Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitPirate]

Another likely scenario is that we just hover around here for another 3 months with minimal volume, growing back some balls.

... Of course, when we finally break out to the upside, rally will be killed off by a dumper within a week before a new trend can be decisively established. :-(

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[sarc]

Another likely scenario is that we just hover around here for another 3 months with minimal volume, growing back some balls.

I don't pretend to be able to see the future, but I can sometimes see things that have no future. ^^this.


free yourself brother...

[BitPirate]

I find it easier to pay for some things with Bitcoin than fiat. It only takes a couple of clicks.

The key is how you buy the bitcoins. I happen to have some, so it's easier. Buying them is also still relatively easy. If I had to wire money each time, it wouldn't be worth it.

In terms of *receiving* money, I'd rather have BTC (for the aforementioned reason) than USD or other fiat, and prefer BTC over PayPal or other reversible payment methods.

It's still small, but the potential is there. Try to look into the future a bit.

Yeah the key is how you buy the bitcoins. I am talking from a perspective of a person watching BBC not a BTC miner. Why would a person watching BBC want to buy something with BTC when they can use what they have already (traditional methods) - the only reason to go into BTC for them, other than speculation is to use it on silkroad. At least for now, BTC poses no advantages to them to justify fiat -> btc -> service/good route, of course with exception of silkroad. (I am not talking about store of value and speculation here)

Store of value is directly relevant to the discussion though. They are not mutually exclusive factors. Because if you own BTC you are (obviously) more likely to spend BTC. If BTC increases in value you are more likely to jump through the hoops to buy. If more people own BTC there will be more opportunities to spend it.

Currently it's a chicken and egg argument -- which is one that neither of us can win. It appears you've been trying to win that argument since day one on this forum. You're wasting your breath.

[sarc]

EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?

I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.

The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.

Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?

[Miz4r]

The case for a trend reversal

Everyone is a bear now, who is left to sell?

100 is an important psychological barrier, it could be the point where the trend reverses

Whales will buy back when they give up hope of seeing double digits, once buying pressure starts to build up it will be the signal they need to buy back in which will bring in more whales

Trend of higher lows since the crash: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103 - 105?

[BitPirate]

EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?

I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.

The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.

Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?

Well, we could crash to 50 then have another long slow slide. For BTC to be an attractive large investment, the future price target must be high above the current level. If those investors aren't buying in now, nothing says they will buy in at $50. And if you're looking for increased mass adoption, a dump to $50 at s time when it is difficult for them to transfer in money, will NOT have the punters queuing up to buy.

[ChartBuddy]

[phoenix1]

EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?

I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.

The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.

Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?

Well, we could crash to 50 then have another long slow slide. For BTC to be an attractive large investment, the future price target must be high above the current level. If those investors aren't buying in now, nothing says they will buy in at $50. And if you're looking for increased mass adoption, a dump to $50 at s time when it is difficult for them to transfer in money, will NOT have the punters queuing up to buy.

Agreed ... no guarantee of the bounce if we crashed as there would still likely be this 'overhang'. And it would likely put many people off.
Re investors, the biggest problem IMO is not price, it is liquidity. There is no out ... thats why we are experiencing what is happening now.

[sarc]

EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?

I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.

The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.

Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?

Well, we could crash to 50 then have another long slow slide. For BTC to be an attractive large investment, the future price target must be high above the current level. If those investors aren't buying in now, nothing says they will buy in at $50. And if you're looking for increased mass adoption, a dump to $50 at s time when it is difficult for them to transfer in money, will NOT have the punters queuing up to buy.

Agreed ... no guarantee of the bounce if we crashed as there would still likely be this 'overhang'. And it would likely put many people off.
Re investors, the biggest problem IMO is not price, it is liquidity. There is no out ... thats why we are experiencing what is happening now.

Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!

[gizmoh]

The case for a trend reversal

Everyone is a bear now, who is left to sell?

100 is an important psychological barrier, it could be the point where the trend reverses

Whales will buy back when they give up hope of seeing double digits, once buying pressure starts to build up it will be the signal they need to buy back in which will bring in more whales

Trend of higher lows since the crash: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103 - 105?

Maybe you are not aware of the  number of coins mined: 11,259,425 v/s the 20,000 of that 105-106 wall
 
True 100 is psychological barrier , but it doesn't imply it can hold if there is not enough buyers/Fiat able to hold that price.

Whales lead the way, not the small fish,they give the signal not the way around. Remember all crashes were stopped by massive buy back which is nonexistent now. If there is no buying pressure, you'll get your signal.

[phoenix1]

Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!

I tend to agree with you that we are in the now in long slow slide phase of bubble deflation (slow in Bitcoin terms could mean anything!)

Glad you apologised for the chart ... I have put my compass away  

[sarc]

Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!

I tend to agree with you that we are in the now in long slow slide phase of bubble deflation (slow in Bitcoin terms could mean anything!)

Glad you apologised for the chart ... I have put my compass away  

I know seeing it is painful for some folk. 

[lucas.sev]

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

[ChartBuddy]

[phoenix1]

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

I challenge you to do that ! People talk about Bitcoins connection to drugs (yawn) ... the real drug is the Bitcoin price

[sarc]

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

As I remember people saying when the price was skyrocketing but other were still denying it was a bubble:

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, ...

free yourself!

[prof7bit]

Two possible bearish targets:

(the lower pink line is a parallel to the one connecting the tops)

[Rampion]

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

If you are interested only in BTC going up up up, it may be the smartest thing indeed.

I find funny how all the ones singing the "BTC is only useful for Silk Road" song are noobs that probably came into BTC because it was going to the freaking moon, and they wanted fiat profit. Then, the BTC bubble bursted and entered the slow deflation, so they are bitter and sound butthurt, and keep saying that the only use of BTC are drugs and speculation, and unfortunately (for them) they were late in order to tenfold their investment speculating.

Really man, all this is so 2011. Exactly the same arguments.

If you are in this for profit, zoom out and think that the price was $0.07 in 2010. And $2 in November 2011. And $10ish just 6 months ago.

If you are in this because it's more than fiat profits, think that freedom is much more important than convenience. Screw micropayments. Bitcoin is here to help you to be free.

[phoenix1]

Two possible bearish targets:

(the lower pink line is a parallel to the one connecting the tops)

FUCK ME ! And I thought I was bearish ...

[zebedee]

This is what I think I know  :

1) The blockchain essentially a decentralised, encrypted ledger

[...]

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