy right about now.

Well , if he buys back he will make a lot of people happy...
Or isn't money made just for that?

[nmersulypnem]

This current bearish trend isn't going to stop until the price falls to the point that the market regains its previously reasonable trading volume. Most of May was characterized by no-volume "stability", with the price only floating 110+ because of systematic large buys by major players coupled with bot action producing an illusion of trading volume during periods of no-volume. The roll to 135 was nothing like the roll from 110-165 in post-crash April, where volume was high, there was constant trading, and Gox still had a deep verification queue with millions in fiat being wired while almost nothing got withdrawn.

This fall will have a lot of bull traps with people feeling that lower lows are cheap coins.

BTC was absolutely not post-bubble "stable" 110+ amidst no trading volume after trading for the rest of its existence sub $50. It's just currently an incredibly manipulated market where anyone with a few mega can have a huge short-term influence that produces illusions for smaller positions and makes money for their own.

Great post. I'm beginning to come around to this way of thinking. Low volume has signaled a lack of enthusiasm, and we've lost a few easy ways to get new money into coin (Bitfloor, Dwolla, etc.) over a short period of time.

It's not just that.  Low volume is an indication that the actual Bitcoin economy isn't running.  The only activity I see on the depth window are the last remaining trading bots.  I mean, how is someone supposed to get a few bucks into MtGox to buy something on SilkRoad or wherever?  The Bitcoin price went from being 99% speculation, to being 99.999% speculation.  I'd love to know how SilkRoad sales have been impacted with the closure of LR, MtGox-Dwolla, etc...  At this rate, it's a long long way down...